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Dynamic modeling of mean-reverting spreads for statistical arbitrage

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  • Kostas Triantafyllopoulos
  • Giovanni Montana

Abstract

Statistical arbitrage strategies, such as pairs trading and its generalizations, rely on the construction of mean-reverting spreads enjoying a certain degree of predictability. Gaussian linear state-space processes have recently been proposed as a model for such spreads under the assumption that the observed process is a noisy realization of some hidden states. Real-time estimation of the unobserved spread process can reveal temporary market inefficiencies which can then be exploited to generate excess returns. Building on previous work, we embrace the state-space framework for modeling spread processes and extend this methodology along three different directions. First, we introduce time-dependency in the model parameters, which allows for quick adaptation to changes in the data generating process. Second, we provide an on-line estimation algorithm that can be constantly run in real-time. Being computationally fast, the algorithm is particularly suitable for building aggressive trading strategies based on high-frequency data and may be used as a monitoring device for mean-reversion. Finally, our framework naturally provides informative uncertainty measures of all the estimated parameters. Experimental results based on Monte Carlo simulations and historical equity data are discussed, including a co-integration relationship involving two exchange-traded funds.

Suggested Citation

  • Kostas Triantafyllopoulos & Giovanni Montana, 2008. "Dynamic modeling of mean-reverting spreads for statistical arbitrage," Papers 0808.1710, arXiv.org, revised May 2009.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0808.1710
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. David S. Sun & Shih-Chuan Tsai & Wei Wang, 2013. "Behavioral Investment Strategy Matters: A Statistical Arbitrage Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(S3), pages 47-61, July.
    2. Clegg, Matthew & Krauss, Christopher, 2016. "Pairs trading with partial cointegration," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 05/2016, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    3. Krauss, Christopher, 2015. "Statistical arbitrage pairs trading strategies: Review and outlook," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 09/2015, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    4. João Frois Caldeira & Gulherme Valle Moura, 2013. "Selection of a Portfolio of Pairs Based on Cointegration: A Statistical Arbitrage Strategy," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 11(1), pages 49-80.
    5. Cathy W. S. Chen & Sangyeol Lee & Shu-Yu Chen, 2016. "Local non-stationarity test in mean for Markov switching GARCH models: an approximate Bayesian approach," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 1-24, March.
    6. repec:wsi:ijtafx:v:18:y:2015:i:03:n:s021902491550020x is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Bolgun, Evren & Kurun, Engin & Guven, Serhat, 2009. "Dynamic Pairs Trading Strategy For The Companies Listed In The Istanbul Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 19887, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Tim Leung & Brian Ward, 2015. "The golden target: analyzing the tracking performance of leveraged gold ETFs," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 278-297, August.
    9. Focardi, Sergio M. & Fabozzi, Frank J. & Mitov, Ivan K., 2016. "A new approach to statistical arbitrage: Strategies based on dynamic factor models of prices and their performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 134-155.
    10. Kevin Guo & Tim Leung, 2016. "Understanding the Tracking Errors of Commodity Leveraged ETFs," Papers 1610.09404, arXiv.org.
    11. Tim Leung & Xin Li, 2015. "Optimal Mean Reversion Trading With Transaction Costs And Stop-Loss Exit," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(03), pages 1-31.
    12. Yerkin Kitapbayev & Tim Leung, 2017. "Mean Reversion Trading with Sequential Deadlines and Transaction Costs," Papers 1707.03498, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2018.

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