Forecasting Short-Run Inflation Volatility using Futures Prices: An Empirical Analysis from a Value at Risk Perspective
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- A. F. Herbst & D. D. Kare & S. C. Caples, 1989. "Hedging effectiveness and minimum risk hedge ratios in the presence of autocorrelation: Foreign currency futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 185-197, June.
- Robert Engle, 2004.
"Risk and Volatility: Econometric Models and Financial Practice,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 405-420, June.
- Engle III, Robert F., 2003. "Risk and Volatility: Econometric Models and Financial Practice," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2003-4, Nobel Prize Committee.
- G. Benavides & P. N. Snowden, 2006. "Futures for farmers: Hedging participation and the Mexican corn scheme," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 698-712.
- Daniel Chiquiar & Antonio Noriega & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2010.
"A time-series approach to test a change in inflation persistence: the Mexican experience,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(24), pages 3067-3075.
- Manuel Ramos Francia & Daniel Chiquiar & Antonio E. Noriega, 2007. "Time Series Approach to Test a Change in Inflation Persistence: The Mexican Experience," Working Papers 2007-01, Banco de México.
- Ng, Victor K & Pirrong, Stephen Craig, 1994. "Fundamentals and Volatility: Storage, Spreads, and the Dynamics of Metals Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 203-230, April.
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993.
" On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Guillermo Benavides Perales, 2009. "Price volatility forecasts for agricultural commodities: an application of volatility models, option implieds and composite approaches forfutures prices of corn and wheat," Revista de Administración, Finanzas y Economía (Journal of Management, Finance and Economics), Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus Ciudad de México, vol. 3(2), pages 40-59.
- Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
- Pong, Shiuyan & Shackleton, Mark B. & Taylor, Stephen J. & Xu, Xinzhong, 2004. "Forecasting currency volatility: A comparison of implied volatilities and AR(FI)MA models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 2541-2563, October.
- Brooks, C. & Clare, A. D. & Persand, G., 2000. "A word of caution on calculating market-based minimum capital risk requirements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1557-1574, October.
- Hsieh, David A, 1991. " Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1839-1877, December.
- Anning Wei & Raymond M. Leuthold, 1998. "Long Agricultural Futures Prices: ARCH, Long Memory, or Chaos Processes?," Finance 9805001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
- Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Guillermo Benavides, 2006. "Volatility Forecasts for the Mexican Peso - U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: An Empirical Analysis of Garch, Option Implied and Composite Forecast Models," Working Papers 2006-04, Banco de México.
- Raul Susmel & Andrew Thompson, 1997. "Volatility, storage and convenience: Evidence from natural gas markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 17-43, February.
- Engle, Robert F, 2000. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation - A Simple Class of Multivariate GARCH Models," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt56j4143f, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
More about this item
KeywordsVolatilidad asimétrica; remuestreo; modelo GARCH; modelo TARCH; inflación; futuros indizados a la inflación; México; Valor en Riesgo; persistencia en la volatilidad;
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
StatisticsAccess and download statistics
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ega:rafega:201007. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (José Antonio Núñez). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/emitemx.html .
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.