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The "CAPS" Prediction System and Stock Market Returns

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  • Avery, Christopher N.
  • Chevalier, Judith
  • Zeckhauser, Richard Jay

Abstract

We study the predictive power of approximately 2.5 million stock picks submitted by individual users to the “CAPS†website run by the Motley Fool company (www.caps.fool.com). These picks prove to be surprisingly informative about future stock prices. Indeed, a strategy of shorting stocks with a disproportionate number of negative picks on the site and buying stocks with a disproportionate number of positive picks produces a return of over nine percent per annum over the sample period. These results are mostly driven by the fact that negative picks on the site strongly predict future stock price declines; positive picks on the site produce returns that are statistically indistinguishable from the market. A Fama French decomposition suggests that these results are largely due to stock-picking rather than style factors or market timing.

Suggested Citation

  • Avery, Christopher N. & Chevalier, Judith & Zeckhauser, Richard Jay, 2011. "The "CAPS" Prediction System and Stock Market Returns," Scholarly Articles 5098427, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  • Handle: RePEc:hrv:hksfac:5098427
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    1. repec:eee:jbfina:v:84:y:2017:i:c:p:25-40 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Alasdair Brown & Dooruj Rambaccussing & James Reade & Giambattista Rossi, 2016. "Using Social Media to Identify Market Inefficiencies: Evidence from Twitter and Betfair," Economics & Management Discussion Papers em-dp2016-01, Henley Business School, Reading University.
    3. Dahlquist, Magnus & Martinez, José Vicente & Söderlind, Paul, 2012. "Individual Investor Activity and Performance," CEPR Discussion Papers 8744, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Alasdair Brown & Dooruj Rambaccussing & J. James Reade & Giambattista Rossi, 2016. "Using Social Media to Identify Market Ine!ciencies: Evidence from Twitter and Betfair," Working Papers 2016-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
    5. Michael Nofer & Oliver Hinz, 2015. "Using Twitter to Predict the Stock Market," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 57(4), pages 229-242, August.
    6. Godfrey Charles-Cadogan, 2012. "Alpha Representation For Active Portfolio Management and High Frequency Trading In Seemingly Efficient Markets," Papers 1206.2662, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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