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The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Wheat Over 1995-2004

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  • Batts, Ryan M.
  • Irwin, Scott
  • Good, Darrel

Abstract

The purpose of this research report is to evaluate the pricing performance of market advisory services for the 1995-2004 wheat crops. Explicit marketing assumptions are applied to the track records in order to produce consistent and comparable results across the different advisory programs. Each of the assumptions are made in order to reflect “real-world” marketing conditions encountered by a representative southwestern Illinois soft red winter wheat producer or a southwest Kansas hard red winter wheat producer. Several key assumptions are: i) with few exceptions, the marketing window for a crop year runs from June 1st before harvest through May 31st following harvest, ii) commercial physical storage costs, as well as interest opportunity costs, are charged to post-harvest sales, iii) brokerage costs are subtracted for futures and options transactions, and iv) Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) marketing loan recommendations made by advisory programs are followed where possible. Following these and other assumptions, the net price received by a subscriber to a market advisory program is calculated for the 1995-2004 wheat crops. Market and farmer benchmarks are developed for the performance evaluations. The results from this study are similar to those obtained by the AgMAS Project in the analysis of market advisory service performance in corn and soybeans.

Suggested Citation

  • Batts, Ryan M. & Irwin, Scott & Good, Darrel, 2009. "The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Wheat Over 1995-2004," AgMAS Project Research Reports 183426, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:uiucrr:183426
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    File URL: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/183426/files/Agmas0901.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Townsend, John P. & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2000. "Cost Of Forward Contracting Hard Red Winter Wheat," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(01), April.
    2. Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes & Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H., 2001. "1999 Pricing Performance Of Market Advisory Servives For Wheat," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14788, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    3. Hikaru Hanawa Peterson & William G. Tomek, 2005. "How much of commodity price behavior can a rational expectations storage model explain?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(3), pages 289-303, November.
    4. Garcia, Philip & Adam, Brian D. & Hauser, Robert J., 1994. "The Use Of Mean-Variance For Commodity Futures And Options Hedging Decisions," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-14, July.
    5. Brorsen, B. Wade & Anderson, Kim B., 1994. "Cash Wheat Marketing: Strategies for Real People," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-10.
    6. Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes & Batts, Ryan M., 2006. "The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans Over 1995-2004," AgMAS Project Research Reports 37513, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    7. Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 2005. "Storage and Commodity Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521023399, October.
    8. Tomek, William G. & Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa, 2000. "Risk Management in Agricultural Markets: A Survey," Staff Papers 121140, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    9. Ani L. Katchova & Mario J. Miranda, 2004. "Two-Step Econometric Estimation of Farm Characteristics Affecting Marketing Contract Decisions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(1), pages 88-102.
    10. Brorsen, B. Wade & Anderson, Kim B., 2001. "Implications of Behavioral Finance for Farmer Marketing Strategy Recommendation," 2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri 18952, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    11. Thompson, Sarahelen R. & Eales, James S. & Seibold, David, 1993. "Comparison Of Liquidity Costs Between The Kansas City And Chicago Wheat Futures Contracts," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-13, December.
    12. Brorsen, B. Wade & Irwin, Scott H., 1996. "Improving The Relevance Of Research On Price Forecasting And Marketing Strategies," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 25(1), April.
    13. Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Jackson, Thomas E., 1998. "Development Of A Market Benchmark Price For Agmas Performance Evaluations," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14783, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    14. Jirik, Mark A. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Jackson, Thomas E. & Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes, 2000. "The 1995 Through 1998 Pricing Performance Of Market Advisory Services For Wheat," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14777, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    15. Jackson, Thomas E. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 1999. "1997 Pricing Performance Of Market Advisory Services For Corn And Soybeans," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14780, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    16. Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes & Batts, Ryan M., 2006. "The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans Over 1995-2004: A Non-Technical Summary," AgMAS Project Research Reports 37456, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    17. Schroeder, Ted C. & Parcell, Joseph L. & Kastens, Terry L. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C., 1998. "Perceptions Of Marketing Strategies: Producers Versus Extension Economists," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-15, July.
    18. Silvina M. Cabrini & Brian G. Stark & Hayri Önal & Scott H. Irwin & Darrel L. Good & João Martines-Filho, 2004. "Efficiency Analysis of Agricultural Market Advisory Services: A Nonlinear Mixed-Integer Programming Approach," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 6(3), pages 237-252, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Webber, Ricky L. & Batts, Ryan M. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2012. "The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Hogs Over 1995-2004," AgMAS Project Research Reports 183429, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    2. Batts, Ryan M. & Brandenberger, Tracy L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2009. "Advisory Service Marketing Profiles for Soft Red Winter Wheat over 1995-2004," AgMAS Project Research Reports 183427, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    3. Batts, Ryan M. & Brandenberger, Tracy L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2009. "Advisory Service Marketing Profiles for Hard Red Winter Wheat over 1995-2004," AgMAS Project Research Reports 183428, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.

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