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Combining Value-at-Risk forecasts using penalized quantile regressions

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  • Bayer, Sebastian

Abstract

Penalized quantile regressions are proposed for the combination of Value-at-Risk forecasts. The primary reason for regularization of the quantile regression estimator with the elastic net, lasso and ridge penalties is multicollinearity among the standalone forecasts, which results in poor forecast performance of the non-regularized estimator due to unstable combination weights. This new approach is applied to combining the Value-at-Risk forecasts of a wide range of frequently used risk models for stocks comprising the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index. Within a thorough comparison analysis, the penalized quantile regressions perform better in terms of backtesting and tick losses than the standalone models and several competing forecast combination approaches. This is particularly evident during the global financial crisis of 2007–2008.

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  • Bayer, Sebastian, 2018. "Combining Value-at-Risk forecasts using penalized quantile regressions," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 56-77.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosta:v:8:y:2018:i:c:p:56-77
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosta.2017.08.001
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    5. Carlos Trucíos & James W. Taylor, 2023. "A comparison of methods for forecasting value at risk and expected shortfall of cryptocurrencies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 989-1007, July.
    6. Dimitriadis, Timo & Liu, Xiaochun & Schnaitmann, Julie, 2020. "Encompassing tests for value at risk and expected shortfall multi-step forecasts based on inference on the boundary," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 11-2020, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    7. Li, Jiang-Cheng & Tao, Chen & Li, Hai-Feng, 2022. "Dynamic forecasting performance and liquidity evaluation of financial market by Econophysics and Bayesian methods," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 588(C).
    8. Qin, Yichen & Wang, Linna & Li, Yang & Li, Rong, 2023. "Visualization and assessment of model selection uncertainty," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    9. Battagliola, Maria Laura & Sørensen, Helle & Tolver, Anders & Staicu, Ana-Maria, 2022. "A bias-adjusted estimator in quantile regression for clustered data," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 165-186.
    10. Lazar, Emese & Xue, Xiaohan, 2020. "Forecasting risk measures using intraday data in a generalized autoregressive score framework," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1057-1072.
    11. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022. "Specification Choices in Quantile Regression for Empirical Macroeconomics," Working Papers 22-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    12. Jung-Bin Su & Jui-Cheng Hung, 2018. "The Value-At-Risk Estimate of Stock and Currency-Stock Portfolios’ Returns," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-42, November.
    13. Ameni Ben Salem & Imene Safer & Islem Khefacha, 2021. "Value at Risk Estimation For the BRICS Countries : A Comparative Study," Post-Print hal-03502428, HAL.
    14. Yun Duan, 2022. "A Novel Interval Energy-Forecasting Method for Sustainable Building Management Based on Deep Learning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-18, July.
    15. Ben Salem, Ameni & Safer, Imene & Khefacha, Islem, 2022. "Value-at-Risk (VAR) Estimation Methods: Empirical Analysis based on BRICS Markets," MPRA Paper 113350, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2022.
    16. C. Davino & R. Romano & D. Vistocco, 2022. "Handling multicollinearity in quantile regression through the use of principal component regression," METRON, Springer;Sapienza Università di Roma, vol. 80(2), pages 153-174, August.
    17. Bartosz Uniejewski & Katarzyna Maciejowska, 2022. "LASSO Principal Component Averaging -- a fully automated approach for point forecast pooling," Papers 2207.04794, arXiv.org.
    18. Timo Dimitriadis & Julie Schnaitmann, 2019. "Forecast Encompassing Tests for the Expected Shortfall," Papers 1908.04569, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
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    21. De Gooijer Jan G. & Zerom Dawit, 2020. "Penalized Averaging of Parametric and Non-Parametric Quantile Forecasts," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-15, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Value-at-Risk; Forecast combination; Quantile regression; Elastic net; Regularization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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