Optimal Predictions of Powers of Conditionally Heteroskedastic Processes
In conditionally heteroskedastic models, the optimal prediction of powers, or logarithms, of the absolute value has a simple expression in terms of the volatility and an expectation involving the independent process. A natural procedure for estimating this prediction is to estimate the volatility in a first step, for instance by Gaussian quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) or by least-absolute deviations, and to use empirical means based on rescaled innovations to estimate the expectation in a second step. This paper proposes an alternative one-step procedure, based on an appropriate non-Gaussian QML estimator, and establishes the asymptotic properties of the two approaches. Asymptotic comparisons and numerical experiments show that the differences in accuracy can be important, depending on the prediction problem and the innovations distribution. An application to indexes of major stock exchanges is given
|Date of creation:||Aug 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 15 Boulevard Gabriel Peri 92245 Malakoff Cedex|
Phone: 01 41 17 60 81
Web page: http://www.crest.fr
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- repec:adr:anecst:y:2000:i:60:p:05 is not listed on IDEAS
- Mukherjee, Kanchan, 2008. "M-Estimation In Garch Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(06), pages 1530-1553, December.
- Pan, Jiazhu & Wang, Hui & Tong, Howell, 2008. "Estimation and tests for power-transformed and threshold GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 352-378, January.
- Chris Brooks & Simon P. Burke & Gita Persand, 2002.
"Augoregressive Conditional Kurtosis,"
ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance
icma-dp2002-05, Henley Business School, Reading University.
- Menelaos Karanasos, . "Prediction in ARMA models with GARCH in Mean Effects," Discussion Papers 99/11, Department of Economics, University of York.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984.
"Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Theory,"
Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 681-700, May.
- Robinson, P. M., 1991. "Testing for strong serial correlation and dynamic conditional heteroskedasticity in multiple regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 67-84, January.
- Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1992.
"Prediction in dynamic models with time-dependent conditional variances,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 91-113.
- Baillie, R.T. & Bollerslev, R.T., 1990. "Prediction In Dynamic Models With Time Dependent Conditional Variances," Papers 8815, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Francq, Christian & Lepage, Guillaume & Zakoïan, Jean-Michel, 2011. "Two-stage non Gaussian QML estimation of GARCH models and testing the efficiency of the Gaussian QMLE," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 165(2), pages 246-257.
- Giraitis, Liudas & Kokoszka, Piotr & Leipus, Remigijus, 2000. "Stationary Arch Models: Dependence Structure And Central Limit Theorem," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(01), pages 3-22, February.
- Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
- Shiqing Ling, 2004. "Estimation and testing stationarity for double-autoregressive models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(1), pages 63-78.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Higgins, Matthew L & Bera, Anil K, 1992. "A Class of Nonlinear ARCH Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(1), pages 137-58, February.
- Liang Peng, 2003. "Least absolute deviations estimation for ARCH and GARCH models," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 90(4), pages 967-975, December.
- Nelson, Daniel B., 1990. "Stationarity and Persistence in the GARCH(1,1) Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(03), pages 318-334, September.
- Francesco Audrino & Peter Bühlmann, 2007.
"Splines for Financial Volatility,"
University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2007
2007-11, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
- Escanciano, Juan Carlos, 2009. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation Of Semi-Strong Garch Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(02), pages 561-570, April.
- Whitney K. Newey & Douglas G. Steigerwald, 1997. "Asymptotic Bias for Quasi-Maximum-Likelihood Estimators in Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 587-600, May.
- Bougerol, Philippe & Picard, Nico, 1992. "Stationarity of Garch processes and of some nonnegative time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 115-127.
- Stephen J. Taylor, 2007. "Introduction to Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction," Introductory Chapters, in: Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction Princeton University Press.
- Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
- Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
- Paolo Zaffaroni & Peter M. Robinson, 2004. "PSEUDO-MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF ARCH($ \infty $) MODELS," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 326, Econometric Society.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:crs:wpaper:2012-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Florian Sallaberry)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.