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The relationship between shipping freight rates and inflation in the Euro Area

Author

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  • Michail, Nektarios A.
  • Melas, Konstantinos D.
  • Cleanthous, Lena

Abstract

Consumer inflation across the globe has rebounded during 2021 due to supply-side disruptions, one of which is the increase in freight costs. To elaborate on the relationship between inflation and shipping costs, we employ a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and use disaggregated monthly data from January 2009 to August 2021, using both constant tax and the standard price indices. Following a shock in freight rates, the most hard-hit sectors appear to be garments and major household appliances, items that have traditionally been manufactured outside the euro area. In addition, using a threshold regression methodology, we show that when freight rates rise more than $1300-$1500 per day, the sensitivity of inflation to freight changes increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Michail, Nektarios A. & Melas, Konstantinos D. & Cleanthous, Lena, 2022. "The relationship between shipping freight rates and inflation in the Euro Area," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 40-49.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inteco:v:172:y:2022:i:c:p:40-49
    DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2022.08.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Sologon, Denisa M. & O'Donoghue, Cathal & Linden, Jules & Kyzyma, Iryna & Loughrey, Jason, 2022. "Welfare and Distributional Impact of Soaring Prices in Europe," IZA Discussion Papers 15738, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Omid Asadollah & Linda Schwartz Carmy & Md. Rezwanul Hoque & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2024. "Geopolitical risk, supply chains, and global inflation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(8), pages 3450-3486, August.
    3. Anderl, Christina & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria, 2024. "Shipping cost uncertainty, endogenous regime switching and the global drivers of inflation," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    4. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2024. "A Global Oil Market Model with Shipping Costs," CESifo Working Paper Series 11551, CESifo.
    5. Xingong Ding & Yong-Jae Choi, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Maritime Transport Costs Shocks: Evidence from the South Korean Economy," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-26, August.
    6. Nektarios A. Michail & Kyriaki G. LouKa, 2023. "The inefficiency of Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area," Working Papers 2023-3, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    7. Kostika, Eleftheria & Siameti, Panagiota & Dotsis, George, 2025. "Monetary policy effects on freight rates of dry bulk vessels," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    8. Mrudul Y. Jani & Manish R. Betheja & Urmila Chaudhari & Biswajit Sarkar, 2023. "Effect of Future Price Increase for Products with Expiry Dates and Price-Sensitive Demand under Different Payment Policies," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-31, January.
    9. Gong, Yuting & Peng, Yongyuan & Xu, Luxuan & Chen, Kecai & Shi, Wenming, 2025. "Shipping news sentiment as a predictor of iron ore freight rates: Hybrid evidence from lexicon-based analysis and threshold autoregression modelling," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 178-190.
    10. Giulia Brancaccio & Myrto Kalouptsidi & Theodore Papageorgiou, 2025. "Rigidities in Transportation and Supply Chain Disruptions," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 115, pages 543-550, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • R4 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics

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