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Demand for football and intramatch winning probability: an essay on the glorious uncertainty of sports

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  • Jean-Marc Falter
  • Christophe Perignon

Abstract

The aims of this study are (i) to identify the main determinants of the demand for French Premiere Division football matches using all matches played during the 1997/1998 season, (ii) to estimate a team-specific probability of success, and (iii) to propose an updating process for the intramatch winning probability. The methodology is tested empirically over an out-of-sample data set using matches of the 1998/1999 season. The results show that football appears to be an inferior product affected by both socio-economic and football variables, and that the main football variables have only a tenuous explanatory power concerning the final outcome of a given match.

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  • Jean-Marc Falter & Christophe Perignon, 2000. "Demand for football and intramatch winning probability: an essay on the glorious uncertainty of sports," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(13), pages 1757-1765.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:32:y:2000:i:13:p:1757-1765
    DOI: 10.1080/000368400421101
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    1. S. M. Dobson & J. A. Goddard, 1996. "The Demand for Football in the Regions of England and Wales," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 443-453.
    2. Bruce Walker, 1986. "The Demand for Professional League Football and the Success of Football League Teams: Some City Size Effects," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 23(3), pages 209-219, June.
    3. Peel, David A & Thomas, Dennis A, 1992. "The Demand for Football: Some Evidence on Outcome Uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 323-331.
    4. Stefan Szymanski & Ron Smith, 2010. "The English Football Industry: Profit, Performance and Industrial Structure," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Football Economics and Policy, chapter 1, pages 1-26, Palgrave Macmillan.
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