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Packer Procurement, Structural Change, and Moving Average Basis Forecasts: Lessons from the Fed Dairy Cattle Industry

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  • Pudenz, Christopher C.
  • Schulz, Lee L.

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  • Pudenz, Christopher C. & Schulz, Lee L., 2021. "Packer Procurement, Structural Change, and Moving Average Basis Forecasts: Lessons from the Fed Dairy Cattle Industry," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 46(3), September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:304769
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.304769
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    1. White, Halbert, 2006. "Time-series estimation of the effects of natural experiments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 527-566.
    2. Parcell, Joe L. & Schroeder, Ted C. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C., 2000. "Factors Affecting Live Cattle Basis," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 531-541, December.
    3. Feuz, Dillon M. & Harris, Chad & Bailey, DeeVon & Halverson, Gary, "undated". "Transportation and Quality Adjusted Basis: Does the Law of One Price Hold for Feeder Cattle?," 2008 Annual Meeting, June 23-24, 2008, Big Sky, Montana 42311, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    4. Hatchett, Robert B. & Brorsen, B. Wade & Anderson, Kim B., 2010. "Optimal Length of Moving Average to Forecast Futures Basis," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(01), pages 1-16.
    5. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    6. Taylor, Mykel R. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C. & Kastens, Terry L., 2006. "Forecasting Crop Basis Using Historical Averages Supplemented with Current Market Information," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1-19, December.
    7. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    8. Schulz, Lee L. & Schroeder, Ted C. & Ward, Clement E., 2011. "Trade-Related Policy and Canadian-U.S. Fed Cattle Transactions Basis," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(2), pages 1-13, August.
    9. Shi‐Miin Liu & B. Wade Brorsen & Charles M. Oellermann & Apul L. Farris, 1994. "Forecasting the nearby basis of live cattle," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 259-273, May.
    10. Maples, Joshua G. & Lusk, Jayson L. & Peel, Derrell S., 2018. "Unintended consequences of the quest for increased efficiency in beef cattle: When bigger isn’t better," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 65-73.
    11. Conner Mullally & Jayson L Lusk, 2018. "The Impact of Farm Animal Housing Restrictions on Egg Prices, Consumer Welfare, and Production in California," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(3), pages 649-669.
    12. Tonsor, Glynn T. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C. & Mintert, James R., 2004. "Improving Cattle Basis Forecasting," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 29(2), pages 1-14, August.
    13. Yao, Yi-Ching, 1988. "Estimating the number of change-points via Schwarz' criterion," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 181-189, February.
    14. DeeVon Bailey & B. Wade Brorsen & Chris Fawson, 1993. "Buyer Concentration at Feeder Cattle Auctions," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 15(1), pages 103-119.
    15. James Rude & Marie‐Hélène Felt & Edgar Twine, 2016. "Detecting COOL Impacts on United States–Canada Bilateral Hog and Pork Trade Flows," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 272-288, April.
    16. Tonsor, Glynn T. & Mollohan, Emily, 2017. "Price Relationships between Calves and Yearlings: An Updated Structural Change Assessment," Journal of Applied Farm Economics, Purdue University, vol. 1(01).
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    18. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
    19. Ehrich, R.L., 1972. "A Model of Cash and Futures Price Relationships for Deliverable-Quality Beef Cattle," WAEA/ WFEA Conference Archive (1929-1995) 323735, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    20. Schulz, Lee L. & Boetel, Brenda L. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C., 2018. "Price-Weight Relationship for Feeder Cattle: An Updated Dairy-Beef Assessment," Western Economics Forum, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 16(2), December.
    21. Donald W. K. Andrews, 2003. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point: A Corrigendum," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 395-397, January.
    22. Edgar E. Twine & James Rude & Jim Unterschultz, 2016. "Country of Origin Labeling and Structural Change in U.S. Imports of Canadian Cattle and Beef," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 64(3), pages 545-563, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher C. Pudenz & Lee L. Schulz, 2024. "Multi‐plant coordination in the U.S. beef packing industry," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(1), pages 382-415, January.

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