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Australian Economic Growth: Non-Linearities and Internaitonal Influences

This paper considers the extent to which fluctuations in Australian economic growth are affected by domestic and overseas economic performance. We investigate the performance of a range of non-linear models versus linear models using Bayes factors and posterior odds ratios. The posterior odds ratios favour non-linear specifications in which fluctuations in economic activity in the US affect Australia's economic performance. Our results suggest that an exogenous negative shock will be more persistent, lead to greater output volatility, and have a greater impact on growth, than a positive shock of equal magnitude.

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Paper provided by The University of Melbourne in its series Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number 738.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:738
Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne, 4th Floor, FBE Building, Level 4, 111 Barry Street. Victoria, 3010, Australia
Phone: +61 3 8344 5355
Fax: +61 3 8344 6899
Web page: http://www.economics.unimelb.edu.au
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  1. Simon M. Potter, 1993. "A Nonlinear Approach to U.S. GNP," UCLA Economics Working Papers 693, UCLA Department of Economics.
  2. David Gruen & Geoffrey Shuetrim, 1994. "Internationalisation and the Macroeconomy," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Philip Lowe & Jacqueline Dwyer (ed.), International Intergration of the Australian Economy Reserve Bank of Australia.
  3. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
  4. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Dissecting the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n13, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  5. Adrian Pagan, 1997. "Towards an Understanding of Some Business Cycle Characteristics," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 30(1), pages 1-15.
  6. Brooks, C. & Henry, O.T., 1999. "Linear and Non-Linear Transmission of Equity Return Volatility: Evidence From the US, Japan, and Australia," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 676, The University of Melbourne.
  7. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Dynamic asymmetries in US unemployment," ESE Discussion Papers 15, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  8. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  9. Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M., 1998. "Bayes factors and nonlinearity: Evidence from economic time series1," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 251-281, November.
  10. Henry, Olan T & Olekalns, Nilss & Summers, Peter M, 2001. "Exchange Rate Instability: A Threshold Autoregressive Approach," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(237), pages 160-66, June.
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