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Causality between Money and Prices: Evidence from Pakistan

  • Fazal Husain

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

  • Tariq Mahmood

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

The relationship between money and prices has been a debated issue among economic schools of thought particularly between the Monetarists and the Keynesians. The monetarists claim that changes in money stocks cause changes in price levels. In other words, the direction of causation runs from money to prices implying that prices can be controlled through money supply. The keynesians, on the other hand, argue that money is important but is not responsible for changes in price levels. Instead, structural factors play important role suggesting that money supply is not an effective instrument to control price changes. The causal relationship between money and prices has been extensively tested in various countries. For example, Brillembourg and Khan (1979) examined this relationship in USA. Using Sims procedure for the period 1870–1975, they found unidirectional causality running from money to prices. Similar directions of causation are reported by Lee and Li (1983) and Ramachandran and Kamaiah (1992) who investigated the causal relationship in Singapore and India respectively. On the other hand, Aghevli and Khan (1978), while investigating the causal relationship in Brazil, Columbia, the Dominican Republic, and Thailand, found bidirectional causality between money and prices in these countries.

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File URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/1155-1161.pdf
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Article provided by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics in its journal The Pakistan Development Review.

Volume (Year): 37 (1998)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 1155-1161

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Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:1155-1161
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  1. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  2. Bijan B. Aghevli & Mohsin S. Khan, 1978. "Government Deficits and the Inflationary Process in Developing Countries (Déficits publics et processus inflationniste dans les pays en développement) (Los déficit públicos y el proceso inflaciona," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(3), pages 383-416, September.
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