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Impact of Monetary and Macroeconomic Factors on Wheat Prices in Pakistan: Implications for Food Security

Author

Listed:
  • Khalid Mushtaq

    () (Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan.)

  • Abdul Ghafoor

    () (Department of Marketing and Agribusiness, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan.)

  • Abedullah

    () (Department of Environmental and Resource Economics, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan.)

  • Farhan Ahmad

    ()

Abstract

This paper attempts to evaluate the impact of monetary and macroeconomic factors on real wheat prices in Pakistan for the period 1976-2010, using Johansen’s co-integration approach. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test reveals that all the variables used are first-difference stationary, except the trade openness indicator, which is second-difference stationary. There is also a long-run equilibrium relationship among these variables. The results indicate that real money supply, openness of the economy, and the real exchange rate have a significant effect on real wheat prices in the long run. The impulse response function shows that a trade openness shock impacted wheat prices to some extent and that it took three to four years for prices to become stable, following the shock. The findings of the study suggest that the policy thrust should focus on increasing wheat supply in the country by enhancing production or by liberalizing trade. Efforts should also be directed toward stabilizing the value of the Pakistani rupee against foreign currencies, especially the US dollar.

Suggested Citation

  • Khalid Mushtaq & Abdul Ghafoor & Abedullah & Farhan Ahmad, 2011. "Impact of Monetary and Macroeconomic Factors on Wheat Prices in Pakistan: Implications for Food Security," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(1), pages 95-110, Jan-Jun.
  • Handle: RePEc:lje:journl:v:16:y:2011:i:1:p:95-110
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Goodness C. AYE & Rangan GUPTA, 2012. "The Effects Of Monetary Policy On Real Farm Prices In South Africa," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(1), pages 147-158.
    2. Dmitry Burakov, 2016. "Elasticity of Agricultural Prices in Russia: An Empirical Study of Energy and Monetary Channels," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 551-562.
    3. Catherine Laroche-Dupraz & Marilyne Huchet-Bourdon & Anned-Linz Senadin, 2012. "Impact du taux de change sur la sécurité alimentaire des pays en développement," Post-Print hal-01208814, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wheat prices; co-integration; Pakistan.;

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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