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Generalized Dynamic Factor Models and Volatilities. Recovering the Market Volatility Shocks

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  • Matteo Barigozzi
  • Marc Hallin

Abstract

Decomposing volatilities into a common market-driven component and an idiosyncratic itemspecific one is an important issue in financial econometrics. This, however, requires the statistical analysis of large panels of time series, hence faces the usual challenges associated with highdimensional data. Factor model methods in such a context are an ideal tool, but they do not readily apply to the analysis of volatilities. Focusing on the reconstruction of the unobserved market shocks and the way they are loaded by the various items (stocks) in the panel, we propose an entirely non-parametric and model-free two-step general dynamic factor approach to the problem, which avoids the usual curse of dimensionality. Applied to the S&P100 asset return dataset, the method provides evidence that a non-negligible proportion of the market-driven volatility of returns originates in the volatilities of the idiosyncratic components of returns.
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Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin, 2014. "Generalized Dynamic Factor Models and Volatilities. Recovering the Market Volatility Shocks," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-52, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  • Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/177444
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Trucíos Maza, Carlos César & Hotta, Luiz Koodi & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2018. "On the robustness of the principal volatility components," Textos para discussão 474, FGV/EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    2. Gonzalo, Jesús & Dolado Lobregad, Juan José & Chen, Liang, 2017. "Quantile Factor Models," UC3M Working papers. Economics 25299, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    3. repec:eee:econom:v:201:y:2017:i:2:p:307-321 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:bla:jorssc:v:66:y:2017:i:3:p:581-605 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin, 2015. "Networks, Dynamic Factors, and the Volatility Analysis of High-Dimensional Financial Series," Papers 1510.05118, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2016.
    6. Barigozzi, Matteo & Hallin, Marc, 2017. "Generalized dynamic factor models and volatilities: estimation and forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 307-321.
    7. Fabrizio Cipollini & Giampiero M. Gallo, 2018. "Modeling Euro STOXX 50 Volatility with Common and Market–specific Components," Working Paper series 18-26, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    8. Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin & Stefano Soccorsi, 2017. "Identification of Global and National Shocks in International Financial Markets via General Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2017-10, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    9. Lübbers, Johannes & Posch, Peter N., 2016. "Commodities' common factor: An empirical assessment of the markets' drivers," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 28-40.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    volatility; dynamic factor models; block structure;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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