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Optimal Length of Moving Average to Forecast Futures Basis

Author

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  • Hatchett, Robert B.
  • Brorsen, B. Wade
  • Anderson, Kim B.

Abstract

The question addressed in this study is which length of historical moving average provides the best forecast of futures basis. Differences in observed forecast accuracy among the different moving averages are usually less than a cent per bushel, and most are not statistically significant. Further, the search for an optimal length of moving average may be futile since the optimal length depends on how much structural change has occurred. Our recommendation is to use moving averages when there has been no structural change and to use last year’s basis or an alternative approach if the forecaster perceives that a structural change has occurred.

Suggested Citation

  • Hatchett, Robert B. & Brorsen, B. Wade & Anderson, Kim B., 2010. "Optimal Length of Moving Average to Forecast Futures Basis," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(1), April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:61057
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Townsend, John P. & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2000. "Cost Of Forward Contracting Hard Red Winter Wheat," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(01), April.
    2. Taylor, Mykel R. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C. & Kastens, Terry L., 2004. "Incorporating Current Information Into Historical-Average-Based Forecasts To Improve Crop Price Basis Forecasts," 2004 Conference, April 19-20, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri 19022, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    3. Klumpp, Joni M. & Brorsen, B. Wade & Anderson, Kim B., 2007. "Determining Returns to Storage: Does Data Aggregation Matter," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 39(03), December.
    4. Chernov, Mikhail & Ronald Gallant, A. & Ghysels, Eric & Tauchen, George, 2003. "Alternative models for stock price dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 225-257.
    5. Shi‐Miin Liu & B. Wade Brorsen & Charles M. Oellermann & Apul L. Farris, 1994. "Forecasting the nearby basis of live cattle," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 259-273, May.
    6. Naik, Gopal & Leuthold, Raymond M., 1991. "A Note on the Factors Affecting Corn Basis Relationships," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(01), pages 147-153, July.
    7. Hyun Seok Kim & B. Wade Brorsen & Kim B. Anderson, 2010. "Profit Margin Hedging," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(3), pages 638-653.
    8. Diaz, Edgar F. Pebe & Brorsen, B. Wade & Anderson, Kim B. & Richter, Francisca G.-C. & Kenkel, Philip L., 2002. "The Effect Of Rounding On The Probability Distribution Of Regrading In The U.S. Peanut Industry," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 20(1).
    9. Dabin Wang & William G. Tomek, 2007. "Commodity Prices and Unit Root Tests," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(4), pages 873-889.
    10. Kenyon, David E. & Kingsley, Steven E., 1973. "An Analysis of Anticipatory Short Hedging Using Predicted Harvest Basis," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(01), pages 199-203, July.
    11. Seung-Ryong Yang & B. Wade Brorsen, 1992. "Nonlinear Dynamics of Daily Cash Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 74(3), pages 706-715.
    12. B. Wade Brorsen & John Coombs & Kim Anderson, 1995. "The cost of forward contracting wheat," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 349-354.
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    Cited by:

    1. Onel, Gulcan & Karali, Berna, 2014. "Relative Performance of Semi-Parametric Nonlinear Models in Forecasting Basis," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169795, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Marie Coiffard & Laëtitia Guilhot, 2012. "Migrations internationales : la mobilité des Hommes, facteur d'intégration régionale en Asie Orientale ?," Post-Print halshs-00755102, HAL.
    3. Bekkerman, Anton & Brester, Gary W. & Taylor, Mykel, 2016. "Forecasting a Moving Target: The Roles of Quality and Timing for Determining Northern U.S. Wheat Basis," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(1), January.
    4. Lee, Yoonsuk & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2012. "Impacts of Permanent and Transitory Shocks on Optimal Length of Moving Average to Predict Wheat Basis," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 125001, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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