Predicting the Corn Basis in the Texas Triangle Area
Shifting patterns of corn use as a result of the ethanol boom may be causing basis levels to change across the United States, creating the need for methods to predict basis levels in dynamic conditions. This study develops a new and straightforward economic model of basis forecasting that outperforms the simple three-year average method suggested in much of the literature. We use monthly data of the corn basis in the Texas Triangle Area from February 1997 to July 2008. The results show the new model based on economic fundamentals performs better than basis estimates using a three-year moving average.
Volume (Year): 27 (2009)
Issue (Month): ()
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- Hayenga, Marvin L. & Jiang, Bingrong, 1997. "Corn and Soybean Basis Behavior and Forecasting: Fundamental and Alternative Approaches," Staff General Research Papers 10400, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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2000 Producer marketing and Risk Management Conference, January 13-14, Orlando, FL
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- Parcell, Joseph L. & Schroeder, Ted C. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C., 2000. "Factors Affecting Live Cattle Basis," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(03), December.
- Seamon, V. Frederick & Kahl, Kandice H. & Curtis, Charles E., Jr., 1997. "A Regional Comparison Of U.S. Cotton Basis Patterns," Working Papers 18806, Clemson University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
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