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Research on the Prediction of the likely Winners of the Euro 2008 Football Tournament

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  • Halicioglu, Ferda

Abstract

The objective of this research is to provide a statistical measurement to predict the likely winners of international football tournaments with particular reference to the Euro 2008 football tournament. This research argues that there exists a positive relationship between the competitive balance and success in international football tournaments. The level of the competitive balance in a domestic football league is measured by the seasonal coefficients of variation (CV) of the end-of-season points. The CV values are employed as ranking indicators between the contesting countries in international football tournaments to predict the likely winners. The seasonal CV values are computed from the top divison football leagues of participating countries of Euro 1996, Euro 2000, Euro 2004, and Euro 2008, in order to rank and to predict the likely winner of these tournaments. The results indicate that the higher the level of domestic competition the better chance of winning an international football tournament. The CV ranking is also compared to UEFA ranking and to the odds of some well known bookmakers in predicting the likely winners of the Euro 2008 football tournament. On the basis of the overall results, this research predicts that the likely winners of the Euro 2008 football tournament would be France, Spain or Germany.

Suggested Citation

  • Halicioglu, Ferda, 2008. "Research on the Prediction of the likely Winners of the Euro 2008 Football Tournament," MPRA Paper 15567, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:15567
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ferda HALICIOGLU, 2005. "The Degree Of Competition In The European Football Leagues: A Statistical Approach," Others 0508001, EconWPA.
    2. Jeffery Borland, 2003. "Demand for Sport," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 478-502, Winter.
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    6. John Goddard & Peter J. Sloane, 2005. "Economics of sport," Chapters,in: Economics Uncut, chapter 12 Edward Elgar Publishing.
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    8. Ferda Halicioglu, 2005. "Can We Predict The Outcome Of The International Football Tournaments : The Case Of Euro 2000?," Microeconomics 0503008, EconWPA.
    9. Kelly Goossens, 2006. "Competitive Balance in European Football - Comparison by Adapting Measures: National Measure of Seasonal Imbalance and Top 3," IASE Conference Papers 0620, International Association of Sports Economists.
    10. Peel, David A & Thomas, Dennis A, 1988. "Outcome Uncertainty and the Demand for Football: An Analysis of Match Attendances in the English Football League," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 35(3), pages 242-249, August.
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    12. Sloane, Peter J, 1971. "The Economics of Professional Football: The Football Club as a Utility Maximiser," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 18(2), pages 121-146, June.
    13. Joshua Utt & Rodney Fort, 2002. "Pitfalls to Measuring Competitive Balance With Gini Coefficients," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 3(4), pages 367-373, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2012. "An empirical study of relationship between FIFA world ranking and domestic football competition level: the case of Turkey," MPRA Paper 35662, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Competitive balance; Football; Ranking; UEFA; Sports forecasts.;

    JEL classification:

    • L8 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies

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