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Using Satellite Imagery In Kansas Crop Yield And Net Farm Income Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Nivens, Heather D.
  • Kastens, Terry L.
  • Dhuyvetter, Kevin C.

Abstract

Remotely sensed data have been used in the past to predict crop yields. This research attempts to incorporate remotely sensed data into a net farm income projection model. Using in-sample regressions, satellite imagery appears to increase prediction accuracy in the time periods prior to USDA's first crop production estimate for wheat and corn. Remotely sensed data improved model performance more in the western regions of the state than in the eastern regions. However, in a jackknife out-of-sample framework, the satellite imagery appeared to statistically improve only 8 of the 81 models (9 crop reporting districts by 9 forecasting horizons) estimated. Moreover, 41 of the 81 models were statistically better without the satellite imagery data. This indicates that perhaps the functional form of net farm income has not been well-specified since additional information should generally not cause a model to deteriorate.

Suggested Citation

  • Nivens, Heather D. & Kastens, Terry L. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C., 2000. "Using Satellite Imagery In Kansas Crop Yield And Net Farm Income Forecasts," 2000 Conference, April 17-18 2000, Chicago, Illinois 18943, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:ncrtci:18943
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    File URL: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/18943/files/cp00ni01.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Terry L. Kastens & Allen M. Featherstone, 1997. "Federal Agricultural Improvement and Reform Act of 1996: A Kansas Perspective," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 19(2), pages 326-349.
    2. Kastens, Terry L. & Schroeder, Ted C., 1996. "Efficiency Tests Of July Kansas City Wheat Futures," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Garcia, Philip & Hudson, Michael A. & Waller, Mark L., 1988. "The Pricing Efficiency Of Agricultural Futures Markets: An Analysis Of Previous Research Results," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 20(01), July.
    4. Olson, Kent D., 1998. "Net Farm Income Estimated To Drop Precipitously In 1998," Staff Papers 14252, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Larson, James A. & Roberts, Roland K. & English, Burton C. & Larkin, Sherry L. & Marra, Michele C. & Martin, Steven W. & Paxton, Kenneth W. & Reeves, Jeanne M., 2007. "Factors Influencing Adoption of Remotely Sensed Imagery for Site-Specific Management in Cotton Production," 2007 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2007, Mobile, Alabama 34971, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crop Production/Industries;

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