Predicting the Corn Basis in the Texas Triangle Area
Shifting patterns of corn use as a result of the ethanol boom may be causing basis levels to change across the United States, creating the need for methods to predict basis levels in dynamic conditions. This study develops a new and straightforward economic model of basis forecasting that outperforms the simple three-year average method suggested in much of the literature. We use monthly data of the corn basis in the Texas Triangle Area from February 1997 to July 2008. The results show the new model based on economic fundamentals performs better than basis estimates using a three-year moving average.
Volume (Year): 27 (2009)
Issue (Month): ()
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2000 Producer marketing and Risk Management Conference, January 13-14, Orlando, FL
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- Outlaw, Joe L. & Anderson, David P. & Klose, Steven L. & Richardson, James W. & Herbst, Brian K. & Waller, Mark L. & Raulston, J. Marc & Sneary, Shannon L. & Gill, Robert Chope, II, 2003. "An Economic Examination of Potential Ethanol Production in Texas," Working Papers 42707, Texas A&M University, Agricultural and Food Policy Center.
- Taylor, Mykel R. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C. & Kastens, Terry L., 2006. "Forecasting Crop Basis Using Historical Averages Supplemented with Current Market Information," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(03), December.
- Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2006. "Forecasting Basis Levels in the Soybean Complex: A Comparison of Time Series Methods," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 38(03), December.
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