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Generalized Dynamic Factor Models and Volatilities: Consistency, Rates, and Prediction Intervals

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  • Matteo Barigozzi
  • Marc Hallin

Abstract

Volatilities, in high-dimensional panels of economic time series with a dynamic factor structure on the levels or returns, typically also admit a dynamic factor decomposition. A two-stage dynamic factor model method recovering common and idiosyncratic volatility shocks therefore was proposed in Barigozzi and Hallin (2016). By exploiting this two-stage factor approach, we build one-step-ahead conditional prediction intervals for large n×T panels of returns. We provide consistency and consistency rates results for the proposed estimators as both n and T tend to infinity. Finally, we apply our methodology to a panel of asset returns belonging to the S&P100 index in order to compute one-step-ahead conditional prediction intervals for the period 2006-2013. A comparison with the componentwise GARCH (1,1) benchmark (which does not take advantage of cross-sectional information) demonstrates the superiority of our approach, which is genuinely multivariate (and high-dimensional), nonparametric, and model-free.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin, 2018. "Generalized Dynamic Factor Models and Volatilities: Consistency, Rates, and Prediction Intervals," Working Papers ECARES 2018-33, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  • Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/278905
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Trucíos, Carlos & Mazzeu, João H. G. & Hallin, Marc & Hotta, Luiz K. & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls & Zevallos, Mauricio, 2019. "Forecasting conditional covariance matrices in high-dimensional time series: a general dynamic factor approach," Textos para discussão 505, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    2. Marc Hallin & Luis K. Hotta & João H. G Mazzeu & Carlos Cesar Trucios-Maza & Pedro L. Valls Pereira & Mauricio Zevallos, 2019. "Forecasting Conditional Covariance Matrices in High-Dimensional Time Series: a General Dynamic Factor Approach," Working Papers ECARES 2019-14, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

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    Keywords

    Volatility; Dynamic Factor Models; Prediction intervals; GARCH;

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