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Valuation Risk Revalued

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Abstract

The recent asset pricing literature finds valuation risk is an important determinant of key asset pricing moments. Valuation risk is modelled as a time preference shock within Epstein-Zin recursive utility preferences. While this form of valuation risk appears to fit the data extremely well, we show the preference specification violates an economically meaningful restriction on the weights in the Epstein-Zin time-aggregator. The same model with the corrected preference specification performs nearly as well at matching asset pricing moments, but only if the risk aversion parameter is well above the accepted range of values used in the literature. When the corrected preference specification is combined with Bansal-Yaron long-run risk, the estimated model significantly downgrades the role of valuation risk in determining asset prices. The only significant contribution of valuation risk is to help match the volatility of the risk-free rate.

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  • Oliver de Groot & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2018. "Valuation Risk Revalued," Working Papers 1808, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:1808
    DOI: 10.24149/wp1808
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre-Carl Michaud & Pascal St-Amour, 2023. "Longevity, Health and Housing Risks Management in Retirement," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 23-18, Swiss Finance Institute.
    2. Thomas J. Sargent & John Stachurski, 2024. "Dynamic Programming: Finite States," Papers 2401.10473, arXiv.org.
    3. Stachurski, John & Wilms, Ole & Zhang, Junnan, 2024. "Asset pricing with time preference shocks: Existence and uniqueness," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    4. Stachurski, John & Wilms, Ole & Zhang, Junnan, 2024. "Asset pricing with time preference shocks: Existence and uniqueness," Other publications TiSEM 29da00af-3cca-4717-aa55-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Filep-Mosberger, Palma & Kaszab, Lorant, 2024. "The endogenous growth and asset prices nexus revisited with closed-form solution," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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