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Endogenous Uncertainty and Credit Crunches

Author

Listed:
  • Ludwig Straub
  • Robert Ulbricht

Abstract

We develop a theory of endogenous uncertainty in which the ability of investors to learn about firm-level fundamentals is impaired during financial crises. At the same time, higher uncertainty reinforces financial distress. Through this two-way feedback loop, a temporary financial shock can cause a persistent reduction in risky lending, output, and employment that coincides with increased uncertainty, default rates, credit spreads, and disagreement among forecasters. We embed our mechanism into standard real business cycle and New-Keynesian models and show how it generates endogenous and internally persistent processes for the efficiency and labour wedges.

Suggested Citation

  • Ludwig Straub & Robert Ulbricht, 2024. "Endogenous Uncertainty and Credit Crunches," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(5), pages 3085-3115.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:91:y:2024:i:5:p:3085-3115.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/restud/rdad110
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    Cited by:

    1. Anastasiia Antonova & Mykhailo Matvieiev & Céline Poilly, 2025. "Macroeconomic Shocks in the Fog: The Role of Endogenous Uncertainty," AMSE Working Papers 2538, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    2. Guo, Xiaofang & Jin, Xingye & Wang, Jingyu & Zuo, Congjiang, 2025. "Corporate integrity culture and debt costs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    3. Lutz Kilian & Michael D. Plante & Alexander W. Richter, 2025. "Macroeconomic Responses to Uncertainty Shocks: The Perils of Recursive Orderings," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 395-410, June.
    4. Murad, S.M. Woahid & Pathan, Shams & Durand, Robert B. & Zheng, Chen, 2025. "Understanding Bank-Level Uncertainty: New insights into banking activity and its macroeconomic impacts," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    5. Anastasiia Antonova & Mykhailo Matvieiev & Céline Poilly, 2024. "Supply Shocks in the Fog: The Role of Endogenous Uncertainty," AMSE Working Papers 2427, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    6. Ding Dong & Allen Hu & Zhaorui Li & Zheng Liu, 2025. "Information Acquisition and the Finance-Uncertainty Trap," Working Paper Series 2025-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Bambe, Bao-We-Wal, 2025. "Macroprudential policies and private domestic investment in developing countries: An instrumental variables approach," IDOS Discussion Papers 3/2025, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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