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Macroeconomic Responses to Uncertainty Shocks: The Perils of Recursive Orderings

Author

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  • Kilian, Lutz
  • Plante, Michael D.
  • Richter, Alexander W.

Abstract

A common practice in empirical macroeconomics is to examine alternative recursive orderings of the variables in structural vector autogressive (VAR) models. When the implied impulse responses look similar, the estimates are considered trustworthy. When they do not, the estimates are used to bound the true response without directly addressing the identification challenge. A leading example of this practice is the literature on the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic activity. We prove by counterexample that this practice is invalid in general, whether the data generating process is a structural VAR model or a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model.

Suggested Citation

  • Kilian, Lutz & Plante, Michael D. & Richter, Alexander W., 2022. "Macroeconomic Responses to Uncertainty Shocks: The Perils of Recursive Orderings," CEPR Discussion Papers 17698, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17698
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    2. Giraldo, Carlos & Giraldo, Iader & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Uribe, Jorge M., 2025. "US uncertainty shocks, credit, production, and prices: The case of fourteen Latin American countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Morão, Hugo, 2024. "The impact of carbon policy news on the national energy industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    4. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2025. "Geopolitical Turning Points and Oil Price Responses: An IV-LP Approach," MPRA Paper 125586, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Mariusz Kapuściński, 2024. "The short-term effects of changes in capital regulations in Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 55(3), pages 255-286.
    6. Morão, Hugo, 2025. "The economic effects of tensions in energy transportation," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    7. Lukas Boer & Malte Rieth, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Import Tariffs and Trade Policy Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 2024/013, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Baxa, Jaromír & Šestořád, Tomáš, 2025. "Common and country-specific uncertainty shocks in europe: Why their nature matters for policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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