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Do Agricultural Market Advisory Services Beat The Market? Evidence From The Corn And Soybean Markets Over 1995-1997

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  • Irwin, Scott H.
  • Jackson, Thomas E.
  • Good, Darrel L.

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to address two basic performance questions for market advisory services: 1) Do market advisory services, on average, outperform an appropriate market benchmark? and 2) Do market advisory services exhibit persistence in their performance from year-to-year? Data on corn and soybean net price received for advisory services, as reported by the AgMAS Project, are available for the 1995, 1996 and 1997 marketing years. Performance test results suggest that, on average, market advisory services exhibit a small ability to "beat the market" for the 1995 through 1997 corn and soybean crops. This conclusion is somewhat sensitive to the type of performance test and market benchmark considered. The predictability results provide little evidence that future advisory service pricing performance can be predicted from past performance. When services are grouped by performance quantile, some evidence of predictability is found for the poorest performing services, but not for top performing services.

Suggested Citation

  • Irwin, Scott H. & Jackson, Thomas E. & Good, Darrel L., 1999. "Do Agricultural Market Advisory Services Beat The Market? Evidence From The Corn And Soybean Markets Over 1995-1997," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14789, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:uiucrr:14789
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14789
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Ritter, Jay R, 1991. " The Long-run Performance of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 3-27, March.
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    5. Kastens, Terry L. & Schroeder, Ted C., 1996. "Efficiency Tests Of July Kansas City Wheat Futures," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 21(02), December.
    6. Andrew Metrick, 1999. "Performance Evaluation with Transactions Data: The Stock Selection of Investment Newsletters," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1743-1775, October.
    7. Jackson, Thomas E. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 1998. "1996 Pricing Performance Of Market Advisory Services For Corn And Soybeans," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14787, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    8. Jackson, Thomas E. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 1997. "1995 Pricing Performance Of Market Advisory Services For Corn And Soybeans," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14790, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    9. Schroeder, Ted C. & Parcell, Joseph L. & Kastens, Terry L. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C., 1998. "Perceptions Of Marketing Strategies: Producers Versus Extension Economists," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(01), July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Jackson, Thomas E., 2000. "The Private Sector Approach To Grain Marketing: The Case Of Agricultural Market Advisory Services," 2000 Producer marketing and Risk Management Conference, January 13-14, Orlando, FL 19579, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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    Keywords

    Marketing;

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