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Performance Evaluation with Transactions Data: The Stock Selection of Investment Newsletters

Author

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  • Andrew Metrick

    (Harvard University and NBER)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the equity-portfolio recommendations made by investment newsletters. Overall, there is no significant evidence of superior stock-picking ability for this sample of 153 newsletters. Moreover, there is no evidence of abnormal short-run performance persistence ("hot hands"). The comprehensive and bias-free transactions database also allows for insights into the precision of performance evaluation. Using a measure of precision defined in the paper, a transactions-based approach yields a median improvement of 10 percent over a corresponding factor model. This compares favorably with the precision gained by adding factors to the CAPM. Copyright The American Finance Association 1999.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Metrick, 1999. "Performance Evaluation with Transactions Data: The Stock Selection of Investment Newsletters," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1743-1775, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:54:y:1999:i:5:p:1743-1775
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    Cited by:

    1. Irwin, Scott H. & Jackson, Thomas E. & Good, Darrel L., 1999. "Do Agricultural Market Advisory Services Beat The Market? Evidence From The Corn And Soybean Markets Over 1995-1997," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14789, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    2. Tarek Zaher, 2017. "The Value of Active Investment Strategies," NFI Working Papers 2017-WP-02, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    3. Christopher N. Avery & Judith A. Chevalier & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 2016. "The "CAPS" Prediction System and Stock Market Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 1363-1381.
    4. Capocci, Daniel & Hubner, Georges, 2004. "Analysis of hedge fund performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 55-89, January.
    5. Hackethal, Andreas & Haliassos, Michael & Jappelli, Tullio, 2012. "Financial advisors: A case of babysitters?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 509-524.
    6. Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes & Jackson, Thomas E., 2000. "Do Agricultural Market Advisory Services Beat The Market? Evidence From The Corn And Soybean Markets Over 1995-1998," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14786, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    7. Chance, Don M. & Hemler, Michael L., 2001. "The performance of professional market timers: daily evidence from executed strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 377-411, November.
    8. Irwin, Scott H. & Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes & Good, Darrel L., 2003. "The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans Over 1995-2001," AgMAS Project Research Reports 37510, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    9. Thomas, Charles P. & Warnock, Francis E. & Wongswan, Jon, 2004. "The Performance of International Equity Portfolios," International Finance Discussion Papers 817, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised Oct 2004.
    10. García, Diego & Urošević, Branko, 2013. "Noise and aggregation of information in large markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 526-549.
    11. Scott Brown & Jose J. Cao-Alvira & Eric Powers, 2013. "Do Investment Newsletters Move Markets?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 42(2), pages 315-338, June.
    12. Paul J. Bolster & Emery A. Trahan & Pinshuo Wang, 2016. "Assessing performance of Morningstar’s star rating system for equity investment," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 4(1), pages 11-22, February.
    13. Leslie A. Jeng & Andrew Metrick & Richard Zeckhauser, 1999. "The Profits to Insider Trading: A Performance-Evaluation Perspective," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1858, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    14. Michael Cooper & Huseyin Gulen, 2006. "Is Time-Series-Based Predictability Evident in Real Time?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1263-1292, May.
    15. Baker, Malcolm & Litov, Lubomir & Wachter, Jessica A. & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2010. "Can Mutual Fund Managers Pick Stocks? Evidence from Their Trades Prior to Earnings Announcements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(05), pages 1111-1131, October.
    16. Bange, Mary M. & Miller, Thomas Jr., 2004. "Return momentum and global portfolio allocations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 429-459, September.
    17. Fellner, Gerlinde & Guth, Werner & Maciejovsky, Boris, 2004. "Illusion of expertise in portfolio decisions: an experimental approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 355-376, November.
    18. Jirik, Mark A. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes & Jackson, Thomas E., 2001. "Do Agricultural Market Advisory Services Beat The Market? Evidence From The Wheat Market Over 1995-1998," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14778, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    19. Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Jackson, Thomas E., 2000. "The Private Sector Approach To Grain Marketing: The Case Of Agricultural Market Advisory Services," 2000 Producer marketing and Risk Management Conference, January 13-14, Orlando, FL 19579, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    20. Andersson, Patric, 2004. "How well do financial experts perform? A review of empirical research on performance of analysts, day-traders, forecasters, fund managers, investors, and stockbrokers," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Business Administration 2004:9, Stockholm School of Economics.
    21. Jirik, Mark A. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Jackson, Thomas E. & Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes, 2000. "The Performance Of Agricultural Market Advisory Services In Marketing Wheat," 2000 Conference, April 17-18 2000, Chicago, Illinois 18928, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    22. Leslie A. Jeng & Andrew Metrick & Richard Zeckhauser, "undated". "Estimating the Returns to Insider Trading," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 19-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    23. Mikhail, Michael B. & Walther, Beverly R. & Willis, Richard H., 2004. "Do security analysts exhibit persistent differences in stock picking ability?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 67-91, October.
    24. Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes & Hagedorn, Lewis A., 2005. "The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans over 1995-2003," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14775, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    25. Loviscek, Anthony L. & Jordan, W. John, 2000. "Stock selection based on Morningstar's ten-year, five-star general equity mutual funds," Financial Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 145-157, 00.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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