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Quantifying the Risk of Deflation

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  • Lutz KILIAN
  • Simone MANGANELLI

Abstract

We propose formal and quantitative measures of the risk that future inflation will be excessively high or low relative to the range preferred by a private sector agent. Unlike alternative measures of risk, our measures are designed to make explicit the dependence of risk measures on the private sector agent's preferences with respect to inflation. We illustrate our methodology by estimating the risks of deflation for the United States, Germany, and Japan for horizons of up to 2 years. The question of how large these risks are has been subject to considerable public debate. We find that, as of September 2002 when this question first arose, there was no evidence of substantial deflation risks for the United States and for Germany, contrary to some conjectures at the time. In contrast, there was evidence of substantial deflation risks in Japan. Copyright 2007 The Ohio State University.
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Suggested Citation

  • Lutz KILIAN & Simone MANGANELLI, 2010. "Quantifying the Risk of Deflation," EcoMod2004 330600076, EcoMod.
    • Handle: RePEc:ekd:003306:330600076
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fishburn, Peter C, 1977. "Mean-Risk Analysis with Risk Associated with Below-Target Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 116-126, March.
    2. Kilian, Lutz & Manganelli, Simone, 2003. "The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Quantifying and Forecasting Inflation Risks," CEPR Discussion Papers 3918, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    9. Engle, Robert F. & Manganelli, Simone, 2001. "Value at risk models in finance," Working Paper Series 75, European Central Bank.
    10. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, Paul, 1986. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 2, number 9780122951831 edited by Shell, Karl.
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