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Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery

Author

Listed:
  • Kilian, Lutz
  • Nikos, Nomikos
  • Zhou, Xiaoqing

Abstract

Since the 1970s, exports and imports of manufactured goods have been the engine of international trade and much of that trade relies on container shipping. This paper introduces a new monthly index of the volume of container trade to and from North America. Incorporating this index into a structural macroeconomic VAR model facilitates the identification of shocks to domestic U.S. demand as well as foreign demand for U.S. manufactured goods. We show that, unlike in the Great Recession, the primary determinant of the U.S. economic contraction in early 2020 was a sharp drop in domestic demand. Although detrended data for personal consumption expenditures and manufacturing output suggest that the U.S. economy has recovered to near 90% of pre-pandemic levels as of March 2021, our structural VAR model shows that the component of manufacturing output driven by domestic demand had only recovered to 57% of pre-pandemic levels and that of real personal consumption only to 78%. The difference is mainly accounted for by unexpected reductions in frictions in the container shipping market.

Suggested Citation

  • Kilian, Lutz & Nikos, Nomikos & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2021. "Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery," CEPR Discussion Papers 16277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16277
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Morão, Hugo, 2025. "The economic consequences of fertilizer supply shocks," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Friederike Fourné & Lara Zarges, 2025. "Identifying Macroeconomic Shocks Using Firm-Level Data: Material Shortages in The German Manufacturing Sector," ifo Working Paper Series 418, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    4. Honghai Yu & Xianfeng Hao & Liangyu Wu & Yuqi Zhao & Yudong Wang, 2023. "Eye in outer space: satellite imageries of container ports can predict world stock returns," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-16, December.
    5. Dreger, Christian, 2023. "The impact of demand and supply shocks on inflation. Evidence for the US and the Euro area," MPRA Paper 116316, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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