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Evaluating The Use Of Futures Prices To Forecast The Farm Level U.S. Corn Price

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  • Hoffman, Linwood A.
  • Beachler, Michael

Abstract

A model is developed using bases, marketing weights, and a composite of monthly futures and cash prices to forecast a season-average U.S. farm price for corn. Forecast accuracy measures include the mean absolute percentage error and Theil's U-statistic. Futures forecasts are compared with a naïve forecast and WASDE projections. Futures price forecasts are timely and reliable.

Suggested Citation

  • Hoffman, Linwood A. & Beachler, Michael, 2001. "Evaluating The Use Of Futures Prices To Forecast The Farm Level U.S. Corn Price," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20612, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea01:20612
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.20612
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bruce L. Gardner, 1976. "Futures Prices in Supply Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 58(1), pages 81-84.
    2. Anne E. Peck, 1976. "Futures Markets, Supply Response, and Price Stability," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 90(3), pages 407-423.
    3. Jiang, Bingrong, 1997. "Corn and soybean basis behavior and forecasting: fundamental and alternative approaches," ISU General Staff Papers 1997010108000013213, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1978. "Information, futures prices, and stabilizing speculation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 79-98, February.
    5. Hayenga, Marvin L. & Jiang, Bingrong, 1997. "Corn and Soybean Basis Behavior and Forecasting: Fundamental and Alternative Approaches," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10400, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. William G. Tomek, 1997. "Commodity Futures Prices as Forecasts," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 19(1), pages 23-44.
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