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Risk Measure Inference


  • Christophe Hurlin

    () (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Sebastien Laurent

    () (AMU IAE - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Aix-en-Provence - AMU - Aix Marseille Université, GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales)

  • Rogier Quaedvlieg

    () (Maastricht University [Maastricht])

  • Stephan Smeekes

    () (Maastricht University [Maastricht])


We propose a bootstrap-based test of the null hypothesis of equality of two firms' conditional Risk Measures (RMs) at a single point in time. The test can be applied to a wide class of conditional risk measures issued from parametric or semi-parametric models. Our iterative testing procedure produces a grouped ranking of the RMs which has direct application for systemic risk analysis. A Monte Carlo simulation demonstrates that our test has good size and power properties. We propose an application to a sample of U.S. financial institutions using CoVaR, MES, and SRISK, and conclude that only SRISK can be estimated with enough precision to allow for meaningful ranking.

Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Hurlin & Sebastien Laurent & Rogier Quaedvlieg & Stephan Smeekes, 2015. "Risk Measure Inference," Working Papers halshs-00877279, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00877279
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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Boudt, Kris & Daníelsson, Jón & Laurent, Sébastien, 2013. "Robust forecasting of dynamic conditional correlation GARCH models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 244-257.
    2. Sylvain Benoit & Gilbert Colletaz & Christophe Hurlin & Christophe Pérignon, 2013. "A Theoretical and Empirical Comparison of Systemic Risk Measures," Working Papers halshs-00746272, HAL.
    3. Hansen, Peter Reinhard, 2005. "A Test for Superior Predictive Ability," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 365-380, October.
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    7. Pascual, Lorenzo & Romo, Juan & Ruiz, Esther, 2006. "Bootstrap prediction for returns and volatilities in GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2293-2312, May.
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    9. Viral Acharya & Robert Engle & Matthew Richardson, 2012. "Capital Shortfall: A New Approach to Ranking and Regulating Systemic Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 59-64, May.
    10. Gourieroux, Christian & Zakoïan, Jean-Michel, 2013. "Estimation-Adjusted Var," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(04), pages 735-770, August.
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    12. Rabemananjara, R & Zakoian, J M, 1993. "Threshold Arch Models and Asymmetries in Volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 31-49, Jan.-Marc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Francq, Christian & Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 2015. "Looking for efficient qml estimation of conditional value-at-risk at multiple risk levels," MPRA Paper 67195, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Raphaëlle BELLANDO & Oana TOADER, 2017. "An analysis of banks’ weaknesses in the light of stress tests," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2479, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    3. Markus Holopainen & Peter Sarlin, 2015. "Toward robust early-warning models: A horse race, ensembles and model uncertainty," Papers 1501.04682,, revised Apr 2016.

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    Risk Measures; Grouped Ranking; Bootstrap; Uncertainty;

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