IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/68410.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Machine Learning for Semi-Strong Efficiency Test of Inter-Market Wheat Futures

Author

Listed:
  • Phélippé-Guinvarc'h, Martial
  • Cordier, Jean

Abstract

This paper proposes an original work on world wheat futures market efficiency test to conclude on the semi-strong inefficiency of wheat futures. Our model uses american and european data together to estimate pair trading arbitrage returns on the wheat futures market. Some variables like transportation and balance sheet of USDA are significative in CART regression. Then, pair trading arbitrage is predictible with public information and we deduce of the semi-strong inefficiency of inter-market wheat futures.

Suggested Citation

  • Phélippé-Guinvarc'h, Martial & Cordier, Jean, 2015. "Machine Learning for Semi-Strong Efficiency Test of Inter-Market Wheat Futures," MPRA Paper 68410, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:68410
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/68410/1/PhelippeGuinvarch_Cordier_NCCC_134_2015.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Vosvrda, Miloslav, 2014. "Commodity futures and market efficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 50-57.
    2. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    3. Lonnie Hamm & B. Wade Brorsen, 2000. "Trading futures markets based on signals from a neural network," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 137-140.
    4. K. Triantafyllopoulos & G. Montana, 2011. "Dynamic modeling of mean-reverting spreads for statistical arbitrage," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 23-49, April.
    5. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    6. Philip Garcia, 2004. "A selected review of agricultural commodity futures and options markets," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 31(3), pages 235-272, September.
    7. Chao-Chi Chang & Heng Chih Chou & Chun Chou Wu, 2014. "Value-at-risk analysis of the asymmetric long-memory volatility process of dry bulk freight rates," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 16(3), pages 298-320, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sukpitak, Jessada & Hengpunya, Varagorn, 2016. "The influence of trading volume on market efficiency: The DCCA approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 458(C), pages 259-265.
    2. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Vosvrda, Miloslav, 2016. "Gold, currencies and market efficiency," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 449(C), pages 27-34.
    3. Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2019. "Are the crude oil markets really becoming more efficient over time? Some new evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 253-263.
    4. Tokic, Damir, 2015. "The 2014 oil bust: Causes and consequences," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 162-169.
    5. Xiaokang Hou & Shah Fahad & Peipei Zhao & Beibei Yan & Tianjun Liu, 2022. "The Trilogy of the Chinese Apple Futures Market: Price Discovery, Risk-Hedging and Cointegration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-16, October.
    6. Duan, Kun & Li, Zeming & Urquhart, Andrew & Ye, Jinqiang, 2021. "Dynamic efficiency and arbitrage potential in Bitcoin: A long-memory approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. Corzo Santamaría, Teresa & Martin-Bujack, Karin & Portela, Jose & Sáenz-Diez, Rocio, 2022. "Early market efficiency testing among hydrogen players," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 723-742.
    8. Go, You-How & Lau, Wee-Yeap, 2017. "Investor demand, market efficiency and spot-futures relation: Further evidence from crude palm oil," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 135-146.
    9. Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2018. "On Bitcoin markets (in)efficiency and its evolution," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 257-262.
    10. Sukpitak, Jessada & Hengpunya, Varagorn, 2016. "Efficiency of Thai stock markets: Detrended fluctuation analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 458(C), pages 204-209.
    11. Zunino, Luciano & Bariviera, Aurelio F. & Guercio, M. Belén & Martinez, Lisana B. & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2016. "Monitoring the informational efficiency of European corporate bond markets with dynamical permutation min-entropy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 456(C), pages 1-9.
    12. Fernandes, Leonardo H.S. & Araújo, Fernando H.A., 2020. "Taxonomy of commodities assets via complexity-entropy causality plane," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    13. Christiane Goodfellow & Dirk Schiereck & Steffen Wippler, 2013. "Are behavioural finance equity funds a superior investment? A note on fund performance and market efficiency," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 14(2), pages 111-119, April.
    14. Cagli, Efe Caglar & Taskin, Dilvin & Evrim Mandaci, Pınar, 2019. "The short- and long-run efficiency of energy, precious metals, and base metals markets: Evidence from the exponential smooth transition autoregressive models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    15. Shi, Huai-Long & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Factor volatility spillover and its implications on factor premia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    16. Carlo Rosa & Giovanni Verga, 2006. "The Impact of Central Bank Announcements on Asset Prices in Real Time: Testing the Efficiency of the Euribor Futures Market," CEP Discussion Papers dp0764, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    17. Thomas Delcey, 2019. "Samuelson vs Fama on the Efficient Market Hypothesis: The Point of View of Expertise [Samuelson vs Fama sur l’efficience informationnelle des marchés financiers : le point de vue de l’expertise]," Post-Print hal-01618347, HAL.
    18. Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin & Olga Isengildina‐Massa, 2020. "Supply Fundamentals and Grain Futures Price Movements," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(2), pages 548-568, March.
    19. Vicente Esteve & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & María A. Prats, 2013. "The present value model of US stock prices revisited: long-run evidence with structural breaks, 1871-2010," Working Papers 04/13, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
    20. Ortiz-Cruz, Alejandro & Rodriguez, Eduardo & Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos & Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose, 2012. "Efficiency of crude oil markets: Evidences from informational entropy analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 365-373.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    semi-strong efficiency; agricultural commodities;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:68410. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.