Impact of Monetary and Macroeconomic Factors on Wheat Prices in Pakistan: Implications for Food Security
This paper attempts to evaluate the impact of monetary and macroeconomic factors on real wheat prices in Pakistan for the period 1976-2010, using Johansen’s co-integration approach. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test reveals that all the variables used are first-difference stationary, except the trade openness indicator, which is second-difference stationary. There is also a long-run equilibrium relationship among these variables. The results indicate that real money supply, openness of the economy, and the real exchange rate have a significant effect on real wheat prices in the long run. The impulse response function shows that a trade openness shock impacted wheat prices to some extent and that it took three to four years for prices to become stable, following the shock. The findings of the study suggest that the policy thrust should focus on increasing wheat supply in the country by enhancing production or by liberalizing trade. Efforts should also be directed toward stabilizing the value of the Pakistani rupee against foreign currencies, especially the US dollar.
Volume (Year): 16 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (Jan-Jun)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Intersection Main Boulevard Phase VI DHA and Burki Road, Lahore|
Phone: (92-42) 6560939
Web page: http://www.lahoreschoolofeconomics.edu.pk/EconomicsJournal/LJEIntro.aspx
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Peter S. Sephton, 1992. "Modelling the Link between Commodity Prices and Exchange Rates: The Tale of Daily Data," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(1), pages 156-171, February.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Ashfaque H. Khan & Mohammad Ali Qasim, 1996. "Inflation in Pakistan Revisited," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 747-759.
- Jeffrey H. Dorfman & William D. Lastrapes, 1996. "The Dynamic Responses of Crop and Livestock Prices to Money-Supply Shocks: A Bayesian Analysis Using Long-Run Identifying Restrictions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(3), pages 530-541.
- Asjaha, T.A. & Jooste, Andre, 2007. "The Effect of Monetary Changes on Relative Agricultural Prices," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 46(4), pages -, December.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000.
"Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J., 1997. "Structural Analysis of Vector Error Correction Models with Exogenous I(1) Variables," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9706, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Mohammad Hashem Pesaran & Richard J Smith & Yongcheol Shin, 1999. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," ESE Discussion Papers 38, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Zulfiqar Hyder & Sardar Shah, 2005.
"Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in Pakistan,"
- Zulfiqar Hyder & Sardar Shah, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in Pakistan," Macroeconomics 0510021, EconWPA.
- Zulfiqar Hyder & Sardar Shah, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 05, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
- Abdul Qayyum, 2006.
"Money, Inflation, and Growth in Pakistan,"
The Pakistan Development Review,
Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 203-212.
- Awokuse, Titus O., 2005. "Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Agricultural Prices," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages -, October.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Husain, Fazal & Mahmood, Tariq, 1998.
"Causality Between Money and Prices: Evidence from Pakistan,"
5021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Fazal Husain & Tariq Mahmood, 1998. "Causality between Money and Prices: Evidence from Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 37(4), pages 1155-1161.
- Husain, Fazal & Mahmood, Tariq, 1998. "Causality between Money and Prices:Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 2720, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Richard C. Barnett & David A. Bessler & Robert L. Thompson, 1983. "The Money Supply and Nominal Agricultural Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 65(2), pages 303-307.
- Mushtaq, Khalid & Dawson, P. J., 2002. "Acreage response in Pakistan: a co-integration approach," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 111-121, August.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
- Luci Ellis, 2001. "Measuring the Real Exchange Rate: Pitfalls and Practicalities," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Hallam, David & Zanoli, Raffaele, 1993. "Error Correction Models and Agricultural Supply Response," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 20(2), pages 151-166.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lje:journl:v:16:y:2011:i:1:p:95-110. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shahid Salahuddin)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.