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The Dynamic Responses of Crop and Livestock Prices to Money-Supply Shocks: A Bayesian Analysis Using Long-Run Identifying Restrictions

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  • Jeffrey H. Dorfman
  • William D. Lastrapes

Abstract

The impact of monetary policy on agriculture has been much debated. This study examines the dynamic responses of U.S. agricultural prices to money-supply shocks using three innovations. First, the variables' responses are identified by long-run money neutrality restrictions instead of the more common contemporaneous ordering. Second, a Bayesian approach to model uncertainty is used to add robustness to the estimation process. Third, agricultural prices are disaggregated into crop and livestock components. The empirical results find that both agricultural sectors benefit in the short run from positive money-supply shocks with agricultural prices increasing relative to the general price level. Copyright 1996, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey H. Dorfman & William D. Lastrapes, 1996. "The Dynamic Responses of Crop and Livestock Prices to Money-Supply Shocks: A Bayesian Analysis Using Long-Run Identifying Restrictions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(3), pages 530-541.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:78:y:1996:i:3:p:530-541
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1243271
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    Cited by:

    1. Khalid Mushtaq & Abdul Ghafoor & Abedullah & Farhan Ahmad, 2011. "Impact of Monetary and Macroeconomic Factors on Wheat Prices in Pakistan: Implications for Food Security," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(1), pages 95-110, Jan-Jun.
    2. Saghaian, Sayed H. & Reed, Michael R., 2014. "The Impact Of The Recent Federal Reserve Large-Scale Asset Purchases On The Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Historical Decomposition," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-16, April.
    3. Saghaian, Sayed & Reed, Michael, 2015. "Spillover Effects Of U.S. Federal Reserve’S Recent Quantitative Easing On Canadian Commodity Prices," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-33, January.
    4. Dorfman, Jeffrey H. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2004. "Generalized Hedge Ratio Estimation With An Unknown Model," 2004 Conference, April 19-20, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri 19024, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    5. Bakucs, Lajos Zoltan & Bojnec, Stefan & Ferto, Imre, 2006. "Monetary Impacts and Overshooting of Agricultural Prices in a Transition Economy: The Case of Slovenia," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25515, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Leister, Amanda M. & Lee, John G. & Paarlberg, Philip L., 2013. "Dynamic Effects of Drought on the U.S. Livestock Sector," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149946, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Holloway, Garth J. & Bayaner, Ahmet, 1998. "Conduct And Volatility In Food-Price Determination: Var Evidence From Turkish Agriculture," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20795, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Tan, Ying & Sha, Wenbiao & Paudel, Krishna, 2017. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Agricultural Price Index in China: A FAVAR Approach," 2017 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2017, Mobile, Alabama 252676, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    9. Orden, David, 2000. "Exchange Rate Effects On Agricultural Trade And Trade Relations," Proceedings of the 5th Agricultural and Food Policy Systems Information Workshop, 1999: Policy Harmonization and Adjustment in the North American Agricultural and Food Industry 16803, Farm Foundation, Agricultural and Food Policy Systems Information Workshops.
    10. Jaramillo-Villanueva, Jose Luis & Sarker, Rakhal, 2009. "Exchange Rate Sensitivity of Fresh Tomatoes Imports from Mexico to the United States," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51459, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Bakucs, Lajos Zoltan & Ferto, Imre, 2005. "The Influence of Macroeconomic Variables on the Hungarian Agriculture," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19232, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    12. Gong, Li & Kinnucan, Henry, 2015. "Effects of Recession and Dollar Weakening on the U.S. Agricultural Trade Balance," 2015 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2015, Atlanta, Georgia 196612, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    13. Bakucs, Lajos Zoltan & Ferto, Imre, 2005. "Monetary Impacts and Overshooting of Agricultural Prices in a Transition Economy," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24711, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Yu, Xiaohua, 2014. "Monetary easing policy and long-run food prices: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 175-183.

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