Optimal Length of Moving Average to Forecast Futures Basis
The question addressed in this study is which length of historical moving average provides the best forecast of futures basis. Differences in observed forecast accuracy among the different moving averages are usually less than a cent per bushel, and most are not statistically significant. Further, the search for an optimal length of moving average may be futile since the optimal length depends on how much structural change has occurred. Our recommendation is to use moving averages when there has been no structural change and to use last yearâ€™s basis or an alternative approach if the forecaster perceives that a structural change has occurred.
Volume (Year): 35 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://waeaonline.org/|
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chernov, Mikhail & Ronald Gallant, A. & Ghysels, Eric & Tauchen, George, 2003.
"Alternative models for stock price dynamics,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 225-257.
- Mikhail Chernov & A. Ronald Gallant & Eric Ghysels & George Tauchen, 2002. "Alternative Models for Stock Price Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-58, CIRANO.
- Chernov, Mikhail & Gallant, A. Ronald & Ghysels, Eric & Tauchen, George, 2002. "Alternative Models for Stock Price Dynamic," Working Papers 02-03, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Taylor, Mykel R. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C. & Kastens, Terry L., 2004. "Incorporating Current Information Into Historical-Average-Based Forecasts To Improve Crop Price Basis Forecasts," 2004 Conference, April 19-20, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri 19022, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- Townsend, John P. & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2000.
"Cost Of Forward Contracting Hard Red Winter Wheat,"
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics,
Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(01), April.
- Townsend, John P. & Brorsen, B. Wade, 1997. "Cost of Forward Contracting Hard Red Winter Wheat," 1997 Annual Meeting, July 13-16, 1997, Reno\Sparks, Nevada 35749, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
- Shi‐Miin Liu & B. Wade Brorsen & Charles M. Oellermann & Apul L. Farris, 1994. "Forecasting the nearby basis of live cattle," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 259-273, 05.
- Dabin Wang & William G. Tomek, 2007. "Commodity Prices and Unit Root Tests," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(4), pages 873-889.
- Hyun Seok Kim & B. Wade Brorsen & Kim B. Anderson, 2010.
"Profit Margin Hedging,"
American Journal of Agricultural Economics,
Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(3), pages 638-653.
- Kim, Hyun Seok & Brorsen, B. Wade & Anderson, Kim B., 2007. "Profit Margin Hedging," 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois 37570, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- B. Wade Brorsen & John Coombs & Kim Anderson, 1995. "The cost of forward contracting wheat," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 349-354.
- Klumpp, Joni M. & Brorsen, B. Wade & Anderson, Kim B., 2007. "Determining Returns to Storage: Does Data Aggregation Matter," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 39(03), December.
- Diaz, Edgar F. Pebe & Brorsen, B. Wade & Anderson, Kim B. & Richter, Francisca G.-C. & Kenkel, Philip L., 2002. "The Effect Of Rounding On The Probability Distribution Of Regrading In The U.S. Peanut Industry," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 20(1).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:61057. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.