Crop-Based Biofuel Production with Acreage Competition and Uncertainty
This paper examines the role of uncertaincrude oil prices, uncertain crop yields, andcompetition for acreage on corn, soybean, andswitchgrass prices under biofuel production mandates.We find enforcement of the cellulosic mandateis costly in that it raises equilibrium prices of all threecrops through competition for acreage. However,crude oil prices largely determine industry profitabilityeven in the face of high crop prices. Further wefind that uncertainty in crude oil prices and cropyields causes higher corn, soybean, and switchgrassprices compared to a baseline with no uncertainty.
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|Date of creation:||04 Feb 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Land Economics, November 2011, vol. 87 no. 4, pp. 610-617|
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- Searchinger, Timothy & Heimlich, Ralph & Houghton, R. A. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Tokgoz, Simla & Hayes, Dermot J. & Yu, Hun-Hsiang, 2008. "Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change," Staff General Research Papers 12881, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, 09.
- Elobeid, Amani & Tokgoz, Simla & Hayes, Dermot J. & Babcock, Bruce A. & Hart, Chad E., 2007.
"Long-Run Impact of Corn-Based Ethanol on the Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Sectors: A Preliminary Assessment, The,"
Staff General Research Papers
12717, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Amani Elobeid & Simla Tokgoz & Dermot J. Hayes & Bruce A. Babcock & Chad E. Hart, 2006. "Long-Run Impact of Corn-Based Ethanol on the Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Sectors: A Preliminary Assessment, The," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 06-bp49, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
- Amani Elobeid & Simla Tokgoz & Dermot J. Hayes & Bruce A. Babcock & Chad E. Hart, 2006. "Long-Run Impact of Corn-Based Ethanol on the Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Sectors: A Preliminary Assessment, The," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications 06-bp49, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
- Shapouri, Hosein & Duffield, James A. & Graboski, Michael S., 1995. "Estimating the Net Energy Balance of Corn Ethanol," Agricultural Economics Reports 34005, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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