IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/caa/jnlage/v63y2017i10id96-2016-agricecon.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of macroeconomic policies on national food security in Pakistan: simulation analyses under a simultaneous equations framework

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad AKBAR

    (Department of Mathematics and Statistics, International Islamic University Islamabad, Pakistan)

  • Abdul JABBAR

    (International Institute of Islamic Economics, International Islamic University Islamabad, Pakistan)

Abstract

The UN's Vision 2050 regarding food security emphasizes a doubling of food production by 2050 to ensure sufficient food availability. It should also be considered that economic accessibility to food depends mainly on food prices in developing countries. Vision 2050 requires proper planning at the national level to ensure that targets are met in the coming years. This study was conducted to analyse the impact of macroeconomic policy decisions on domestic food production and food inflation in Pakistan. A simultaneous equations model, estimated using the generalized method of moments (GMM) with annual data from 1963-1964 to 2013-2014, was developed. Simulation analyses were conducted by using the model to analyse the impact of monetary policy, fiscal policy and energy price policy; policy recommendations are also given. A significant increase in public expenditure for the development of infrastructure and the lowering of energy prices would significantly improve the availability and accessibility parameters of food security in Pakistan. The recent fall in energy prices will also be advantageous for both the availability as well as economic accessibility to food. Tight monetary policy for a limited time period may be helpful to control food inflation, but may also exert some minor adverse effects on food production. Moreover, monetary policy decisions must be taken while considering all sectors of the economy. The results of the study provide some important guidelines for national food security policy that may help in realising the UN's Vision 2050.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad AKBAR & Abdul JABBAR, 2017. "Impact of macroeconomic policies on national food security in Pakistan: simulation analyses under a simultaneous equations framework," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 63(10), pages 471-488.
    • Handle: RePEc:caa:jnlage:v:63:y:2017:i:10:id:96-2016-agricecon
    DOI: 10.17221/96/2016-AGRICECON
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/doi/10.17221/96/2016-AGRICECON.html
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: http://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/doi/10.17221/96/2016-AGRICECON.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17221/96/2016-AGRICECON?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Rana Ejaz Ali Khan & Toseef Azid & Mohammad Usama Toseef, 2012. "Determinants of food security in rural areas of Pakistan," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(12), pages 951-964, October.
    3. Hussain, Syed Sajidin & Mudasser, Muhammad, 2007. "Prospects for wheat production under changing climate in mountain areas of Pakistan - An econometric analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 494-501, May.
    4. Khalid Mushtaq & Abdul Ghafoor & Abedullah & Farhan Ahmad, 2011. "Impact of Monetary and Macroeconomic Factors on Wheat Prices in Pakistan: Implications for Food Security," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(1), pages 95-110, Jan-Jun.
    5. Devadoss, Stephen, 1991. "Tests Of Monetary Neutrality On Farm Output," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 16(01), pages 1-1, July.
    6. Uzma Iram & Muhammad S. Butt, 2004. "Determinants of household food security," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(8), pages 753-766, August.
    7. Rana Ejaz Ali Khan & Toseef Azid & Mohammad Usama Toseef, 2012. "Determinants of food security in rural areas of Pakistan," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(12), pages 951-964, October.
    8. Abid Hussain & Jayant Kumar Routray, 2012. "Status and factors of food security in Pakistan," International Journal of Development Issues, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 11(2), pages 164-185, June.
    9. Ambagna, Jean Joël & Kane, Gilles Quentin & Oyekale Abayomi, Samuel, 2012. "Subsistence Farming and Food Security in Cameroon: A Macroeconomic Approach," MPRA Paper 62756, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2012.
    10. Whitney Newey & Kenneth West, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    11. Yilmaz, Ibrahim & Akcaoz, Handan & Ozkan, Burhan, 2005. "An analysis of energy use and input costs for cotton production in Turkey," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 145-155.
    12. Zakir Hussain & Waqar Akram, 2008. "Persistent Food Insecurity from Policy Failures in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 817-834.
    13. Acharya, S. S. & Singh, Surjit & Sagar, Vidya, 2002. "Food Security: Agenda for the Asian Economics," 2002 ASAE 3rd International Conference, October 18-20, Jaipur, India 294688, Asian Society of Agricultural Economists (ASAE).
    14. John S. Lapp, 1990. "Relative Agricultural Prices and Monetary Policy," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(3), pages 622-630.
    15. Timmer, C. Peter, 2000. "The macro dimensions of food security: economic growth, equitable distribution, and food price stability," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 283-295, June.
    16. Uzma Iram & Muhammad S. Butt, 2004. "Determinants of household food security: An empirical analysis for Pakistan," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 31(8), pages 753-766, July.
    17. Tsangyao Chang & Wenshwo Fang & Li-Fang Wen, 2001. "Energy consumption, employment, output, and temporal causality: evidence from Taiwan based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(8), pages 1045-1056.
    18. Abid Hussain & Jayant Kumar Routray, 2012. "Status and factors of food security in Pakistan," International Journal of Development Issues, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 11(2), pages 164-185, June.
    19. Kargbo, J.M., 2005. "Impacts of monetary and macroeconomic factors on food prices in West Africa," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 44(2), pages 1-20, June.
    20. Bashir, Muhammad Khalid & Schilizzi, Steven & Pandit, Ram, 2012. "Food Security and Its Determinants at the Crossroads in Punjab, Pakistan," Working Papers 126033, University of Western Australia, School of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zulfiqar Ali WAGAN & Zhang CHEN & Hakimzadi SEELRO & Muhammad Sanaullah SHAH, 2018. "Assessing the effect of monetary policy on agricultural growth and food prices," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 64(11), pages 499-507.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yu, Xiaohua, 2014. "Monetary easing policy and long-run food prices: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 175-183.
    2. Bansal, Ravi & Kiku, Dana & Yaron, Amir, 2016. "Risks for the long run: Estimation with time aggregation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 52-69.
    3. Carlos Medel, 2017. "Forecasting Chilean inflation with the hybrid new keynesian Phillips curve: globalisation, combination, and accuracy," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 20(3), pages 004-050, December.
    4. Hansen, Lars Peter & Heaton, John & Luttmer, Erzo G J, 1995. "Econometric Evaluation of Asset Pricing Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(2), pages 237-274.
    5. Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 122-157, March.
    6. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Grenadier, Steven R., 2010. "Stock and bond returns with Moody Investors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 867-894, December.
    7. Dungey, M. H., 1999. "Decomposing exchange rate volatility around the Pacific Rim," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 525-535.
    8. Aleksejs Krecetovs & Pasquale Della Corte, 2016. "Macro uncertainty and currency premia," 2016 Meeting Papers 624, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2010. "New Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 33-62, February.
    10. Garcia, Rene & Bonomo, Marco, 2001. "Tests of conditional asset pricing models in the Brazilian stock market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 71-90, February.
    11. Paulo M. D. C. Parente & Richard J. Smith, 2021. "Quasi‐maximum likelihood and the kernel block bootstrap for nonlinear dynamic models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 377-405, July.
    12. Galindo, Luis M., 1995. "La hipótesis de expectativas en el mercado de Cetes en México," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 10(1), pages 67-88.
    13. Campbell, John Y., 2001. "Why long horizons? A study of power against persistent alternatives," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 459-491, December.
    14. Yenn-Ru Chen & Carl R. Chen & Chih-Kang Chu, 2014. "The Effect of Executive Stock Options on Corporate Innovative Activities," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 43(2), pages 271-290, June.
    15. Woutersen, Tiemen & Hausman, Jerry A., 2019. "Increasing the power of specification tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 211(1), pages 166-175.
    16. Panagiotis T. Konstantinou, 2005. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure : A Look at the Polish Interbank Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 70-91, May.
    17. Poumanyvong, Phetkeo & Kaneko, Shinji & Dhakal, Shobhakar, 2012. "Impacts of urbanization on national transport and road energy use: Evidence from low, middle and high income countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 268-277.
    18. G. C. Montes & L. V. Oliveira & A. Curi & R. T. F. Nicolay, 2016. "Effects of transparency, monetary policy signalling and clarity of central bank communication on disagreement about inflation expectations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(7), pages 590-607, February.
    19. Kleibergen, Frank & Paap, Richard, 2006. "Generalized reduced rank tests using the singular value decomposition," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 97-126, July.
    20. James M. Malcomson & Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2007. "Matching Frictions, Efficiency Wages, and Unemployment in the USA and the UK," Working Papers 2007-02, Brown University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:caa:jnlage:v:63:y:2017:i:10:id:96-2016-agricecon. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ivo Andrle (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cazv.cz/en/home/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.