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Frequentist Inference in Weakly Identified DSGE Models

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  • Kilian, Lutz
  • Inoue, Atsushi
  • Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A.

Abstract

We show that in weakly identified models (1) the posterior mode will not be a consistent estimator of the true parameter vector, (2) the posterior distribution will not be Gaussian even asymptotically, and (3) Bayesian credible sets and frequentist confidence sets will not coincide asymptotically. This means that Bayesian DSGE estimation should not be interpreted merely as a convenient device for obtaining asymptotically valid point estimates and confidence sets from the posterior distribution. As an alternative, we develop new frequentist confidence sets for structural DSGE model parameters that remain asymptotically valid regardless of the strength of the identification.

Suggested Citation

  • Kilian, Lutz & Inoue, Atsushi & Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2009. "Frequentist Inference in Weakly Identified DSGE Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 7447, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7447
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    Cited by:

    1. Frank Schorfheide, 2011. "Estimation and Evaluation of DSGE Models: Progress and Challenges," NBER Working Papers 16781, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Òscar Jordà & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2010. "Path forecast evaluation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 635-662.
    3. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral, 2013. "Identification-robust analysis of DSGE and structural macroeconomic models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 340-350.
    4. Andrle, Michal, 2010. "A note on identification patterns in DSGE models," Working Paper Series 1235, European Central Bank.
    5. Nikolay Iskrev, 2010. "Evaluating the strength of identification in DSGE models. An a priori approach," 2010 Meeting Papers 1117, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Zhongjun Qu, 2011. "Inference and Speci?cation Testing in DSGE Models with Possible Weak Identification," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2011-058, Boston University - Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayes factor; Bayesian estimation; Confidence set; Dsge models; Identification; Inference; Likelihood ratio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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