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Data-Driven Nonparametric Spectral Density Estimators for Economic Time Series: A Monte Carlo Study

  • Kilian, L.
  • Bergean, I.

Spectral analysis at frequencies other than zero plays an increasingly important role in econometrics. A number of alternative automated data-driven procedures for nonparametric spectral density estimation have been suggested in the literature, but little is known about their finite-sample accuracy. We compare five such procedures in terms of their mean-squared percentage error across frequencies. Our data generating processes include autoregressive-moving average models and nonparametric models based on 16 commonly used macroeconomic time series. We find that for both quarterly and monthly data the autoregressive sieve estimator is the most reliable method overall.

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Paper provided by Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory in its series Papers with number 99-04.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:michet:99-04
Contact details of provider: Postal: UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN, DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS CENTER FOR RESEARCH ON ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL THEORY, ANN ARBOR MICHIGAN U.S.A.

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  1. Froeb, Luke & Koyak, Robert, 1994. "Measuring and comparing smoothness in time series the production smoothing hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 97-122.
  2. Robinson, P M, 1991. "Automatic Frequency Domain Inference on Semiparametric and Nonparametric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1329-63, September.
  3. Berkowitz, J. & Birgean, I. & Kilian, L., 1999. "On the Finite-Sample Accuracy of Nonparametric Resampling Algorithms for Economic Time Series," Papers 99-01, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
  4. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1997. "Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications," Working Papers 97-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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  13. Wouter J. den Haan & Andrew T. Levin, 2000. "Robust Covariance Matrix Estimation with Data-Dependent VAR Prewhitening Order," NBER Technical Working Papers 0255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  20. Otrok, Christopher, 2001. "Spectral Welfare Cost Functions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(2), pages 345-67, May.
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