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Global self-weighted and local quasi-maximum exponential likelihood estimators for ARMA-GARCH/IGARCH models

Listed author(s):
  • Zhu, Ke
  • Ling, Shiqing

This paper investigates the asymptotic theory of the quasi-maximum exponential likelihood estimators (QMELE) for ARMA–GARCH models. Under only a fractional moment condition, the strong consistency and the asymptotic normality of the global self-weighted QMELE are obtained. Based on this self-weighted QMELE, the local QMELE is showed to be asymptotically normal for the ARMA model with GARCH (finite variance) and IGARCH errors. A formal comparison of two estimators is given for some cases. A simulation study is carried out to assess the performance of these estimators, and a real example on the world crude oil price is given.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 51509.

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Date of creation: 17 Nov 2013
Publication status: Published in Annals of Statistics 4.39(2011): pp. 2131-2163
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:51509
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  1. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  2. Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Asymptotic Theory for a Vector ARMA-GARCH Model," ISER Discussion Paper 0549, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  3. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
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  6. Peter Hall & Qiwei Yao, 2003. "Inference in Arch and Garch Models with Heavy--Tailed Errors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 285-317, January.
  7. Shiqing Ling, 2005. "Self-weighted least absolute deviation estimation for infinite variance autoregressive models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(3), pages 381-393.
  8. Pollard, David, 1985. "New Ways to Prove Central Limit Theorems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(03), pages 295-313, December.
  9. Ngai Hang Chan & Liang Peng, 2005. "Weighted least absolute deviations estimation for an AR(1) process with ARCH(1) errors," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 92(2), pages 477-484, June.
  10. Basrak, Bojan & Davis, Richard A. & Mikosch, Thomas, 2002. "Regular variation of GARCH processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 95-115, May.
  11. Rongning Wu & Richard A. Davis, 2010. "Least absolute deviation estimation for general autoregressive moving average time-series models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 98-112, 03.
  12. Bera, Anil K & Higgins, Matthew L, 1993. " ARCH Models: Properties, Estimation and Testing," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(4), pages 305-366, December.
  13. Lumsdaine, Robin L, 1996. "Consistency and Asymptotic Normality of the Quasi-maximum Likelihood Estimator in IGARCH(1,1) and Covariance Stationary GARCH(1,1) Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 575-596, May.
  14. Davis, Richard A. & Knight, Keith & Liu, Jian, 1992. "M-estimation for autoregressions with infinite variance," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 145-180, February.
  15. Guodong Li & Wai Keung Li, 2008. "Least absolute deviation estimation for fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average time series models with conditional heteroscedasticity," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 95(2), pages 399-414.
  16. Guodong Li & Wai Keung Li, 2005. "Diagnostic checking for time series models with conditional heteroscedasticity estimated by the least absolute deviation approach," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 92(3), pages 691-701, September.
  17. Ling, Shiqing, 2007. "Self-weighted and local quasi-maximum likelihood estimators for ARMA-GARCH/IGARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 849-873, October.
  18. Bougerol, Philippe & Picard, Nico, 1992. "Stationarity of Garch processes and of some nonnegative time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 115-127.
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  21. Zhu, Ke & Ling, Shiqing, 2012. "THE GLOBAL WEIGHTED LAD ESTIMATORS FOR FINITE/INFINITE VARIANCE ARMA(p,q) MODELS," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(05), pages 1065-1086, October.
  22. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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