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Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand: Comment

Author

Listed:
  • Oliver de Groot
  • Alexander W. Richter
  • Nathaniel A. Throckmorton

Abstract

Basu and Bundick, 2017 showed an intertemporal preference volatility shock has meaningful effects on real activity in a New Keynesian model with Epstein and Zin, 1991 preferences. We show that when the distributional weights on current and future utility in the Epstein–Zin time aggregator do not sum to 1, there is an asymptote in the responses to such a shock with unit intertemporal elasticity of substitution. In the Basu–Bundick model, the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is set near unity and the preference shock only hits current utility, so the sum of the weights differs from 1. We show that when we restrict the weights to sum to 1, the asymptote disappears and preference volatility shocks no longer have large effects. We examine several different calibrations and preferences as potential resolutions with varying degrees of success.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver de Groot & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2018. "Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand: Comment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(4), pages 1513-1526, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:emetrp:v:86:y:2018:i:4:p:1513-1526
    DOI: 10.3982/ECTA15405
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    Cited by:

    1. Rendahl, Pontus & Freund, Lukas B., 2020. "Unexpected Effects: Uncertainty, Unemployment, and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 14690, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    2. Giovanni Pellegrino & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Caggiano, 2020. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy during Extreme Events," CESifo Working Paper Series 8561, CESifo.
    3. Giovanni Pellegrino & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Caggiano, 2023. "Uncertainty And Monetary Policy During The Great Recession," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(2), pages 577-606, May.
    4. Martin M. Andreasen & Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2021. "Why Does Risk Matter More in Recessions than in Expansions?," Monash Economics Working Papers 2021-11, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    5. Gareth Lui-Evans & Shalini Mitra, 2019. "Informality and Bank Stability," Working Papers 201903, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    6. Lutz Kilian & Michael D. Plante & Alexander W. Richter, 2025. "Macroeconomic Responses to Uncertainty Shocks: The Perils of Recursive Orderings," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 395-410, June.
    7. Oliver de Groot & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2022. "Valuation risk revalued," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(2), pages 723-759, May.
    8. Martin M. Andreasen & Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2021. "Why Does Risk Matter More in Recessions than in Expansions?," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0275, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    9. Eyquem, Aurélien & Poilly, Céline & Belianska, Anna, 2023. "On portfolio frictions, asset returns and volatility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    10. Mathias Krogh & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2024. "Real Activity and Uncertainty Shocks: The Long and the Short of It," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0310, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    11. Joonseok Oh & Anna Rogantini Picco, 2025. "Macro Uncertainty, Unemployment Risk, And Consumption Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 66(1), pages 287-312, February.
    12. Thomas J. Sargent & John Stachurski, 2024. "Dynamic Programming: Finite States," Papers 2401.10473, arXiv.org.
    13. Stachurski, John & Wilms, Ole & Zhang, Junnan, 2024. "Asset pricing with time preference shocks: Existence and uniqueness," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    14. OH, Joonseok; ROGANTINI PICCO, Anna, 2019. "Macro uncertainty and unemployment risk," Economics Working Papers ECO 2019/02, European University Institute.
    15. Oliver de Groot & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2018. "Valuation Risk Revalued," CDMA Working Paper Series 201803, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    16. Ying Tung Chan, 2019. "The Environmental Impacts and Optimal Environmental Policies of Macroeconomic Uncertainty Shocks: A Dynamic Model Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-26, September.
    17. Zhiting Wu, 2024. "The sensitivity of risk premiums to the elasticity of intertemporal substitution," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 53(2), pages 353-390, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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