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Moment condition tests for heavy tailed time series

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  • Hill, Jonathan B.
  • Aguilar, Mike

Abstract

We develop an asymptotically chi-squared statistic for testing moment conditions E[mt(θ0)]=0, where mt(θ0) may be weakly dependent, scalar components of mt(θ0) may have an infinite variance, and E[mt(θ)] need not exist for any θ under the alternative. Score tests are a natural application, and in general a variety of tests can be heavy-tail robustified by our method, including white noise, GARCH affects, omitted variables, distribution, functional form, causation, volatility spillover and over-identification. The test statistic is derived from a tail-trimmed sample version of the moments evaluated at a consistent plug-in θˆT for θ0. Depending on the test in question and heaviness of tails, θˆT may be any consistent estimator including sub-T1/2-convergent and/or asymptotically non-Gaussian ones, since θˆT can be assured not to affect the test statistic asymptotically. We adapt bootstrap, p-value occupation time, and covariance determinant methods for selecting the trimming fractile in any sample, and apply our statistic to tests of white noise, omitted variables and volatility spillover. We find it obtains sharp empirical size and strong power, while conventional tests exhibit size distortions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hill, Jonathan B. & Aguilar, Mike, 2013. "Moment condition tests for heavy tailed time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 172(2), pages 255-274.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:172:y:2013:i:2:p:255-274
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2012.08.013
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    Cited by:

    1. Lorenzo Camponovo & Taisuke Otsu, 2015. "Robustness of Bootstrap in Instrumental Variable Regression," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 352-393, March.
    2. Hill, Jonathan B. & Prokhorov, Artem, 2016. "GEL estimation for heavy-tailed GARCH models with robust empirical likelihood inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 190(1), pages 18-45.
    3. Hill, Jonathan B., 2015. "Robust Generalized Empirical Likelihood for heavy tailed autoregressions with conditionally heteroscedastic errors," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 131-152.
    4. repec:cep:stiecm:/2014/572 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Aguilar, Mike & Hill, Jonathan B., 2015. "Robust score and portmanteau tests of volatility spillover," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(1), pages 37-61.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Moment condition test; Heavy tails; Tail trimming; Robust inference;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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