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Virtual Historical Simulation for estimating the conditional VaR of large portfolios

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  • Christian Francq
  • Jean-Michel Zakoian

Abstract

In order to estimate the conditional risk of a portfolio's return, two strategies can be advocated. A multivariate strategy requires estimating a dynamic model for the vector of risk factors, which is often challenging, when at all possible, for large portfolios. A univariate approach based on a dynamic model for the portfolio's return seems more attractive. However, when the combination of the individual returns is time varying, the portfolio's return series is typically non stationary which may invalidate statistical inference. An alternative approach consists in reconstituting a "virtual portfolio", whose returns are built using the current composition of the portfolio and for which a stationary dynamic model can be estimated. This paper establishes the asymptotic properties of this method, that we call Virtual Historical Simulation. Numerical illustrations on simulated and real data are provided.

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  • Christian Francq & Jean-Michel Zakoian, 2019. "Virtual Historical Simulation for estimating the conditional VaR of large portfolios," Papers 1909.04661, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1909.04661
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    Cited by:

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    2. Marc Hallin & Carlos Trucíos, 2020. "Forecasting Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall in Large Portfolios: a General Dynamic Factor Approach," Working Papers ECARES 2020-50, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Barigozzi, Matteo & Hallin, Marc, 2020. "Generalized dynamic factor models and volatilities: Consistency, rates, and prediction intervals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 216(1), pages 4-34.

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    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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