IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/37281.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Behavioral investment strategy matters: a statistical arbitrage approach

Author

Listed:
  • Sun, David
  • Tsai, Shih-Chuan
  • Wang, Wei

Abstract

In this study, we employ a statistical arbitrage approach to demonstrate that momentum investment strategy tend to work better in periods longer than six months, a result different from findings in past literature. Compared with standard parametric tests, the statistical arbitrage method produces more clearly that momentum strategies work only in longer formation and holding periods. Also they yield positive significant returns in an up market, but negative yet insignificant returns in a down market. Disposition and over-confidence effects are important factors contributing to the phenomenon. The over-confidence effect seems to dominate the disposition effect, especially in an up market. Moreover, the over-confidence investment behavior of institutional investors is the main cause for significant momentum returns observed in an up market. In a down market, the institutional investors tend to adopt a contrarian strategy while the individuals are still maintaining momentum behavior within shorter periods. The behavior difference between investor groups explains in part why momentum strategies work differently between up and down market states. Robustness tests confirm that the momentum returns do not come from firm size, overlapping execution periods, market states definition or market frictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Sun, David & Tsai, Shih-Chuan & Wang, Wei, 2011. "Behavioral investment strategy matters: a statistical arbitrage approach," MPRA Paper 37281, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Jan 2012.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:37281
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37281/1/MPRA_paper_37281.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1839-1885 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Christian L Dunis & Richard Ho, 2005. "Cointegration portfolios of European equities for index tracking and market neutral strategies," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 6(1), pages 33-52, June.
    3. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    4. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Oleg Bondarenko, 2003. "Statistical Arbitrage and Securities Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 875-919, July.
    6. K. Triantafyllopoulos & G. Montana, 2011. "Dynamic modeling of mean-reverting spreads for statistical arbitrage," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 23-49, April.
    7. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1985. "The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 777-790, July.
    8. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:1:p:267-284 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Evan Gatev & William N. Goetzmann & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2006. "Pairs Trading: Performance of a Relative-Value Arbitrage Rule," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 797-827.
    10. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    11. Fama, Eugene F., 1998. "Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 283-306, September.
    12. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    13. Weber, Martin & Camerer, Colin F., 1998. "The disposition effect in securities trading: an experimental analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 167-184, January.
    14. Hogan, Steve & Jarrow, Robert & Teo, Melvyn & Warachka, Mitch, 2004. "Testing market efficiency using statistical arbitrage with applications to momentum and value strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 525-565, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rafał Wolski & Monika Bolek & Jerzy Gajdka & Janusz Brzeszczyński & Ali M. Kutan, 2023. "Do investment fund managers behave rationally in the light of central bank communication? Survey evidence from Poland," Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(5), pages 757-794, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 83-104, Winter.
    2. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    3. Markus Glaser & Martin Weber, 2007. "Overconfidence and trading volume," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 32(1), pages 1-36, June.
    4. Grinblatt, Mark & Han, Bing, 2001. "The Disposition Effect and Momentum," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt6qg5d62p, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    5. Menkhoff, Lukas & Nikiforow, Marina, 2009. "Professionals' endorsement of behavioral finance: Does it impact their perception of markets and themselves?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 318-329, August.
    6. Thomas Holtfort, 2019. "From standard to evolutionary finance: a literature survey," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 69(2), pages 207-232, June.
    7. Alasdair Brown & Fuyu Yang, 2017. "Salience and the Disposition Effect: Evidence from the Introduction of “Cash‐Outs” in Betting Markets," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(4), pages 1052-1073, April.
    8. Edmonds, Christopher T. & Edmonds, Jennifer E. & Fu, Richard & Jenkins, David S., 2018. "Price momentum and the premium for meeting or beating analysts' forecasts of earnings," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 34-47.
    9. Weber, Martin & Welfens, Frank, 2007. "How do markets react to fundamental shocks? : An experimental analysis on underreaction and momentum," Papers 07-42, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    10. Cici, Gjergji, 2011. "The prevalence of the disposition effect in mutual funds' trades," CFR Working Papers 11-05 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    11. Ahmet Göncü & Erdinc Akyildirim, 2017. "Statistical Arbitrage In The Multi-Asset Black–Scholes Economy," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(01), pages 1-18, March.
    12. Ahmet G�nc�, 2015. "Statistical arbitrage in the Black-Scholes framework," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(9), pages 1489-1499, September.
    13. Mirjam Lehenkari & Jukka Perttunen, 2010. "Holding on to the Losers: Finnish Evidence," Chapters, in: Brian Bruce (ed.), Handbook of Behavioral Finance, chapter 17, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Krauss, Christopher, 2015. "Statistical arbitrage pairs trading strategies: Review and outlook," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 09/2015, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    15. Jared Egginton & Jungshik Hur & Vivek Singh, 2019. "The impact of elasticity on disposition effect driven momentum, substitutability, size, and January seasonality," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 759-780, April.
    16. Glaser, Markus & Nöth, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2003. "Behavioral finance," Papers 03-14, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    17. Terrance Odean, 1999. "Do Investors Trade Too Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1279-1298, December.
    18. Kliger, Doron & Kudryavtsev, Andrey, 2008. "Reference point formation by market investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1782-1794, September.
    19. David Hirshleife, 2015. "Behavioral Finance," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 133-159, December.
    20. Sonntag, Dominik, 2018. "Die Theorie der fairen geometrischen Rendite [The Theory of Fair Geometric Returns]," MPRA Paper 87082, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Momentum Strategy; Statistical Arbitrage; Market State; Disposition Effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:37281. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.