Australian Economic Growth: Non-Linearities and Internaitonal Influences
This paper considers the extent to which fluctuations in Australian economic growth are affected by domestic and overseas economic performance. We investigate the performance of a range of non-linear models versus linear models using Bayes factors and posterior odds ratios. The posterior odds ratios favour non-linear specifications in which fluctuations in economic activity in the US affect Australia's economic performance. Our results suggest that an exogenous negative shock will be more persistent, lead to greater output volatility, and have a greater impact on growth, than a positive shock of equal magnitude.
|Date of creation:||2000|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne, 4th Floor, FBE Building, Level 4, 111 Barry Street. Victoria, 3010, Australia|
Phone: +61 3 8344 5355
Fax: +61 3 8344 6899
Web page: http://fbe.unimelb.edu.au/economics
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bruce E. Hansen, 2000.
"Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation,"
Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
- Brooks, C. & Henry, O.T., 1999.
"Linear and Non-Linear Transmission of Equity Return Volatility: Evidence From the US, Japan, and Australia,"
Department of Economics - Working Papers Series
676, The University of Melbourne.
- Brooks, Chris & Henry, Olan T., 2000. "Linear and non-linear transmission of equity return volatility: evidence from the US, Japan and Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 497-513, December.
- Henry, Olan T & Olekalns, Nilss & Summers, Peter M, 2001. "Exchange Rate Instability: A Threshold Autoregressive Approach," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(237), pages 160-166, June.
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Dissecting the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n13, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
- Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
- Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M, 1999.
"Dynamic Asymmetries in U.S. Unemployment,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 17(3), pages 298-312, July.
- Adrian Pagan, 1997. "Towards an Understanding of Some Business Cycle Characteristics," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 30(1), pages 1-15.
- Potter, Simon M, 1995.
"A Nonlinear Approach to US GNP,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 109-125, April-Jun.
- David Gruen & Geoffrey Shuetrim, 1994. "Internationalisation and the Macroeconomy," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Philip Lowe & Jacqueline Dwyer (ed.), International Intergration of the Australian Economy Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M., 1998. "Bayes factors and nonlinearity: Evidence from economic time series1," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 251-281, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:738. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Katherine Perez)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.