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Demand for football and intramatch winning probability: an essay on the glorious uncertainty of sports

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  • Jean-Marc Falter
  • Christophe Perignon

Abstract

The aims of this study are (i) to identify the main determinants of the demand for French Premiere Division football matches using all matches played during the 1997/1998 season, (ii) to estimate a team-specific probability of success, and (iii) to propose an updating process for the intramatch winning probability. The methodology is tested empirically over an out-of-sample data set using matches of the 1998/1999 season. The results show that football appears to be an inferior product affected by both socio-economic and football variables, and that the main football variables have only a tenuous explanatory power concerning the final outcome of a given match.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Marc Falter & Christophe Perignon, 2000. "Demand for football and intramatch winning probability: an essay on the glorious uncertainty of sports," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(13), pages 1757-1765.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:32:y:2000:i:13:p:1757-1765 DOI: 10.1080/000368400421101
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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Di Domizio & Raul Caruso, 2015. "Hooliganism and Demand for Football in Italy: Attendance and Counterviolence Policy Evaluation," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 16(2), pages 123-137, May.
    2. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00971782 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Kevin Alavy & Alison Gaskell & Stephanie Leach & Stefan Szymanski, 2006. "On the Edge of Your Seat: Demand for Football on Television and the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis," Working Papers 0631, International Association of Sports Economists;North American Association of Sports Economists.
    4. Egon Franck & Stephan Nüesch, 2007. "The Role of Patriotism in Explaining TV Audience of National Team Games - Evidence from Four International Tournaments," Working Papers 0014, University of Zurich, Center for Research in Sports Administration (CRSA).
    5. Drayer, Joris & Rascher, Daniel A. & McEvoy, Chad D., 2012. "An examination of underlying consumer demand and sport pricing using secondary market data," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 448-460.
    6. Rottmann, Horst & Seitz, Franz, 2006. "Warum gehen die Leute in die Fußballstadien? Eine empirische Analyse der Fußball-Bundesliga," Weidener Diskussionspapiere 1, University of Applied Sciences Amberg-Weiden (OTH).
    7. Budzinski, Oliver & Feddersen, Arne, 2015. "Grundlagen der Sportnachfrage: Theorie und Empirie der Einflussfaktoren auf die Zuschauernachfrage," Ilmenau Economics Discussion Papers 94, Ilmenau University of Technology, Institute of Economics.
    8. Ferda HALICIOGLU, 2005. "Forecasting the Professional Team Sporting Events: Evidence from Euro 2000 and 2004 Football Tournaments," Industrial Organization 0508001, EconWPA.
    9. Scelles, Nicolas & Duran, Christophe & Bonnal, Liliane & Goyeau, Daniel & Andreff, Wladimir, 2016. "Do all sporting prizes have a significant positive impact on attendance in a European national football league? Competitive intensity in the French Ligue 1," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 3, pages 82-107, June.
    10. Kevin Alavy & Alison Gaskell & Stephanie Leach & Stefan Szymanski, 2010. "On the Edge of Your Seat: Demand for Football on Television and the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis," International Journal of Sport Finance, Fitness Information Technology, vol. 5(2), pages 75-95, May.
    11. repec:cta:jcppxx:2173 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Schreyer, Dominik & Schmidt, Sascha L. & Torgler, Benno, 2016. "Against all odds? Exploring the role of game outcome uncertainty in season ticket holders’ stadium attendance demand," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, pages 192-217.
    13. Wladimir Andreff, 2014. "Building Blocks for a Disequilibrium Model of a European Team Sports League," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00971782, HAL.
    14. Dorian Owen, 2014. "Measurement of competitive balance and uncertainty of outcome," Chapters,in: Handbook on the Economics of Professional Football, chapter 3, pages 41-59 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Drayer, Joris & Shapiro, Stephen L., 2011. "An examination into the factors that influence consumers’ perceptions of value," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 389-398.
    16. Jaume García & Plácido Rodríguez, 2013. "The determinants of football match attendance in Spanish football: an empirical analysis," Chapters,in: The Econometrics of Sport, chapter 9, pages 154-166 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Stephan Lenor & Liam J. A. Lenten & Jordi McKenzie, 2016. "Rivalry Effects and Unbalanced Schedule Optimisation in the Australian Football League," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 49(1), pages 43-69, August.
    18. Helmut Dietl & Egon Franck, 2006. "Warum Investitionswettläufe und wachsende Erlösasymmetrien das Geschäftsmodell des europäischen Profifußballs zunehmend belasten," Working Papers 0045, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU).
    19. Richard Cox, 2005. "Bid Increments in Second-Price Sealed Bid Auctions," Microeconomics 0506008, EconWPA.
    20. Y.E. Akgündüz & M.R. van den Berg, 2013. "Make or buy? Human capital accumulation strategies in European club football," Working Papers 13-17, Utrecht School of Economics.
    21. Barajas, Angel, 2004. "Modelo de valoración de clubes de fútbol basado en los factores clave de su negocio
      [Valuation model for football clubs based on the key factors of their business]
      ," MPRA Paper 13158, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Leif Brandes & Egon Franck & Stephan Nuesch, 2006. "Local Heroes and Superstars - An Empirical Analysis of Star Attraction in German Soccer," Working Papers 0007, University of Zurich, Center for Research in Sports Administration (CRSA), revised 2007.
    23. Barajas, Angel & Crolley, Liz, 2005. "A model to explain support in Spanish football," MPRA Paper 3235, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Papahristodoulou, Christos, 2007. "An analysis of Champions League match statistics," MPRA Paper 3605, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Raul Caruso & Marco Di Domizio, 2012. "Domanda Di Calcio E Violenza Negli Stadi: Un’Analisi Panel Sulla Serie A," Rivista di Diritto ed Economia dello Sport, Centro di diritto e business dello Sport, vol. 8(2), pages 41-66, settembre.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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