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The effect of realised volatility on stock returns risk estimates

Author

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  • Grané, Aurea
  • Veiga, Helena

Abstract

In this paper, we estimate minimum capital risk requirements for short, long positions and three investment horizons, using the traditional GARCH model and two other GARCH-type models that incorporate the possibility of asymmetric responses of volatility to price changes; and, most importantly, we analyse the models performance when realised volatility is included as an explanatory variable into the models' variance equations. The results suggest that the inclusion of realised volatility improves the models forecastability and their capacity to calculate accurate measures of minimum capital risk requirements.

Suggested Citation

  • Grané, Aurea & Veiga, Helena, 2007. "The effect of realised volatility on stock returns risk estimates," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws076316, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  • Handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:ws076316
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    Cited by:

    1. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Xanthopoulos-Sisinis, Spyros & Refenes, Apostolos P., 2011. "Are realized volatility models good candidates for alternative Value at Risk prediction strategies?," MPRA Paper 30364, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Chaker Aloui & Hela BEN HAMIDA, 2015. "Estimation and Performance Assessment of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall Based on Long-Memory GARCH-Class Models," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(1), pages 30-54, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymmetry;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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