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A new approach to statistical arbitrage: Strategies based on dynamic factor models of prices and their performance

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  • Focardi, Sergio M.
  • Fabozzi, Frank J.
  • Mitov, Ivan K.

Abstract

Statistical arbitrage strategies are typically based on models of returns. We introduce a new statistical arbitrage strategy based on dynamic factor models of prices. Our objective in this paper is to exploit the mean-reverting properties of prices reported in the literature. We do so because, to capture the same information using a return-based factor model, a much larger number of lags would be needed, leading to inaccurate parameter estimation. To empirically test the relative performance of return-based and price-based models, we construct portfolios (long-short, long-only, and equally weighted) based on the forecasts generated by two dynamic factor models. Using the stock of companies included in the S&P 500 index for constructing portfolios, the empirical analysis statistically tests the relative forecasting performance using the Diebold–Mariano framework and performing the test for statistical arbitrage proposed by Hogan et al. (2004). Our results show that prices allow for significantly more accurate forecasts than returns and pass the test for statistical arbitrage. We attribute this finding to the mean-reverting properties of stock prices. The high level of forecasting accuracy using price-based factor models has important theoretical and practical implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Focardi, Sergio M. & Fabozzi, Frank J. & Mitov, Ivan K., 2016. "A new approach to statistical arbitrage: Strategies based on dynamic factor models of prices and their performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 134-155.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:65:y:2016:i:c:p:134-155
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2015.10.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Tadahiro Nakajima, 2019. "Expectations for Statistical Arbitrage in Energy Futures Markets," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, January.
    2. Danni Chen & Jing Cui & Yan Gao & Leilei Wu, 2017. "Pairs trading in Chinese commodity futures markets: an adaptive cointegration approach," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(5), pages 1237-1264, December.
    3. Focardi, Sergio M. & Fabozzi, Frank J. & Mazza, Davide, 2019. "Modeling local trends with regime shifting models with time-varying probabilities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Statistical arbitrage; Return-based factor models; Price-based factor models; Diebold–Mariano framework; Long-short strategies; Long-only strategies;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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