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Forecasting Fed Cattle, Feeder Cattle, And Corn Cash Price Volatility: The Accuracy Of Time Series, Implied Volatility, And Composite Approaches

  • Manfredo, Mark R.
  • Leuthold, Raymond M.
  • Irwin, Scott H.

Economists and others need estimates of future cash price volatility to use in risk management evaluation and education programs. This paper evaluates the performance of alternative volatility forecasts for fed cattle, feeder cattle, and corn cash price returns. Forecasts include time series (e.g. GARCH), implied volatility from options on futures contracts, and composite specifications. The overriding finding from this research, consistent with the existing volatility forecasting literature, is that no single method of volatility forecasting provides superior accuracy across alternative data sets and horizons. However, evidence is provided suggesting that risk managers and extension educators use composite methods when both time series implied volatilities are available.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15449
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Article provided by Southern Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 33 (2001)
Issue (Month): 03 (December)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:15449
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.saea.org/jaae/jaae.htm

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  1. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
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