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Basis Volatilities of Corn and Soybean in Spatially Separated Markets: The Effect of Ethanol Demand

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  • Bekkerman, Anton
  • Pelletier, Denis

Abstract

The 2006 spike in corn-based ethanol demand has contributed to the increase in basis volatility in corn and soybean markets across the United States, which has, to a significant degree, led to the observed large jumps in the prices of the two commodities. Despite the overall rise in basis volatility, there remain differences in the degree of volatility that exists across spatially separated markets, which might be caused by factors such as transportation costs, seasonality, and time-to-delivery. The focus of this study is threefold first, this work models basis data for six corn and soybean markets by using a multivariate GARCH model that incorporates the spatial linkages of these markets; next, the model is used to investigate whether the increase in ethanol demand has significantly aided in the rise of basis volatilities; and last, the spatio-temporal linkages among basis volatilities in different markets are examined under various scenarios of spot-price shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Bekkerman, Anton & Pelletier, Denis, 2009. "Basis Volatilities of Corn and Soybean in Spatially Separated Markets: The Effect of Ethanol Demand," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49281, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea09:49281
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49281
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," NBER Working Papers 8554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Sébastien Laurent & Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., pages 79-109.
    3. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
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    5. Taylor, Mykel R. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C. & Kastens, Terry L., 2006. "Forecasting Crop Basis Using Historical Averages Supplemented with Current Market Information," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(03), December.
    6. Jiang, Bingrong, 1997. "Corn and soybean basis behavior and forecasting: fundamental and alternative approaches," ISU General Staff Papers 1997010108000013213, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Ramirez, Octavio A. & Fadiga, Mohamadou L., 2003. "Forecasting Agricultural Commodity Prices with Asymmetric-Error GARCH Models," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(01), April.
    8. Naik, Gopal & Leuthold, Raymond M., 1991. "A Note On The Factors Affecting Corn Basis Relationships," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(01), July.
    9. Crain, Susan J & Lee, Jae Ha, 1996. " Volatility in Wheat Spot and Futures Markets, 1950-1993: Government Farm Programs, Seasonality, and Causality," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 325-343, March.
    10. Manfredo, Mark R. & Leuthold, Raymond M. & Irwin, Scott H., 2001. "Forecasting Fed Cattle, Feeder Cattle, and Corn Cash Price Volatility: The Accuracy of Time Series, Implied Volatility, and Composite Approaches," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, pages 523-538.
    11. Naik, Gopal & Leuthold, Raymond M., 1991. "A Note on the Factors Affecting Corn Basis Relationships," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(01), pages 147-153, July.
    12. Hayenga, Marvin L. & Jiang, Bingrong, 1997. "Corn and Soybean Basis Behavior and Forecasting: Fundamental and Alternative Approaches," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10400, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Busse, Stefan & Brümmer, Bernhard & Ihle, Rico, 2010. "Investigating Rapeseed Price Volatilities In The Course Of The Food Crisis," 50st Annual Conference, Braunschweig, Germany, September 29-October 1, 2010 93957, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    basis; spatially separated markets; multivariate GARCH; volatility; Agricultural Finance; Demand and Price Analysis; Q11; Q14; G13;

    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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