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Forecasting Ex-Vessel Prices for Hard Blue Crabs in the Chesapeake Bay Region: Individual and Composite Methods

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  • Hudson, Michael A.
  • Capps, Oral, Jr.

Abstract

Given the relative importance of the Chesapeake Bay hard blue crab fishery to the U.S. blue crab fishery , this paper analyzes ex-vessel prices for hard blue crabs landed in this region. The purpose is to evaluate alternative methods of forecasting ex-vessel prices for hard blue crabs in the Bay; both individual methods (trend extrapolation, econometric, and time-series) and composite methods. Examining the mean squared errors for the individual methods, the time-series model performs the best, with the econometric model slightly better than the trend extrapolation model. None of the composite methods outperforms the time-series model, although in some cases the differences are slight. Nevertheless, the time-series trend extrapolation composite outperforms all other models in identifying turning points. Generally speaking, it would appear that ex-vessel prices for hard blue crabs possess strong time dependencies , and consequently, better forecasts occur with time-series models than with econometric models.

Suggested Citation

  • Hudson, Michael A. & Capps, Oral, Jr., 1984. "Forecasting Ex-Vessel Prices for Hard Blue Crabs in the Chesapeake Bay Region: Individual and Composite Methods," Journal of the Northeastern Agricultural Economics Council, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 13(01), pages 1-7, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:nareaj:159265
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.159265
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Prochaska, Fred J., 1978. "Prices, Marketing Margins, and Structural Change in the King Mackerel Marketing System," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 105-109, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Allen, P. Geoffrey, 1984. "A Note On Forecasting With Econometric Models," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 13(2), pages 1-4, October.

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