IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Combining qualitative and quantitative approaches for measuring underground economy of Pakistan

Listed author(s):
  • Misbah Kiani

    ()

  • Adeel Ahmed

    ()

  • Khalid Zaman

    ()

Registered author(s):

    The concern for underground, unofficial or shadow economy by researchers and practitioners has been enlarged in the past few decades. The existence and widespread findings of shadow economies is a growing problem around the world. In this study, we draw on insights from an active and growing economic literature on demand for currency approach and the underground economy. The study addresses the policy relevant issues in a technical fashion by using monetary approach with some extensions in the developing countries context like Pakistan over a period of 1975–2010. The study at first finds the long-run relationship between the currency in circulation and other variables (i.e., GNP, tax revenue as percentage of total revenue, interest rate on saving deposits and inflation rates) and subsequently used their results to infer the size of the informal sector in Pakistan’s economy. The result shows that GNP and inflation rate both have a positive relationship with currency circulation, however, the magnitude of both variables on currency circulation is different, as if there is 1 % increase in GNP and price level, currency circulation increases by 0.86 and 0.091 % respectively. The other variables i.e., tax revenues and interest rates are negatively associated with the currency circulation in the long-run. However, these results are disappearing in the short-run. On the basis of cointegration results, the study concludes that Pakistan’s underground economy increases from less than 30 % in 1975 to 19.8 % in 2010. A change in the size of the shadow economy reflected in a change in monetary indicators. Rising activity in the shadow economy is likely to push up the demand for currency in Pakistan. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11135-013-9987-1
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Springer in its journal Quality & Quantity.

    Volume (Year): 49 (2015)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 295-317

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:49:y:2015:i:1:p:295-317
    DOI: 10.1007/s11135-013-9987-1
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springer.com

    Order Information: Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11135

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as
    in new window


    1. Corina - Maria Ene & Andrei Stefanescu, 2011. "Size And Implication Of Underground Economy In Romania - A Mimic Approach," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 1(13), pages 1-8.
    2. Blackburn, Keith & Bose, Niloy & Capasso, Salvatore, 2012. "Tax evasion, the underground economy and financial development," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 243-253.
    3. M. Ali Kemal, 2007. "A Fresh Assessment of the Underground Economy and Tax Evasion in Pakistan : Causes, Consequences, and Linkages with the Formal Economy," Microeconomics Working Papers 22200, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    4. Giorgio Gobbi & Roberta Zizza, 2007. "Does the Underground Economy Hold Back Financial Deepening? Evidence from the Italian Credit Market," CEP Discussion Papers dp0789, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Benno Torgler & Friedrich Schneider & Christoph Schaltegger, 2010. "Local autonomy, tax morale, and the shadow economy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 144(1), pages 293-321, July.
    6. Q M Ahmed & M Haider Hussain, 2008. "Estimating the Black Economy through a Monetary Approach: A Case Study of Pakistan," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 13(1), pages 45-60, March.
    7. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Ulrich Thießen, 2011. "The Shadow Economy in OECD Countries: Panel-Data Evidence," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1122, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Ghiath Shabsigh, 1995. "The Underground Economy; Estimation, and Economic and Policy Implications: The Case of Pakistan," IMF Working Papers 95/101, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Muhammad Farooq Arby & Muhammad Jahanzeb Malik & Muhammad Nadim Hanif, 2010. "The Size of Informal Economy in Pakistan," Working Papers id:2493, eSocialSciences.
    10. Fethi Ogunc & Gokhan Yilmaz, 2000. "Estimating The Underground Economy In Turkey," Discussion Papers 0004, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    11. Friedrich Schneider & Dominik Enste, 1999. "Shadow Economies Around the World - Size, Causes, and Consequences," CESifo Working Paper Series 196, CESifo Group Munich.
    12. Pedro Gomis-Porqueras & Adrian Peralta-Alva & Christopher J. Waller, 2011. "Quantifying the shadow economy: measurement with theory," Working Papers 2011-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    13. Bushra Yasmin & Hira Rauf, 2004. "Measuring the Underground Economy and its Impact on the Economy of Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 93-103, Jul-Dec.
    14. Park, Chang-Gyun & Hyun, Jin Kwon, 2003. "Examining the determinants of tax compliance by experimental data: a case of Korea," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 673-684, November.
    15. Loayza, Norman V., 1996. "The economics of the informal sector: a simple model and some empirical evidence from Latin America," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-162, December.
    16. Anton Marinov, 2008. "Hidden economy in the rural regions of Bulgaria," International Review on Public and Nonprofit Marketing, Springer;International Association of Public and Non-Profit Marketing, vol. 5(1), pages 71-80, June.
    17. Koji KANAO & Shigeyuki HAMORI, 2010. "The size of the underground economy in Japan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 893-902.
    18. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    19. Mehnaz Ahmed & Qazi Masood Ahmed, 1995. "Estimation of the Black Economy of Pakistan through the Monetary Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 791-807.
    20. Ahmed Gulzar & Novaira Junaid & Adnan Haider, 2010. "What is Hidden in the Hidden Economy of Pakistan? Size, Causes, Issues, and Implications," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 665-704.
    21. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
    22. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    23. Salman Aslam, 1998. "The Underground Economy and Tax Evasion in Pakistan: Annual Estimates (1960-1998) and the Impact of Dollarisation of the Economy," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 37(4), pages 621-631.
    24. World Bank, 2009. "World Development Indicators 2009," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 4367, December.
    25. Orviska, Marta & Caplanova, Anetta & Medved, Jozef & Hudson, John, 2006. "A cross-section approach to measuring the shadow economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 713-724, October.
    26. Buehn, Andreas & Schneider, Friedrich, 2009. "Corruption and the Shadow Economy: A Structural Equation Model Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 4182, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    27. M. Kabir Hassan & Jung Suk-Yu, 2010. "A Re-examination of the U.S. Underground Economy: Size, Estimation, and Policy Implications," NFI Working Papers 2010-WP-04, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    28. Tedds, Lindsay, 2005. "The Underground Economy in Canada," MPRA Paper 4229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. Guerino Ardizzi & Carmelo Petraglia & Massimiliano Piacenza & Gilberto Turati, 2014. "Measuring the Underground Economy with the Currency Demand Approach: A Reinterpretation of the Methodology, With an Application to Italy," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(4), pages 747-772, December.
    30. Kim, Sangheon, 2008. "Does political intention affect tax evasion?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 401-415.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:49:y:2015:i:1:p:295-317. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)

    or (Rebekah McClure)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.