Prediction in ARMA models with GARCH in Mean Effects
This paper considers forecasting the conditional mean and variance from an ARMA model with GARCH in mean effects. Expressions for the optimal predictors and their conditional and unconditional MSE's are presented. We also derive the formula for the covariance structure of the process and its conditional variance.
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- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, Paul, 1986. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 2, number 9780122951831 edited by Shell, Karl.
- Karanasos, M., 1998. "A New Method For Obtaining The Autocovariance Of An Arma Model: An Exact Form Solution," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(05), pages 622-640, October.