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Demand for football and intramatch winning probability: an essay on the glorious uncertainty of sports

  • Jean-Marc Falter
  • Christophe Perignon

The aims of this study are (i) to identify the main determinants of the demand for French Premiere Division football matches using all matches played during the 1997/1998 season, (ii) to estimate a team-specific probability of success, and (iii) to propose an updating process for the intramatch winning probability. The methodology is tested empirically over an out-of-sample data set using matches of the 1998/1999 season. The results show that football appears to be an inferior product affected by both socio-economic and football variables, and that the main football variables have only a tenuous explanatory power concerning the final outcome of a given match.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 32 (2000)
Issue (Month): 13 ()
Pages: 1757-1765

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:32:y:2000:i:13:p:1757-1765
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