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Lutz Kilian

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Kilian, Lutz & Baumeister, Christiane, 2015. "Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014," CEPR Discussion Papers 10404, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Pourquoi les cours du pétrole ont-ils récemment chuté ?
      by Martin Anota in D'un champ l'autre on 2015-02-26 21:19:04
  2. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Seven Questions About The Recent Oil Price Slump
      by iMFdirect in iMFdirect on 2014-12-22 22:18:37
  3. Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2014. "The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions," International Finance Discussion Papers 1114, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Mentioned in:

    1. Les récessions américaines sont-elles déclenchées par les chocs pétroliers ?
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-09-27 15:30:00

RePEc Biblio mentions

As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography of Economics:
  1. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models
  2. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2012. "Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding The Dynamics Of Oil Market Var Models," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1166-1188, October.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models > Sign Restrictions

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian, 2010. "What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 539-573.

    Mentioned in:

    1. What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures? (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2010) in ReplicationWiki ()
  2. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2015. "Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 338-351, July.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach (J Business & Econ Statistics 2015) in ReplicationWiki ()
  3. Kilian, Lutz, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Long-Horizon Regressions?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 491-510, Sept.-Oct.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: what do we learn from long-horizon regressions? (Journal of Applied Econometrics 1999) in ReplicationWiki ()
  4. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market (AER 2009) in ReplicationWiki ()
  5. Lucas W. Davis & Lutz Kilian, 2011. "Estimating the effect of a gasoline tax on carbon emissions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(7), pages 1187-1214, November.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Estimating the effect of a gasoline tax on carbon emissions (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2011) in ReplicationWiki ()
  6. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2018. "Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Identification: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks: Comment," CESifo Working Paper Series 7166, CESifo.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Identification: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks: Comment (CESifo WP 2018) in ReplicationWiki ()
  7. Lutz Kilian & Tao Zha, 2002. "Quantifying the uncertainty about the half-life of deviations from PPP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(2), pages 107-125.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Quantifying the uncertainty about the half-life of deviations from PPP (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2002) in ReplicationWiki ()
  8. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 657-669.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2001) in ReplicationWiki ()
  9. Lucas W. Davis & Lutz Kilian, 2011. "The Allocative Cost of Price Ceilings in the U.S. Residential Market for Natural Gas," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(2), pages 212-241.

    Mentioned in:

    1. The Allocative Cost of Price Ceilings in the U.S. Residential Market for Natural Gas (JPE 2011) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Kilian, Lutz & Plante, Michael D. & Richter, Alexander W., 2024. "Geopolitical Oil Price Risk and Economic Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 19113, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Le Xu & Francesco Zanetti, 2025. "Charting the Uncharted: The (Un)Intended Consequences of Oil Sanctions and Dark Shipping," Economics Series Working Papers 1070, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

  2. Silvia Goncalves & Ana María Herrera & Lutz Kilian & Elena Pesavento, 2023. "State-Dependent Local Projections," Working Papers 2302, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Cited by:

    1. Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mork, Jente Esther & Van Robays, Ine, 2024. "Gas price shocks and euro area inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    2. William D. Larson & Andrew B. Martinez, 2024. "House Prices, Debt Burdens, and the Heterogeneous Effects of Mortgage Rate Shocks," Working Papers 2024-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    3. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Pesso, Tom, 2024. "Fiscal policy and inflation: accounting for non-linearities in government debt," Working Paper Series 2996, European Central Bank.
    4. Jessen, Jonas & Jessen, Robin & Galecka-Burdziak, Ewa & Góra, Marek & Kluve, Jochen, 2023. "The Micro and Macro Effects of Changes in the Potential Benefit Duration," IZA Discussion Papers 15978, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Tovar Jalles, João & Park, Donghyun & Qureshi, Irfan, 2024. "Public and Private Investment as Catalysts for Growth: An analysis of emerging markets and developing economies with a focus on Asia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    6. Bank for International Settlements, 2024. "Interest rate risk exposures of non-financial corporates and households," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 70, december.
    7. Eugene Dettaa & Endong Wang, 2024. "Inference in High-Dimensional Linear Projections: Multi-Horizon Granger Causality and Network Connectedness," Papers 2410.04330, arXiv.org.
    8. Castro Nofal, Bastian & Díaz, Juan D. & Gutiérrez Cubillos, Pablo & Hansen, Erwin, 2024. "On the robustness of the relationship between tax progressivity, growth, and inequality in the US," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    9. Endong Wang, 2024. "Structural counterfactual analysis in macroeconomics: theory and inference," Papers 2409.09577, arXiv.org.
    10. Juan R. Hernández & Mateo Hoyos & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2024. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets under Global Uncertainty," Working Papers DTE 634, CIDE, División de Economía.
    11. Haug, Alfred A. & Sznajderska, Anna, 2024. "Government spending multipliers: Is there a difference between government consumption and investment purchases?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    12. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2024. "Local Projections," NBER Working Papers 32822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Silvia Goncalves & Ana María Herrera & Lutz Kilian & Elena Pesavento, 2024. "Nonparametric Local Projections," Working Papers 2414, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    14. Karaki, Mohamad B. & Safieddine, Hadi, 2023. "Do defense news crowd out private investment?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    15. Emter, Lorenz & Setzer, Ralph & Zorell, Nico & Moura, Afonso S., 2024. "Monetary policy and growth-at-risk: the role of institutional quality," Working Paper Series 2989, European Central Bank.
    16. Di Serio, Mario, 2024. "Public debt determinants: A time-varying analysis of core and peripheral Euro area countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
    17. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Karin Klieber & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2024. "Machine Learning the Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks," Papers 2412.07649, arXiv.org.
    18. De Santis, Roberto A. & Tornese, Tommaso, 2024. "US monetary policy is more powerful in low economic growth regimes," Working Paper Series 2919, European Central Bank.

  3. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2023. "Heterogeneity in the Pass-Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices: A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand," CESifo Working Paper Series 10350, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Grigolon, Laura & Park, Eunseong & Remmy, Kevin, 2024. "Fueling Electrification: The Impact of Gas Prices on Hybrid Car Usage," CEPR Discussion Papers 18806, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Odran Bonnet & Étienne Fize & Tristan Loisel & Lionel Wilner, 2024. "Compensating against fuel price inflation: Price subsidies or transfers?," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-04799412, HAL.
    3. Mamipour, Siab & Salem, Ali Asghar & Sayadi, Mohammad & Azizkhani, Masoumeh, 2023. "Retail gasoline pricing in a subsidized energy market: An empirical analysis from AIDS model for Iran," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    4. Odran Bonnet & Étienne Fize & Tristan Loisel & Lionel Wilner, 2024. "Compensation against Fuel Inflation: Temporary Tax Rebates or Transfers?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10917, CESifo.
    5. Odran Bonnet & Etienne Fize & Tristan Loisel & Lionel Wilner, 2024. "Is carbon tax truly more salient? Evidence from fuel tourism at the France-Germany border," Working Papers 2024-06, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    6. M. ADAM & O.BONNET & e.FIZE & M. RAULT & T. LOISEL & L. WILNER, 2024. "Cross-border shopping for fuel at the France-Germany border," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers 2024-08, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.

  4. Lutz Kilian & Michael D. Plante & Alexander W. Richter, 2023. "Estimating Macroeconomic News and Surprise Shocks," Working Papers 2304, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 22 Mar 2024.

    Cited by:

    1. Känzig, Diego R. & Williamson, Charles, 2024. "Unraveling the drivers of energy-saving technical change," Working Paper Series 2984, European Central Bank.

  5. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2023. "Oil Price Shocks and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 18416, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Aidala, Felix & Armantier, Olivier & Koşar, Gizem & Somerville, Jason & Topa, Giorgio & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2024. "Gasoline price changes and consumer inflation expectations: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 66-80.

  6. Goncalves, Silvia & Herrera, Ana Maria & Kilian, Lutz & Pesavento, Elena, 2022. "When do state-dependent local projections work?," CEPR Discussion Papers 17265, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Sarah Arndt & Zeno Enders, 2023. "The Transmission of Supply Shocks in Different Inflation Regimes," CESifo Working Paper Series 10839, CESifo.
    2. Sheng, Xin & Kim, Won Joong & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2023. "The impacts of oil price volatility on financial stress: Is the COVID-19 period different?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 520-532.
    3. De Santis, Roberto A. & Tornese, Tommaso, 2023. "Energy supply shocks’ nonlinearities on output and prices," Working Paper Series 2834, European Central Bank.
    4. Cloyne, James & Jordà , Òscar & Taylor, Alan M., 2023. "State-Dependent Local Projections: Understanding Impulse Response Heterogeneity," CEPR Discussion Papers 17903, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Jessen, Jonas & Jessen, Robin & Galecka-Burdziak, Ewa & Góra, Marek & Kluve, Jochen, 2023. "The Micro and Macro Effects of Changes in the Potential Benefit Duration," IZA Discussion Papers 15978, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Kole, Erik & van Dijk, Dick, 2023. "Moments, shocks and spillovers in Markov-switching VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(2).
    7. Syed Sadaqat Ali Shah & Muhammad Asim Afridi, 2023. "Cyclical variation of fiscal multipliers in Caucasus and Central Asia economies: an empirical evidence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4531-4563, December.
    8. Rünstler, Gerhard, 2024. "The macroeconomic impact of euro area labor market reforms: evidence from a narrative panel VAR," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    9. Bunce, Alan & Carrillo-Maldonado, Paul, 2023. "Asymmetric effect of the oil price in the ecuadorian economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    10. Miescu, Mirela & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2024. "Non-linear Dynamics of Oil Supply News Shocks," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2024/18, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    11. Finck, David & Hoffmann, Mathias & Hürtgen, Patrick, 2023. "On the empirical relevance of the exchange rate as a shock absorber at the zero lower bound," Discussion Papers 10/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.

  7. Lutz Kilian & Michael D. Plante & Alexander W. Richter, 2022. "Macroeconomic Responses to Uncertainty Shocks: The Perils of Recursive Orderings," CESifo Working Paper Series 10121, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Iader Giraldo & Carlos Giraldo & José E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jorge Mario Uribe, 2023. "US uncertainty shocks, credit, production, and prices: The case of fourteen Latin American countries," Documentos de trabajo 20667, FLAR.
    2. Lukas Boer & Malte Rieth, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Import Tariffs and Trade Policy Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 2024/013, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mariusz Kapuściński, 2022. "The short-term effects of changes in capital regulations in Poland," NBP Working Papers 350, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    4. Morão, Hugo, 2024. "The impact of carbon policy news on the national energy industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

  8. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2022. "A Broader Perspective on the Inflationary Effects of Energy Price Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 17763, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Robert Kelm & Izabela Sobiech Pellegrini, 2023. "Import inflacji i sprzężenie płacowo-cenowe w Polsce," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 48-70.
    2. Aidala, Felix & Armantier, Olivier & Koşar, Gizem & Somerville, Jason & Topa, Giorgio & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2024. "Gasoline price changes and consumer inflation expectations: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 66-80.
    3. Gründler, Daniel, 2024. "Does the inflation pass-through of gasoline price shocks depend on the level of inflation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    4. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2023. "What drives core inflation? The role of supply shocks," Working Paper Series 2875, European Central Bank.
    5. Michael Reiter & Christian Kimmich & Elisabeth Laa & Daniel Schmidtner & Adrian Wende & Klaus Weyerstraß, 2024. "Auswirkungen von Energiepreisen auf Österreichs Exportwirtschaft," FIW Research Reports series y:2024:m:05, FIW.
    6. Cebotari Livia & Paierele Ada, 2024. "Economic Effects of rising Energy Prices," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 18(1), pages 295-302.
    7. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2024. "A Global Oil Market Model with Shipping Costs," CESifo Working Paper Series 11551, CESifo.

  9. Lutz Kilian, 2021. "Comment on Giacomini, Kitagawa and Read's 'Narrative Restrictions and Proxies'," Working Papers 2117, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Cited by:

    1. Mathias Krogh & Giovanni Pellegrino, "undated". "Real Activity and Uncertainty Shocks: The Long and the Short of It," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0310, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".

  10. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2021. "The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23," CESifo Working Paper Series 9455, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Yoosoon Chang & Ana Maria Herrera & Elena Pesavento, 2023. "Oil Prices Uncertainty, Endogenous Regime Switching, and Inflation Anchoring," CAEPR Working Papers 2023-002 Classification-C, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    2. Robert Amzallag, 2022. "The return of inflation: a banker’s perspective," CIRANO Burgundy Reports 2022rb-01, CIRANO.
    3. Tan, Xueping & Zhong, Yiran & Vivian, Andrew & Geng, Yong & Wang, Ziyi & Zhao, Difei, 2024. "Towards an era of multi-source uncertainty: A systematic and bibliometric analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    4. Thakuriah, Piyushimita (Vonu), 2024. "Disentangling policy and structural effects on car-ownership for car-owning and carless US households during and after the COVID-19 pandemic," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 20-33.
    5. Hie Joo Ahn & Choongryul Yang, 2022. "Effects of Monetary Policy on Household Expectations: The Role of Homeownership," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-065, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2023. "A broader perspective on the inflationary effects of energy price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    7. Kyriazis, Nikolaos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Tzeremes, Panayiotis & Corbet, Shaen, 2024. "Examining spillovers and connectedness among commodities, inflation, and uncertainty: A quantile-VAR framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Zolfaghari, Mehdi, 2023. "How does US tariff policy affect the relationship among crude oil, the US dollar and metal markets?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    9. Tian, Xuelin & An, Chunjiang & Chen, Zhikun, 2023. "The role of clean energy in achieving decarbonization of electricity generation, transportation, and heating sectors by 2050: A meta-analysis review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    10. Casoli, Chiara & Manera, Matteo & Valenti, Daniele, 2022. "Energy shocks in the Euro area: disentangling the pass-through from oil and gas prices to inflation," FEEM Working Papers 329739, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    11. Aidala, Felix & Armantier, Olivier & Koşar, Gizem & Somerville, Jason & Topa, Giorgio & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2024. "Gasoline price changes and consumer inflation expectations: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 66-80.
    12. Turco, Enrico & Bazzana, Davide & Rizzati, Massimiliano & Ciola, Emanuele & Vergalli, Sergio, 2022. "Energy price shocks and stabilization policies in a multi-agent macroeconomic model for the Euro Area," FEEM Working Papers 324171, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    13. Zheng, Tingguo & Gong, Lu & Ye, Shiqi, 2023. "Global energy market connectedness and inflation at risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    14. Meng, Xin & Yu, Yanni, 2023. "Does the Russia-Ukraine conflict affect gasoline prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    15. Felix Kapfhammer, 2023. "The Economic Consequences of Effective Carbon Taxes," Working Papers No 01/2023, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    16. Yoosoon Chang & Fabio Gómez-Rodríguez & Mr. Gee Hee Hong, 2022. "The Effects of Economic Shocks on Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations," IMF Working Papers 2022/132, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Ding, Shusheng & Zheng, Dandan & Cui, Tianxiang & Du, Min, 2023. "The oil price-inflation nexus: The exchange rate pass- through effect," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    18. Abubakar, Attahir B. & Karimu, Suale & Mamman, Suleiman O., 2024. "Inflation effects of oil and gas prices in the UK: Symmetries and asymmetries," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    19. Liu, Minghao & Gou, Zhonghua, 2024. "Examining the relationship between dwelling energy efficiency and fuel poverty for retrofit strategies: A case study of the United Kingdom," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    20. Banerjee, Joshua J., 2024. "Inflationary oil shocks, fiscal policy, and debt dynamics: New evidence from oil-importing OECD economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    21. Szafranek, Karol & Szafrański, Grzegorz & Leszczyńska-Paczesna, Agnieszka, 2024. "Inflation returns. Revisiting the role of external and domestic shocks with Bayesian structural VAR," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 789-810.
    22. Mishra, Brajesh & Ghosh, Sajal & Kanjilal, Kakali, 2023. "Policies to reduce India's crude oil import dependence amidst clean energy transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    23. Aloui, Riadh & Ben Jabeur, Sami & Rezgui, Hichem & Ben Arfi, Wissal, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and commodity future returns: Fresh insights from dynamic copula conditional value-at-risk approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    24. Costin Radu Boldea & Bogdan Ion Boldea & Tiberiu Iancu, 2023. "The Pandemic Waves’ Impact on the Crude Oil Price and the Rise of Consumer Price Index: Case Study for Six European Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-15, April.
    25. An, Zidong & Sheng, Xuguang Simon & Zheng, Xinye, 2023. "What is the role of perceived oil price shocks in inflation expectations?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    26. N. Mirza & B. Naqvi & S.K.A. Rizvi & S. Boubaker, 2023. "Exchange Rate Pass-through and Inflation Targeting Regime under Energy Price Shocks," Post-Print hal-04435474, HAL.
    27. Nodis Ionut Catalin & Pitorac Ruxandra Ioana, 2023. "Impact Of The Russian - Ukrainian Conflict On Romanian Inflation," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 5, pages 64-74, October.
    28. Çakır, Metin & Pérez, Ana M. & Arita, Shawn & Cooper, Joseph & Nemec Boehm, Rebecca, 2024. "Perspectives on high U.S. retail food prices during 2020–2022," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    29. Cao, Fangzhi & Su, Chi-Wei & Sun, Dian & Qin, Meng & Umar, Muhammad, 2024. "U.S. monetary policy: The pushing hands of crude oil price?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    30. Wildauer, Rafael & Kohler, Karsten & Aboobaker, Adam & Guschanski, Alexander, 2023. "Energy price shocks, conflict inflation, and income distribution in a three-sector model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    31. Shahzad, Umer & Orsi, Bianca & Sharma, Gagan Deep, 2024. "Managing inflation expectations and the efficiency of monetary policy responses to energy crises," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    32. Shiu‐Sheng Chen, 2023. "A direct approach to Kilian–Lewis style counterfactual analysis in vector autoregression models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 1068-1076, November.
    33. Ondřej Bednář & Andrea Čečrdlová & Božena Kadeřábková & Pavel Řežábek, 2022. "Energy Prices Impact on Inflationary Spiral," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-25, May.
    34. Ahmed, Rizwan & Chen, Xihui Haviour & Kumpamool, Chamaiporn & Nguyen, Dung T.K., 2023. "Inflation, oil prices, and economic activity in recent crisis: Evidence from the UK," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    35. Gründler, Daniel, 2024. "Does the inflation pass-through of gasoline price shocks depend on the level of inflation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    36. Iana Liadze & Corrado Macchiarelli & Paul Mortimer‐Lee & Patricia Sanchez Juanino, 2023. "Economic costs of the Russia‐Ukraine war," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 874-886, April.
    37. Diaz, Elena Maria & Cunado, Juncal & de Gracia, Fernando Perez, 2023. "Commodity price shocks, supply chain disruptions and U.S. inflation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    38. Ruiz, Miguel Haro & Schult, Christoph & Wunder, Christoph, 2024. "The effects of the Iberian exception mechanism on wholesale electricity prices and consumer inflation: A synthetic-controls approach," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2024, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    39. Zhang, Long & Padhan, Hemachandra & Singh, Sanjay Kumar & Gupta, Monika, 2024. "The impact of renewable energy on inflation in G7 economies: Evidence from artificial neural networks and machine learning methods," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    40. Aharon, David Y. & Azman Aziz, Mukhriz Izraf & Kallir, Ido, 2023. "Oil price shocks and inflation: A cross-national examination in the ASEAN5+3 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    41. Mirza, Nawazish & Naqvi, Bushra & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "Fiscal or monetary? Efficacy of regulatory regimes and energy trilemma of the inflation reduction act (IRA)," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    42. Diaz, Elena Maria & Cunado, Juncal & de Gracia, Fernando Perez, 2024. "Global drivers of inflation: The role of supply chain disruptions and commodity price shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    43. Li, Ye & Chen, Yiyan & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and crude oil price predictability: Novel decomposition ensemble approach based ternary interval number series," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    44. Benk, Szilard & Gillman, Max, 2023. "Identifying money and inflation expectation shocks to real oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    45. Diab, Sara & Karaki, Mohamad B., 2023. "Do increases in gasoline prices cause higher food prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    46. Batten, Jonathan A. & Mo, Di & Pourkhanali, Armin, 2024. "Can inflation predict energy price volatility?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    47. Bouri, Elie & Nekhili, Ramzi & Kinateder, Harald & Choudhury, Tonmoy, 2023. "Expected inflation and U.S. stock sector indices: A dynamic time-scale tale from inflationary and deflationary crisis periods," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    48. Ricciutelli, Francesco, 2024. "Energy Inflation and Consumption Inequality," MPRA Paper 120899, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    49. Magdalena Rykała & Małgorzata Grzelak & Łukasz Rykała & Daniela Voicu & Ramona-Monica Stoica, 2023. "Modeling Vehicle Fuel Consumption Using a Low-Cost OBD-II Interface," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-23, October.
    50. Sugra Humbatova & Afag Huseyn & Natig Gadim-Oglu Hajiyev, 2023. "Impact of Oil Factor on Investment: The Case of Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 129-148, March.
    51. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2024. "Functional Oil Price Expectations Shocks and Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 10998, CESifo.
    52. Li, Houjian & Huang, Xinya & Guo, Lili, 2023. "Extreme risk dependence and time-varying spillover between crude oil, commodity market and inflation in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    53. Ren, Yi-Shuai & Klein, Tony & Jiang, Yong & Ma, Chao-Qun & Yang, Xiao-Guang, 2024. "Dynamic spillovers among global oil shocks, economic policy uncertainty, and inflation expectation uncertainty under extreme shocks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    54. Perico Ortiz, Daniel, 2023. "Inflation news coverage, expectations and risk premium," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 05/2023, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    55. Grzegorz Przekota & Anna Szczepańska-Przekota, 2022. "Pro-Inflationary Impact of the Oil Market—A Study for Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-19, April.
    56. Ubay Pérez-Granja & Ascensión Andina-Díaz & Juan Luis Jiménez, 2024. "Volcanic eruptions and tourism prosocial consumption," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(8), pages 1973-2001, December.

  11. Lutz Kilian & Nikos Nomikos & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2021. "Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery," CESifo Working Paper Series 9154, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Dreger, Christian, 2023. "The impact of demand and supply shocks on inflation. Evidence for the US and the Euro area," MPRA Paper 116316, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Honghai Yu & Xianfeng Hao & Liangyu Wu & Yuqi Zhao & Yudong Wang, 2023. "Eye in outer space: satellite imageries of container ports can predict world stock returns," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-16, December.

  12. Kilian, Lutz & Inoue, Atsushi, 2020. "The Role of the Prior in Estimating VAR Models with Sign Restrictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15545, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Andres–Escayola, Erik & Berganza, Juan Carlos & Campos, Rodolfo G. & Molina, Luis, 2023. "A BVAR toolkit to assess macrofinancial risks in Brazil and Mexico," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(1).
    2. Lutz Kilian, 2019. "Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling," CESifo Working Paper Series 7902, CESifo.
    3. Bruna, Karel & Van Tran, Quang, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on EUR/USD exchange rate and structural shock decomposition in a BVAR model with sign restriction," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    4. Martin Stuermer, 2022. "Non-renewable resource extraction over the long term: empirical evidence from global copper production," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 35(3), pages 617-625, December.
    5. Katarzyna Budnik & Gerhard Rünstler, 2023. "Identifying structural VARs from sparse narrative instruments: Dynamic effects of US macroprudential policies," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 186-201, March.
    6. Khalil, Makram & Weber, Marc-Daniel, 2022. "Chinese supply chain shocks," Discussion Papers 44/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Jochen Güntner & Magnus Reif & Maik Wolters, 2024. "Sudden stop: Supply and demand shocks in the German natural gas market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1282-1300, November.
    8. Luca Baldo & Elisa Bonifacio & Marco Brandi & Michelina Lo Russo & Gianluca Maddaloni & Andrea Nobili & Giorgia Rocco & Gabriele Sene & Massimo Valentini, 2021. "Inside the black box: tools for understanding cash circulation," Mercati, infrastrutture, sistemi di pagamento (Markets, Infrastructures, Payment Systems) 7, Bank of Italy, Directorate General for Markets and Payment System.
    9. Boer, Lukas & Pescatori, Andrea & Stuermer, Martin, 2021. "Energy Transition Metals," MPRA Paper 110364, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Szafranek, Karol & Szafrański, Grzegorz & Leszczyńska-Paczesna, Agnieszka, 2024. "Inflation returns. Revisiting the role of external and domestic shocks with Bayesian structural VAR," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 789-810.
    11. Breitenlechner, Max & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2022. "What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 45-60.
    12. Kilian, Lutz, 2020. "Understanding the Estimation of Oil Demand and Oil Supply Elasticities," CEPR Discussion Papers 15244, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2020. "Joint Bayesian inference about impulse responses in VAR models," CFS Working Paper Series 650, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    14. Paul Carrillo‐Maldonado, 2023. "Partial identification for growth regimes: The case of Latin American countries," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 557-583, July.
    15. Ronicle, David, 2022. "Turning in the widening gyre: monetary and fiscal policy in interwar Britain," Bank of England working papers 968, Bank of England.
    16. Carrillo-Maldonado, Paul & Díaz-Cassou, Javier, 2023. "An anatomy of external shocks in the Andean region," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    17. Diegel, Max & Nautz, Dieter, 2021. "Long-term inflation expectations and the transmission of monetary policy shocks: Evidence from a SVAR analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    18. Herwartz, Helmut & Wang, Shu, 2023. "Point estimation in sign-restricted SVARs based on independence criteria with an application to rational bubbles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

  13. Lutz Kilian, 2020. "Understanding the Estimation of Oil Demand and Oil Supply Elasticities," CESifo Working Paper Series 8567, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2019. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates," Working Papers 1914, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Odran Bonnet & Étienne Fize & Tristan Loisel & Lionel Wilner, 2024. "Compensating against fuel price inflation: Price subsidies or transfers?," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-04799412, HAL.
    3. Lutz Kilian, 2019. "Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling," CESifo Working Paper Series 7902, CESifo.
    4. Storrøsten, Halvor Briseid, 2024. "U.S. light tight oil supply flexibility - A multivariate dynamic model for production and rig activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    5. Ron Alquist & Karlye Dilts Stedman & R. Jay Kahn, 2022. "Foreign Reserve Management and U.S. Money Market Liquidity: A Cost of Exorbitant Privilege," Research Working Paper RWP 22-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    6. Brandon Schaufele & Jennifer Winter, 2023. "Production Controls in Heavy Oil and Bitumen Markets: Surplus Transfer Due to Alberta’s Curtailment Policy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-24, January.
    7. Meng, Xin & Yu, Yanni, 2023. "Does the Russia-Ukraine conflict affect gasoline prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    8. Herwartz, Helmut & Theilen, Bernd & Wang, Shu, 2024. "Unraveling the structural sources of oil production and their impact on CO2 emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    9. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Frode Martin Nordvik & Maximilian Rohrer, 2021. "Supply flexibility in the shale patch: Evidence from North Dakota," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 273-292, April.
    10. Kilian, Lutz, 2023. "How to Construct Monthly VAR Proxies Based on Daily Futures Market Surprises," CEPR Discussion Papers 18348, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Odran Bonnet & Étienne Fize & Tristan Loisel & Lionel Wilner, 2024. "Compensation against Fuel Inflation: Temporary Tax Rebates or Transfers?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10917, CESifo.
    12. Hong, Yanran & Wang, Lu & Liang, Chao & Umar, Muhammad, 2022. "Impact of financial instability on international crude oil volatility: New sight from a regime-switching framework," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    13. Daniele Valenti & Andrea Bastianin & Matteo Manera, 2022. "A weekly structural VAR model of the US crude oil market," Working Papers 2022.11, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    14. Prest, Brian C., 2025. "Where Does the Marginal Methane Molecule Come From? Implications of LNG Exports for US Natural Gas Supply and Methane Emissions," RFF Working Paper Series 25-05, Resources for the Future.
    15. Jihad El Hokayem & Ibrahim Jamali & Ale Hejase, 2024. "A forecasting model for oil prices using a large set of economic indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1615-1624, August.
    16. Kilian, Lutz, 2024. "How to construct monthly VAR proxies based on daily surprises in futures markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    17. Braun, Robin, 2021. "The importance of supply and demand for oil prices: evidence from non-Gaussianity," Bank of England working papers 957, Bank of England.
    18. Mohamad Husam Helmi & Abdurrahman Nazif Çatık & Çağla Bucak & Esra Ballı & Coşkun Akdeniz, 2024. "Time-Varying Income and Price Elasticities of Oil Demand in OECD Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(6), pages 303-311, November.
    19. Wang, Fangzhi & Liao, Hua, 2022. "Unexpected economic growth and oil price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    20. Azhgaliyeva, Dina & Kapsalyamova, Zhanna & Mishra, Ranjeeta, 2022. "Oil price shocks and green bonds: An empirical evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    21. Lomonosov, Daniil & Polbin, Andrey & Fokin, Nikita, 2020. "Влияние Шоков Мировой Деловой Активности, Предложения Нефти И Спекулятивных Нефтяных Шоков На Экономику Рф [The impact of global economic activity, oil supply and speculative oil shocks on the Russ," MPRA Paper 106019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Pan, Zhiyuan & Huang, Xiao & Liu, Li & Huang, Juan, 2023. "Geopolitical uncertainty and crude oil volatility: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    23. Castro, César & Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca, 2024. "The impact of oil shocks on the stock market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    24. Sanctuary, Mark & Fagerström, Anton & Feiz, Roozbeh & Lönnqvist, Tomas & Lindfors, Axel, 2024. "The fuel security and climate policy nexus," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 501, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.
    25. Bilgin, Doga & Ellwanger, Reinhard, 2024. "A simple model of global fuel consumption," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    26. Zheng, Xinzhu & Wang, Ranran & Liddle, Brantley & Wen, Yuli & Lin, Lu & Wang, Lining, 2022. "Crude oil footprint in the rapidly changing world and implications from their income and price elasticities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    27. Baghish Ahmadov, 2024. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Import of Capital Goods in Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(3), pages 512-517, May.
    28. Bo Yu & Zhijia Chang, 2024. "Connectedness of Carbon Price and Energy Price under Shocks: A Study Based on Positive and Negative Price Volatility," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-26, June.
    29. Andrea Carriero & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Tornese, 2023. "Blended Identification in Structural VARs," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23200, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    30. Asad Dossani & John Elder, 2024. "Uncertainty and investment: Evidence from domestic oil rigs," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 323-340, February.
    31. Daniil Lomonosov & Andrey Polbin & Nikita Fokin, 2021. "The Impact of Global Economic Activity, Oil Supply and Speculative Oil Shocks on the Russian Economy," HSE Economic Journal, National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 227-262.
    32. Puch González, Luis Antonio & Ruiz, Jesús, 2024. "The asymmetry puzzle: the supply chain disruptions news shocks effects on oil prices and inflation," UC3M Working papers. Economics 43758, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.

  14. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2020. "Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and Inflation Expectations: A New Model and New Facts," CESifo Working Paper Series 8516, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Kilian, Lutz & Inoue, Atsushi, 2020. "The Role of the Prior in Estimating VAR Models with Sign Restrictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15545, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Krystyna Gomółka & Piotr Kasprzak, 2022. "Household Ability of Expenditures on Electricity and Energy Resources in the Countries That Joined the EU after 2004," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-21, April.
    3. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Schroer, Colter, 2023. "Social and environmental events disrupt the relation between motor gasoline prices and market fundamentals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    4. Ahmad Al Humssi & Maria Petrovskaya & Milana Abueva, 2022. "Modelling the Impact of World Oil Prices and the Mining and Quarrying Sector on the United Arab Emirates’ GDP," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, December.
    5. Andreani, Michele & Giri, Federico, 2023. "Not a short-run noise! The low-frequency volatility of energy inflation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    6. Philipp F. M. Baumann & Enzo Rossi & Alexander Volkmann, 2020. "What Drives Inflation and How: Evidence from Additive Mixed Models Selected by cAIC," Papers 2006.06274, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    7. Boufateh, Talel & Saadaoui, Zied, 2021. "The time-varying responses of financial intermediation and inflation to oil supply and demand shocks in the US: Evidence from Bayesian TVP-SVAR-SV approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).

  15. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2020. "Joint Bayesian Inference about Impulse Responses in VAR Models," Working Papers 2022, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Cited by:

    1. Raffaella Giacomini & Toru Kitagawa & Matthew Read, 2023. "Identification and Inference under Narrative Restrictions," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2023-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2019. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates," Working Papers 1914, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2021. "The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23," CESifo Working Paper Series 9455, CESifo.
    4. Finck, David & Tillmann, Peter, 2022. "The macroeconomic effects of global supply chain disruptions," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2022, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    5. Kilian, Lutz & Inoue, Atsushi, 2020. "The Role of the Prior in Estimating VAR Models with Sign Restrictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15545, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Gao, Jiti & Peng, Bin & Wu, Wei Biao & Yan, Yayi, 2024. "Time-varying multivariate causal processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(1).
    7. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2023. "A broader perspective on the inflationary effects of energy price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    8. Kilian, Lutz & Nomikos, Nikos K. & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2020. "A quantitative model of the oil tanker market in the Arabian Gulf," CFS Working Paper Series 648, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    9. Chen, Zhengyang & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2025. "Modeling inflation expectations in forward-looking interest rate and money growth rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    10. Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia & Wong, Benjamin, 2021. "A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 415, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    11. Jochen Güntner & Magnus Reif & Maik Wolters, 2024. "Sudden stop: Supply and demand shocks in the German natural gas market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1282-1300, November.
    12. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2023. "Oil Price Shocks and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 18416, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco & Matthieu Tarbé, 2021. "Monetary-Fiscal Crosswinds in the European Monetary Union," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03474950, HAL.
    14. Kilian, Lutz, 2023. "How to Construct Monthly VAR Proxies Based on Daily Futures Market Surprises," CEPR Discussion Papers 18348, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Szafranek, Karol & Szafrański, Grzegorz & Leszczyńska-Paczesna, Agnieszka, 2024. "Inflation returns. Revisiting the role of external and domestic shocks with Bayesian structural VAR," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 789-810.
    16. Gründler, Daniel, 2024. "Does the inflation pass-through of gasoline price shocks depend on the level of inflation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    17. Paul Carrillo‐Maldonado, 2023. "Partial identification for growth regimes: The case of Latin American countries," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 557-583, July.
    18. Kilian, Lutz, 2024. "How to construct monthly VAR proxies based on daily surprises in futures markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    19. Mohamad B. Karaki & Andrios Neaimeh, 2024. "Do higher global oil and wheat prices matter for the wheat flour price in Lebanon?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 55(4), pages 559-571, July.
    20. Benk, Szilard & Gillman, Max, 2023. "Identifying money and inflation expectation shocks to real oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    21. Diab, Sara & Karaki, Mohamad B., 2023. "Do increases in gasoline prices cause higher food prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    22. Bingchun Liu & Xia Zhang & Yuan Gao & Minghui Xu & Xiaobo Wang, 2025. "China’s Energy Stock Price Index Prediction Based on VECM–BiLSTM Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-21, March.
    23. Diegel, Max & Nautz, Dieter, 2021. "Long-term inflation expectations and the transmission of monetary policy shocks: Evidence from a SVAR analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    24. Ding, Shusheng & Wang, Anqi & Cui, Tianxiang & Du, Anna Min & Zhou, Xinmiao, 2024. "Commodity market stability and sustainable development: The effect of public health policies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
    25. Finck, David & Tillmann, Peter, 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of global supply chain disruptions," IMFS Working Paper Series 178, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    26. Bruns, Martin, 2021. "Proxy Vector Autoregressions in a Data-rich Environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    27. Lukas Berend & Jan Pruser, 2024. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy via Common Cycles in the Euro Area," Papers 2410.05741, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    28. Lutz Kilian, 2025. "Impulse Response Diagnostics for Priors on Parameters in Structural Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2507, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    29. Max Breitenlechner & Martin Geiger & Daniel Gründler & Johann Scharler, 2024. "Sequencing the COVID‐19 Recession in the USA: What Were the Macroeconomic Drivers?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(1), pages 119-136, February.

  16. Silvia Goncalves & Ana María Herrera & Lutz Kilian & Elena Pesavento, 2020. "Impulse Response Analysis for Structural Dynamic Models with Nonlinear Regressors," Working Papers 2019, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Cited by:

    1. Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Alexey Khazanov & Molin Zhong, 2023. "Financial and Macroeconomic Data Through the Lens of a Nonlinear Dynamic Factor Model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-027, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2023. "Oil Price Shocks and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 18416, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Goncalves, Silvia & Herrera, Ana Maria & Kilian, Lutz & Pesavento, Elena, 2022. "When do state-dependent local projections work?," CEPR Discussion Papers 17265, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Martin Bruns & Michele Piffer, 2021. "Monetary policy shocks over the business cycle: Extending the Smooth Transition framework," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2021-07, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    5. Leonardo Nogueira Ferreira, 2023. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Financial Conditions, and the String Theory Revisited," Working Papers Series 573, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    6. Luca Eduardo Fierro & Mario Martinoli, 2024. "An Empirical Inquiry into the Distributional Consequences of Energy Price Shocks," LEM Papers Series 2024/30, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    7. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mertens, Elmar, 2023. "Shadow-rate VARs," Discussion Papers 14/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Eugene Dettaa & Endong Wang, 2024. "Inference in High-Dimensional Linear Projections: Multi-Horizon Granger Causality and Network Connectedness," Papers 2410.04330, arXiv.org.
    9. Endong Wang, 2024. "Structural counterfactual analysis in macroeconomics: theory and inference," Papers 2409.09577, arXiv.org.
    10. Lucidi, Francesco Simone & Pisa, Marta Maria & Tancioni, Massimiliano, 2024. "The effects of temperature shocks on energy prices and inflation in the Euro Area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    11. Silvia Goncalves & Ana María Herrera & Lutz Kilian & Elena Pesavento, 2024. "Nonparametric Local Projections," Working Papers 2414, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    12. Giovanni Ballarin, 2023. "Impulse Response Analysis of Structural Nonlinear Time Series Models," Papers 2305.19089, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2025.
    13. Dario Caldara & Chiara Scotti & Molin Zhong, 2021. "Macroeconomic and Financial Risks: A Tale of Mean and Volatility," International Finance Discussion Papers 1326, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  17. Lutz Kilian & Nikos Nomikos & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2020. "A Quantitative Model of the Oil Tanker Market in the Arabian Gulf," CESifo Working Paper Series 8332, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. David S. Jacks & Martin Stuermer, 2021. "Dry Bulk Shipping and the Evolution of Maritime Transport Costs, 1850-2020," NBER Working Papers 28627, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  18. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2020. "The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 8153, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Martin Bruns & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2023. "Have the Effects of Shocks to Oil Price Expectations Changed?: Evidence from Heteroskedastic Proxy Vector Autoregressions," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2036, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Stewart, Shamar L. & Isengildina Massa, Olga, 2024. "Food & Oil Price Volatility Dynamics: Insights from a TVP-SVAR-DCC-MIDAS Model," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343936, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Esmaeili, Parisa & Rafei, Meysam & Salari, Mahmoud & Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel, 2024. "From oil surges to renewable shifts: Unveiling the dynamic impact of supply and demand shocks in global crude oil market on U.S. clean energy trends," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    4. Herwartz, Helmut & Theilen, Bernd & Wang, Shu, 2024. "Unraveling the structural sources of oil production and their impact on CO2 emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    5. Banerjee, Joshua J., 2024. "Inflationary oil shocks, fiscal policy, and debt dynamics: New evidence from oil-importing OECD economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    6. Alsalman, Zeina & Herrera, Ana María & Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar, 2023. "Oil news shocks and the U.S. stock market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    7. Mohammed, Mikidadu & Barrales-Ruiz, Jose A., 2020. "Pandemics and Oil Shocks," EconStor Preprints 222268, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    8. Zeina Alsalman, 2023. "Oil price shocks and US unemployment: evidence from disentangling the duration of unemployment spells in the labor market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 479-511, July.
    9. Christiane Baumeister & James D. Hamilton, 2020. "Advances in Using Vector Autoregressions to Estimate Structural Magnitudes," NBER Working Papers 27014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Harrison, Andre & Liu, Xiaochun & Stewart, Shamar L., 2024. "Are exchange rates absorbers of global oil shocks? A generalized structural analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    11. Rausser, Gordon & Stuermer, Martin, 2020. "A Dynamic Analysis of Collusive Action: The Case of the World Copper Market, 1882-2016," MPRA Paper 104708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Shi, Xunpeng & Shen, Yifan, 2021. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and natural gas prices: Revisiting the Asian Premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    13. Kilian, Lutz, 2024. "How to construct monthly VAR proxies based on daily surprises in futures markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    14. Abiad, Abdul & Qureshi, Irfan A., 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    15. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James, 2020. "Advances in Structural Vector Autoregressions with Imperfect Identifying Information," CEPR Discussion Papers 14603, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    17. Dagher, Leila & Hasanov, Fakhri, 2022. "Oil Market Shocks and Financial Instability in Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 116079, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Ioannis Arampatzidis & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2022. "On the identification of the oil-stock market relationship," Working Paper series 22-15, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    19. Chigozie Chukwu & Aleksandar Vasilev & Shrabani Saha, 2024. "Measuring Business Cycle Stylized Facts in Selected Oil-Producing Economies: A Comparative Study," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 20(1), pages 89-121, August.
    20. Azhgaliyeva, Dina & Kapsalyamova, Zhanna & Mishra, Ranjeeta, 2022. "Oil price shocks and green bonds: An empirical evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    21. Lomonosov, Daniil & Polbin, Andrey & Fokin, Nikita, 2020. "Влияние Шоков Мировой Деловой Активности, Предложения Нефти И Спекулятивных Нефтяных Шоков На Экономику Рф [The impact of global economic activity, oil supply and speculative oil shocks on the Russ," MPRA Paper 106019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Delle Chiaie, Simona & Ferrara, Laurent & Giannone, Domenico, 2018. "Common factors of commodity prices," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 51.
    2. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2019. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates," Working Papers 1914, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Valérie Mignon & Jamel Saadaoui, 2023. "How political tensions and geopolitical risks impact oil prices?," Working Papers 2023.07, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    4. Li, Zheng-Zheng & Meng, Qin & Zhang, Linling & Lobont, Oana-Ramona & Shen, Yijuan, 2023. "How do rare earth prices respond to economic and geopolitical factors?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    5. Rodrigo da Silva Souza & Leonardo Bornacki Mattos, 2022. "Oil price shocks and global liquidity: macroeconomic effects on the Brazilian real," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 761-781, October.
    6. Ahmadi, Maryam & Manera, Matteo & Sadeghzadeh, Mehdi, 2019. "The investment-uncertainty relationship in the oil and gas industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    7. Zhang, Yulian & He, Xie & Nakajima, Tadahiro & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2020. "Oil, Gas, or Financial Conditions-Which One Has a Stronger Link with Growth?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    8. Lutz Kilian, 2019. "Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling," CESifo Working Paper Series 7902, CESifo.
    9. Christiane Baumeister & Pierre Guérin, 2020. "A Comparison of Monthly Global Indicators for Forecasting Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 8656, CESifo.
    10. Sheng, Xin & Kim, Won Joong & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2023. "The impacts of oil price volatility on financial stress: Is the COVID-19 period different?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 520-532.
    11. Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Sweidan, Osama D., 2020. "Do structural shocks in the crude oil market affect biofuel prices?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 183-193.
    12. Jihoon Lee & Hong Chong Cho, 2021. "Impact of Structural Oil Price Shock Factors on the Gasoline Market and Macroeconomy in South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, February.
    13. Lin, Boqiang & Song, Yijie, 2024. "Coal price shocks and economic growth: A province-level study of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    14. Reinhold Heinlein & Scott M. R. Mahadeo, 2023. "Oil and US stock market shocks: Implications for Canadian equities," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(1), pages 247-287, February.
    15. Lucey, Brian & Ren, Boru, 2021. "Does news tone help forecast oil?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    16. Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2020. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions," Working Papers 2020_08, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    17. Afees A. Salisu & Yinka S. Hammed & Ibrahim Ngananga Ouattara, 2023. "Climate Change, Technology Shocks and the US Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-22, October.
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    21. Chew Lian Chua & Sarantis Tsiaplias & Ruining Zhou, 2024. "Constructing a high‐frequency World Economic Gauge using a mixed‐frequency dynamic factor model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2212-2227, September.
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    49. Funashima, Yoshito, 2020. "Global economic activity indexes revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
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    109. Lyu, Yongjian & Yi, Heling & Wei, Yu & Yang, Mo, 2021. "Revisiting the role of economic uncertainty in oil price fluctuations: Evidence from a new time-varying oil market model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    110. Ederington, Louis H. & Fernando, Chitru S. & Lee, Thomas K. & Linn, Scott C. & Zhang, Huiming, 2021. "The relation between petroleum product prices and crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    111. Xia, Tian & Zhou, Hang, 2023. "Commodity terms of trade co-movement: Global and regional factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    112. Asad Dossani & John Elder, 2024. "Uncertainty and investment: Evidence from domestic oil rigs," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 323-340, February.
    113. Turgut Yokuş, 2024. "Early Warning Systems for World Energy Crises," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-18, March.
    114. Huang, Wanling & Mollick, Andre Varella, 2020. "Tight oil, real WTI prices and U.S. stock returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    115. Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Huang, Shiangtsz & Lin, Tzu-Yu, 2022. "How do oil prices affect emerging market sovereign bond spreads?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    116. Aktham Maghyereh & Hussein Abdoh, 2022. "Can news-based economic sentiment predict bubbles in precious metal markets?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-29, December.
    117. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein, 2021. "The effect of structural oil shocks on bank systemic risk in the GCC countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    118. Zhang, Zhikai & He, Mengxi & Zhang, Yaojie & Wang, Yudong, 2022. "Geopolitical risk trends and crude oil price predictability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    119. Lian, Ziying & Cai, Jun & Webb, Robert I., 2020. "Oil stocks, risk factors, and tail behavior," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    120. Clerides, Sofronis & Krokida, Styliani-Iris & Lambertides, Neophytos & Tsouknidis, Dimitris, 2022. "What matters for consumer sentiment in the euro area? World crude oil price or retail gasoline price?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    121. Daniil Lomonosov & Andrey Polbin & Nikita Fokin, 2021. "The Impact of Global Economic Activity, Oil Supply and Speculative Oil Shocks on the Russian Economy," HSE Economic Journal, National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 227-262.
    122. Amor Aniss Benmoussa, Reinhard Ellwanger, Stephen Snudden, 2023. "Carpe Diem: Can daily oil prices improve model-based forecasts of the real price of crude oil?," LCERPA Working Papers bm0141, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis.
    123. Tvedt, Jostein & Hovi, Inger Beate, 2024. "Container shipping: A market equilibrium perspective on freight rates formation post-Covid-19," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    124. Scott M. R. Mahadeo & Reinhold Heinlein & Gabriella Deborah Legrenzi, 2019. "Tracing the Genesis of Contagion in the Oil-Finance Nexus," CESifo Working Paper Series 7925, CESifo.

  20. Lutz Kilian, 2019. "Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling," CESifo Working Paper Series 7902, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Kilian, Lutz & Inoue, Atsushi, 2020. "The Role of the Prior in Estimating VAR Models with Sign Restrictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15545, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco & Nersisyan, Liana, 2023. "Oil Price Shocks and Bond Risk Premia: Evidence from a Panel of 15 Countries," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2023002, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    3. Zhang, Zhikai & Wang, Yudong & Xiao, Jihong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2023. "Not all geopolitical shocks are alike: Identifying price dynamics in the crude oil market under tensions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Banerjee, Joshua J., 2024. "Inflationary oil shocks, fiscal policy, and debt dynamics: New evidence from oil-importing OECD economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    5. Michał Rubaszek & Karol Szafranek, 2025. "The European energy crisis and the US natural gas market dynamics: a structural VAR investigation," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-22, February.
    6. Kilian, Lutz, 2020. "Understanding the Estimation of Oil Demand and Oil Supply Elasticities," CEPR Discussion Papers 15244, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Zeina Alsalman, 2023. "Oil price shocks and US unemployment: evidence from disentangling the duration of unemployment spells in the labor market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 479-511, July.
    8. Even Comfort Hvinden, 2019. "OPEC's crude game," Working Papers No 10/2019, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    9. Chen, Jianyu & Zhang, Jianshun, 2023. "Crude oil price shocks, volatility spillovers, and global systemic financial risk transmission mechanisms: Evidence from the stock and foreign exchange markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    10. Jihad El Hokayem & Ibrahim Jamali & Ale Hejase, 2024. "A forecasting model for oil prices using a large set of economic indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1615-1624, August.
    11. Paul Carrillo‐Maldonado, 2023. "Partial identification for growth regimes: The case of Latin American countries," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 557-583, July.
    12. Kilian, Lutz, 2024. "How to construct monthly VAR proxies based on daily surprises in futures markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    13. Palmén, Olli, 2020. "Sovereign default risk and credit supply: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    14. Braun, Robin, 2021. "The importance of supply and demand for oil prices: evidence from non-Gaussianity," Bank of England working papers 957, Bank of England.
    15. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2019. "Supply flexibility in the shale patch: Facts, no fiction," Working Papers No 08/2019, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    16. Li, Ye & Chen, Yiyan & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and crude oil price predictability: Novel decomposition ensemble approach based ternary interval number series," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    17. Carrillo-Maldonado, Paul & Díaz-Cassou, Javier, 2023. "An anatomy of external shocks in the Andean region," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    18. Benk, Szilard & Gillman, Max, 2023. "Identifying money and inflation expectation shocks to real oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    19. Nonejad, Nima, 2020. "An observation regarding Hamilton’s recent criticisms of Kilian’s global real economic activity index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    20. Dalheimer, Bernhard & Herwartz, Helmut & Lange, Alexander, 2021. "The threat of oil market turmoils to food price stability in Sub-Saharan Africa," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    21. Lutz Kilian, 2025. "Impulse Response Diagnostics for Priors on Parameters in Structural Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2507, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    22. Zeina Alsalman, 2021. "Does the source of oil supply shock matter in explaining the behavior of U.S. consumer spending and sentiment?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1491-1518, September.

  21. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2019. "The Uniform Validity of Impulse Response Inference in Autoregressions," Working Papers 1908, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Cited by:

    1. Li, Dake & Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel & Wolf, Christian K., 2024. "Local projections vs. VARs: Lessons from thousands of DGPs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(2).
    2. Atsushi Inoue & `Oscar Jord`a & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2023. "Inference for Local Projections," Papers 2306.03073, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    3. Andre Harrison & Annika Segelhorst, 2024. "Do consumer price indices in oil-producing economies respond differently to oil market shocks? Evidence from Canada," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(5), pages 2039-2076, November.
    4. Dean Fantazzini & Julia Pushchelenko & Alexey Mironenkov & Alexey Kurbatskii, 2021. "Forecasting Internal Migration in Russia Using Google Trends: Evidence from Moscow and Saint Petersburg," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-30, October.
    5. Alain Hecq & Luca Margaritella & Stephan Smeekes, 2023. "Inference in Non-stationary High-Dimensional VARs," Papers 2302.01434, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    6. Ke-Li Xu, 2022. "On Local Projection Based Inference," CAEPR Working Papers 2022-002 Classification-, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    7. Yuanyuan Li & Dietmar Bauer, 2020. "Modeling I(2) Processes Using Vector Autoregressions Where the Lag Length Increases with the Sample Size," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-28, September.
    8. José Luis Montiel Olea & Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller, 2021. "Local Projection Inference Is Simpler and More Robust Than You Think," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(4), pages 1789-1823, July.
    9. Jean-Marie Dufour & Endong Wang, 2024. "Simple robust two-stage estimation and inference for generalized impulse responses and multi-horizon causality," Papers 2409.10820, arXiv.org.
    10. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2020. "The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models," Working Papers 2006, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    11. Olatunji Abdul Shobande & Joseph Onuche Enemona, 2021. "A Multivariate VAR Model for Evaluating Sustainable Finance and Natural Resource Curse in West Africa: Evidence from Nigeria and Ghana," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-15, March.
    12. Dake Li & Mikkel Plagborg-M{o}ller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections vs. VARs: Lessons From Thousands of DGPs," Papers 2104.00655, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    13. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2024. "Local Projections," NBER Working Papers 32822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Ke-Li Xu, 2023. "Local Projection Based Inference under General Conditions," CAEPR Working Papers 2023-001 Classification-C, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.

  22. Lutz Kilian & Zhou Xiaoqing, 2019. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates," CESifo Working Paper Series 7484, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Rodrigo da Silva Souza & Leonardo Bornacki Mattos, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks on an emerging market economy," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 803-824, April.
    2. Scott M. R. Mahadeo & Reinhold Heinlein & Gabriella Deborah Legrenzi, 2018. "Energy Contagion Analysis: A New Perspective with Application to a Small Petroleum Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 7279, CESifo.
    3. Vincenzo Candila & Denis Maximov & Alexey Mikhaylov & Nikita Moiseev & Tomonobu Senjyu & Nicole Tryndina, 2021. "On the Relationship between Oil and Exchange Rates of Oil-Exporting and Oil-Importing Countries: From the Great Recession Period to the COVID-19 Era," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-18, December.
    4. Lutz Kilian, 2019. "Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling," CESifo Working Paper Series 7902, CESifo.
    5. Khalil, Makram, 2020. "Global oil prices and the macroeconomy: The role of tradeable manufacturing versus nontradeable services," Discussion Papers 60/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Breen, John David & Hu, Liang, 2021. "The predictive content of oil price and volatility: New evidence on exchange rate forecasting," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. Tersoo Shimonkabir Shitile & Nuruddeen Usman, 2020. "Disaggregated Inflation and Asymmetric Oil Price Pass-Through in Nigeria," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 255-264.
    8. Khalil, Makram & Strobel, Felix, 2021. "US trade policy and the US dollar," Discussion Papers 49/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. An, Lian & Wynne, Mark A. & Zhang, Ren, 2021. "Shock-dependent exchange rate pass-through: Evidence based on a narrative sign approach for Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    10. Branko Bošković & Andrew Leach, 2020. "Leave it in the ground? Oil sands development under carbon pricing," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(2), pages 526-562, May.
    11. Souza, Rodrigo da Silva & Fry-McKibbin, Renée, 2021. "Global liquidity and commodity market interactions: Macroeconomic effects on a commodity exporting emerging market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 781-800.
    12. Kilian, Lutz, 2023. "How to Construct Monthly VAR Proxies Based on Daily Futures Market Surprises," CEPR Discussion Papers 18348, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2019. "Does Drawing Down the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Help Stabilize Oil Prices?," Working Papers 1916, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    14. Marcus Vinicius Santos & Fernando Morgado-Dias & Thiago C. Silva, 2023. "Oil Sector and Sentiment Analysis—A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-29, June.
    15. Salah A. Alawadhi & Adedayo E. Longe, 2024. "Oil Price Fluctuation and their Impact on the Macroeconomic Variables: The Case of Kuwait," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(3), pages 375-386, May.
    16. Ron Alquist & Reinhard Ellwanger & Jianjian Jin, 2020. "The effect of oil price shocks on asset markets: Evidence from oil inventory news," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1212-1230, August.
    17. Daniele Valenti & Andrea Bastianin & Matteo Manera, 2022. "A weekly structural VAR model of the US crude oil market," Working Papers 2022.11, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    18. Ahmadi, Maryam & Manera, Matteo, 2021. "Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth in Oil-Exporting Countries," FEEM Working Papers 311052, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    19. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2020. "Joint Bayesian inference about impulse responses in VAR models," CFS Working Paper Series 650, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    20. Sophio Togonidze & Evžen Kočenda, 2022. "Macroeconomic Responses of Emerging Market Economies to Oil Price Shocks: An Analysis by Region and Resource Profile," FFA Working Papers 4.005, Prague University of Economics and Business, revised 25 Apr 2022.
    21. Lian An & Mark A. Wynne & Ren Zhang, 2020. "Shock-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence Based on a Narrative Sign Approach," Globalization Institute Working Papers 379, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    22. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L. & Arora, Vipin, 2020. "The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    23. Sheng Fang & Paul Egan, 2021. "Tail dependence between oil prices and China's A‐shares: Evidence from firm‐level data," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1469-1487, January.
    24. Yang Liu & Tongshuai Qiao & Liyan Han, 2022. "Does clean energy matter? Revisiting the spillovers between energy and foreign exchange markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(11), pages 2068-2083, November.
    25. Jin Shang & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2023. "Differential Tail Dependence between Crude Oil and Forex Markets in Oil-Importing and Oil-Exporting Countries during Recent Crisis Periods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-24, October.
    26. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein & Al-Shboul, Mohammad, 2022. "Oil structural shocks, bank-level characteristics, and systemic risk: Evidence from dual banking systems," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(4).
    27. Borozan, Djula & Lolic Cipcic, Marina, 2022. "Asymmetric and nonlinear oil price pass-through to economic growth in Croatia: Do oil-related policy shocks matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    28. Sviridov, Oleg & Skorobogatov, Alexander, 2025. "A causal link analysis from oil price to the Russian stock market," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 77, pages 5-24.
    29. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen, 2021. "Oil price and US dollar exchange rate: Change detection of bi-directional causal impact," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    30. Forhad, Md. Abdur Rahman & Alam, Md. Rafayet, 2022. "Impact of oil demand and supply shocks on the exchange rates of selected Southeast Asian countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    31. Daniele Valenti, 2022. "Modelling the Global Price of Oil:Is there any Role for the Oil Futures-spot Spread?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 43(2), pages 41-66, March.
    32. Joscha Beckmann & Mariarosaria Comunale, 2020. "Exchange rate fluctuations and the financial channel in emerging economies," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 83, Bank of Lithuania.
    33. Venditti, Fabrizio & Veronese, Giovanni, 2020. "Global financial markets and oil price shocks in real time," Working Paper Series 2472, European Central Bank.
    34. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein, 2021. "The effect of structural oil shocks on bank systemic risk in the GCC countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    35. Sakib Bin Amin & Noshin Nawal Audry & Ahmed Farah Ulfat, 2021. "The Nexus Between Oil Price Shock and the Exchange Rate in Bangladesh," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 427-435.
    36. Changyu Liu & Muhammad Abubakr Naeem & Mobeen Ur Rehman & Saqib Farid & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2020. "Oil as Hedge, Safe-Haven, and Diversifier for Conventional Currencies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-19, August.
    37. Priya, Pragati & Pal, Debdatta, 2024. "Does crude oil price volatility respond asymmetrically to financial shocks?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    38. Doga Bilgin & Reinhard Ellwanger, 2019. "The Simple Economics of Global Fuel Consumption," Staff Working Papers 19-35, Bank of Canada.
    39. Yépez, Carlos & Dzikpe, Francis, 2022. "Accounting for real exchange rates in emerging economies: The role of commodity prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 476-492.
    40. Nicholas Apergis & Tasawar Hayat & Tareq Saeed, 2021. "Cyclicality of commodity markets with respect to the U.S. economic policy uncertainty based on granger causality in quantiles," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 50(1), February.

  23. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqin Zhou, 2019. "Does Drawing Down the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Help Stabilize Oil Prices?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7753, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Raffaella Giacomini & Toru Kitagawa & Matthew Read, 2023. "Identification and Inference under Narrative Restrictions," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2023-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2021. "The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23," CESifo Working Paper Series 9455, CESifo.
    3. Razek, Noha & Galvani, Valentina & Rajan, Surya & McQuinn, Brian, 2023. "Can U.S. strategic petroleum reserves calm a tight market exacerbated by the Russia–Ukraine conflict?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    4. Lutz Kilian, 2019. "Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling," CESifo Working Paper Series 7902, CESifo.
    5. Kilian, Lutz & Inoue, Atsushi, 2020. "The Role of the Prior in Estimating VAR Models with Sign Restrictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15545, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James, 2020. "Drawing Conclusions from Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified on the Basis of Sign Restrictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 14271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Yujia, Li & Zixiang, Zhu & Ming, Che, 2024. "Exploring the relationship between China's economic policy uncertainty and business cycles: Exogenous impulse or endogenous responses?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    8. Jochen Güntner & Magnus Reif & Maik Wolters, 2024. "Sudden stop: Supply and demand shocks in the German natural gas market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1282-1300, November.
    9. Chang, Lei & Mohsin, Muhammad & Gao, Zhennan & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2023. "Asymmetric impact of oil price on current account balance: Evidence from oil importing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    10. Ma, Binfeng & Wang, Xiaofang, 2024. "Unveiling asymmetric dynamics: Exploring the impact of oil price on economic growth and current account deficit: Evidence from G-7 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    11. Kilian, Lutz, 2020. "Understanding the Estimation of Oil Demand and Oil Supply Elasticities," CEPR Discussion Papers 15244, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Shiu‐Sheng Chen, 2023. "A direct approach to Kilian–Lewis style counterfactual analysis in vector autoregression models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 1068-1076, November.
    13. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2020. "Joint Bayesian inference about impulse responses in VAR models," CFS Working Paper Series 650, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    14. Kilian, Lutz, 2024. "How to construct monthly VAR proxies based on daily surprises in futures markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    15. Jamie L. Cross & Bao H. Nguyen & Trung Duc Tran, 2021. "The Role of Precautionary and Speculative Demand in the Global Market for Crude Oil," Working Papers No 06/2021, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    16. Azhgaliyeva, Dina & Kapsalyamova, Zhanna & Mishra, Ranjeeta, 2022. "Oil price shocks and green bonds: An empirical evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    17. Sophio Togonidze & Evzen Kocenda, 2022. "Macroeconomic Implications of Oil-Price Shocks to Emerging Economies: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach," Working Papers IES 2022/21, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2022.
    18. Grzegorz Przekota & Anna Szczepańska-Przekota, 2022. "Pro-Inflationary Impact of the Oil Market—A Study for Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-19, April.

  24. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2018. "The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada," Staff Working Papers 18-56, Bank of Canada.

    Cited by:

    1. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "How do Housing Returns in Emerging Countries Respond to Oil Shocks? A MIDAS Touch," Working Papers 201946, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Sugaipov, Deni, 2022. "Estimating the impact of terms of trade news shocks on the Russian economy," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 66, pages 39-67.
    3. Katya Kartashova & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2022. "How Do Mortgage Rate Resets Affect Consumer Spending and Debt Repayment? Evidence from Canadian Consumers," Working Papers 2206, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    4. Marco Flaccadoro, 2022. "Exchange rate pass-through in small, open, commodity-exporting economies: lessons from Canada," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1368, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Miguel Ángel Almazán‐Gómez & Carlos Llano & Julián Pérez & Daniel Rauhut, 2024. "Socioeconomic impacts of Russian invasion of Ukraine: A multiregional assessment for Europe," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 333-354, March.
    6. Andre Harrison & Annika Segelhorst, 2024. "Do consumer price indices in oil-producing economies respond differently to oil market shocks? Evidence from Canada," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(5), pages 2039-2076, November.
    7. Canepa, Alessandra & Zanetti Chini, Emilio & Alqaralleh, Huthaifa, 2023. "Modelling and Forecasting Energy Market Cycles: A Generalized Smooth Transition Approach," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202318, University of Turin.
    8. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2023. "Heterogeneity in the pass-through from oil to gasoline prices: A new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand," CFS Working Paper Series 685, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    9. Hao, Xianfeng & Zhao, Yuyang & Wang, Yudong, 2020. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil using robust regression models with regularization constraints," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    10. Wang, Yudong & Hao, Xianfeng, 2022. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil: A robust weighted least squares approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    11. Muhammad Adil Rauf & Olaf Weber, 2022. "Housing Sustainability: The Effects of Speculation and Property Taxes on House Prices within and beyond the Jurisdiction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-19, June.
    12. Nyakundi M. Michieka & Richard S. Gearhart & Noha A. Razek, 2024. "Oil Price Dynamics and Housing Demand in Oil Producing Counties in the U.S," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 48(2), pages 483-512, June.
    13. Bouteska, Ahmed & Hajek, Petr & Fisher, Ben & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul, 2023. "Nonlinearity in forecasting energy commodity prices: Evidence from a focused time-delayed neural network," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    14. Moghaddam, Mohsen Bakhshi, 2023. "The relationship between oil price changes and economic growth in Canadian provinces: Evidence from a quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    15. Al Refai, Hisham & Eissa, Mohamad Abdelaziz & Zeitun, Rami, 2021. "The dynamics of the relationship between real estate and stock markets in an energy-based economy: The case of Qatar," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    16. Herrera, Ana María & Karaki, Mohamad B. & Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar, 2019. "Oil price shocks and U.S. economic activity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 89-99.

  25. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2018. "Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Information: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand S," CEPR Discussion Papers 13068, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2019. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates," Working Papers 1914, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Peng Li & Yaofu Ouyang, 2023. "Oil price shocks and China’s consumer and entrepreneur sentiment: a Bayesian structural VAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2241-2271, November.
    3. Foroni, Claudia & Stracca, Livio, 2019. "Much ado about nothing? The shale oil revolution and the global supply curve," Working Paper Series 2309, European Central Bank.
    4. Ioannis Arampatzidis & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2022. "On the identification of the oil-stock market relationship," Working Paper series 22-15, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    5. Hau, Liya & Zhu, Huiming & Huang, Rui & Ma, Xiang, 2020. "Heterogeneous dependence between crude oil price volatility and China’s agriculture commodity futures: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    6. Bilgin, Doga & Ellwanger, Reinhard, 2024. "A simple model of global fuel consumption," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).

  26. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2018. "Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Identification: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks: Comment," CESifo Working Paper Series 7166, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Peng Li & Yaofu Ouyang, 2023. "Oil price shocks and China’s consumer and entrepreneur sentiment: a Bayesian structural VAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2241-2271, November.
    2. Foroni, Claudia & Stracca, Livio, 2019. "Much ado about nothing? The shale oil revolution and the global supply curve," Working Paper Series 2309, European Central Bank.
    3. Pooyan Amir‐Ahmadi & Thorsten Drautzburg, 2021. "Identification and inference with ranking restrictions," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(1), pages 1-39, January.
    4. Ioannis Arampatzidis & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2022. "On the identification of the oil-stock market relationship," Working Paper series 22-15, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    5. Hau, Liya & Zhu, Huiming & Huang, Rui & Ma, Xiang, 2020. "Heterogeneous dependence between crude oil price volatility and China’s agriculture commodity futures: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    6. Bilgin, Doga & Ellwanger, Reinhard, 2024. "A simple model of global fuel consumption," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).

  27. Lutz Kilian, 2017. "How the Tight Oil Boom Has Changed Oil and Gasoline Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 6380, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Richard G. Newell & Brian C. Prest, 2019. "The Unconventional Oil Supply Boom: Aggregate Price Response from Microdata," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(3), pages 1-30, May.
    2. Foroni, Claudia & Stracca, Livio, 2019. "Much ado about nothing? The shale oil revolution and the global supply curve," Working Paper Series 2309, European Central Bank.
    3. Hwang, Inwook & Kim, Jaebeom, 2021. "Oil price shocks and the US stock market: A nonlinear approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 23-36.
    4. Nida Çakır Melek & Michael D. Plante & Mine K. Yücel, 2017. "The U.S. Shale Oil Boom, the Oil Export Ban, and the Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers 1708, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. Claudia Foroni & Livio Stracca, 2023. "The shale oil revolution and the global oil supply curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 370-387, April.
    6. Manuel Frondel and Marco Horvath, 2019. "The U.S. Fracking Boom: Impact on Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    7. Nida Çakır Melek & Michael D. Plante & Mine K. Yücel, 2017. "The U.S. Shale Oil Boom, the Oil Export Ban, and the Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis Nida," Research Working Paper RWP 17-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    8. Mollick, André V. & Killins, Robert N. & Egly, Peter V. & Johnk, David W., 2024. "Bank equity returns and oil prices: The story from U.S. regional banks during the “shale oil” revolution," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PA).
    9. Polanco Martínez, Josué M. & Abadie, Luis M. & Fernández-Macho, J., 2018. "A multi-resolution and multivariate analysis of the dynamic relationships between crude oil and petroleum-product prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1550-1560.
    10. Bao H. NGUYEN & Tatsuyoshi OKIMOTO, 2017. "Asymmetric Reactions of the U.S. Natural Gas Market and Economic Activity," Discussion papers 17102, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    11. Donia Aloui & Stéphane Goutte & Khaled Guesmi & Rafla Hchaichi, 2020. "COVID 19's impact on crude oil and natural gas S&P GS Indexes," Working Papers halshs-02613280, HAL.
    12. Sun, Yuying & Zhang, Xun & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Shouyang, 2019. "Asymmetric pass-through of oil prices to gasoline prices with interval time series modelling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 165-173.
    13. Enders, Almira & Enders, Zeno, 2017. "Second-round effects after oil-price shocks: Evidence for the euro area and Germany," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 208-213.
    14. Jisung Jo & Umji Kim & Eonkyung Lee & Juhyang Lee & Sewon Kim, 2023. "A Supply Chain-Oriented Model to Predict Crude Oil Import Prices in South Korea Based on the Hybrid Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-18, December.
    15. Huang, Wanling & Mollick, Andre Varella, 2020. "Tight oil, real WTI prices and U.S. stock returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

  28. Christiane Baumeister & Reinhard Ellwanger & Lutz Kilian, 2017. "Did the Renewable Fuel Standard Shift Market Expectations of the Price of Ethanol?," Staff Working Papers 17-35, Bank of Canada.

    Cited by:

    1. Erten Bilge & Tuzcuoglu Kerem, 2018. "Output Effects of Global Food Commodity Shocks," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, June.
    2. Pozo, Veronica F. & Bejan, Vladimir & Bachmeier, Lance, 2017. "Are Price Transmissions between U.S. Energy and Corn Markets Asymmetric?," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258232, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Christiane Baumeister, 2021. "Measuring Market Expectations," Working Papers 202163, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Fretheim, Torun, 2019. "An empirical analysis of the correlation between large daily changes in grain and oil futures prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 66-75.
    5. Lawell, Cynthia Lin & Yi, Fujin & Thome, Karen E, 2017. "The Effects of Subsidies and Mandates: A Dynamic Model of the Ethanol Industry," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt73n0t4pv, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    6. Maryam Movahedifar & Hossein Hassani & Masoud Yarmohammadi & Mahdi Kalantari & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "A robust approach for outlier imputation: Singular Spectrum Decomposition," Working Papers 202164, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Curtis McKnight & Feng Qiu & Marty Luckert & Grant Hauer, 2021. "Prices for a second‐generation biofuel industry in Canada: Market linkages between Canadian wheat and US energy and agricultural commodities," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(3), pages 337-351, September.
    8. Efthymios G. Pavlidis & Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2018. "Using Market Expectations to Test for Speculative Bubbles in the Crude Oil Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(5), pages 833-856, August.

  29. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2017. "Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?," Staff Working Papers 17-50, Bank of Canada.

    Cited by:

    1. Känzig, Diego Raoul, 2020. "The macroeconomic effects of oil supply news: Evidence from OPEC announcements," MPRA Paper 106249, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Sardar, Naafey & Qureshi, Irfan, 2024. "Revisiting the relationship between oil supply news shocks and U.S. economic activity: Role of the zero lower bound," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    3. Jo, Soojin & Karnizova, Lilia & Reza, Abeer, 2019. "Industry effects of oil price shocks: A re-examination," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 179-190.
    4. Agboola, Emmanuel & Chowdhury, Rosen & Yang, Bo, 2024. "Oil price fluctuations and their impact on oil-exporting emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    5. Lutz Kilian, 2017. "How the Tight Oil Boom Has Changed Oil and Gasoline Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 6380, CESifo.
    6. Herrera, Ana María & Karaki, Mohamad B. & Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar, 2019. "Oil price shocks and U.S. economic activity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 89-99.

  30. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2017. "Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is this Time Different?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6322, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Martin Feldkircher & Pierre L. Siklos, 2018. "Global inflation dynamics and inflation expectations," CAMA Working Papers 2018-60, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Brice V. Dupoyet & Corey A. Shank, 2018. "Oil prices implied volatility or direction: Which matters more to financial markets?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 32(3), pages 275-295, August.
    3. Peng Li & Yaofu Ouyang, 2023. "Oil price shocks and China’s consumer and entrepreneur sentiment: a Bayesian structural VAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2241-2271, November.
    4. Ahmadi, Maryam & Manera, Matteo & Sadeghzadeh, Mehdi, 2019. "The investment-uncertainty relationship in the oil and gas industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Martin Geiger & Johann Scharler, 2018. "How do consumers interpret the macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations? Evidence from U.S. survey data," Working Papers 2018-13, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    6. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Julia Zhulanova, 2019. "The shale oil boom and the U.S. economy: Spillovers and time-varying effects," Working Paper 2019/14, Norges Bank.
    7. Erten Bilge & Tuzcuoglu Kerem, 2018. "Output Effects of Global Food Commodity Shocks," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, June.
    8. Jin Boon Wong, 2021. "Stock market reactions to different types of oil shocks: Evidence from China," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 179-193, February.
    9. Khalil, Makram, 2020. "Global oil prices and the macroeconomy: The role of tradeable manufacturing versus nontradeable services," Discussion Papers 60/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Cheng, Zishu & Li, Mingchen & Sun, Yuying & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Shouyang, 2024. "Climate change and crude oil prices: An interval forecast model with interval-valued textual data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    11. Lutz Kilian, 2016. "The Impact of the Fracking Boom on Arab Oil Producers," CESifo Working Paper Series 5751, CESifo.
    12. Christiane Baumeister & Danilo Leiva-León & Eric Sims, 2024. "Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 483-504, March.
    13. Mohamad B. Karaki, 2018. "Asymmetries In The Responses Of Regional Job Flows To Oil Price Shocks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(3), pages 1827-1845, July.
    14. Demirer, Rıza & Ferrer, Román & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2020. "Oil price shocks, global financial markets and their connectedness," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    15. Anis Ali, 2021. "Do Oil Prices Govern GDP and Public Spending Avenues in Saudi Arabia? Sensitivity and Trend Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 104-109.
    16. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2014. "The role of oil price shocks in causing U.S. recessions," CFS Working Paper Series 460, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    17. Basel Awartani & Aktham Maghyereh & Julie Ayton, 2019. "Oil Price Changes And Industrial Output In The Mena Region: Nonlinearities And Asymmetries," Working Papers 1342, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Sep 2019.
    18. Zhang, Chuanguo & Shang, Hongli, 2023. "Asymmetry effect of oil price shocks and the lagging effect of oil price jumps: Evidence from China's automobile markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    19. Baumeister, Christiane & Ellwanger, Reinhard & Kilian, Lutz, 2016. "Did the renewable fuel standard shift market expectations of the price of ethanol?," CFS Working Paper Series 563, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    20. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ahmed, Khalid & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Jiao, Zhilun, 2019. "Resource curse hypothesis and role of oil prices in USA," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    21. Nenubari John Ikue & Lamin Mohammed Magaji & Samuel Zeb-Omoni & Mohammed, Aminu Usman & Joseph Osaro Denwi, 2021. "Trade Balance and Oil Shocks in African Oil Exporting Countries: A Panel Threshold Regression," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 10(4), pages 150-166, October.
    22. Claudia Foroni & Pierre Guérin & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2017. "Explaining the Time-varying Effects Of Oil Market Shocks On U.S. Stock Returns," Working Papers 597, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    23. Paolo Gelain & Marco Lorusso, 2022. "Oil Price Fluctuations, US Banks, and Macroprudential Policy," Working Papers 22-33R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 23 Oct 2024.
    24. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin & Özkan, Oktay, 2023. "Geopolitical oil price uncertainty transmission into core inflation: Evidence from two of the biggest global players," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    25. Amina Ika Micah, 2022. "Three essays on access to credit and financial shock in Nigeria," Economics PhD Theses 0422, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    26. Nida Cakir Melek & Michael Plante & Mine Yucel, 2021. "Resource Booms and the Macroeconomy: The Case of U.S. Shale Oil," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 42, pages 307-332, October.
    27. Dipesh Karki & Hari Gopal Risal, 2019. "Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price on Inflation: Evidence from Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 31(1), pages 21-46, April.
    28. Sardar, Naafey & Qureshi, Irfan, 2024. "Revisiting the relationship between oil supply news shocks and U.S. economic activity: Role of the zero lower bound," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    29. Ron Alquist & Reinhard Ellwanger & Jianjian Jin, 2020. "The effect of oil price shocks on asset markets: Evidence from oil inventory news," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1212-1230, August.
    30. Sofronis Clerides & Styliani-Iris Krokida & Neophytos Lambertides & Dimitris Tsouknidis, 2020. "What matters for consumer sentiment? World oil price or retail gasoline price?," Working Paper series 20-22, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    31. Kamel Almutairi & Greg Thoma & Alvaro Durand-Morat, 2018. "Ex-Ante Analysis of Economic, Social and Environmental Impacts of Large-Scale Renewable and Nuclear Energy Targets for Global Electricity Generation by 2030," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-25, August.
    32. James W. Murray, 2016. "Limitations of Oil Production to the IPCC Scenarios: The New Realities of US and Global Oil Production," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 1-13, December.
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    34. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2018. "Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 54-78.
    35. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2017. "Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?," Staff Working Papers 17-50, Bank of Canada.
    36. Mototsugu Shintani & Naoto Soma, 2020. "The Effects of QQE on Long-run Inflation Expectations in Japan," CARF F-Series CARF-F-494, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    37. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2021. "Asymmetric responses of consumer spending to energy prices: A threshold VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    38. Zeina Alsalman, 2023. "Oil price shocks and US unemployment: evidence from disentangling the duration of unemployment spells in the labor market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 479-511, July.
    39. Jo, Soojin & Karnizova, Lilia & Reza, Abeer, 2019. "Industry effects of oil price shocks: A re-examination," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 179-190.
    40. Yao Axel Ehouman, 2020. "Volatility transmission between oil prices and banks’ stock prices as a new source of instability: Lessons from the United States experience," Post-Print hal-02960571, HAL.
    41. Jihad El Hokayem & Ibrahim Jamali & Ale Hejase, 2024. "A forecasting model for oil prices using a large set of economic indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1615-1624, August.
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    48. Diaz, Elena Maria & Cunado, Juncal & de Gracia, Fernando Perez, 2023. "Commodity price shocks, supply chain disruptions and U.S. inflation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
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    55. Tarek Bouazizi & Zouhaier Hadhek & Fatma Mrad & Mosbah Lafi, 2021. "Changes in Demand for Crude Oil and its Correlation with Crude Oil and Stock Market Returns Volatilities: Evidence from Three Asian Oil Importing Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 27-43.
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    58. Lewis Alexander & Janice Eberly, 2018. "Investment Hollowing Out," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(1), pages 5-30, March.
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    60. Koczar, Monika W. & Jareño, Francisco & Escribano, Ana, 2024. "Dynamic linkages and contagion effects: Analyzing the linkages between crude oil prices, US market sector indices and energy markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    61. Pan, Zhiyuan & Wang, Qing & Wang, Yudong & Yang, Li, 2018. "Forecasting U.S. real GDP using oil prices: A time-varying parameter MIDAS model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 177-187.
    62. Akdoğan, Kurmaş, 2020. "Fundamentals versus speculation in oil market: The role of asymmetries in price adjustment?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
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    137. Zhang, Yongmin & Ding, Shusheng, 2021. "Liquidity effects on price and return co-movements in commodity futures markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    138. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein, 2021. "The effect of structural oil shocks on bank systemic risk in the GCC countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    139. Dalheimer, Bernhard & Herwartz, Helmut & Lange, Alexander, 2021. "The threat of oil market turmoils to food price stability in Sub-Saharan Africa," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    140. Ahmed, Rashad, 2020. "Global Flight-to-Safety Shocks," MPRA Paper 103501, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    141. Cross, Jamie L. & Hou, Chenghan & Nguyen, Bao H., 2021. "On the China factor in the world oil market: A regime switching approach11We thank Hilde Bjørnland, Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, Ippei Fujiwara, Knut Aastveit, Leif Anders Thorsrud, Francesco Ravazzolo, Renee ," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    142. Clerides, Sofronis & Krokida, Styliani-Iris & Lambertides, Neophytos & Tsouknidis, Dimitris, 2022. "What matters for consumer sentiment in the euro area? World crude oil price or retail gasoline price?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    143. Memon, Bilal Ahmed & Yao, Hongxing & Naveed, Hafiz Muhammad, 2022. "Examining the efficiency and herding behavior of commodity markets using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. Empirical evidence from energy, agriculture, and metal markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    144. Zeina Alsalman, 2021. "Does the source of oil supply shock matter in explaining the behavior of U.S. consumer spending and sentiment?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1491-1518, September.
    145. Guo, Jin & Wen, Xiaoqian, 2024. "Option listing and underlying commodity futures volatility in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    146. Tvedt, Jostein & Hovi, Inger Beate, 2024. "Container shipping: A market equilibrium perspective on freight rates formation post-Covid-19," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    147. Oladosu, Gbadebo & Leiby, Paul & Uria-Martinez, Rocio & Bowman, David, 2022. "Sensitivity of the U.S. economy to oil prices controlling for domestic production and imports," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    148. Nonejad, Nima, 2020. "Crude oil price volatility and equity return predictability: A comparative out-of-sample study," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    149. Kim, Gil & Vera, David, 2019. "Recent drivers of the real oil price: Revisiting and extending Kilian's (2009) findings," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 201-210.

  32. Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Impulse Response Matching Estimators for DSGE Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 5730, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Povilas Lastauskas & Julius Stakėnas, 2022. "Dancing Alone or Together: The Dynamic Effects of Independent and Common Monetary Policies," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, volume 43, pages 217-241, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    2. Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael R. & Xu, Yongdeng, 2017. "Comparing different data descriptors in Indirect Inference tests on DSGE models," CEPR Discussion Papers 11816, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Joint Confidence Sets for Structural Impulse Responses," CESifo Working Paper Series 5746, CESifo.
    4. Giovanni Pellegrino & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Caggiano, 2021. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy during the Great Recession," Economics Working Papers 2021-05, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    5. Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2018. "Uncertainty-dependent Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: A New Keynesian Interpretation," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2018n02, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    6. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco, 2020. "Estimating nonlinear dynamic equilibrium models by matching impulse responses," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    7. Lynda Khalaf & Beatriz Peraza López, 2020. "Simultaneous Indirect Inference, Impulse Responses and ARMA Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-26, April.
    8. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Xu, Yongdeng, 2022. "Targeting moments for calibration compared with indirect inference," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2022/12, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    9. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael & Xu, Yongdeng, 2018. "Testing DSGE Models by indirect inference: a survey of recent findings," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/14, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    10. Cavicchioli, Maddalena, 2024. "A matrix unified framework for deriving various impulse responses in Markov switching VAR: Evidence from oil and gas markets," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    11. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan Rubio-Ramírez & Frank Schorfheide, 2015. "Solution and Estimation Methods for DSGE Models," PIER Working Paper Archive 15-042, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 09 Dec 2015.
    12. Martinoli, Mario & Moneta, Alessio & Pallante, Gianluca, 2024. "Calibration and validation of macroeconomic simulation models by statistical causal search," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    13. Giovanni Pellegrino & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Caggiano, 2020. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy during Extreme Events," Economics Working Papers 2020-11, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    14. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael & Xu, Yongdeng, 2018. "The small sample properties of Indirect Inference in testing and estimating DSGE models," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/7, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    15. Ryan Chahrour & Sanjay K. Chugh & Tristan Potter, 2023. "Anticipated productivity and the labor market," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(3), pages 897-934, July.
    16. Lucy Minford & David Meenagh, 2020. "Supply-Side Policy and Economic Growth: A Case Study of the UK," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 159-193, February.
    17. Chatterjee, Pratiti, 2024. "Uncertainty shocks, financial frictions, and business cycle asymmetries across countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    18. Angelini, Giovanni & Sorge, Marco M., 2021. "Under the same (Chole)sky: DNK models, timing restrictions and recursive identification of monetary policy shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    19. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2019. "The Uniform Validity of Impulse Response Inference in Autoregressions," Working Papers 1908, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    20. Inês da Cunha Cabral & João Nicolau, 2022. "Inflation in the G7 and the expected time to reach the reference rate: A nonparametric approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1608-1620, April.
    21. Minford, Patrick & Xu, Yongdeng, 2024. "Indirect Inference- a methodological essay on its role and applications," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2024/1, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    22. Massimo Ferrari Minesso & Maria Sole Pagliari, 2022. "DSGE Nash: solving Nash Games in Macro Models With an application to optimal monetary policy under monopolistic commodity pricing," Working papers 884, Banque de France.
    23. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Xu, Yongdeng, 2023. "Indirect Inference and Small Sample Bias - Some Recent Results," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2023/15, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    24. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2024. "Local Projections," NBER Working Papers 32822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2022. "DSGE Nash: solving Nash games in macro models," Working Paper Series 2678, European Central Bank.
    26. Daniil Lomonosov, 2023. "Shocks of Business Activity and Specific Shocks to Oil Market in DSGE Model of Russian Economy and Their Influence Under Different Monetary Policy Regimes," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 82(4), pages 44-79, December.
    27. Lin, Boqiang & Xu, Bin, 2018. "Growth of industrial CO2 emissions in Shanghai city: Evidence from a dynamic vector autoregression analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 167-177.
    28. Zviadadze, Irina, 2018. "Term Structure of Risk in Expected Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 13414, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    29. Giulia Piccillo & Poramapa Poonpakdee, 2023. "Ambiguous Business Cycles, Recessions and Uncertainty: A Quantitative Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 10646, CESifo.
    30. Giovanni Angelini & Giuseppe Cavaliere & Luca Fanelli, 2022. "Bootstrap inference and diagnostics in state space models: With applications to dynamic macro models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 3-22, January.

  33. Lutz Kilian, 2016. "The Impact of the Shale Oil Revolution on U.S. Oil and Gasoline Prices," CESifo Working Paper Series 5723, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Qiao, Sen & Guo, Zi Xin & Tao, Zhang & Ren, Zheng Yu, 2023. "Analyzing the network structure of risk transmission among renewable, non-renewable energy and carbon markets," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 206-217.
    2. Gevorkyan, Arkady & Semmler, Willi, 2016. "Oil price, overleveraging and shakeout in the shale energy sector — Game changers in the oil industry," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 244-259.
    3. Punam Chuhan-Pole & Francisco H.G. Ferreira & Cesar Calderon & Luc Christiaensen & David Evans & Gerard Kambou & Sebastien Boreux & Vijdan Korman & Megumi Kubota & Mapi Buitano, "undated". "Africa's Pulse, April 2015," World Bank Publications - Reports 21736, The World Bank Group.
    4. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Zinnia Mukherjee & Rangan Gupta & Mehmet Balcilar, 2018. "A Wavelet Analysis of the Relationship between Oil and Natural Gas Prices," Working Papers 201831, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Richard G. Newell & Brian C. Prest, 2019. "The Unconventional Oil Supply Boom: Aggregate Price Response from Microdata," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(3), pages 1-30, May.
    6. Benkraiem, Ramzi & Lahiani, Amine & Miloudi, Anthony & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "New insights into the US stock market reactions to energy price shocks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 169-187.
    7. Scott M. R. Mahadeo & Reinhold Heinlein & Gabriella Deborah Legrenzi, 2018. "Energy Contagion Analysis: A New Perspective with Application to a Small Petroleum Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 7279, CESifo.
    8. Razek, Noha & Galvani, Valentina & Rajan, Surya & McQuinn, Brian, 2023. "Can U.S. strategic petroleum reserves calm a tight market exacerbated by the Russia–Ukraine conflict?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    9. Jochen Güntner & Johannes Henler, 2021. "Exogenous Oil supply Shocks in OPEC and Non-OPEC Countries," The Energy Journal, , vol. 42(6), pages 229-246, November.
    10. Schweikert Karsten, 2020. "Testing for cointegration with threshold adjustment in the presence of structural breaks," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(1), pages 1-28, February.
    11. Hain, Martin & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese & Unger, Nils, 2018. "Risk factors and their associated risk premia: An empirical analysis of the crude oil market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 44-63.
    12. Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Ana-Maria Fuertes & Joelle Miffre, 2023. "The Negative Pricing of the May 2020 WTI Contract," Post-Print hal-03933797, HAL.
    13. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2017. "The nexus between the oil price and its volatility in a stochastic volatility in mean model with time-varying parameters," Working Papers 15-33, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    14. Storrøsten, Halvor Briseid, 2024. "U.S. light tight oil supply flexibility - A multivariate dynamic model for production and rig activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    15. Lim, Chansu & Lee, Jongsu, 2020. "An analysis of the efficiency of the oil refining industry in the OECD countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    16. Dawud Ansari & Mariza Montes de Oca Leon & Helen Schlüter, 2021. "What Drives Saudi Airstrikes in Yemen? An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamics of Coalition Airstrikes, Houthi Attacks, and the Oil Market," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1959, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    17. Lutz Kilian, 2016. "The Impact of the Fracking Boom on Arab Oil Producers," CESifo Working Paper Series 5751, CESifo.
    18. Curuk, Malik & Sen, Suphi, 2023. "Climate Policy and Resource Extraction with Variable Markups and Imperfect Substitutes," Other publications TiSEM fb4ca580-4747-4873-802c-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Yao Axel Ehouman, 2019. "Volatility transmission between oil prices and banks stock prices as a new source of instability: Lessons from the US Experience," Working Papers hal-04141868, HAL.
    20. Foroni, Claudia & Stracca, Livio, 2019. "Much ado about nothing? The shale oil revolution and the global supply curve," Working Paper Series 2309, European Central Bank.
    21. Shupei Huang & Haizhong An & Xiangyun Gao & Meihui Jiang, 2016. "The Multiscale Fluctuations of the Correlation between Oil Price and Wind Energy Stock," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-14, June.
    22. Farrokhi, Farid, 2020. "Global sourcing in oil markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    23. Kaznacheev, Peter F. (Казначеев, Петр) & Kjurchiski, Nikola V. (Кюрчиски, Никола) & Samoilova, Regina V. (Самойлова, Регина), 2017. "Adaptation to Lower Oil Prices: International Corporations and Junior Shale Companies [Адаптация К Снижению Цен На Нефть: Международные Корпорации И Сланцевые Компании]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 6, pages 148-159, December.
    24. Shaun McRae, 2017. "Crude Oil Price Differentials and Pipeline Infrastructure," NBER Working Papers 24170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Boda Kang & Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos & Marcel Prokopczuk, 2019. "Economic Determinants of Oil Futures Volatility: A Term Structure Perspective," Research Paper Series 401, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    26. Richard Jaimes & Reyer Gerlagh, 2017. "Resource-Richness and Economic Growth in Contemporary U.S," CESifo Working Paper Series 6778, CESifo.
    27. Maryam Ahmadi & Niaz Bashiri Behmiri & Matteo Manera, 2020. "The theory of storage in the crude oil futures market, the role of financial conditions," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1160-1175, July.
    28. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ahmed, Khalid & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Jiao, Zhilun, 2019. "Resource curse hypothesis and role of oil prices in USA," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    29. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Manickavasagam, Jeevananthan & Visalakshmi, S., 2022. "Effects of fundamentals, geopolitical risk and expectations factors on crude oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    30. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Frode Martin Nordvik & Maximilian Rohrer, 2021. "Supply flexibility in the shale patch: Evidence from North Dakota," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 273-292, April.
    31. Nida Cakir Melek & Michael Plante & Mine Yucel, 2021. "Resource Booms and the Macroeconomy: The Case of U.S. Shale Oil," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 42, pages 307-332, October.
    32. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2019. "Does Drawing Down the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Help Stabilize Oil Prices?," Working Papers 1916, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    33. Le, Thai-Ha & Boubaker, Sabri & Bui, Manh Tien & Park, Donghyun, 2023. "On the volatility of WTI crude oil prices: A time-varying approach with stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    34. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2018. "The propagation of regional shocks in housing markets: Evidence from oil price shocks in Canada," CFS Working Paper Series 606, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    35. Abid, Ilyes & Goutte, Stéphane & Guesmi, Khaled & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2019. "Transmission of shocks and contagion from U.S. to MENA equity markets: The role of oil and gas markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    36. Claudia Foroni & Livio Stracca, 2023. "The shale oil revolution and the global oil supply curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 370-387, April.
    37. Olufolajimi Oke & Daniel Huppmann & Max Marshall & Ricky Poulton & Sauleh Siddiqui, 2019. "Multimodal Transportation Flows in Energy Networks with an Application to Crude Oil Markets," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 521-555, June.
    38. Manuel Frondel and Marco Horvath, 2019. "The U.S. Fracking Boom: Impact on Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    39. Ferriani, Fabrizio & Natoli, Filippo & Veronese, Giovanni & Zeni, Federica, 2018. "Futures risk premia in the era of shale oil," MPRA Paper 89097, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    40. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014," CESifo Working Paper Series 5755, CESifo.
    41. Jiang, Yong & Liu, Cenjie & Xie, Rui, 2021. "Oil price shocks and credit spread: Structural effect and dynamic spillover," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    42. Smith, James L. & Lee, Thomas K., 2017. "The price elasticity of U.S. shale oil reserves," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 121-135.
    43. Saleh Mothana Obadi & Kristina Gardonova, 2019. "How does the Production of Unconventional Resources of Energy Influence Energy Security: Empirical Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(5), pages 46-54.
    44. Pick Schen Yip & Robert Brooks & Hung Xuan Do & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2019. "Dynamic Volatility Spillover Effect between Oil and Agricultural Products," Working Papers 2019-009, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    45. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Thomas K. Lee, 2016. "Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump," CESifo Working Paper Series 5759, CESifo.
    46. Lin, Boqiang & Bai, Rui, 2021. "Oil prices and economic policy uncertainty: Evidence from global, oil importers, and exporters’ perspective," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    47. Nida Çakır Melek & Michael D. Plante & Mine K. Yücel, 2017. "The U.S. Shale Oil Boom, the Oil Export Ban, and the Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis Nida," Research Working Paper RWP 17-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    48. Peter Öhlinger & Michael Irlacher & Jochen Güntner, 2024. "Not all oil types are alike in trade substitution," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    49. Lycheva, Maria & Mironenkov, Alexey & Kurbatskii, Alexey & Fantazzini, Dean, 2022. "Forecasting oil prices with penalized regressions, variance risk premia and Google data," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 68, pages 28-49.
    50. Monge, Manuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2021. "Lithium industry and the U.S. crude oil prices. A fractional cointegration VAR and a Continuous Wavelet Transform analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    51. Mastroeni, Loretta & Mazzoccoli, Alessandro & Quaresima, Greta & Vellucci, Pierluigi, 2021. "Decoupling and recoupling in the crude oil price benchmarks: An investigation of similarity patterns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    52. Oladosu, Gbadebo, 2022. "Bubbles in US gasoline prices: Assessing the role of hurricanes and anti–price gouging laws," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    53. Chen, Jianyu & Zhang, Jianshun, 2023. "Crude oil price shocks, volatility spillovers, and global systemic financial risk transmission mechanisms: Evidence from the stock and foreign exchange markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    54. Abid, Ilyes & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Mzoughi, Hela & Urom, Christian, 2024. "From black gold to financial fallout: Analyzing extreme risk spillovers in oil-exporting nations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    55. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2017. "Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is this Time Different?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6322, CESifo.
    56. Yao Axel Ehouman, 2020. "Volatility transmission between oil prices and banks’ stock prices as a new source of instability: Lessons from the United States experience," Post-Print hal-02960571, HAL.
    57. Lips, Johannes, 2018. "Debt and the Oil Industry - Analysis on the Firm and Production Level," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181504, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    58. Lin, Jie & Xiao, Hao & Chai, Jian, 2023. "Dynamic effects and driving intermediations of oil price shocks on major economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    59. Shi, Xunpeng & Shen, Yifan, 2021. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and natural gas prices: Revisiting the Asian Premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    60. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Hernandez, Jose Arreola & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Jammazi, Rania, 2018. "Asymmetric risk spillovers between oil and agricultural commodities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 182-198.
    61. Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Lafuente, Carmen, 2020. "An investigation of long range reliance on shale oil and shale gas production in the U.S. market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    62. Jiajia Bai & Guoqing Wang & Qingjie Zhu & Lei Tao & Wenyang Shi, 2022. "Investigation on Flowback Behavior of Imbibition Fracturing Fluid in Gas–Shale Multiscale Pore Structure," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-16, October.
    63. Lutz Hendricks & Oksana Leukhina, 2015. "How Risky is College Investment?," CESifo Working Paper Series 5203, CESifo.
    64. Maitham A. Rodhan, 2023. "The Effect of US Shale Oil Production on Local and International Oil Markets," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(4), pages 433-443, July.
    65. Diego Chicana & Rafael Nivin, 2021. "Evaluating Growth-at-Risk as a tool for monitoring macro-financial risks in the Peruvian economy," IHEID Working Papers 07-2021, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    66. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2019. "The nexus between the oil price and its volatility risk in a stochastic volatility in the mean model with time-varying parameters," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 572-584.
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    71. Dohyoung Kwon, 2024. "Changes in the effects of oil price shocks on US industrial production," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 2515-2526, April.
    72. Tarek Bouazizi & Zouhaier Hadhek & Fatma Mrad & Mosbah Lafi, 2021. "Changes in Demand for Crude Oil and its Correlation with Crude Oil and Stock Market Returns Volatilities: Evidence from Three Asian Oil Importing Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 27-43.
    73. Dagher, Leila & Jamali, Ibrahim & badra, nasser, 2018. "The Predictive Power of Oil and Commodity Prices for Equity Markets," MPRA Paper 116055, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    75. Hampf, Benjamin, 2017. "Rational inefficiency, adjustment costs and sequential technologies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 263(3), pages 1095-1108.
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    86. Sohag, Kazi & Kalina, Irina & Elsayed, Ahmed H., 2023. "Financial stress in Russia: Exploring the impact of oil market shocks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
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    234. Steve Crawford & Garen Markarian & Volkan Muslu & Richard Price, 2021. "Oil prices, earnings, and stock returns," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 218-257, March.
    235. Nygaard, Knut & Sørensen, Lars Qvigstad, 2024. "Betting on war? Oil prices, stock returns, and extreme geopolitical events," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
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    244. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2018. "The impact of oil-market shocks on stock returns in major oil-exporting countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 264-280.
    245. Zhou, Donghai & Liu, Xiaoxing & Tang, Chun, 2024. "Does the international oil market interact with China’s financial market? New evidence from time-varying higher moments," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    246. Honorata Nyga-Łukaszewska & Kentaka Aruga, 2020. "Energy Prices and COVID-Immunity: The Case of Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices in the US and Japan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-17, November.
    247. Serena Ng & Susannah Scanlan, 2023. "Constructing High Frequency Economic Indicators by Imputation," Papers 2303.01863, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    248. Dalheimer, Bernhard & Herwartz, Helmut & Lange, Alexander, 2021. "The threat of oil market turmoils to food price stability in Sub-Saharan Africa," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
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    251. Nonejad, Nima, 2022. "Equity premium prediction using the price of crude oil: Uncovering the nonlinear predictive impact," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    252. Herwartz, Helmut & Rohloff, Hannes & Wang, Shu, 2022. "Proxy SVAR identification of monetary policy shocks - Monte Carlo evidence and insights for the US," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
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    254. Wachtmeister, Henrik & Henke, Petter & Höök, Mikael, 2018. "Oil projections in retrospect: Revisions, accuracy and current uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 138-153.
    255. Hui, Cho-Hoi & Lo, Chi-Fai & Cheung, Chi-Hin & Wong, Andrew, 2020. "Crude oil price dynamics with crash risk under fundamental shocks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
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    257. Kennedy, Christopher A., 2024. "Energy constraints on macroeconomic paradigms," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    258. Grajzl, Peter & Murrell, Peter, 2023. "A macrohistory of legal evolution and coevolution: Property, procedure, and contract in early-modern English caselaw," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    259. Jackson, Tim, 2019. "The Post-growth Challenge: Secular Stagnation, Inequality and the Limits to Growth," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 236-246.
    260. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Rahman, Md Lutfur & Hedström, Axel & Ahmed, Ali, 2019. "Cross-quantilogram-based correlation and dependence between renewable energy stock and other asset classes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 743-759.
    261. Guo, Yangli & Li, Pan & Wu, Hanlin, 2023. "Jumps in the Chinese crude oil futures volatility forecasting: New evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    262. Kheiravar, Khaled H, 2019. "Economic and Econometric Analyses of the World Petroleum Industry, Energy Subsidies, and Air Pollution," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt3gj151w9, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    263. Matthew Klepacz, 2021. "Price Setting and Volatility: Evidence from Oil Price Volatility Shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1316, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    264. Yang, Tianle & Zhou, Fangxing & Du, Min & Du, Qunyang & Zhou, Shirong, 2023. "Fluctuation in the global oil market, stock market volatility, and economic policy uncertainty: A study of the US and China," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 377-387.
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  35. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Joint Confidence Sets for Structural Impulse Responses," CESifo Working Paper Series 5746, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Impulse Response Matching Estimators for DSGE Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 5730, CESifo.
    2. Nikola Kutin & Zakaria Moussa & Thomas Vallée, 2018. "Factors behind the Freight Rates in the Liner Shipping Industry," Working Papers halshs-01828633, HAL.
    3. Kilian, Lutz & Inoue, Atsushi, 2020. "The Role of the Prior in Estimating VAR Models with Sign Restrictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15545, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Atsushi Inoue & Òscar Jordà & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2023. "Significance Bands for Local Projections," Working Paper Series 2023-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2014. "Measuring Forecast Uncertainty of Corporate Bond Spreads by Bonferroni-Type Prediction Bands," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 6(2), pages 89-104, June.
    6. Simone D. Grose & Gael M. Martin & D.S. Poskitt, 2014. "Bias Correction of Persistence Measures in Fractionally Integrated Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 19/14, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    7. Lynda Khalaf & Beatriz Peraza López, 2020. "Simultaneous Indirect Inference, Impulse Responses and ARMA Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-26, April.
    8. Paul Beaudry & Fabrice Collard & Patrick Feve & Alain Guay & Franck Portier, 2022. "Dynamic Identification in VARs," Working Papers 22-08, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    9. Carsten Trenkler & Enzo Weber, 2020. "Identifying shocks to business cycles with asynchronous propagation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1815-1836, April.
    10. Atsushi Inoue & `Oscar Jord`a & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2023. "Inference for Local Projections," Papers 2306.03073, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    11. Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Netsunajev, Aleksei, 2017. "Crimea and punishment: the impact of sanctions on Russian and European economies," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2017-5, Bank of Estonia, revised 11 Sep 2017.
    12. Helmut Lütkepohl & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2018. "Calculating joint confidence bands for impulse response functions using highest density regions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1389-1411, December.
    13. Daniel Grabowski & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2020. "Skewness-adjusted bootstrap confidence intervals and confidence bands for impulse response functions," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 104(1), pages 5-32, March.
    14. Jonas E. Arias & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2020. "Uniform Priors for Impulse Responses," Working Papers 22-30, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    15. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2020. "Joint Bayesian inference about impulse responses in VAR models," CFS Working Paper Series 650, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    16. Paul Carrillo‐Maldonado, 2023. "Partial identification for growth regimes: The case of Latin American countries," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 557-583, July.
    17. Harrison, Andre & Reed, Robert R., 2023. "Gross capital inflows, the U.S. economy, and the response of the Federal Reserve," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    18. José Luis Montiel Olea & Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller, 2021. "Local Projection Inference Is Simpler and More Robust Than You Think," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(4), pages 1789-1823, July.
    19. Endong Wang, 2024. "Structural counterfactual analysis in macroeconomics: theory and inference," Papers 2409.09577, arXiv.org.
    20. Bojaj, Martin M. & Muhadinovic, Milica & Bracanovic, Andrej & Mihailovic, Andrej & Radulovic, Mladen & Jolicic, Ivan & Milosevic, Igor & Milacic, Veselin, 2022. "Forecasting macroeconomic effects of stablecoin adoption: A Bayesian approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    21. Blazsek, Szabolcs & Licht, Adrian, 2019. "Co-integration and common trends analysis with score-driven models : an application to the federal funds effective rate and US inflation rate," UC3M Working papers. Economics 28451, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    22. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2019. "The Uniform Validity of Impulse Response Inference in Autoregressions," Working Papers 1908, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    23. Lieb, Lenard & Smeekes, Stephan, 2017. "Inference for Impulse Responses under Model Uncertainty," Research Memorandum 022, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    24. Helmut Lütkepohl & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2018. "Constructing Joint Confidence Bands for Impulse Response Functions of VAR Models: A Review," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1762, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    25. Demetrescu, Matei & Salish, Nazarii, 2024. "(Structural) VAR models with ignored changes in mean and volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 840-854.
    26. Montiel Olea, José Luis & Nesbit, James, 2021. "(Machine) learning parameter regions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 716-744.
    27. Hafner, Christian M. & Herwartz, Helmut & Wang, Shu, 2023. "Causal inference with (partially) independent shocks and structural signals on the global crude oil market," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2023004, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    28. Bojaj, Martin M. & Djurovic, Gordana & Fabris, Nikola & Milovic, Nikola, 2023. "Top 1% and inequality connectedness in the EMU and WB," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 139-155.

  36. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014," CESifo Working Paper Series 5755, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Nida Çakır Melek & Troy Davig & Jun Nie & Andrew Lee Smith & Didem Tuzemen, 2015. "Evaluating a Year of Oil Price Volatility," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-30.
    2. Wang, Yudong & Hao, Xianfeng, 2023. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil: What is the role of parameter instability?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    3. Coglianese, John & Davis, Lucas W. & Kilian, Lutz & Stock, James H., 2015. "Anticipation, tax avoidance, and the price elasticity of gasoline demand," CFS Working Paper Series 503, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    4. Delle Chiaie, Simona & Ferrara, Laurent & Giannone, Domenico, 2018. "Common factors of commodity prices," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 51.
    5. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2019. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates," Working Papers 1914, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. Philip K. Verleger Jr., 2015. "Structure Matters: Oil Markets Enter the Adelman Era," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Adelman S).
    7. Claudio Morana, 2016. "Macroeconomic and Financial Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Evidence for the Euro Area," CeRP Working Papers 158, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
    8. Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2016. "The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1605, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. Rodrigo da Silva Souza & Leonardo Bornacki Mattos, 2022. "Oil price shocks and global liquidity: macroeconomic effects on the Brazilian real," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 761-781, October.
    10. Scott M. R. Mahadeo & Reinhold Heinlein & Gabriella Deborah Legrenzi, 2018. "Energy Contagion Analysis: A New Perspective with Application to a Small Petroleum Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 7279, CESifo.
    11. Lutz Kilian, 2016. "The Impact of the Shale Oil Revolution on U.S. Oil and Gasoline Prices," CESifo Working Paper Series 5723, CESifo.
    12. Juan Antolín-Díaz & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2017. "Narrative Sign Restrictions for SVARs," Working Papers 2017-07, FEDEA.
    13. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Al-ahdal, Waleed M. & Rusere, Warren & Ali, Azwadi & Nor, Safwan Mohd, 2024. "Impact of firm characteristics and country-level governance on global energy stocks during crises," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(PA).
    14. Lutz Kilian, 2019. "Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling," CESifo Working Paper Series 7902, CESifo.
    15. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2016. "The impact of oil price shocks on the U.S. stock market: A note on the roles of U.S. and non-U.S. oil production," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 176-181.
    16. Al Rousan, Sahel & Sbia, Rashid & Tas, Bedri Kamil Onur, 2018. "A dynamic network analysis of the world oil market: Analysis of OPEC and non-OPEC members," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 28-41.
    17. Monge, Manuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Pérez de Gracia, Fernando, 2017. "U.S. shale oil production and WTI prices behaviour," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 12-19.
    18. Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel & McCrorie, J. Roderick & Paraskevopoulos, Ioannis, 2020. "Mild explosivity in recent crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    19. Martin Geiger & Jochen Güntner, 2019. "How are oil supply shocks transmitted to the U.S. economy?," Economics working papers 2019-13, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    20. Tan Ngoc Vu & Duc Hong Vo & Chi Minh Ho & Loan Thi-Hong Van, 2019. "Modeling the Impact of Agricultural Shocks on Oil Price in the US: A New Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-27, September.
    21. Fantazzini, Dean, 2016. "The Oil Price Crash in 2014/15: Was There a (Negative) Financial Bubble?," MPRA Paper 72094, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Lyu, Yongjian & Wang, Peng & Wei, Yu & Ke, Rui, 2017. "Forecasting the VaR of crude oil market: Do alternative distributions help?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 523-534.
    23. Alberto Behar & Robert A. Ritz, 2016. "OPEC vs US shale oil: Analyzing the shift to a market-share strategy," Working Papers EPRG 1612, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    24. Reinhold Heinlein & Scott M. R. Mahadeo, 2023. "Oil and US stock market shocks: Implications for Canadian equities," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(1), pages 247-287, February.
    25. Wen, Danyan & Wang, Gang-Jin & Ma, Chaoqun & Wang, Yudong, 2019. "Risk spillovers between oil and stock markets: A VAR for VaR analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 524-535.
    26. Almansour, Abdullah, 2023. "Crude oil cycles and the choice of private vs public school: Evidence from Saudi Arabia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    27. Grace Taylor & Rod Tyers, 2017. "Secular Stagnation: Determinants and Consequences for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(303), pages 615-650, December.
    28. Daniel Santabárbara, 2017. "The oil market: recent developments and outlook," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue SEP.
    29. Raphael Raduzzi & Antonio Ribba, 2017. "The Macroeconomics Outcome of Oil Shocks in the Small Eurozone Economies," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 127, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    30. Behar, Alberto & Ritz, Robert A., 2017. "OPEC vs US shale: Analyzing the shift to a market-share strategy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 185-198.
    31. Jesser Roberto Paladines Amaiquema & Alexander Ruben Paladines Amaiquema, 2017. "Consequences of Oil and Food Price Shocks on the Ecuadorian Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 146-151.
    32. Afees Adebare Salisu & Idris A. Adediran, 2018. "The U.S. Shale Oil Revolution and the Behavior of Commodity Prices," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 3(1), pages 27-53, September.
    33. Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Wu, Wenfeng, 2016. "Disentangling the determinants of real oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 363-373.
    34. Teti, Emanuele & Dallocchio, Maurizio & De Sanctis, Daniele, 2020. "Effects of oil price fall on the betas in the Unconventional Oil & Gas Industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    35. Kaznacheev, Peter F. (Казначеев, Петр) & Kjurchiski, Nikola V. (Кюрчиски, Никола) & Samoilova, Regina V. (Самойлова, Регина), 2017. "Adaptation to Lower Oil Prices: International Corporations and Junior Shale Companies [Адаптация К Снижению Цен На Нефть: Международные Корпорации И Сланцевые Компании]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 6, pages 148-159, December.
    36. Güntner, Jochen & Öhlinger, Peter, 2022. "Oil price shocks and the hedging benefit of airline investments," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    37. Wolfgang Albrecht & Martin Steinrücke, 2020. "Continuous-time scheduling of production, distribution and sales in photovoltaic supply chains with declining prices," Flexible Services and Manufacturing Journal, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 629-667, September.
    38. Richard Jaimes & Reyer Gerlagh, 2017. "Resource-Richness and Economic Growth in Contemporary U.S," CESifo Working Paper Series 6778, CESifo.
    39. Sussman, Nathan & Zohar, Osnat, 2016. "Has Inflation Targeting Become Less Credible? Oil Prices, Global Aggregate Demand and Inflation Expectations during the Globa," CEPR Discussion Papers 11535, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    40. Kallis, Giorgos & Sager, Jalel, 2017. "Oil and the economy: A systematic review of the literature for ecological economists," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 561-571.
    41. Huang, Dayong & Li, Jay Y. & Wu, Kai, 2021. "The effect of oil supply shocks on industry returns," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    42. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Klein, Tony & Walther, Thomas, 2020. "Reviewing the oil price–GDP growth relationship: A replication study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    43. Marc Joëts & Valérie Mignon & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2015. "Does the volatility of commodity prices reflect macroeconomic uncertainty?," Working Papers 2015-02, CEPII research center.
    44. Ohnsorge, Franziska & Kabundi, Alain, 2020. "Implications of Cheap Oil for Emerging Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 15296, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    45. Markus Brueckner & Haidi Hong & Joaquin Vespignani, 2023. "Regulation of Petrol and Diesel Prices and their Effects on GDP Growth: Evidence from China," CAMA Working Papers 2023-17, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    46. Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Kim, Jihun, 2019. "Crude oil price shocks and hedging performance: A comparison of volatility models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1132-1147.
    47. Toon Vandyck & Alban Kitous & Bert Saveyn & Kimon Keramidas & Luis Rey Los Santos & Krzysztof Wojtowicz, 2018. "Economic Exposure to Oil Price Shocks and the Fragility of Oil-Exporting Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-19, April.
    48. Adom, Philip Kofi, 2017. "The long-run price sensitivity dynamics of industrial and residential electricity demand: The impact of deregulating electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 43-60.
    49. Fédéric Holm-Hadulla & Kirstin Hubrich, 2017. "Macroeconomic Implications of Oil Price Fluctuations : A Regime-Switching Framework for the Euro Area," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-063, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    50. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ahmed, Khalid & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Jiao, Zhilun, 2019. "Resource curse hypothesis and role of oil prices in USA," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    51. David S. Jacks & Martin Stuermer, 2016. "What drives commodity price booms and busts?," Working Papers 1614, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    52. Alban Kitous & Bert Saveyn & Kimon Keramidas & Toon Vandyck & Luis Rey Los Santos & Krzysztof Wojtowicz, 2016. "Impact of low oil prices on oil exporting countries," JRC Research Reports JRC101562, Joint Research Centre.
    53. Nathan Sussman & Osnat Zohar, 2016. "Has Inflation Targeting Become Less Credible? Oil Prices, Global Aggregate Demand and Inflation Expectations during the Global Financial Crisis," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2016.13, Bank of Israel.
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    4. Apostolos Serletis & Libo Xu, "undated". "Markov Switching Oil Price Uncertainty," Working Papers 2019-02, Department of Economics, University of Calgary, revised 02 Jan 2019.
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    62. Zhang, Yaojie & Wahab, M.I.M. & Wang, Yudong, 2023. "Forecasting crude oil market volatility using variable selection and common factor," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 486-502.
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    66. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian & Polat, Onur, 2024. "Forecasting U.S. recessions using over 150 years of data: Stock-market moments versus oil-market moments," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
    67. Olovsson, Conny, 2016. "Oil prices in a real-businesscycle model with precautionary demand for oil," Working Paper Series 332, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
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    69. Xin Sheng & Rangan Gupta & Qiang Ji, 2023. "The Effects of Disaggregate Oil Shocks on the Aggregate Expected Skewness of the United States," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-9, October.
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    74. Mont'Alverne Duarte, Angelo & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & de Carvalho Guillén, Osmani Teixeira & Issler, João Victor, 2021. "Commodity prices and global economic activity: A derived-demand approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
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  38. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Thomas K. Lee, 2016. "Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump," CESifo Working Paper Series 5759, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Coglianese, John & Davis, Lucas W. & Kilian, Lutz & Stock, James H., 2015. "Anticipation, tax avoidance, and the price elasticity of gasoline demand," CFS Working Paper Series 503, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    2. Sameh Asim Ajlouni & Moh'd Taleb Alodat, 2021. "Gaussian Process Regression for Forecasting Gasoline Prices in Jordan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 502-509.
    3. Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2020. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions," Working Papers 2020_08, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    4. Marco Barassi & Yuqian Zhao, 2018. "Combination Forecasting of Energy Demand in the UK," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(1_suppl), pages 209-238, June.
    5. Markos Farag, Stephen Snudden, Greg Upton, 2024. "Can Futures Prices Predict the Real Price of Primary Commodities?," LCERPA Working Papers jc0145, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised 2024.
    6. Baumeister, Christiane & Ellwanger, Reinhard & Kilian, Lutz, 2016. "Did the renewable fuel standard shift market expectations of the price of ethanol?," CFS Working Paper Series 563, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    7. Arunanondchai, Panit & Senia, Mark C. & Capps, Oral Jr, 2017. "Can U.S. EIA Retail Gasoline Price Forecasts Be Improved Upon?," 2017 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2017, Mobile, Alabama 252717, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    8. Gupta, Rangan & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2018. "OPEC news and predictability of oil futures returns and volatility: Evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 206-214.
    9. Pincheira-Brown, Pablo & Bentancor, Andrea & Hardy, Nicolás & Jarsun, Nabil, 2022. "Forecasting fuel prices with the Chilean exchange rate: Going beyond the commodity currency hypothesis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    10. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2017. "Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is this Time Different?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6322, CESifo.
    11. Zouhaier Dhifaoui & Sami Ben Jabeur & Rabeh Khalfaoui & Muhammad Ali Nasir, 2023. "Time‐varying partial‐directed coherence approach to forecast global energy prices with stochastic volatility model," Post-Print hal-04296385, HAL.
    12. Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch & Aviral K. Tiwari, 2024. "Gasoline Prices and Presidential Approval Ratings of the United States," Working Papers 202427, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    13. Ellwanger, Reinhard & Snudden, Stephen, 2023. "Forecasts of the real price of oil revisited: Do they beat the random walk?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    14. Binder, Carola Conces, 2018. "Inflation expectations and the price at the pump," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-18.
    15. Pincheira, Pablo & Jarsun, Nabil, 2020. "Summary of the Paper Entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate," MPRA Paper 105056, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Bumpass, Donald & Douglas, Christopher & Ginn, Vance & Tuttle, M.H., 2019. "Testing for short and long-run asymmetric responses and structural breaks in the retail gasoline supply chain," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 311-318.
    17. Reinhard Ellwanger, Stephen Snudden, Lenin Arango-Castillo, 2023. "Seize the Last Day: Period-End-Point Sampling for Forecasts of Temporally Aggregated Data," LCERPA Working Papers bm0142, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis.
    18. Feng Xu & Mohamad Sepehri & Jian Hua & Sergey Ivanov & Julius N. Anyu, 2018. "Time-Series Forecasting Models for Gasoline Prices in China," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(12), pages 1-43, December.
    19. Reinhard Ellwanger, Stephen Snudden, 2021. "Predictability of Aggregated Time Series," LCERPA Working Papers bm0127, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis.

  39. Lutz Kilian, 2016. "The Impact of the Fracking Boom on Arab Oil Producers," CESifo Working Paper Series 5751, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Bataa, Erdenebat & Park, Cheolbeom, 2017. "Is the recent low oil price attributable to the shale revolution?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 72-82.
    2. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2019. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates," Working Papers 1914, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Richard G. Newell & Brian C. Prest, 2019. "The Unconventional Oil Supply Boom: Aggregate Price Response from Microdata," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(3), pages 1-30, May.
    4. Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2016. "The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1605, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    5. Ahmadi, Maryam & Manera, Matteo & Sadeghzadeh, Mehdi, 2019. "The investment-uncertainty relationship in the oil and gas industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Lutz Kilian, 2016. "The Impact of the Shale Oil Revolution on U.S. Oil and Gasoline Prices," CESifo Working Paper Series 5723, CESifo.
    7. Saleh Mothana Obadi & Matej Korcek, 2024. "The Relationship between Geopolitical Events and the Crude Oil Prices: An Application of ARDL Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(5), pages 85-97, September.
    8. Lutz Kilian, 2019. "Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling," CESifo Working Paper Series 7902, CESifo.
    9. Jochen Güntner & Johannes Henler, 2021. "Exogenous Oil supply Shocks in OPEC and Non-OPEC Countries," The Energy Journal, , vol. 42(6), pages 229-246, November.
    10. Monge, Manuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Pérez de Gracia, Fernando, 2017. "U.S. shale oil production and WTI prices behaviour," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 12-19.
    11. Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel & McCrorie, J. Roderick & Paraskevopoulos, Ioannis, 2020. "Mild explosivity in recent crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    12. Martin Geiger & Jochen Güntner, 2019. "How are oil supply shocks transmitted to the U.S. economy?," Economics working papers 2019-13, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    13. Isabel Figuerola‐Ferretti & Alejandro Rodríguez & Eduardo Schwartz, 2021. "Oil price analysts' forecasts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(9), pages 1351-1374, September.
    14. Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Polo, Michele, 2019. "Convergence of European natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 793-811.
    15. Storrøsten, Halvor Briseid, 2024. "U.S. light tight oil supply flexibility - A multivariate dynamic model for production and rig activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    16. Nathan S Balke & Xin Jin & Mine Yücel, 2024. "The Shale Revolution and the Dynamics of the Oil Market," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(662), pages 2252-2289.
    17. Khalil, Makram, 2020. "Global oil prices and the macroeconomy: The role of tradeable manufacturing versus nontradeable services," Discussion Papers 60/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Kilian, Lutz & Inoue, Atsushi, 2020. "The Role of the Prior in Estimating VAR Models with Sign Restrictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15545, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Afees Adebare Salisu & Idris A. Adediran, 2018. "The U.S. Shale Oil Revolution and the Behavior of Commodity Prices," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 3(1), pages 27-53, September.
    20. Foroni, Claudia & Stracca, Livio, 2019. "Much ado about nothing? The shale oil revolution and the global supply curve," Working Paper Series 2309, European Central Bank.
    21. Libo Xu, 2024. "On the WTI-WCS Oil Price Differential," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 52(2), pages 67-77, September.
    22. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2018. "Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Information: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand S," CEPR Discussion Papers 13068, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Antonio J. Garz n & Luis . Hierro, 2018. "Fracking, Wars and Stock Market Crashes: The Price of Oil During the Great Recession," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(2), pages 20-30.
    24. Alonso-Alvarez, Irma & Di Nino, Virginia & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2022. "Strategic interactions and price dynamics in the global oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    25. Baumeister, Christiane & Ellwanger, Reinhard & Kilian, Lutz, 2016. "Did the renewable fuel standard shift market expectations of the price of ethanol?," CFS Working Paper Series 563, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    26. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2019. "Does Drawing Down the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Help Stabilize Oil Prices?," Working Papers 1916, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    27. David S. Jacks & Martin Stuermer, 2016. "What drives commodity price booms and busts?," Working Papers 1614, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    28. Hamed Ghoddusi & Franz Wirl, 2019. "A Risk-Hedging View to Refinery Capacity Investment," Working Papers 1327, Economic Research Forum, revised 21 Aug 2019.
    29. Abid, Ilyes & Goutte, Stéphane & Guesmi, Khaled & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2019. "Transmission of shocks and contagion from U.S. to MENA equity markets: The role of oil and gas markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    30. Claudia Foroni & Livio Stracca, 2023. "The shale oil revolution and the global oil supply curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 370-387, April.
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    32. Ferriani, Fabrizio & Natoli, Filippo & Veronese, Giovanni & Zeni, Federica, 2018. "Futures risk premia in the era of shale oil," MPRA Paper 89097, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    47. Torben K. Mideksa, 2021. "Pricing for a Cooler Planet: An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Taxing Carbon," CESifo Working Paper Series 9172, CESifo.
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    49. Oladosu, Gbadebo, 2022. "Bubbles in US gasoline prices: Assessing the role of hurricanes and anti–price gouging laws," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
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    55. Jordi J. Teixidó & F. Javier Palencia-González & José M. Labeaga & Xavier Labandeira, 2024. "Carbon Leakage from Fuel Taxes: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(12), pages 3235-3270, December.
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    85. Atems, Bebonchu & Mette, Jehu & Lin, Guoyu & Madraki, Golshan, 2023. "Estimating and forecasting the impact of nonrenewable energy prices on US renewable energy consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    86. Tabaghdehi, Seyedeh Asieh H. & Hunter, John, 2020. "Long-run price behaviour in the gasoline market - The role of exogeneity," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 620-627.
    87. Yuri Fonseca & Marcelo Medeiros & Gabriel Vasconcelos & Alvaro Veiga, 2018. "BooST: Boosting Smooth Trees for Partial Effect Estimation in Nonlinear Regressions," Papers 1808.03698, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2020.
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    89. Goodell, John W. & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Paltrinieri, Andrea & Piserà, Stefano, 2024. "Do price caps assist monetary authorities to control inflation? Examining the impact of the natural gas price cap on TTF spikes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    90. Chuang, Shih-Hsien, 2024. "Behavioral optimization of US air travel taxes," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    91. Luca Gandullia & Stefano Piserà, 2020. "Do income taxes affect corporate social responsibility? Evidence from European‐listed companies," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(2), pages 1017-1027, March.
    92. Goetzke, Frank & Vance, Colin, 2018. "Is gasoline price elasticity in the United States increasing? Evidence from the 2009 and 2017 national household travel surveys," Ruhr Economic Papers 765, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    93. Rittenhouse, Katherine & Zaragoza-Watkins, Matthew, 2018. "Anticipation and environmental regulation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 255-277.
    94. Huntington, Hillard G., 2018. "Measuring oil supply disruptions: A historical perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 426-433.
    95. Doga Bilgin & Reinhard Ellwanger, 2019. "The Simple Economics of Global Fuel Consumption," Staff Working Papers 19-35, Bank of Canada.
    96. Duan, Kun & Ren, Xiaohang & Shi, Yukun & Mishra, Tapas & Yan, Cheng, 2021. "The marginal impacts of energy prices on carbon price variations: Evidence from a quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    97. James H. Stock, 2019. "Climate Change, Climate Policy, and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34, pages 399-419, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    98. Davide Cerruti & Anna Alberini & Joshua Linn, 2019. "Charging Drivers by the Pound: How Does the UK Vehicle Tax System Affect CO2 Emissions?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 74(1), pages 99-129, September.
    99. Sanyal, Anirban, 2021. "Impact of US-China Trade War on Indian External Trade," EconStor Preprints 242250, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

  41. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "A General Approach to Recovering Market Expectations from Futures Prices with an Application to Crude Oil," Staff Working Papers 16-18, Bank of Canada.

    Cited by:

    1. Daniele Valenti & Matteo Manera & Alessandro Sbuelz, 2018. "Interpreting the Oil Risk Premium: do Oil Price Shocks Matter?," Working Papers 2018.03, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Richard G. Newell & Brian C. Prest, 2019. "The Unconventional Oil Supply Boom: Aggregate Price Response from Microdata," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(3), pages 1-30, May.
    3. Haicheng Shu & Peter Spencer, 2023. "Oil prices in the real economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(6), pages 878-897, September.
    4. Adams, Zeno & Collot, Solène & Kartsakli, Maria, 2020. "Have commodities become a financial asset? Evidence from ten years of Financialization," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    5. Arbatli, Cemal Eren & Gomtsyan, David, 2021. "Sectarian aid, sanctions and subnational development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    6. Sung Je Byun, 2016. "Speculation in Commodity Futures Markets, Inventories and the Price of Crude Oil," Occasional Papers 16-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    7. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2024. "Expectations and Speculation in the Natural Gas Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 11341, CESifo.
    8. Gambetti, Luca & Moretti, Laura, 2017. "News, Noise and Oil Price Swings," Research Technical Papers 12/RT/17, Central Bank of Ireland.
    9. Thomas Conlon & John Cotter & Emmanuel Eyiah-Donkor, 2022. "The illusion of oil return predictability: The choice of data matters!," Post-Print hal-03519860, HAL.
    10. Potanin, Bogdan & Trifonov, Juri, 2021. "The influence of investors’ expectations on oil prices," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 63, pages 76-90.
    11. Conlon, Thomas & Cotter, John & Eyiah-Donkor, Emmanuel, 2024. "Forecasting the price of oil: A cautionary note," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    12. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014," CESifo Working Paper Series 5755, CESifo.
    13. Bielen, David A. & Newell, Richard G. & Pizer, William A., 2018. "Who did the ethanol tax credit benefit? An event analysis of subsidy incidence," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 1-14.
    14. Ben Zeev, Nadav & Pappa, Evi & Vicondoa, Alejandro, 2017. "Emerging economies business cycles: The role of commodity terms of trade news," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 368-376.
    15. J. David López-Salido & Francesca Loria, 2020. "Inflation at Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-013, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Konstantinos Gkillas & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2020. "Oil shocks and volatility jumps," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 247-272, January.
    17. Wei Wei & Asger Lunde, 2020. "Identifying Risk Factors and Their Premia: A Study on Electricity Prices," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/20, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    18. Chen, Lin & Wen, Fenghua & Zhang, Yun & Miao, Xiao, 2023. "Oil supply expectations and corporate social responsibility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    19. Wei Wei & Asger Lunde, 2023. "Identifying Risk Factors and Their Premia: A Study on Electricity Prices," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(5), pages 1647-1679.
    20. Balcılar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2015. "Regional and global spillovers and diversification opportunities in the GCC equity sectors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 160-187.
    21. Czudaj, Robert L., 2022. "Heterogeneity of beliefs and information rigidity in the crude oil market: Evidence from survey data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    22. Arnold McIntyre & Ahmed El-Ashram & Mr. Márcio Valério Ronci & Julien Reynaud & Ms. Natasha X Che & Ke Wang & Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia & Mr. Mark Scott Lutz, 2016. "Caribbean Energy: Macro-Related Challenges," IMF Working Papers 2016/053, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Huang, Shupei & An, Haizhong & Wen, Shaobo & An, Feng, 2017. "Revisiting driving factors of oil price shocks across time scales," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 617-629.
    24. John Cotter & Emmanuel Eyiah-Donkor & Valerio Potì, 2023. "Commodity futures return predictability and intertemporal asset pricing," Post-Print hal-04192933, HAL.
    25. De Rezende, Rafael B., 2016. "The interest rate effects of government bond purchases away from the lower bound," Working Paper Series 324, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    26. Newell, Richard G. & Prest, Brian C., 2017. "Is the US the New Swing Producer? The Price-Responsiveness of Tight Oil," RFF Working Paper Series 17-15, Resources for the Future.
    27. Prest, Brian C., 2020. "Supply-Side Reforms to Oil and Gas Production on Federal Lands: Modeling the Implications for Climate Emissions, Revenues, and Production Shifts," RFF Working Paper Series 20-16, Resources for the Future.
    28. Ziran Li & Dermot J. Hayes & Keri L. Jacobs, 2018. "The weather premium in the U.S. corn market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 359-372, March.
    29. Jorge Toro & Aarón Garavito & David Camilo López & Enrique Montes, 2015. "El choque petrolero y sus implicaciones en la economía colombiana," Borradores de Economia 906, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    30. Kruse, Robinson & Wegener, Christoph, 2020. "Time-varying persistence in real oil prices and its determinant," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    31. Reinhard Ellwanger, 2017. "On the Tail Risk Premium in the Oil Market," Staff Working Papers 17-46, Bank of Canada.
    32. Jacopo Piana & Daniele Bianchi, 2017. "Expected Spot Prices and the Dynamics of Commodity Risk Premia," 2017 Meeting Papers 1149, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    33. Wang, Lijun & An, Haizhong & Liu, Xiaojia & Huang, Xuan, 2016. "Selecting dynamic moving average trading rules in the crude oil futures market using a genetic approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1608-1618.
    34. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2024. "Functional Oil Price Expectations Shocks and Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 10998, CESifo.
    35. Trifonov, Juri, 2023. "Modeling the risk premium in the Russian stock market considering the asymmetry effect," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 71, pages 5-19.
    36. Brandt, Michael W. & Gao, Lin, 2019. "Macro fundamentals or geopolitical events? A textual analysis of news events for crude oil," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 64-94.
    37. Reinhard Ellwanger, Stephen Snudden, 2021. "Predictability of Aggregated Time Series," LCERPA Working Papers bm0127, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis.
    38. Efthymios G. Pavlidis & Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2018. "Using Market Expectations to Test for Speculative Bubbles in the Crude Oil Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(5), pages 833-856, August.
    39. Lin, Jilei & Eck, Daniel J., 2021. "Minimizing post-shock forecasting error through aggregation of outside information," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1710-1727.

  42. Kilian, Lutz, 2014. "Oil Price Shocks: Causes and Consequences," CEPR Discussion Papers 9823, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    1. Salisu, Afees A. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2023. "Oil tail risks and the realized variance of consumer prices in advanced economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    2. Claudio Morana, 2016. "Macroeconomic and Financial Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Evidence for the Euro Area," CeRP Working Papers 158, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
    3. Noori, Mohammad, 2024. "Stock-oil comovements through fear, uncertainty, and expectations: Evidence from conditional comoments," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 529-551.
    4. Ivan, Miruna-Daniela & Banti, Chiara & Kellard, Neil, 2025. "Liquidity, monetary policy and the commodity futures market," Bank of England working papers 1114, Bank of England.
    5. Lutz Kilian, 2016. "The Impact of the Shale Oil Revolution on U.S. Oil and Gasoline Prices," CESifo Working Paper Series 5723, CESifo.
    6. Cristina Conflitti and Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Oil Price Pass-through into Core Inflation," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
    7. Gao, Liping & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Saba, Richard, 2014. "How Do Oil Price Shocks Affect Consumer Prices?," MPRA Paper 57259, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Le Xu & Francesco Zanetti, 2025. "Charting the Uncharted: The (Un)Intended Consequences of Oil Sanctions and Dark Shipping," Economics Series Working Papers 1070, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Mozhgan Raeisian Parvari, 2014. "Iranian-Oil-Free Zone and International Oil Prices," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201427, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    10. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2017. "The nexus between the oil price and its volatility in a stochastic volatility in mean model with time-varying parameters," Working Papers 15-33, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    11. Henry Egbezien Inegbedion & Emmanuel Inegbedion & Eseosa Obadiaru & Abiola Asaleye, 2020. "Petroleum Subsidy Withdrawal, Fuel Price Hikes and the Nigerian Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(4), pages 258-265.
    12. Khalil, Makram, 2020. "Global oil prices and the macroeconomy: The role of tradeable manufacturing versus nontradeable services," Discussion Papers 60/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Fetzer, Thiemo & Palmou, Christina & Schneebacher, Jakob, 2024. "How do firms cope with economic shocks in real time?," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 722, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    14. Su, Chi-Wei & Khan, Khalid & Tao, Ran & Umar, Muhammad, 2020. "A review of resource curse burden on inflation in Venezuela," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    15. Oladosu, Gbadebo A. & Leiby, Paul N. & Bowman, David C. & Uría-Martínez, Rocio & Johnson, Megan M., 2018. "Impacts of oil price shocks on the United States economy: A meta-analysis of the oil price elasticity of GDP for net oil-importing economies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 523-544.
    16. Marei Elbadri & Eralp Bektaş, 2022. "Dynamic relationship among the bank stability, oil, and gold prices: Evidence from the Islamic banks operating in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2153-2168, April.
    17. Fenghua Wen & Jihong Xiao & Chuangxia Huang & Xiaohua Xia, 2018. "Interaction between oil and US dollar exchange rate: nonlinear causality, time-varying influence and structural breaks in volatility," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 319-334, January.
    18. Bastianin, Andrea & Manera, Matteo, 2018. "How Does Stock Market Volatility React To Oil Price Shocks?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 666-682, April.
    19. Sarit Maitra & Vivek Mishra & Sukanya Kundu & Manav Chopra, 2023. "Econometric Model Using Arbitrage Pricing Theory and Quantile Regression to Estimate the Risk Factors Driving Crude Oil Returns," Papers 2309.13096, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    20. Christopher Thiem, 2018. "Oil price uncertainty and the business cycle: Accounting for the influences of global supply and demand within a VAR GARCH-in-mean framework," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(34-35), pages 3735-3751, July.
    21. Gilles Dufrénot & William Ginn & Marc Pourroy, 2023. "ENSO Climate Patterns on Global Economic Conditions," Working Papers hal-04064759, HAL.
    22. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2017. "Oil currencies in the face of oil shocks: what can be learned from time-varying specifications?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(18), pages 1774-1793, April.
    23. Hakan Oner & Hande Kilic Satici, 2020. "How does gold and oil price volatility affect Turkish financial markets?," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 9(4), pages 262-270, July.
    24. Lorusso, Marco & Pieroni, Luca, 2018. "Causes and consequences of oil price shocks on the UK economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 223-236.
    25. Mohamad B. Karaki, 2018. "Asymmetries In The Responses Of Regional Job Flows To Oil Price Shocks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(3), pages 1827-1845, July.
    26. Magdalena Cornejo & Michelle Hallack & Matias David, 2024. "The Transition to Renewables: Dampening the Impact of Fossil Fuel Price Shocks on Local Inflation," Working Papers 345, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    27. Nie, Pu-yan & Yang, Yong-cong, 2016. "Effects of energy price fluctuations on industries with energy inputs: An application to China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 329-334.
    28. Lynda Khalaf & Beatriz Peraza López, 2020. "Simultaneous Indirect Inference, Impulse Responses and ARMA Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-26, April.
    29. Kallis, Giorgos & Sager, Jalel, 2017. "Oil and the economy: A systematic review of the literature for ecological economists," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 561-571.
    30. Huang, Dayong & Li, Jay Y. & Wu, Kai, 2021. "The effect of oil supply shocks on industry returns," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    31. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2014. "The role of oil price shocks in causing U.S. recessions," CFS Working Paper Series 460, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    32. Antonio J. Garz n & Luis . Hierro, 2018. "Fracking, Wars and Stock Market Crashes: The Price of Oil During the Great Recession," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(2), pages 20-30.
    33. Marc Joëts & Valérie Mignon & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2015. "Does the volatility of commodity prices reflect macroeconomic uncertainty?," Working Papers 2015-02, CEPII research center.
    34. Catherine Hausman & Ryan Kellogg, 2015. "Welfare and Distributional Implications of Shale Gas," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(1 (Spring), pages 71-139.
    35. Zhang, Chuanguo & Shang, Hongli, 2023. "Asymmetry effect of oil price shocks and the lagging effect of oil price jumps: Evidence from China's automobile markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    36. Fédéric Holm-Hadulla & Kirstin Hubrich, 2017. "Macroeconomic Implications of Oil Price Fluctuations : A Regime-Switching Framework for the Euro Area," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-063, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    37. Tarek Ghazouani, 2020. "Energy Price Shocks and Financial Market Integration: Evidence from New Keynesian Model," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(1), pages 13-32, February.
    38. Sek, Siok Kun, 2019. "Unveiling the factors of oil versus non-oil sources in affecting the global commodity prices: A combination of threshold and asymmetric modeling approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 272-280.
    39. Tony Addison & Atanu Ghoshray & Michalis P. Stamatogiannis, 2016. "Agricultural Commodity Price Shocks and Their Effect on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 47-61, February.
    40. Wong, Jin Boon & Hasan, Mostafa Monzur, 2021. "Oil shocks and corporate payouts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    41. Nenubari John Ikue & Lamin Mohammed Magaji & Samuel Zeb-Omoni & Mohammed, Aminu Usman & Joseph Osaro Denwi, 2021. "Trade Balance and Oil Shocks in African Oil Exporting Countries: A Panel Threshold Regression," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 10(4), pages 150-166, October.
    42. Madler, Jochen & Harding, Sebastian & Weibelzahl, Martin, 2023. "A multi-agent model of urban microgrids: Assessing the effects of energy-market shocks using real-world data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 343(C).
    43. Zhang, Wen, 2022. "China’s government spending and global inflation dynamics: The role of the oil price channel," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    44. William Ginn, 2024. "Agricultural fluctuations and global economic conditions," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 160(3), pages 1037-1056, August.
    45. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin & Özkan, Oktay, 2023. "Geopolitical oil price uncertainty transmission into core inflation: Evidence from two of the biggest global players," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    46. Liu, Donghui & Meng, Lingjie & Wang, Yudong, 2020. "Oil price shocks and Chinese economy revisited: New evidence from SVAR model with sign restrictions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 20-32.
    47. Pham T. T. Trinh & Bui T. T. My, 2023. "The impact of world oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables in Vietnam: the transmission through domestic oil price," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 37(1), pages 67-87, May.
    48. Monge, Manuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Pérez de Gracia, Fernando, 2017. "Crude oil price behaviour before and after military conflicts and geopolitical events," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 79-91.
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    50. Shi, Xunpeng & Sun, Sizhong, 2017. "Energy price, regulatory price distortion and economic growth: A case study of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 261-271.
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    52. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2018. "The propagation of regional shocks in housing markets: Evidence from oil price shocks in Canada," CFS Working Paper Series 606, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    53. Chai, Jian & Lu, Quanying & Hu, Yi & Wang, Shouyang & Lai, Kin Keung & Liu, Hongtao, 2018. "Analysis and Bayes statistical probability inference of crude oil price change point," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 271-283.
    54. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Klein, Tony & Walther, Thomas, 2018. "Oil Price Changes and U.S. Real GDP Growth: Is this Time Different?," QBS Working Paper Series 2018/03, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
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    58. Vo, D.H. & Vu, T.N. & Vo, A.T. & McAleer, M.J., 2018. "Modelling the Relationship between Crude Oil and Agricultural Commodity Prices," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2019-10, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    59. Takuji Fueki & Jouchi Nakajima & Shinsuke Ohyama & Yoichiro Tamanyu, 2021. "Identifying oil price shocks and their consequences: The role of expectations in the crude oil market," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 53-76, April.
    60. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2017. "Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?," Staff Working Papers 17-50, Bank of Canada.
    61. Smith, James L. & Lee, Thomas K., 2017. "The price elasticity of U.S. shale oil reserves," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 121-135.
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    24. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Wu, Chongfeng, 2017. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil using forecast combinations over time-varying parameter models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 337-348.
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    62. Wen, Danyan & Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2021. "Intraday return predictability in China’s crude oil futures market: New evidence from a unique trading mechanism," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 209-219.
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    71. Reinhard Ellwanger, Stephen Snudden, 2021. "Predictability of Aggregated Time Series," LCERPA Working Papers bm0127, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis.
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    1. Wang, Yudong & Hao, Xianfeng, 2023. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil: What is the role of parameter instability?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    2. Rubaszek, Michał & Karolak, Zuzanna & Kwas, Marek, 2020. "Mean-reversion, non-linearities and the dynamics of industrial metal prices. A forecasting perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Isabel Figuerola‐Ferretti & Alejandro Rodríguez & Eduardo Schwartz, 2021. "Oil price analysts' forecasts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(9), pages 1351-1374, September.
    4. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2014. "A general approach to recovering market expectations from futures prices with an application to crude oil," CFS Working Paper Series 466, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    5. Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2020. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions," Working Papers 2020_08, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    6. Drachal, Krzysztof, 2021. "Forecasting selected energy commodities prices with Bayesian dynamic finite mixtures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    7. Jean-Thomas Bernard & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian & Clement Yelou, 2015. "Oil Price Forecasts for the Long-Term: Expert Outlooks, Models, or Both?," Cahiers de recherche CREATE 2015-3, CREATE.
    8. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2024. "Risk premium, price of risk and expected volatility in the oil market: Evidence from survey data," Post-Print hal-04873466, HAL.
    9. Xuluo Yin & Jiangang Peng & Tian Tang, 2018. "Improving the Forecasting Accuracy of Crude Oil Prices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-9, February.
    10. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2021. "Modeling ex-ante risk premia in the oil market," Post-Print hal-03318785, HAL.
    11. Lynda Khalaf & Beatriz Peraza López, 2020. "Simultaneous Indirect Inference, Impulse Responses and ARMA Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-26, April.
    12. Liao, Hua & Cai, Jia-Wei & Yang, Dong-Wei & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2016. "Why did the historical energy forecasting succeed or fail? A case study on IEA's projection," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 90-96.
    13. Reinhard Ellwanger & Stephen Snudden, 2023. "Futures Prices are Useful Predictors of the Spot Price of Crude Oil," The Energy Journal, , vol. 44(4), pages 65-82, July.
    14. Conlon, Thomas & Cotter, John & Eyiah-Donkor, Emmanuel, 2024. "Forecasting the price of oil: A cautionary note," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    15. Gupta, Rangan & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2018. "OPEC news and predictability of oil futures returns and volatility: Evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 206-214.
    16. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Wu, Chongfeng, 2017. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil using forecast combinations over time-varying parameter models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 337-348.
    17. Zhang, Yaojie & Ma, Feng & Wang, Yudong, 2019. "Forecasting crude oil prices with a large set of predictors: Can LASSO select powerful predictors?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 97-117.
    18. Michail Filippidis & George Filis & Georgios Magkonis, 2024. "Evaluating Oil Price Forecasts: A Meta-analysis," The Energy Journal, , vol. 45(2), pages 71-89, March.
    19. Li, Xuemei & Liu, Xiaoxing, 2023. "Functional classification and dynamic prediction of cumulative intraday returns in crude oil futures," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    20. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Ortega, Hector & Valencia, Consuelo, 2021. "How good are analyst forecasts of oil prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    21. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2018. "Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 54-78.
    22. Funashima, Yoshito, 2020. "Global economic activity indexes revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    23. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2017. "Forecasting oil prices," MPRA Paper 77531, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Thomas K. Lee, 2016. "Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump," CESifo Working Paper Series 5759, CESifo.
    25. Hao, Xianfeng & Zhao, Yuyang & Wang, Yudong, 2020. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil using robust regression models with regularization constraints," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    26. Krüger, Jens & Ruths Sion, Sebastian, 2019. "Improving oil price forecasts by sparse VAR methods," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 237, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    27. Chu, Pyung Kun & Hoff, Kristian & Molnár, Peter & Olsvik, Magnus, 2022. "Crude oil: Does the futures price predict the spot price?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    28. Nima Nonejad, 2024. "Point forecasts of the price of crude oil: an attempt to “beat” the end-of-month random-walk benchmark," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 1497-1539, October.
    29. Wang, Yudong & Hao, Xianfeng, 2022. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil: A robust weighted least squares approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    30. Nicholas Apergis, 2023. "Forecasting energy prices: Quantile‐based risk models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 17-33, January.
    31. Jihad El Hokayem & Ibrahim Jamali & Ale Hejase, 2024. "A forecasting model for oil prices using a large set of economic indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1615-1624, August.
    32. Zhang, Yaojie & Wang, Yudong, 2023. "Forecasting crude oil futures market returns: A principal component analysis combination approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 659-673.
    33. Cheng, Fangzheng & Fan, Tijun & Fan, Dandan & Li, Shanling, 2018. "The prediction of oil price turning points with log-periodic power law and multi-population genetic algorithm," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 341-355.
    34. John Cotter & Emmanuel Eyiah-Donkor & Valerio Potì, 2023. "Commodity futures return predictability and intertemporal asset pricing," Post-Print hal-04192933, HAL.
    35. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L. & Arora, Vipin, 2020. "The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    36. Zhang, Yaojie & Ma, Feng & Shi, Benshan & Huang, Dengshi, 2018. "Forecasting the prices of crude oil: An iterated combination approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 472-483.
    37. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2023. "Oil price assumptions for macroeconomic policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    38. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Arora, Vipin, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," MPRA Paper 96270, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    39. Lof, Matthijs & Nyberg, Henri, 2017. "Noncausality and the commodity currency hypothesis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 424-433.
    40. Bos, Martijn & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2018. "Oil returns and volatility: The role of mergers and acquisitions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 62-69.
    41. Ellwanger, Reinhard & Snudden, Stephen, 2023. "Forecasts of the real price of oil revisited: Do they beat the random walk?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    42. Кулкаева Алтын // Altyn Kulkayeva & Тайбекова Аида // Taibekova Aida & Орлов Константин // Orlov Konstantin, 2024. "Прогнозирование цен на нефть // Predicting Oil Prices," Working Papers #2024-6, National Bank of Kazakhstan.
    43. Anthony Garratt & Shaun P. Vahey & Ynuyi Zhang, 2018. "Real-time Forecast Combinations for the Oil Price," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 494, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    44. Yi, Yongsheng & Ma, Feng & Zhang, Yaojie & Huang, Dengshi, 2018. "Forecasting the prices of crude oil using the predictor, economic and combined constraints," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 237-245.
    45. Zied Ftiti & Kais Tissaoui & Sahbi Boubaker, 2022. "On the relationship between oil and gas markets: a new forecasting framework based on a machine learning approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 915-943, June.
    46. Garratt, Anthony & Petrella, Ivan & Zhang, Yunyi, 2022. "Asymmetry and Interdependence when Evaluating U.S. Energy Information Administration Forecasts," MPRA Paper 115559, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    47. Han, Liyan & Lv, Qiuna & Yin, Libo, 2017. "Can investor attention predict oil prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 547-558.
    48. Amor Aniss Benmoussa & Reinhard Ellwanger & Stephen Snudden, 2020. "The New Benchmark for Forecasts of the Real Price of Crude Oil," Staff Working Papers 20-39, Bank of Canada.
    49. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2018. "Forecasting oil prices: High-frequency financial data are indeed useful," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 388-402.
    50. Mont'Alverne Duarte, Angelo & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & de Carvalho Guillén, Osmani Teixeira & Issler, João Victor, 2021. "Commodity prices and global economic activity: A derived-demand approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    51. Danish A. Alvi, 2018. "Application of Probabilistic Graphical Models in Forecasting Crude Oil Price," Papers 1804.10869, arXiv.org.
    52. George Filis & Stavros Degiannakis & Zacharias Bragoudakis, 2022. "Forecasting macroeconomic indicators for Eurozone and Greece: How useful are the oil price assumptions?," Working Papers 296, Bank of Greece.
    53. Reinhard Ellwanger, Stephen Snudden, 2021. "Predictability of Aggregated Time Series," LCERPA Working Papers bm0127, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis.
    54. Funk, Christoph, 2018. "Forecasting the real price of oil - Time-variation and forecast combination," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 288-302.
    55. Zhang, Zhikai & He, Mengxi & Zhang, Yaojie & Wang, Yudong, 2022. "Geopolitical risk trends and crude oil price predictability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    56. Yin, Libo & Yang, Qingyuan, 2016. "Predicting the oil prices: Do technical indicators help?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 338-350.
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    Cited by:

    1. Delle Chiaie, Simona & Ferrara, Laurent & Giannone, Domenico, 2018. "Common factors of commodity prices," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 51.
    2. Valérie Mignon & Yifei Cai & Jamel Saadaoui, 2022. "Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US-China tensions on the oil market," Working Papers hal-04159797, HAL.
    3. Daniele Valenti & Matteo Manera & Alessandro Sbuelz, 2018. "Interpreting the Oil Risk Premium: do Oil Price Shocks Matter?," Working Papers 2018.03, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    4. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2019. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates," Working Papers 1914, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. Yao, Ting & Zhang, Yue-Jun & Ma, Chao-Qun, 2017. "How does investor attention affect international crude oil prices?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 336-344.
    6. Mr. Ron Alquist & Mr. Olivier Coibion, 2013. "The Comovement in Commodity Prices: Sources and Implications," IMF Working Papers 2013/140, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Nan, Yu & Sun, Renjin & Zhen, Zhao & Fangjing, Chu, 2022. "Measurement of international crude oil price cyclical fluctuations and correlation with the world economic cyclical changes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    8. Ahmadi, Maryam & Manera, Matteo & Sadeghzadeh, Mehdi, 2019. "The investment-uncertainty relationship in the oil and gas industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    9. Gianluca Cafiso, 2022. "Loans to Different Groups and Economic Activity at Times of Crisis and Growth," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(3), pages 594-623, June.
    10. Lutz Kilian, 2019. "Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling," CESifo Working Paper Series 7902, CESifo.
    11. Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel & McCrorie, J. Roderick & Paraskevopoulos, Ioannis, 2020. "Mild explosivity in recent crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
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    27. Wang, Yudong & Hao, Xianfeng, 2022. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil: A robust weighted least squares approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
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    29. Nicholas Apergis, 2023. "Forecasting energy prices: Quantile‐based risk models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 17-33, January.
    30. Jihad El Hokayem & Ibrahim Jamali & Ale Hejase, 2024. "A forecasting model for oil prices using a large set of economic indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1615-1624, August.
    31. Zhang, Yaojie & Wang, Yudong, 2023. "Forecasting crude oil futures market returns: A principal component analysis combination approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 659-673.
    32. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2023. "Oil price assumptions for macroeconomic policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    33. Ellwanger, Reinhard & Snudden, Stephen, 2023. "Forecasts of the real price of oil revisited: Do they beat the random walk?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    34. Wen, Danyan & Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2022. "Forecasting crude oil market returns: Enhanced moving average technical indicators," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    35. Anastasios G. Malliaris & Mary Malliaris, 2021. "What Microeconomic Fundamentals Drove Global Oil Prices during 1986–2020?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-13, August.
    36. Benk, Szilard & Gillman, Max, 2023. "Identifying money and inflation expectation shocks to real oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
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    45. George Filis & Stavros Degiannakis & Zacharias Bragoudakis, 2022. "Forecasting macroeconomic indicators for Eurozone and Greece: How useful are the oil price assumptions?," Working Papers 296, Bank of Greece.
    46. Reinhard Ellwanger, Stephen Snudden, 2021. "Predictability of Aggregated Time Series," LCERPA Working Papers bm0127, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis.
    47. Lyu, Yongjian & Yi, Heling & Wei, Yu & Yang, Mo, 2021. "Revisiting the role of economic uncertainty in oil price fluctuations: Evidence from a new time-varying oil market model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
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    50. Zhang, Zhikai & He, Mengxi & Zhang, Yaojie & Wang, Yudong, 2022. "Geopolitical risk trends and crude oil price predictability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    51. Drachal, Krzysztof, 2021. "Forecasting crude oil real prices with averaging time-varying VAR models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    52. Benjamin Beckers & Samya Beidas-Strom, 2015. "Forecasting the Nominal Brent Oil Price with VARs—One Model Fits All?," IMF Working Papers 2015/251, International Monetary Fund.

  48. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2013. "Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis," Staff Working Papers 13-25, Bank of Canada.

    Cited by:

    1. Cristiana Belu Manescu & Ine Van Robays, 2016. "Forecasting the Brent Oil Price: Addressing Time-Variation in Forecast Performance," CESifo Working Paper Series 6242, CESifo.
    2. Jean-Thomas Bernard & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian & Clement Yelou, 2015. "Oil Price Forecasts for the Long-Term: Expert Outlooks, Models, or Both?," Cahiers de recherche CREATE 2015-3, CREATE.
    3. Mohamad B. Karaki, 2018. "Asymmetries In The Responses Of Regional Job Flows To Oil Price Shocks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(3), pages 1827-1845, July.
    4. Xuluo Yin & Jiangang Peng & Tian Tang, 2018. "Improving the Forecasting Accuracy of Crude Oil Prices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-9, February.
    5. Kilian, Lutz & Baumeister, Christiane & Lee, Thomas K, 2014. "Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10075, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Arunanondchai, Panit & Senia, Mark C. & Capps, Oral Jr, 2017. "Can U.S. EIA Retail Gasoline Price Forecasts Be Improved Upon?," 2017 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2017, Mobile, Alabama 252717, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    7. Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre & Kilian, Lutz, 2015. "Do high-frequency financial data help forecast oil prices? The MIDAS touch at work," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 238-252.
    8. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2013. "Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach," Staff Working Papers 13-28, Bank of Canada.
    9. Kilian, Lutz & Baumeister, Christiane, 2013. "Do Oil Price Increases Cause Higher Food Prices?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2017. "Forecasting oil prices," MPRA Paper 77531, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Thomas K. Lee, 2016. "Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump," CESifo Working Paper Series 5759, CESifo.
    12. Hui Jun ZHANG & Jean-Marie DUFOUR & John W. GALBRAITH, 2013. "Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices : Measuring Causality at Multiple Horizons," Cahiers de recherche 14-2013, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    13. Elder, John & Miao, Hong & Ramchander, Sanjay, 2014. "Price discovery in crude oil futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 18-27.
    14. Andrea Bastianin & Matteo Manera, 2020. "A test of time reversibility based on Lmoments with an application to the business cycles of the G7 economies," Working Papers 445, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2020.
    15. Anthony Garratt & Shaun P. Vahey & Ynuyi Zhang, 2018. "Real-time Forecast Combinations for the Oil Price," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 494, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    16. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2018. "Forecasting oil prices: High-frequency financial data are indeed useful," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 388-402.
    17. Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Yang, Li, 2018. "Predictability of crude oil prices: An investor perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 193-205.
    18. Funk, Christoph, 2018. "Forecasting the real price of oil - Time-variation and forecast combination," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 288-302.

  49. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2013. "Do Oil Price Increases Cause Higher Food Prices?," Staff Working Papers 13-52, Bank of Canada.

    Cited by:

    1. Ing-Haw Cheng & Wei Xiong, 2014. "Financialization of Commodity Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 419-441, December.
    2. Delle Chiaie, Simona & Ferrara, Laurent & Giannone, Domenico, 2018. "Common factors of commodity prices," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 51.
    3. Peersman, Gert & Rüth, Sebastian K. & Van der Veken, Wouter, 2019. "The interplay between oil and food commodity prices: Has It changed over time?," Working Papers 0665, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    4. Etienne, Xiaoli, 2015. "Financialization of Agricultural Commodity Markets: Do Financial Data Help to Forecast Agricultural Prices," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211626, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Carter, Colin A & Rausser, Gordon C & Smith, Aaron, 2017. "Commodity Storage and the Market Effects of Biofuel Policies," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt61t114zb, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    6. Sun, Yunpeng & Gao, Pengpeng & Raza, Syed Ali & Shah, Nida & Sharif, Arshian, 2023. "The asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on the world food prices: Fresh evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    7. Jacek Kulawik & Michał Soliwoda & Agnieszka Kurdyś-Kujawska & Justyna Herda-Kopańska & Cezary Klimkowski, 2023. "Cost of Energy Consumption and Return of Excise Tax on Motor Fuels vs. the Durability of Operations and Financial Sustainability in Polish Agriculture," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-22, December.
    8. Ferguson, Shon & Ubilava, David, 2022. "Global commodity market disruption and the fallout," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(04), January.
    9. Cristina Conflitti and Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Oil Price Pass-through into Core Inflation," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
    10. Lutz Kilian, 2019. "Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling," CESifo Working Paper Series 7902, CESifo.
    11. Tan Ngoc Vu & Duc Hong Vo & Chi Minh Ho & Loan Thi-Hong Van, 2019. "Modeling the Impact of Agricultural Shocks on Oil Price in the US: A New Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-27, September.
    12. Vincent Brémond & Emmanuel Hache & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2016. "The Oil Price and Exchange Rate Relationship Revisited: A time-varying VAR parameter approach," Post-Print halshs-01683809, HAL.
    13. Erten Bilge & Tuzcuoglu Kerem, 2018. "Output Effects of Global Food Commodity Shocks," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, June.
    14. Muhammad Abubakr Naeem & Saqib Farid & Safwan Mohd Nor & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2021. "Spillover and Drivers of Uncertainty among Oil and Commodity Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-26, February.
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    18. Mora Barrenechea, Mauricio, 2020. "Time-varying effects of commodities prices in the Bolivian economy," MPRA Paper 104706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Hüseyin İçen & Nimet Melis Esenyel İçen & Buğra Polat, 2022. "The Asymmetric Relationship Among Food Prices, the Exchange Rate, and Oil Prices in Turkey," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(37), pages 149-169, December.
    20. Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2022. "Understanding the food component of inflation," Papers 2212.09380, arXiv.org.
    21. Jesser Roberto Paladines Amaiquema & Alexander Ruben Paladines Amaiquema, 2017. "Consequences of Oil and Food Price Shocks on the Ecuadorian Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 146-151.
    22. Pozo, Veronica F. & Bejan, Vladimir & Bachmeier, Lance, 2017. "Are Price Transmissions between U.S. Energy and Corn Markets Asymmetric?," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258232, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    23. Christian P Pinshi, 2022. "Ciblage des prévisions d'inflation : Un nouveau cadre pour la politique monétaire ?," Working Papers hal-03548273, HAL.
    24. Christian Elleby, 2014. "Poverty and Price Transmission," IFRO Working Paper 2015/01, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    25. Cao, Yan & Cheng, Sheng & Li, Xinran, 2024. "Co-movements between heterogeneous crude oil and food markets: Does temperature change really matter?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
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    27. Sussman, Nathan & Zohar, Osnat, 2016. "Has Inflation Targeting Become Less Credible? Oil Prices, Global Aggregate Demand and Inflation Expectations during the Globa," CEPR Discussion Papers 11535, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    28. Lucotte, Yannick, 2016. "Co-movements between crude oil and food prices: A post-commodity boom perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 142-147.
    29. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem O., 2018. "Predicting US inflation: Evidence from a new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 134-158.
    30. Marc Joëts & Valérie Mignon & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2015. "Does the volatility of commodity prices reflect macroeconomic uncertainty?," Working Papers 2015-02, CEPII research center.
    31. Pozo, Veronica F. & Bejan, Vladimir, 2016. "Identification in Structural Models Linking Energy and Corn Commodity Markets," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 236055, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    32. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Karim, Sitara & Hasan, Mudassar & Lucey, Brian M. & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "Nexus between oil shocks and agriculture commodities: Evidence from time and frequency domain," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    33. Cao, An N.Q. & Heckelei, Thomas & Ionici, Octavian & Robe, Michel A., 2024. "USDA reports affect the stock market, too," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
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    35. Louw, M. & Meyer, F. & Kirsten, J., 2018. "Fundamental Drivers of Food Inflation - Evidence from South Africa," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277190, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    36. Baumeister, Christiane & Ellwanger, Reinhard & Kilian, Lutz, 2016. "Did the renewable fuel standard shift market expectations of the price of ethanol?," CFS Working Paper Series 563, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    37. Chi-Young Choi & Alexander Chudik, 2019. "Estimating Impulse Response Functions When the Shock Series Is Observed," Globalization Institute Working Papers 353, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    38. Eissa, Mohamad Abdelaziz & Al Refai, Hisham, 2019. "Modelling the symmetric and asymmetric relationships between oil prices and those of corn, barley, and rapeseed oil," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
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    41. Miroslava Ivanova & Lilko Dospatliev, 2023. "Effects of Diesel Price on Changes in Agricultural Commodity Prices in Bulgaria," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-22, January.
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    44. Tan Ngoc Vu & Chi Minh Ho & Thang Cong Nguyen & Duc Hong Vo, 2020. "The Determinants of Risk Transmission between Oil and Agricultural Prices: An IPVAR Approach," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-14, April.
    45. Liu, Donghui & Meng, Lingjie & Wang, Yudong, 2020. "Oil price shocks and Chinese economy revisited: New evidence from SVAR model with sign restrictions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 20-32.
    46. Nathan Sussman & Osnat Zohar, 2022. "Have Inflation Expectations Become Un-anchored? The Role of Oil Prices and Global Aggregate Demand," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(2), pages 149-192, June.
    47. Karakotsios, Achillefs & Katrakilidis, Constantinos & Kroupis, Nikolaos, 2021. "The dynamic linkages between food prices and oil prices. Does asymmetry matter?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
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    49. Xiao Yukun, 2017. "The impact of international energy price on Romanian macroeconomic," HOLISTICA – Journal of Business and Public Administration, Sciendo, vol. 8(2), pages 97-105, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Yudong & Hao, Xianfeng, 2023. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil: What is the role of parameter instability?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    2. Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K, 2013. "Quantifying the Speculative Component in the Real Price of Oil: The Role of Global Oil Inventories," CEPR Discussion Papers 9297, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2013. "Forecasting Crude Oil Price Movements with Oil-Sensitive Stocks," MPRA Paper 49240, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Khan, Faridoon & Muhammadullah, Sara & Sharif, Arshian & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2024. "The role of green energy stock market in forecasting China's crude oil market: An application of IIS approach and sparse regression models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    5. Kilian, Lutz & Baumeister, Christiane, 2012. "What Central Bankers Need to Know about Forecasting Oil Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 9118, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Lutz Kilian, 2016. "The Impact of the Fracking Boom on Arab Oil Producers," CESifo Working Paper Series 5751, CESifo.
    7. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2011. "Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 326-336, September.
    8. Giannone, Domenico & Banbura, Marta & Lenza, Michele, 2014. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," CEPR Discussion Papers 9931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Cristiana Belu Manescu & Ine Van Robays, 2016. "Forecasting the Brent Oil Price: Addressing Time-Variation in Forecast Performance," CESifo Working Paper Series 6242, CESifo.
    10. Andreas Karathanasopoulos, 2017. "Modelling and trading commodities with a new deep belief network," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 28-34.
    11. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2013. "Are product spreads useful for forecasting? An empirical evaluation of the Verleger hypothesis," CFS Working Paper Series 2013/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    12. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2024. "Risk premium, price of risk and expected volatility in the oil market: Evidence from survey data," Post-Print hal-04873466, HAL.
    13. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2021. "Modeling ex-ante risk premia in the oil market," Post-Print hal-03318785, HAL.
    14. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2014. "The role of oil price shocks in causing U.S. recessions," CFS Working Paper Series 460, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    15. Kilian, Lutz & Baumeister, Christiane & Lee, Thomas K, 2014. "Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10075, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Michael W. McCracken & Joseph McGillicuddy & Michael T. Owyang, 2019. "Binary Conditional Forecasts," Working Papers 2019-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Apr 2021.
    17. Reinhard Ellwanger, 2019. "A Structural Model of the Global Oil Market," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-17, Bank of Canada.
    18. Ding, Yishan, 2018. "A novel decompose-ensemble methodology with AIC-ANN approach for crude oil forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 328-336.
    19. Baumeister, Christiane, 2023. "Pandemic, War, Inflation: Oil Markets at a Crossroads?," CEPR Discussion Papers 18347, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Michael W. McCracken & Joseph McGillicuddy, 2017. "An Empirical Investigation of Direct and Iterated Multistep Conditional Forecasts," Working Papers 2017-40, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    21. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Wu, Chongfeng, 2017. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil using forecast combinations over time-varying parameter models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 337-348.
    22. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Diao, Xundi & Wu, Chongfeng, 2015. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil under economic and statistical constraints," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 599-608.
    23. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2013. "Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach," Staff Working Papers 13-28, Bank of Canada.
    24. Antonello D'Agostino & Michele Modugno & Chiara Osbat, 2015. "A Global Trade Model for the Euro Area," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    25. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014," CESifo Working Paper Series 5755, CESifo.
    26. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2014. "Evaluating Conditional Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers (Old Series) 1413, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    27. Hao, Xianfeng & Zhao, Yuyang & Wang, Yudong, 2020. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil using robust regression models with regularization constraints," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
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    31. S. Delle Chiaie., 2013. "Oil and the macroeconomy - Summary of the Banque de France workshop on 14 November 2012," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 29, pages 49-55, Spring.
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    35. Amar Rao & Marco Tedeschi & Kamel Si Mohammed & Umer Shahzad, 2024. "Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty in Energy Commodities Prices Forecasting: Evidence from a Hybrid Deep Learning Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(6), pages 3295-3315, December.
    36. Helmut Herwartz & Alexander Lange, 2024. "How certain are we about the role of uncertainty in the economy?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 126-149, January.
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    38. Mokinski, Frieder, 2017. "A severity function approach to scenario selection," Discussion Papers 34/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    39. Reza Hafezi & Amir Naser Akhavan & Mazdak Zamani & Saeed Pakseresht & Shahaboddin Shamshirband, 2019. "Developing a Data Mining Based Model to Extract Predictor Factors in Energy Systems: Application of Global Natural Gas Demand," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-22, October.
    40. Antonio M. Conti & Andrea Nobili & Federico M. Signoretti, 2018. "Bank capital constraints, lending supply and economic activity," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1199, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    41. Zankawah, Mutawakil M. & Stewart, Chris, 2019. "Does the exogeneity of oil prices matter in the oil price-macro-economy relationship for Ghana?," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-2, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
    42. Petrella, Ivan & Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco, 2018. "Structural Scenario Analysis with SVARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 12579, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    43. Drachal, Krzysztof, 2018. "Comparison between Bayesian and information-theoretic model averaging: Fossil fuels prices example," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 208-251.
    44. Eisa Maboudian & Khashayar Seyyed Shokri, 2015. "Reinvestigation of Oil Price-Stock Market Nexus in Iran: A SVAR Approach," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 19(1), pages 81-90, Winter.
    45. Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Yang, Li, 2018. "Predictability of crude oil prices: An investor perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 193-205.
    46. Padhan, Hemachandra & Kocoglu, Mustafa & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Haouas, Ilham, 2024. "Economic activities, dry bulk freight, and economic policy uncertainties as drivers of oil prices: A tail-behaviour time-varying causality perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    47. George Filis & Stavros Degiannakis & Zacharias Bragoudakis, 2022. "Forecasting macroeconomic indicators for Eurozone and Greece: How useful are the oil price assumptions?," Working Papers 296, Bank of Greece.
    48. Soojin Jo, 2014. "The Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty on Global Real Economic Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(6), pages 1113-1135, September.
    49. Kilian, Lutz, 2011. "Structural Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8515, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    50. Dalheimer, Bernhard & Herwartz, Helmut & Lange, Alexander, 2021. "The threat of oil market turmoils to food price stability in Sub-Saharan Africa," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    51. Doga Bilgin & Reinhard Ellwanger, 2019. "The Simple Economics of Global Fuel Consumption," Staff Working Papers 19-35, Bank of Canada.
    52. Lin, Jilei & Eck, Daniel J., 2021. "Minimizing post-shock forecasting error through aggregation of outside information," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1710-1727.

  52. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2012. "Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries," CEPR Discussion Papers 8980, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2013. "Forecasting Crude Oil Price Movements with Oil-Sensitive Stocks," MPRA Paper 49240, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Imran Shah, 2012. "Revisiting the Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shock on Small Developing Economies," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 12/626, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    3. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "Should crude oil price volatility receive more attention than the price of crude oil? An empirical investigation via a large‐scale out‐of‐sample forecast evaluation of US macroeconomic data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 769-791, August.
    4. Ben-Salha, Ousama & Mokni, Khaled, 2022. "Detrended cross-correlation analysis in quantiles between oil price and the US stock market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    5. Khan, Faridoon & Muhammadullah, Sara & Sharif, Arshian & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2024. "The role of green energy stock market in forecasting China's crude oil market: An application of IIS approach and sparse regression models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    6. Cheng, Zishu & Li, Mingchen & Sun, Yuying & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Shouyang, 2024. "Climate change and crude oil prices: An interval forecast model with interval-valued textual data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    7. Bakas, Dimitrios & Ioakimidis, Marilou & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2020. "Commodity Price Uncertainty as a Leading Indicator of Economic Activity," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 27361, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    8. Erdemalp Ozden & Didem Guleryuz, 2022. "Optimized Machine Learning Algorithms for Investigating the Relationship Between Economic Development and Human Capital," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(1), pages 347-373, June.
    9. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Antonio M. Conti & Fabrizio Venditti, 2016. "The Financial Stability Dark Side of Monetary Policy," BCAM Working Papers 1601, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    10. Ben Salem, Leila & Nouira, Ridha & Saafi, Sami & Rault, Christophe, 2024. "How do oil prices affect the GDP and its components? New evidence from a time-varying threshold model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    11. Maheu, John M & Yang, Qiao & Song, Yong, 2018. "Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth: The Volatility Link," MPRA Paper 83779, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Noguera, José, 2017. "The Seven Sisters versus OPEC: Solving the mystery of the petroleum market structure," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 298-305.
    13. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "Predicting equity premium using news-based economic policy uncertainty: Not all uncertainty changes are equally important," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    14. Lu Wang & Feng Ma & Guoshan Liu & Qiaoqi Lang, 2023. "Do extreme shocks help forecast oil price volatility? The augmented GARCH‐MIDAS approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 2056-2073, April.
    15. Nonejad, Nima, 2019. "Forecasting aggregate equity return volatility using crude oil price volatility: The role of nonlinearities and asymmetries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    16. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Common cycles and common trends in the stock and oil markets: Evidence from more than 150years of data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 72-86.
    17. Nima Nonejad, 2020. "Does the price of crude oil help predict the conditional distribution of aggregate equity return?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 313-349, January.
    18. Moses Tule & Afees Salisu & Charles Chiemeke, 2020. "Improving Nigeria’s Inflation Forecast with Oil Price: The Role of Estimators," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(1), pages 191-229, March.
    19. Valadkhani, Abbas & Ghazanfari, Arezoo & Nguyen, Jeremy & Moradi-Motlagh, Amir, 2021. "The asymmetric effects of COVID19 on wholesale fuel prices in Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 255-266.
    20. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem O., 2018. "Predicting US inflation: Evidence from a new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 134-158.
    21. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2014. "The role of oil price shocks in causing U.S. recessions," CFS Working Paper Series 460, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    22. Basel Awartani & Aktham Maghyereh & Julie Ayton, 2019. "Oil Price Changes And Industrial Output In The Mena Region: Nonlinearities And Asymmetries," Working Papers 1342, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Sep 2019.
    23. Lu, Xinjie & Ma, Feng & Wang, Tianyang & Wen, Fenghua, 2023. "International stock market volatility: A data-rich environment based on oil shocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 184-215.
    24. Wang, Shu & Zhou, Baicheng & Gao, Tianshu, 2023. "Speculation or actual demand? The return spillover effect between stock and commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    25. Salisu, Afees A. & Ademuyiwa, Idris & Isah, Kazeem O., 2018. "Revisiting the forecasting accuracy of Phillips curve: The role of oil price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 334-356.
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    50. Dany, Geraldine, 2016. "The credit channel during times of financial stress: A time varying VAR analysis," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145899, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    51. Marek A. Dąbrowski & Łukasz Kwiatkowski & Justyna Wróblewska, 2020. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Variability in Central and Eastern European Countries: Evidence from Structural Bayesian MSH-VAR Models," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 12(4), pages 369-412, December.
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    45. Papapostolou, Nikos C. & Pouliasis, Panos K. & Nomikos, Nikos K. & Kyriakou, Ioannis, 2016. "Shipping investor sentiment and international stock return predictability," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 81-94.
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    Cited by:

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    35. P. A. Nazarov & Kazakova, Maria, 2014. "Development of Prediction Model of Basic Budget Parameters in Russian Federation," Published Papers r90220, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    36. Mansur, Alfan, 2015. "Identifying Shocks on the Economic Fluctuations in Indonesia and US: The Role of Oil Price Shocks in a Structural Vector Autoregression Model," MPRA Paper 94018, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Jun 2015.
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    39. Warsono Warsono & Edwin Russels & Wamiliana Wamiliana & Widiarti Widiarti & Mustofa Usman, 2019. "Vector Autoregressive with Exogenous Variable Model and its Application in Modeling and Forecasting Energy Data: Case Study of PTBA and HRUM Energy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(2), pages 390-398.
    40. Gouriéroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2017. "Statistical inference for independent component analysis: Application to structural VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 111-126.
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    43. Bejan, Vladimir & Parkin, William S., 2015. "Examining the effect of repressive and conciliatory government actions on terrorism activity in Israel," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 55-58.
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    45. Kohonen, Anssi, 2012. "On detection of volatility spillovers in simultaneously open stock markets," MPRA Paper 37504, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    47. Güntner, Jochen H.F., 2014. "How do oil producers respond to oil demand shocks?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-13.
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    50. Cao, A.N.Q. & Grosche, S.-C., 2018. "Financial and Commodity-specific expectations in soybean futures markets," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277538, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
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    53. Claudio Morana, 2013. "Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Heteroskedastic Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks: New Insights on the US OIS SPreads Term Structure," Working Papers 233, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2013.
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    56. Istiak, Khandokar & Serletis, Apostolos, 2020. "Risk, uncertainty, and leverage," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 257-273.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K, 2013. "Quantifying the Speculative Component in the Real Price of Oil: The Role of Global Oil Inventories," CEPR Discussion Papers 9297, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2013. "Forecasting Crude Oil Price Movements with Oil-Sensitive Stocks," MPRA Paper 49240, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kilian, Lutz & Fattouh, Bassam & Mahadeva, Lavan, 2012. "The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Mehmet Balcilar & NICO KATZKE & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Do Precious Metal Prices Help in Forecasting South African Inflation?," Working Papers 15-05, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    5. Mr. Ron Alquist & Mr. Olivier Coibion, 2013. "The Comovement in Commodity Prices: Sources and Implications," IMF Working Papers 2013/140, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Richard G. Newell & Brian C. Prest, 2019. "The Unconventional Oil Supply Boom: Aggregate Price Response from Microdata," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(3), pages 1-30, May.
    7. Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2013. "Futures trading and the excess comovement of commodity prices," Working Papers 2013-19, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    8. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Mozhgan Raeisian Parvari, 2014. "Iranian-Oil-Free Zone and International Oil Prices," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201427, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    9. Ercio Muñoz & Miguel Ricaurte & Mariel Siravegna, 2012. "Combinación de Proyecciones para el Precio del Petróleo: Aplicación y Evaluación de Metodologías," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 660, Central Bank of Chile.
    10. Boubakri, Salem & Guillaumin, Cyriac & Silanine, Alexandre, 2019. "Non-linear relationship between real commodity price volatility and real effective exchange rate: The case of commodity-exporting countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 212-228.
    11. Kilian, Lutz & Baumeister, Christiane, 2012. "What Central Bankers Need to Know about Forecasting Oil Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 9118, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Ding Du & Ronald J Gunderson & Xiaobing Zhao, 2016. "Investor sentiment and oil prices," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 17(2), pages 73-88, March.
    13. Cristiana Belu Manescu & Ine Van Robays, 2016. "Forecasting the Brent Oil Price: Addressing Time-Variation in Forecast Performance," CESifo Working Paper Series 6242, CESifo.
    14. Domenico Ferraro & Ken Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Can oil prices forecast exchange rates?," Economics Working Papers 1461, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2015.
    15. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2013. "Are product spreads useful for forecasting? An empirical evaluation of the Verleger hypothesis," CFS Working Paper Series 2013/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    16. Marco J. Lombardi & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2012. "Oil price density forecasts: exploring the linkages with stock markets," Working Paper 2012/24, Norges Bank.
    17. Kilian, Lutz & Alquist, Ron & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 8388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Kilian, Lutz & Baumeister, Christiane & Lee, Thomas K, 2014. "Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10075, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2011. "Oil and US GDP: A Real-Time out-of Sample Examination," Working Papers No 2/2011, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    20. Morana, Claudio, 2012. "Oil Price Dynamics, Macro-Finance Interactions and the Role of Financial Speculation," Energy: Resources and Markets 121723, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    21. C. A. Tapia Cortez & J. Coulton & C. Sammut & S. Saydam, 2018. "Determining the chaotic behaviour of copper prices in the long-term using annual price data," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(1), pages 1-13, December.
    22. Blazsek, Szabolcs & Licht, Adrian, 2019. "Markov-switching score-driven multivariate models: outlier-robust measurement of the relationships between world crude oil production and US industrial production," UC3M Working papers. Economics 29030, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    23. Helmut Luetkepohl, 2011. "Vector Autoregressive Models," Economics Working Papers ECO2011/30, European University Institute.
    24. Ferraro, Domenico & Rogoff, Kenneth & Rossi, Barbara, 2015. "Can oil prices forecast exchange rates? An empirical analysis of the relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 116-141.
    25. Lombardi, Marco J. & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "On the correlation between commodity and equity returns: Implications for portfolio allocation," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 45-57.
    26. Hunt Allcott & Nathan Wozny, 2014. "Gasoline Prices, Fuel Economy, and the Energy Paradox," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(5), pages 779-795, December.
    27. Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre & Kilian, Lutz, 2015. "Do high-frequency financial data help forecast oil prices? The MIDAS touch at work," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 238-252.
    28. Hammami Algia & Bouri Abdelfatteh, 2016. "The Volatility of Oil Prices: What Factors?," Bulletin of Energy Economics (BEE), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 4(1), pages 98-110, March.
    29. Ron Alquist & Justin-Damien Guénette, 2013. "A Blessing in Disguise: The Implications of High Global Oil Prices for the North American Market," Staff Working Papers 13-23, Bank of Canada.
    30. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2012. "Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios," Staff Working Papers 12-1, Bank of Canada.
    31. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2013. "Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach," Staff Working Papers 13-28, Bank of Canada.
    32. Xiong, Tao & Bao, Yukun & Hu, Zhongyi, 2013. "Beyond one-step-ahead forecasting: Evaluation of alternative multi-step-ahead forecasting models for crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 405-415.
    33. Antonia Lòpez-Villavicencio & Marc Pourroy, 2019. "Inflation target and (a)symmetries in the oil price pass-through to inflation," Post-Print hal-02082415, HAL.
    34. Marc Joëts, 2013. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Regret, and Uncertainty: The Role of Speculation in Energy Price Dynamics," Working Papers 2013.32, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    35. Julien Chevallier & Benoît Sévi, 2014. "A fear index to predict oil futures returns," Post-Print hal-01463111, HAL.
    36. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2013. "Effects of Speculation and Interest Rates in a "Carry Trade" Model of Commodity Prices," NBER Working Papers 19463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Martínez-Cañete, Ana R. & Márquez-de-la-Cruz, Elena & Pérez-Soba, Inés, 2022. "Non-linear cointegration between oil and stock prices: The role of interest rates," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    38. Christopher F Baum & Paola Zerilli, 2014. "Jumps and stochastic volatility in crude oil futures prices using conditional moments of integrated volatility," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 860, Boston College Department of Economics.
    39. Baghestani, Hamid, 2015. "Predicting gasoline prices using Michigan survey data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 27-32.
    40. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2015. "Does the euro area macroeconomy affect global commodity prices? Evidence from a SVAR approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 485-503.
    41. Ron Alquist & Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2014. "What Does the Convenience Yield Curve Tell Us about the Crude Oil Market?," Staff Working Papers 14-42, Bank of Canada.
    42. Christopher L. Foote & Jane Sneddon Little, 2011. "Oil and the macroeconomy in a changing world: a conference summary," Public Policy Discussion Paper 11-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    43. Güntner, Jochen H. F., 2014. "How Do International Stock Markets Respond To Oil Demand And Supply Shocks?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(8), pages 1657-1682, December.
    44. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2012. "Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries," CEPR Discussion Papers 8980, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    45. Ron Alquist & Saroj Bhattarai & Olivier Coibion, 2014. "Commodity-Price Comovement and Global Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 20003, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    46. Kim, Myung Suk, 2018. "Impacts of supply and demand factors on declining oil prices," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 1059-1065.
    47. Arora, Vipin & Tanner, Matthew, 2013. "Do oil prices respond to real interest rates?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 546-555.
    48. Florackis, Chris & Giorgioni, Gianluigi & Kostakis, Alexandros & Milas, Costas, 2014. "On stock market illiquidity and real-time GDP growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 210-229.
    49. Samuel Wills, 2015. "Leave the Volatility Fund Alone: Principles for Managing Oil Wealth," OxCarre Working Papers 154, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    50. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2015. "Oil-Price Density Forecasts of U.S. GDP," Working Papers No 10/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    51. Kilian, Lutz, 2011. "Structural Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8515, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    52. Tapia, Carlos & Coulton, Jeff & Saydam, Serkan, 2020. "Using entropy to assess dynamic behaviour of long-term copper price," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    53. Bing Xu, 2015. "Oil prices and UK industry-level stock returns," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(25), pages 2608-2627, May.
    54. Elena CARA & Olga GANCEARUC, 2015. "Forecast Of Brent Oil Price - A Deliberation On Use Of Futures Contracts Or/And Of The Econometric Models Forecasts," Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 4(1), pages 18-28, JULY.

  59. Kilian, Lutz & Murphy, Daniel, 2010. "The Role of Inventories and Speculative Trading in the Global Market for Crude Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 7753, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Kyritsis, Evangelos & Serletis, Apostolos, 2017. "The Zero Lower Bound and Market Spillovers: Evidence from the G7 and Norway," Discussion Papers 2017/7, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    2. Martin Feldkircher & Pierre L. Siklos, 2018. "Global inflation dynamics and inflation expectations," CAMA Working Papers 2018-60, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Stephen Snudden, 2024. "Don’t Ruin the Surprise: Temporal Aggregation Bias in Structural Innovations," LCERPA Working Papers jc0149, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised Nov 2024.
    4. Bataa, Erdenebat & Park, Cheolbeom, 2017. "Is the recent low oil price attributable to the shale revolution?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 72-82.
    5. Ing-Haw Cheng & Wei Xiong, 2014. "Financialization of Commodity Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 419-441, December.
    6. Coglianese, John & Davis, Lucas W. & Kilian, Lutz & Stock, James H., 2015. "Anticipation, tax avoidance, and the price elasticity of gasoline demand," CFS Working Paper Series 503, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    7. Scheitrum, Daniel Paul & Carter, Colin A. & Jaffe, Amy Myers, 2017. "Testing substitution between private and public storage in the U.S. oil market: A study on the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 483-493.
    8. Delle Chiaie, Simona & Ferrara, Laurent & Giannone, Domenico, 2018. "Common factors of commodity prices," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 51.
    9. Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mork, Jente Esther & Van Robays, Ine, 2024. "Gas price shocks and euro area inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    10. Peersman, Gert & Rüth, Sebastian K. & Van der Veken, Wouter, 2019. "The interplay between oil and food commodity prices: Has It changed over time?," Working Papers 0665, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    11. Deren Unalmis & Ibrahim Unalmis & Ms. Filiz D Unsal, 2012. "On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks: The Role of Storage," IMF Working Papers 2012/270, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2013. "Forecasting Crude Oil Price Movements with Oil-Sensitive Stocks," MPRA Paper 49240, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Valérie Mignon & Yifei Cai & Jamel Saadaoui, 2022. "Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US-China tensions on the oil market," Working Papers hal-04159797, HAL.
    14. Daniele Valenti & Matteo Manera & Alessandro Sbuelz, 2018. "Interpreting the Oil Risk Premium: do Oil Price Shocks Matter?," Working Papers 2018.03, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    15. Bernabe Lopez-Martin & Julio Leal & Andre Martinez Fritscher, 2017. "Commodity price risk management and fiscal policy in a sovereign default model," BIS Working Papers 620, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Singh, Jitendra & Ahmad, Wasim & Mishra, Anil, 2019. "Coherence, connectedness and dynamic hedging effectiveness between emerging markets equities and commodity index funds," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 441-460.
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    11. Jiawen Luo & Shengjie Fu & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta, 2024. "Climate Risks and Forecastability of US Inflation: Evidence from Dynamic Quantile Model Averaging," Working Papers 202420, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
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    1. Rafiq, Shudhasattwa & Sgro, Pasquale & Apergis, Nicholas, 2016. "Asymmetric oil shocks and external balances of major oil exporting and importing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 42-50.
    2. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Ayaz Ahmed, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects of Global Food and Oil Price Shocks to the Pakistan Economy: A Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 491-511.
    3. Abubakar, Attahir Babaji & Muhammad, Mansur & Mensah, Samuel, 2023. "Response of fiscal efforts to oil price dynamics," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    4. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Ibrahim Fatnassi, 2014. "Oil price and macroeconomy in India – An evolutionary cospectral coherence approach," Working Papers 2014-68, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    5. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2017. "The nexus between the oil price and its volatility in a stochastic volatility in mean model with time-varying parameters," Working Papers 15-33, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    6. Moawad Ahmed, Sayed, 2016. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Economic Growth and Development in the MENA countries," MPRA Paper 89073, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Mathilde Lebrand & Garima Vasishtha & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2023. "Energy Price Shocks and Current Account Balances: Evidence from Emerging Market and Developing Economies," Working Papers 2305, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    8. Abdullah Sultan Al Shammre & Benaissa Chidmi, 2023. "Oil Price Forecasting Using FRED Data: A Comparison between Some Alternative Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-24, May.
    9. Refai, Hisham Al & Zeitun, Rami & Eissa, Mohamed Abdel-Aziz, 2022. "Impact of global health crisis and oil price shocks on stock markets in the GCC," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    10. Blazsek, Szabolcs & Licht, Adrian, 2019. "Markov-switching score-driven multivariate models: outlier-robust measurement of the relationships between world crude oil production and US industrial production," UC3M Working papers. Economics 29030, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    11. Hodula Martin & Vahalík Bohdan, 2017. "Effects of oil shocks on EMU exports: technological level differences," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 17(4), pages 399-423, December.
    12. Sajjad Barkordari & maryam fattahi, 2017. "An Equilibrium Aggregate Demand And Supply Model To Examine The Dynamic Effect Of Oil Price Shocks On Output And Inflation In Iran As An Oil Exporting Country," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(3), pages 839-846.
    13. Pham T. T. Trinh & Bui T. T. My, 2023. "The impact of world oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables in Vietnam: the transmission through domestic oil price," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 37(1), pages 67-87, May.
    14. Lin, Shiwei & Wang, Yanan & Niu, Xiaojian & Dördüncü, Hazar, 2022. "Revisiting volatility in global natural resources commodities? Evidence from global data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    15. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2018. "The volatility effect on precious metals prices in a stochastic volatility in mean model with time-varying parameters," Working Papers 15-34, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    16. Raheem, Ibrahim D., 2017. "Asymmetry and break effects of oil price -macroeconomic fundamentals dynamics: The trade effect channel," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 12-25.
    17. Guo, Yangli & Ma, Feng & Li, Haibo & Lai, Xiaodong, 2022. "Oil price volatility predictability based on global economic conditions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    18. Angeliki Papana & Catherine Kyrtsou & Dimitris Kugiumtzis & Cees Diks, 2017. "Assessment of resampling methods for causality testing: A note on the US inflation behavior," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(7), pages 1-20, July.
    19. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Elie Bouri & Qiang Ji, 2022. "Mixed‐frequency forecasting of crude oil volatility based on the information content of global economic conditions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 134-157, January.
    20. Mathew Ekundayo Rotimi & Harold Ngalawa, 2017. "Oil Price Shocks and Economic Performance in Africa’s Oil Exporting Countries," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 13(5), pages 169-188, OCTOBER.
    21. Le, Thai-Ha & Chang, Youngho, 2015. "Effects of oil price shocks on the stock market performance: Do nature of shocks and economies matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 261-274.
    22. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2019. "The nexus between the oil price and its volatility risk in a stochastic volatility in the mean model with time-varying parameters," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 572-584.
    23. Ioannis Dokas & Georgios Oikonomou & Minas Panagiotidis & Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2023. "Macroeconomic and Uncertainty Shocks’ Effects on Energy Prices: A Comprehensive Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-35, February.
    24. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Mohamed Arouri & Frédéric Teulon, 2014. "Oil prices and trade balance: A frequency domain analysis for India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(2), pages 663-680.
    25. Jorge Toro & Aarón Garavito & David Camilo López & Enrique Montes, 2015. "El choque petrolero y sus implicaciones en la economía colombiana," Borradores de Economia 906, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    26. Mohamed Albaity & Hasan Mustafa, 2018. "International and Macroeconomic Determinants of Oil Price: Evidence from Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(1), pages 69-81.
    27. Ratti, Ronald A. & Seol, Youn & Yoon, Kyung Hwan, 2011. "Relative energy price and investment by European firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 721-731, September.
    28. Jiao, Jing-Wen & Yin, Jun-Ping & Xu, Ping-Feng & Zhang, Juan & Liu, Yuan, 2023. "Transmission mechanisms of geopolitical risks to the crude oil market——A pioneering two-stage geopolitical risk analysis approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    29. Tarek Bouazizi & Mongi Lassoued & Zouhaier Hadhek, 2021. "Oil Price Volatility Models during Coronavirus Crisis: Testing with Appropriate Models Using Further Univariate GARCH and Monte Carlo Simulation Models," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 281-292.
    30. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein, 2021. "The impact of extreme structural oil-price shocks on clean energy and oil stocks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    31. Xu, Bing & Ouenniche, Jamal, 2012. "A data envelopment analysis-based framework for the relative performance evaluation of competing crude oil prices' volatility forecasting models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 576-583.
    32. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2019. "The volatility effect on precious metals price returns in a stochastic volatility in mean model with time-varying parameters," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
    33. Wang, Yanlong & Li, Haixia & Altuntaş, Mehmet, 2022. "Volatility in natural resources commodity prices: Evaluating volatility in oil and gas rents," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    34. Ronald A. Ratti & M. Zahid Hasan, 2013. "Oil Price Shocks and Volatility in Australian Stock Returns," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 89, pages 67-83, June.
    35. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Muhammad Iftikhar Ul Husnain & Qaisar Abbas & Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah, 2019. "Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on Asian economies: a nonlinear analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1319-1350, October.
    36. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo, 2022. "The COVID-19 storm and the energy sector: The impact and role of uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    37. Brown, Maxwell & Siddiqui, Sauleh & Avraam, Charalampos & Bistline, John & Decarolis, Joseph & Eshraghi, Hadi & Giarola, Sara & Hansen, Matthew & Johnston, Peter & Khanal, Saroj & Molar-Cruz, Anahi, 2021. "North American energy system responses to natural gas price shocks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    38. Christopher N. Ekong & Ekpeno L. Effiong, 2015. "Oil Price Shocks and Nigeria’s Macroeconomy: Disentangling the Dynamics of Crude Oil Market Shocks," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 16(6), pages 920-935, December.
    39. Gong, Xu & Lin, Boqiang, 2018. "Time-varying effects of oil supply and demand shocks on China's macro-economy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 424-437.
    40. Magnus Blomkvist & Nebojsa Dimic & Milos Vulanovic, 2023. "Oil Price Uncertainty and IPOs," The Energy Journal, , vol. 44(6), pages 21-42, November.
    41. Ni, Xiewen & Wang, Zanxin & Akbar, Ahsan & Ali, Sher, 2022. "Measuring natural resources rents volatility: Evidence from EGARCH and TGARCH for global data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    42. Le, Thai-Ha & Le, Anh Tu & Le, Ha-Chi, 2021. "The historic oil price fluctuation during the Covid-19 pandemic: What are the causes?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    43. Chuku, Chuku & Effiong, Ekpeno & Sam, Ndifreke, 2010. "Oil price distortions and their short- and long-run impacts on the Nigerian economy," MPRA Paper 24434, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    44. Nizar, Muhammad Afdi, 2012. "Dampak Fluktuasi Harga Minyak Dunia Terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia [The Impact of World Oil Prices Fluctuation on Indonesia’s Economy]," MPRA Paper 65601, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    45. Muhammad Faraz Riaz & Maqbool Hussain Sial & Samia Nasreen, 2016. "Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Manufacturing Production of Pakistan," Bulletin of Energy Economics (BEE), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 4(1), pages 23-34, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Patricks Ogiji & Tersoo Shimonkabir Shitile & Nuruddeen Usman, 2022. "Estimating asymmetries in monetary policy reaction function: an oil price augmented Taylor type rule for Nigeria under unconventional regime," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1655-1672, August.
    2. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2019. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates," Working Papers 1914, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Claudio Morana, 2016. "Macroeconomic and Financial Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Evidence for the Euro Area," CeRP Working Papers 158, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
    4. Kilian, Lutz & Lewis, Logan, 2009. "Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7594, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2011. "The Role of Time-Varying Price Elasticities in Accounting for Volatility Changes in the Crude Oil Market," Staff Working Papers 11-28, Bank of Canada.
    6. Mohammed, Mikidadu, 2018. "Do Import Tariffs Generate Stagflationary Tendencies?," EconStor Preprints 201013, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    7. Melolinna, Marko, 2012. "Macroeconomic shocks in an oil market var," Working Paper Series 1432, European Central Bank.
    8. Claudio Morana, 2012. "The Oil price-Macroeconomy Relationship since the Mid- 1980s: A global perspective," Working Papers 2012.28, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    9. Nasser Al-Mawali & Haslifah Mohamad Hasim & Khalil Al-Busaidi, 2016. "Modeling the Impact of the Oil Sector on the Economy of Sultanate of Oman," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 120-127.
    10. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2011. "Oil and US GDP: A Real-Time out-of Sample Examination," Working Papers No 2/2011, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    11. Morana, Claudio, 2012. "Oil Price Dynamics, Macro-Finance Interactions and the Role of Financial Speculation," Energy: Resources and Markets 121723, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    12. Liu, Qing & Shi, Kang & Wu, Zhouheng & Xu, Juanyi, 2014. "Oil price stabilization and global welfare," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 246-260.
    13. Carey W. King, 2015. "Comparing World Economic and Net Energy Metrics, Part 3: Macroeconomic Historical and Future Perspectives," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-24, November.
    14. Roseline Nyakerario Misati & Esman Morekwa Nyamongo & Isaac Mwangi, 2013. "Commodity price shocks and inflation in a net oil-importing economy," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 37(2), pages 125-148, June.
    15. Papież, Monika & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2015. "Dynamic steam coal market integration: Evidence from rolling cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 510-520.
    16. Berthold, Norbert & Gründler, Klaus, 2012. "Stagflation in the world economy: A revival?," Discussion Paper Series 117, Julius Maximilian University of Würzburg, Chair of Economic Order and Social Policy.
    17. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2015. "Does the euro area macroeconomy affect global commodity prices? Evidence from a SVAR approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 485-503.
    18. Farrukh Suvankulov, 2016. "Crude Oil Prices and Fixed-Asset Cash Spending in the Oil and Gas Industry: Findings from VAR Models," Staff Analytical Notes 16-8, Bank of Canada.
    19. Michael Pedersen, 2011. "Propagation of Shocks to Food and Energy Prices: an International Comparison," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 648, Central Bank of Chile.
    20. Mohammed, Mikidadu, 2018. "Do import tariffs generate stagflationary tendencies?," EconStor Preprints 181674, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, revised 2018.
    21. Surajit Das & Sukanya Bose & N. R. Bhanumurthy, 2014. "Oil Price Shock, Pass-Through Policy and its Impact on India," India Studies in Business and Economics, in: Ratan Khasnabis & Indrani Chakraborty (ed.), Market, Regulations and Finance, edition 127, chapter 13, pages 231-253, Springer.
    22. Papież, Monika & Śmiech, Sławomir & Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2014. "The impact of the Euro area macroeconomy on energy and non-energy global commodity prices," MPRA Paper 56663, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Lamazoshvili Beka, 2014. "Effects of Oil Shocks on Oil-Importing Developing Economies: The Case of Georgia and Armenia," EERC Working Paper Series 14/06e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    24. Mthuli Ncube & Daniel Zerfu Gurara & Dawit B. Tessema, 2014. "Working Paper 205 - Volatility and Co-movement in Commodity Prices- New Evidence," Working Paper Series 2135, African Development Bank.
    25. Michael Pedersen, 2015. "Propagation of Shocks to Food and Energy Prices: A Cross-Country Analysis," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(4), pages 272-289, August.
    26. Uliha, Gábor, 2016. "Az olajár gyengülő makrogazdasági hatásai. Két versengő elmélet szintézise [Weakening macroeconomic effects of the oil price. A synthesis of two competing theories]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 787-818.
    27. Robert Anderton & Alessandro Galesi & Marco Lombardi & Filippo di Mauro, 2010. "Key Elements of Global Inflation," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    28. Gao, Xin & Li, Bingxin & Liu, Rui, 2023. "The relative pricing of WTI and Brent crude oil futures: Expectations or risk premia?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    29. Martin Bodenstein & Luca Guerrieri & Lutz Kilian, 2012. "Monetary Policy Responses to Oil Price Fluctuations," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(4), pages 470-504, December.
    30. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2015. "Oil-Price Density Forecasts of U.S. GDP," Working Papers No 10/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    31. Okunoye, Ismaila & Hammed, Sabuur, 2020. "Oil Price Shock and Fiscal-Monetary Policy Variables in Nigeria: A Structural VAR Approach," MPRA Paper 104145, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Sep 2020.
    32. Herwartz, Helmut & Rohloff, Hannes & Wang, Shu, 2022. "Proxy SVAR identification of monetary policy shocks - Monte Carlo evidence and insights for the US," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    33. Carey W. King & John P. Maxwell & Alyssa Donovan, 2015. "Comparing World Economic and Net Energy Metrics, Part 1: Single Technology and Commodity Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-26, November.
    34. Kilian, Lutz, 2010. "Oil price volatility: Origins and effects," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2010-02, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    35. Yushi Xu & Baifan Chen & Jionghao Huang & Qingsha Hu & Shuning Kong, 2024. "Time–frequency connectedness between heterogeneous oil price shocks and inflation: a comparative analysis of developed and emerging economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 1-42, December.

  63. Kilian, Lutz & Lewis, Logan, 2009. "Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7594, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Martin Feldkircher & Pierre L. Siklos, 2018. "Global inflation dynamics and inflation expectations," CAMA Working Papers 2018-60, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2013. "Forecasting Crude Oil Price Movements with Oil-Sensitive Stocks," MPRA Paper 49240, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Mehmet Ivrendi & Douglas K. Pearce, 2014. "Asset prices and expected monetary policy: evidence from daily data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(9), pages 985-995, March.
    4. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2019. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates," Working Papers 1914, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. Rüdiger Bachmann & Sebastian K. Rüth, 2020. "Systematic Monetary Policy And The Macroeconomic Effects Of Shifts In Residential Loan‐To‐Value Ratios," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(2), pages 503-530, May.
    6. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2021. "The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23," CESifo Working Paper Series 9455, CESifo.
    7. Bobeica, Elena & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2021. "The changing link between labor cost and price inflation in the United States," Working Paper Series 2583, European Central Bank.
    8. Rodrigo da Silva Souza & Leonardo Bornacki Mattos, 2022. "Oil price shocks and global liquidity: macroeconomic effects on the Brazilian real," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 761-781, October.
    9. Yau, Ruey & Chen, Guan-Han, 2021. "Assessing energy subsidy policies in a structural macroeconomic model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    10. Diegel, Max & Nautz, Dieter, 2020. "The role of long-term inflation expectations for the transmission of monetary policy shocks," Discussion Papers 2020/19, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    11. Tule, Moses K. & Ndako, Umar B. & Onipede, Samuel F., 2017. "Oil price shocks and volatility spillovers in the Nigerian sovereign bond market," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 57-65.
    12. Cristina Conflitti and Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Oil Price Pass-through into Core Inflation," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
    13. Gao, Liping & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Saba, Richard, 2014. "How Do Oil Price Shocks Affect Consumer Prices?," MPRA Paper 57259, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Martin Geiger & Johann Scharler, 2018. "How do consumers interpret the macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations? Evidence from U.S. survey data," Working Papers 2018-13, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
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    1. Frank Schorfheide, 2011. "Estimation and evaluation of DSGE models: progress and challenges," Working Papers 11-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Oscar Jorda & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "Path Forecast Evaluation," Working Papers 131, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
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    6. Zhongjun Qu, 2011. "Inference and Speci?cation Testing in DSGE Models with Possible Weak Identification," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2011-058, Boston University - Department of Economics.

  65. Kilian, Lutz & Davis, Lucas W, 2009. "Estimating the Effect of a Gasoline Tax on Carbon Emissions," CEPR Discussion Papers 7161, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    1. Jean-Thomas Bernard & Maral Kichian, 2017. "Carbon Tax Saliency: The Case of B.C. Diesel Demand," Working Papers 1718E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
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    3. Coglianese, John & Davis, Lucas W. & Kilian, Lutz & Stock, James H., 2015. "Anticipation, tax avoidance, and the price elasticity of gasoline demand," CFS Working Paper Series 503, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
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    5. Martin, Ralf & Wagner, Ulrich J. & de Preux, Laure B., 2009. "The impacts of climate change levy on business: evidence from microdata," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 28592, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Lin Zhao, 2023. "The impact of China's Differential Electricity Pricing policy on fossil fuel consumption," International Studies of Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(1), pages 97-119, March.
    7. Kilian, Lutz & Fattouh, Bassam & Mahadeva, Lavan, 2012. "The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Coletti, Donald & Lalonde, René & Masson, Paul & Muir, Dirk & Snudden, Stephen, 2021. "Commodities and monetary policy: Implications for inflation and price level targeting," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 982-999.
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    10. Odran Bonnet & Étienne Fize & Tristan Loisel & Lionel Wilner, 2024. "Compensating against fuel price inflation: Price subsidies or transfers?," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-04799412, HAL.
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    16. Onyeneke , Robert Ugochukwu & Emenekwe, Chukwuemeka Chinonso & Amadi, Mark Umunna & Munonye, Jane Onuabuchi & Njoku, Chukwudi Loveday & Izuogu, Chibuzo Uzoma, 2020. "Demand Analysis of Rice in Nigeria: Application of Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System Model," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development, Asian Economic and Social Society (AESS), vol. 10(01), January.
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    23. Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Kichian, Maral, 2019. "The long and short run effects of British Columbia's carbon tax on diesel demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 380-389.
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    28. Tsvetan Tsvetanov, 2022. "Tax Holidays and the Heterogeneous Pass-Through of Gasoline Taxes," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202219, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
    29. Agnolucci,Paolo & Fischer,Carolyn & Heine,Dirk & Montes De Oca Leon,Mariza & Pryor,Joseph Dixon Callisto & Hallegatte,Stephane, 2023. "Measuring Total Carbon Pricing," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10486, The World Bank.
    30. Julian Dieler & Jana Lippelt, 2012. "Kurz zum Klima: Umweltsteuern – Steuern für die Umwelt oder für die Staatskasse?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(13), pages 80-82, July.
    31. Julian Dieler, 2016. "Effectiveness of Climate Policies: Empirical Methods and Evidence," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 68, May.
    32. Givord, Pauline & Grislain-Letrémy, Céline & Naegele, Helene, 2018. "How do fuel taxes impact new car purchases? An evaluation using French consumer-level data," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 74, pages 76-96.
    33. Li, Shanjun & Linn, Joshua & Muehlegger, Erich, 2012. "Gasoline Taxes and Consumer Behavior," Working Paper Series rwp12-006, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
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    38. Fu, Shihe & Gu, Yizhen, 2014. "Highway toll and air pollution: evidence from Chinese cities," MPRA Paper 59619, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    40. Gonçalves, Sílvia & Herrera, Ana María & Kilian, Lutz & Pesavento, Elena, 2021. "Impulse response analysis for structural dynamic models with nonlinear regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(1), pages 107-130.
    41. Odran Bonnet & Étienne Fize & Tristan Loisel & Lionel Wilner, 2024. "Compensation against Fuel Inflation: Temporary Tax Rebates or Transfers?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10917, CESifo.
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    46. Michael Bates & Seolah Kim, 2019. "Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand in Correlated Random Coefficient Models with Endogeneity," Working Papers 202021, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2020.
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    49. Hunt Allcott & Sendhil Mullainathan & Dmitry Taubinsky, 2012. "Energy Policy with Externalities and Internalities," NBER Working Papers 17977, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    94. Philipp Rode & Alexandra Gomes & Muhammad Adeel & Fizzah Sajjad & Andreas Koch & Syed Monjur Murshed, 2020. "Between Abundance and Constraints: The Natural Resource Equation of Asia’s Diverging, Higher-Income City Models," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-33, October.
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    98. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2012. "Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries," CEPR Discussion Papers 8980, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    104. Dede Long & David Lewis & Christian Langpap, 2021. "Negative Traffic Externalities and Infant Health: The Role of Income Heterogeneity and Residential Sorting," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 80(3), pages 637-674, November.
    105. Mattauch, Linus & van den Bijgaart, Inge & Klenert, David & Sulikova, Simona, 2020. "Optimal fuel taxation with suboptimal health choices," INET Oxford Working Papers 2020-22, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    106. William G. Gale & Samuel Brown, 2013. "Tax Reform for Growth, Equity, and Revenue," Public Finance Review, , vol. 41(6), pages 721-754, November.
    107. Shou-Yung Yin & Chu-An Liu & Chang-Ching Lin, 2016. "Focused Information Criterion and Model Averaging for Large Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 16-A016, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
    108. Nicholas Rivers & Brandon Schaufele, 2012. "Carbon Tax Salience and Gasoline Demand," Working Papers 1211E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    109. Li Li & Weimin Li, 2022. "The Promoting Effect of Green Technology Innovations on Sustainable Supply Chain Development: Evidence from China’s Transport Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-16, April.
    110. Wagner, Katherine, 2016. "Environmental preferences and consumer behavior," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 1-4.
    111. Cho, Sung Ju & McCarl, Bruce A. & Wu, Ximing, 2015. "Climate Change Adaptation via U.S. Land Use Transitions: A Spatial Econometric Analysis," 2015 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2015, Atlanta, Georgia 196684, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    112. Houde, Sebastien & Aldy, Joseph E., 2017. "The Efficiency Consequences of Heterogeneous Behavioral Responses to Energy Fiscal Policies," RFF Working Paper Series 17-24, Resources for the Future.
    113. Josse Delfgaauw & Otto Swank, 2023. "The Gasoline Climate Trap," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-025/VII, Tinbergen Institute.
    114. Silvia Tiezzi & Stefano F. Verde, 2019. "The signaling effect of gasoline taxes and its distributional implications," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 17(2), pages 145-169, June.
    115. Bilgin, Doga & Ellwanger, Reinhard, 2024. "A simple model of global fuel consumption," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    116. Yizao Liu, 2010. "Gasoline Prices, Fuel Economy Efficiency And Automobile Replacement Dynamics," Working Papers 02, University of Connecticut, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Charles J. Zwick Center for Food and Resource Policy.
    117. John R. Scott & Ricardo Massa & Ana Cecilia Parada, 2024. "Distributive Impact of Green Taxes in Mexico," Working Paper d237a40f-8742-49a5-b30a-0, Agence française de développement.
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    119. Chuang, Shih-Hsien, 2024. "Behavioral optimization of US air travel taxes," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
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    121. Kilian, Lutz, 2011. "Structural Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8515, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ronayne, David, 2011. "Which Impulse Response Function?," Economic Research Papers 270753, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    2. Ioanna Bardaka & Ioannis Bournakis & Georgia Kaplanoglou, 2018. "Total factor productivity (TFP) and fiscal consolidation: how harmful is austerity?," Working Papers 255, Bank of Greece.
    3. Helmut Lütkepohl & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2013. "Comparison of Methods for Constructing Joint Confidence Bands for Impulse Response Functions," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201325, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    4. Javier J. Perez & Ana Lamo & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2015. "Does Slack Influence Public and Private Labor Market," EcoMod2015 8792, EcoMod.
    5. Paul Cashin & Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2014. "Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1418, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis & Theologos Dergiades, 2021. "Does it Matter where you Search? Twitter versus Traditional News Media," Discussion Paper Series 2021_04, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Feb 2021.
    7. Lamo, Ana & Pérez, Javier J. & Moral-Benito, Enrique, 2016. "Does slack influence public and private labor market interactions?," Working Paper Series 1890, European Central Bank.
    8. Stefano Puddu, 2013. "Real Sector and Banking System: Real and Feedback Effects. A Non-Linear VAR Approach," IRENE Working Papers 13-01, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    9. Essotanam Mamba & Afi Balaki, 2022. "Effects of trade policies on external trade performances of ECOWAS countries (1996–2017)†," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(3), pages 535-566, July.
    10. Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis & Theologos Dergiades, 2018. "Twitter versus Traditional News Media: Evidence for the Sovereign Bond Markets," Working Paper series 18-42, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    11. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Lee, Chingnun & Wang, Tzu-Wei, 2011. "A re-examination on dissecting the purchasing power parity puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 572-586, April.

  67. Kilian, Lutz & Murphy, Daniel, 2009. "Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding the Dynamics of Oil Market VAR Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 7471, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K, 2013. "Quantifying the Speculative Component in the Real Price of Oil: The Role of Global Oil Inventories," CEPR Discussion Papers 9297, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Dieppe, Alistair & Georgiadis, Georgios & Ricci, Martino & Van Robays, Ine & van Roye, Björn, 2018. "ECB-Global: Introducing the ECB's global macroeconomic model for spillover analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 78-98.
    3. Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mork, Jente Esther & Van Robays, Ine, 2024. "Gas price shocks and euro area inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    4. Romanos Priftis & Srec̆ko Zimic, 2021. "Sources of Borrowing and Fiscal Multipliers [Emerging market business cycles: the cycle is the trend]," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(633), pages 498-519.
    5. Deren Unalmis & Ibrahim Unalmis & Ms. Filiz D Unsal, 2012. "On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks: The Role of Storage," IMF Working Papers 2012/270, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Ha, Jongrim & Kose, M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2021. "Inflation During the Pandemic: What Happened? What is Next?," MPRA Paper 108677, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2013. "Forecasting Crude Oil Price Movements with Oil-Sensitive Stocks," MPRA Paper 49240, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2019. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates," Working Papers 1914, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    9. Dominik Bertsche & Robin Braun, 2018. "Identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions by Stochastic Volatility," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2018-03, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    10. Kilian, Lutz & Fattouh, Bassam & Mahadeva, Lavan, 2012. "The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde Christiane Bjørnland & Jamie L. Cross, 2020. "Inflation expectations and the pass-through of oil prices," Working Papers No 03/2020, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    12. Lukas Hoesch & Adam Lee & Geert Mesters, 2022. "Robust inference for non-Gaussian SVAR models," Economics Working Papers 1847, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    13. Rodrigo da Silva Souza & Leonardo Bornacki Mattos, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks on an emerging market economy," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 803-824, April.
    14. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2013. "Is The Phillips Curve Alive and Well After All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," NBER Chapters, in: Lessons from the Financial Crisis for Monetary Policy, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Kilian, Lutz & Inoue, Atsushi, 2011. "Inference on Impulse Response Functions in Structural VAR Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 8419, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Konstantinos Chisiridis & Kostas Mouratidis & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2018. "The North-South Divide, the Euro and the World," Working Papers 2018015, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    17. Thomas S. Gundersen, 2020. "The Impact of U.S. Supply Shocks on the Global Oil Price," The Energy Journal, , vol. 41(1), pages 151-174, January.
    18. Cross, Jamie & Nguyen, Bao H., 2017. "The relationship between global oil price shocks and China's output: A time-varying analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 79-91.
    19. Yao, Wei & Alexiou, Constantinos, 2022. "Exploring the transmission mechanism of speculative and inventory arbitrage activity to commodity price volatility. Novel evidence for the US economy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    20. Abhay Abhyankar, Bing Xu, and Jiayue Wang, 2013. "Oil Price Shocks and the Stock Market: Evidence from Japan," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    21. Juan Antolín-Díaz & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2017. "Narrative Sign Restrictions for SVARs," Working Papers 2017-07, FEDEA.
    22. Wei, Yanfeng, 2019. "Oil price shocks, economic policy uncertainty and China’s trade: A quantitative structural analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 20-31.
    23. Jonas E. Arias & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Minchul Shin, 2022. "The Causal Effects of Lockdown Policies on Health and Macroeconomic Outcomes," Working Papers 22-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    24. Lutz Kilian, 2019. "Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling," CESifo Working Paper Series 7902, CESifo.
    25. Alsamara, Mouyad Kassm & Mrabet, Zouhair & Elafif, Mohamed & Gangopadhyay, Partha, 2017. "The asymmetric effects of oil price on economic growth in Turkey and Saudi Arabia: new evidence from nonlinear ARDL approach," International Journal of Development and Conflict, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, vol. 7(2), pages 97-118.
    26. Martin Geiger & Johann Scharler, 2018. "How do consumers interpret the macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations? Evidence from U.S. survey data," Working Papers 2018-13, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    27. Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2013. "Futures trading and the excess comovement of commodity prices," Working Papers 2013-19, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    28. Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2013. "Does the Source of Oil Price Shocks Matter for South African Stock Returns? A Structural VAR Approach," Working Papers 201318, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    29. Martin Geiger & Jochen Güntner, 2019. "How are oil supply shocks transmitted to the U.S. economy?," Economics working papers 2019-13, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    30. Joëts, Marc, 2014. "Energy price transmissions during extreme movements," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 392-399.
    31. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2011. "The Role of Time-Varying Price Elasticities in Accounting for Volatility Changes in the Crude Oil Market," Staff Working Papers 11-28, Bank of Canada.
    32. Finck, David & Tillmann, Peter, 2022. "The macroeconomic effects of global supply chain disruptions," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2022, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    33. Selien De Schryder and Gert Peersman, 2015. "The U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate and the Demand for Oil," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    34. Salem Adel Ziadat & Aktham Maghyereh, 2024. "Energy profile and oil shocks: a dynamic analysis of their impact on stock markets," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(3), pages 757-780, September.
    35. Kilian, Lutz & Inoue, Atsushi, 2020. "The Role of the Prior in Estimating VAR Models with Sign Restrictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15545, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    36. Laumer, Sebastian, 2020. "Government spending and heterogeneous consumption dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    37. Alexius, Annika, 2017. "Why are real interest rates so low? Evidence from a structural VAR with sign restrictions," Research Papers in Economics 2017:6, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    38. Robin Braun & Ralf Brüggemann, 2020. "Identification of SVAR Models by Combining Sign Restrictions With External Instruments," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2020-01, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    39. Celso Brunetti & Marc Joëts & Valérie Mignon, 2024. "Reasons Behind Words: OPEC Narratives and the Oil Market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-003, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    40. Aït-Youcef, Camille & Joëts, Marc, 2024. "The role of index traders in the financialization of commodity markets: A behavioral finance approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    41. Huntington, Hillard, 2016. "The Historical “Roots” of U.S. Energy Price Shocks," MPRA Paper 74935, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    42. Jamie L. Cross & Chenghan Hou & Bao H. Nguyen, 2018. "On the China factor in international oil markets: A regime switching approach," Working Papers No 11/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    43. Stephan B. Bruns & Alessio Moneta & David I. Stern, 2019. "Estimating the Economy-Wide Rebound Effect Using Empirically Identified Structural Vector Autoregressions," LEM Papers Series 2019/27, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    44. Rufei Zhang & Haizhen Zhang & Wang Gao & Ting Li & Shixiong Yang, 2022. "The Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Exchange Rates—From a Time-Varying Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-20, July.
    45. Baumeister, Christiane & Hamilton, James, 2020. "Drawing Conclusions from Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified on the Basis of Sign Restrictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 14271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    46. Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2015. "Country-Specific Oil Supply Shocks and the Global Economy: a Counterfactual Analysis," Working Papers 927, Economic Research Forum, revised Jul 2015.
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    4. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2019. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates," Working Papers 1914, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. Kilian, Lutz & Fattouh, Bassam & Mahadeva, Lavan, 2012. "The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    1. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2011. "Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets," MPRA Paper 30140, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Kilian, Lutz & Lewis, Logan, 2009. "Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7594, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Kollmann, Robert & Zeugner, Stefan, 2012. "Leverage as a predictor for real activity and volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1267-1283.
    4. Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2016. "Are fluctuations in oil consumption permanent or transitory? Evidence from linear and nonlinear unit root tests," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 262-270.
    5. Fakhraddin Maroofi & Parviz Kafchehi, 2012. "The Influence of Oil Prices on an Oil-Importing Developing Economy," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 2(4), pages 66-82, October.
    6. Ismail O. Fasanya & Abiodun Adetokunbo & Felix O. Ajayi, 2018. "Oil Revenue Shocks and the Current Account Balance Dynamics in Nigeria: New evidence from Asymmetry and Structural Breaks," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 68(4), pages 72-87, October-D.
    7. Engemann, Kristie M. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2011. "Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. And International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 498-517, November.
    8. Yin Chu & J. Scott Holladay & Jacob LaRiviere, 2017. "Opportunity Cost Pass-through from Fossil Fuel Market Prices to Procurement Costs of the U.S. Power Producers," Working Papers 2017-02, University of Tennessee, Department of Economics.
    9. Domenico Ferraro & Ken Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Can oil prices forecast exchange rates?," Economics Working Papers 1461, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2015.
    10. John Bluedorn & Daniel Leigh, 2011. "Revisiting the Twin Deficits Hypothesis: The Effect of Fiscal Consolidation on the Current Account," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(4), pages 582-602, November.
    11. Dong Heon Kim, 2010. "What is an oil shock? Panel data evidence," Discussion Paper Series 1007, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    12. Basel Awartani & Aktham Maghyereh & Julie Ayton, 2019. "Oil Price Changes And Industrial Output In The Mena Region: Nonlinearities And Asymmetries," Working Papers 1342, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Sep 2019.
    13. Ercio Muñoz S. & Mariel C. Siravegna, 2013. "¿Tiene un Impacto el Precio de las Materias Primas Sobre las Bolsas de América Latina?," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 16(3), pages 102-118, December.
    14. Sugra Ingilab Humbatova & Natig Qadim-Oglu Hajiyev, 2019. "Oil Factor in Economic Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-40, April.
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    16. Anna Kormilitsina, 2011. "Oil Price Shocks and the Optimality of Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 199-223, January.
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    19. Goktug Sahin & Nukhet Dogan & M. Hakan Berument, 2023. "The effects of two benchmarks on Russian crude oil prices," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 733-748, April.
    20. Janzen, Joseph, 2015. "The Effect of U.S. International Food Aid on Prices for Dry Peas and Lentils," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211797, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    21. Haykaz Igityan, 2019. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy in Different Phases of Armenia's Business Cycle," Working Papers 11, Central Bank of Armenia.
    22. Sim, Nicholas, 2016. "Modeling the dependence structures of financial assets through the Copula Quantile-on-Quantile approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 31-45.
    23. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Arora, Vipin, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," MPRA Paper 96270, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "How sensitive are consumer expenditures to retail energy prices?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 766-779, September.
    25. Gianluigi Ferrucci & Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez & Luca Onorantea, 2012. "Food Price Pass-Through in the Euro Area: Non-Linearities and the Role of the Common Agricultural Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(1), pages 179-218, March.
    26. Neville Francis & Sergio Restrepo-Angel, 2018. "Sectoral and aggregate response to oil price shocks in the Colombian economy: SVAR and Local Projections approach," Borradores de Economia 1055, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    27. Borozan, Djula & Lolic Cipcic, Marina, 2022. "Asymmetric and nonlinear oil price pass-through to economic growth in Croatia: Do oil-related policy shocks matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    28. Fabrizio Venditti, 2010. "Down the non-linear road from oil to consumer energy prices: no much asymmetry along the way," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 751, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    29. Agboola, Emmanuel & Chowdhury, Rosen & Yang, Bo, 2024. "Oil price fluctuations and their impact on oil-exporting emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    30. Farhan Ahmed & Muhammad Osama Daudpota & Muhammad Kashif, 2017. "Oil Price Shocks And Industry Level Production Using Vector Autoregression: Empirical Evidence From Pakistan," Global Journal of Business Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 11(3), pages 13-25.
    31. Yeliz Yalcin & Cengiz Arikan & Furkan Emirmahmutoglu, 2015. "Determining the asymmetric effects of oil price changes on macroeconomic variables: a case study of Turkey," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(4), pages 737-746, November.
    32. Zhang, Chuanguo & Qu, Xuqin, 2015. "The effect of global oil price shocks on China's agricultural commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 354-364.
    33. Martin Bodenstein & Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri, 2007. "Oil shocks and external adjustment," International Finance Discussion Papers 897, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    34. Christopher N. Ekong & Ekpeno L. Effiong, 2015. "Oil Price Shocks and Nigeria’s Macroeconomy: Disentangling the Dynamics of Crude Oil Market Shocks," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 16(6), pages 920-935, December.
    35. Chuku, Chuku & Effiong, Ekpeno & Sam, Ndifreke, 2010. "Oil price distortions and their short- and long-run impacts on the Nigerian economy," MPRA Paper 24434, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    36. Valcarcel, Victor J. & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "Changes in the oil price-inflation pass-through," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 24-42.
    37. Scholtens, Bert & Yurtsever, Cenk, 2012. "Oil price shocks and European industries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1187-1195.
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  70. Lucas W. Davis & Lutz Kilian, 2008. "The Allocative Cost of Price Ceilings in the U.S. Residential Market for Natural Gas," NBER Working Papers 14030, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    1. Nancy L. Rose, 2014. "Learning from the Past: Insights for the Regulation of Economic Activity," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Regulation and Its Reform: What Have We Learned?, pages 1-23, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Lucas W. Davis & Erich Muehlegger, 2010. "Do Americans Consume Too Little Natural Gas? An Empirical Test of Marginal Cost Pricing," NBER Working Papers 15885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Yanke Dai & Yangfei Xu, 2022. "Cheating under Regulation: Evidence from “Yin-and-Yang” Contracts on Beijing’s Housing Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-29, October.
    4. Corrado Di Maria & Ian A. Lange & Emiliya Lazarova, 2014. "A Look Upstream: Electricity Market Restructuring, Risk, Procurement Contracts and Efficiency," CESifo Working Paper Series 5124, CESifo.
    5. Bennett, John & Chioveanu, Ioana, 2015. "The Optimal Minimum Wage with Regulatory Uncertainty," IZA Discussion Papers 9576, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Aart Gerritsen & Bas Jacobs, 2016. "Is a Minimum Wage an Appropriate Instrument for Redistribution?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-100/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Zhongmin Wang and Alan Krupnick, 2015. "A Retrospective Review of Shale Gas Development in the United States: What Led to the Boom?," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    8. LaPlue, Lawrence D., 2022. "Environmental consequences of natural gas wellhead pricing deregulation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    9. Alec Brandon & Paul J. Ferraro & John A. List & Robert D. Metcalfe & Michael K. Price & Florian Rundhammer, 2017. "Do The Effects of Social Nudges Persist? Theory and Evidence from 38 Natural Field Experiments," Experimental Economics Center Working Paper Series 2017-04, Experimental Economics Center, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    10. Kilian, Lutz & Alquist, Ron & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 8388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Paul J. Gertler & Orie Shelef & Catherine D. Wolfram & Alan Fuchs, 2016. "The Demand for Energy-Using Assets among the World's Rising Middle Classes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(6), pages 1366-1401, June.
    12. McRae, Shaun D. & Wolak, Frank A., 2021. "Retail pricing in Colombia to support the efficient deployment of distributed generation and electric stoves," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    13. Chan, H. Ron & Fell, Harrison & Lange, Ian & Li, Shanjun, 2017. "Efficiency and environmental impacts of electricity restructuring on coal-fired power plants," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-18.
    14. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2017. "Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?," Staff Working Papers 17-50, Bank of Canada.
    15. Eleftheriou, Konstantinos & Polemis, Michael L. & Stengos, Thanasis, 2022. "Does market power converge among the US states? Evidence from the natural gas sector," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    16. Nolan Ritter & Julia Anna Bingler, 2021. "Do homo sapiens know their prices? Insights on dysfunctional price mechanisms from a large field experiment," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 21/348, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    17. Hill, Alexander, 2024. "The great U.S. emissions migration," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    18. Simon Porcher & Alexandros Maziotis & Maria Molinos-Senante, 2017. "The welfare costs of non-marginal water pricing: evidence from the water only companies in England and Wales," Post-Print hal-02145826, HAL.
    19. Di Maria, Corrado & Lange, Ian & Lazarova, Emiliya, 2018. "A look upstream: Market restructuring, risk, procurement contracts and efficiency," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 35-83.
    20. Chen Ling & David Scrogin, 2014. "Optimal pricing of public lotteries and comparison of competing mechanisms," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(26), pages 3211-3223, September.
    21. Aart Gerritsen, 2016. "Equity and Efficiency in Rationed Labor Markets," Working Papers tax-mpg-rps-2016-04, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance.
    22. Burgess, Robin & Greenstone, Michael & Ryan, Nicholas & Sudarshan, Anant, 2020. "The consequences of treating electricity as a right," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102466, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    23. Nicholas Ryan & Anant Sudarshan, 2020. "Rationing the Commons," Working Papers 2020-93, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    24. Jeremy Bulow & Paul Klemperer, 2009. "Price Controls and Consumer Surplus," Economics Papers 2009-W07, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    25. Fotis, Panagiotis & Polemis, Michael, 2018. "The impact of market deregulation on milk price: A dynamic panel data approach," MPRA Paper 86542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. McCoy, Daire & Curtice, John, 2018. "Exploring the spatial and temporal determinants of gas central heating adoption," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86625, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    27. Ingene, Charles A. & Parry, Mark E. & Xu, Zibin, 2020. "Resale Price Maintenance: Customer Service Without Free Riding," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 96(4), pages 563-577.
    28. Myers, Erica, 2020. "Asymmetric information in residential rental markets: Implications for the energy efficiency gap," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    29. Jeremy Bulow & Paul Klemperer, 2012. "Regulated Prices, Rent Seeking, and Consumer Surplus," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(1), pages 160-186.
    30. Daniel Müller & Elisabeth Gsottbauer, 2021. "Why Do People Demand Rent Control?," Working Papers 2021-20, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    31. Gerritsen, Aart, 2017. "Equity and efficiency in rationed labor markets," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 56-68.
    32. Daire McCoy, John Curtis, 2017. "Exploring the spatial and temporal determinants of gas central heating adoption," GRI Working Papers 320, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    33. Marks, Levi & Mason, Charles & Mohlin, Kristina & Zaragoza-Watkins, Matthew, 2017. "Vertical Market Power in Interconnected Natural Gas and Electricity Markets," RFF Working Paper Series 17-27, Resources for the Future.
    34. Youming Liu & Shanjun Li & Caixia Shen, 2020. "The Dynamic Efficiency in Resource Allocation: Evidence from Vehicle License Lotteries in Beijing," NBER Working Papers 26904, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Janjala Chirakijja & Seema Jayachandran & Pinchuan Ong, 2024. "The Mortality Effects of Winter Heating Prices," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(657), pages 402-417.
    36. Hanemann, Michael & Labandeira, Xavier & Labeaga, José M. & Vásquez-Lavín, Felipe, 2024. "Discrete-continuous models of residential energy demand: A comprehensive review," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    37. Bennett, John & Chioveanu, Ioana, 2016. "Pro-Consumer Price Ceilings under Regulatory Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 72161, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    38. Andreas Mense & Claus Michelsen & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2019. "Rent Control, Market Segmentation, and Misallocation: Causal Evidence from a Large-Scale Policy Intervention," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1832, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    39. Herrera, Ana María & Hu, Liang & Pastor, Daniel, 2018. "Forecasting crude oil price volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 622-635.
    40. Alec Brandon & Paul J. Ferraro & John A. List & Robert D. Metcalfe & Michael K. Price & Florian Rundhammer, 2017. "Do The Effects of Nudges Persist? Theory and Evidence from 38 Natural Field Experiments," NBER Working Papers 23277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Aart Gerritsen, 2016. "How Many Harberger Triangles Does it Take to Fill one Okun Gap?," Working Papers tax-mpg-rps-2016-05, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance.
    42. Klaus Gugler & Adhurim Haxhimusa & Mario Liebensteiner, 2018. "Integration of European Electricity Markets: Evidence from Spot Prices," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(2_suppl), pages 41-66, December.
    43. Nicholas Ryan & Anant Sudarshan, 2020. "Rationing the Commons," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2239, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    44. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    45. Gerard, Francois, 2013. "What Changes Energy Consumption, and for How Long? New Evidence from the 2001 Brazilian Electricity Crisis," RFF Working Paper Series dp-13-06, Resources for the Future.
    46. Xiang, Di & Lawley, Chad, 2019. "The impact of British Columbia's carbon tax on residential natural gas consumption," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 206-218.
    47. Leautier, Thomas-Olivier, 2018. "On the long-term impact price caps: Investment, uncertainty, imperfect competition, and rationing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 53-95.
    48. Shanjun Li, 2018. "Better Lucky Than Rich? Welfare Analysis of Automobile Licence Allocations in Beijing and Shanghai," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(4), pages 2389-2428.
    49. Gazze, Ludovica, 2021. "The price and allocation effects of targeted mandates: Evidence from lead hazards," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    50. Nicholas Ryan & Anant Sudarshan, 2020. "Rationing the Commons," NBER Working Papers 27473, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    51. Brehm, Paul, 2019. "Natural gas prices, electric generation investment, and greenhouse gas emissions," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).

  71. Kilian, Lutz, 2008. "Why Does Gasoline Cost so Much? A Joint Model of the Global Crude Oil Market and the U.S. Retail Gasoline Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6919, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Kilian, Lutz & Rebucci, Alessandro & Spatafora, Nikola, 2007. "Oil Shocks and External Balances," CEPR Discussion Papers 6303, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Lutz Kilian & Clara Vega, 2008. "Do energy prices respond to U.S. macroeconomic news? a test of the hypothesis of predetermined energy prices," International Finance Discussion Papers 957, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Kilian, Lutz & Hicks, Bruce, 2009. "Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7265, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. John D. Burger & Alessandro Rebucci & Francis E. Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2010. "External Capital Structures and Oil Price Volatility," NBER Working Papers 16052, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Katarzyna Leszkiewicz-Kędzior, 2011. "Modelling Fuel Prices. An I(1) Analysis," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 3(2), pages 75-95, June.

  72. Kilian, Lutz & Vega, Clara, 2008. "Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 7015, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Martin Feldkircher & Pierre L. Siklos, 2018. "Global inflation dynamics and inflation expectations," CAMA Working Papers 2018-60, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Smales, L.A., 2017. "Commodity market volatility in the presence of U.S. and Chinese macroeconomic news," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(C), pages 15-27.
    3. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2013. "Forecasting Crude Oil Price Movements with Oil-Sensitive Stocks," MPRA Paper 49240, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2019. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates," Working Papers 1914, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. Wensheng Kang & Jing Wang, 2018. "Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and earnings surprises," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 375-388, August.
    6. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2021. "The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23," CESifo Working Paper Series 9455, CESifo.
    7. Rodrigo da Silva Souza & Leonardo Bornacki Mattos, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks on an emerging market economy," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 803-824, April.
    8. Kucher, Oleg & Kurov, Alexander, 2014. "Business cycle, storage, and energy prices," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 217-226.
    9. Nikolay Gospodinov & Ibrahim Jamali, 2013. "Monetary policy surprises, positions of traders, and changes in commodity futures prices," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2013-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    10. Ivan, Miruna-Daniela & Banti, Chiara & Kellard, Neil, 2025. "Liquidity, monetary policy and the commodity futures market," Bank of England working papers 1114, Bank of England.
    11. Abhay Abhyankar, Bing Xu, and Jiayue Wang, 2013. "Oil Price Shocks and the Stock Market: Evidence from Japan," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    12. Ron Alquist & Olivier Gervais, 2011. "The Role of Financial Speculation in Driving the Price of Crude Oil," Discussion Papers 11-6, Bank of Canada.
    13. Cristina Conflitti and Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Oil Price Pass-through into Core Inflation," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
    14. Chan, Kam Fong & Chhagan, Mahesh & Marsden, Alastair, 2017. "Cross-border scheduled macroeconomic news impacts: Evidence from high-frequency Asia Pacific currencies," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 37-54.
    15. Gao, Liping & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Saba, Richard, 2014. "How Do Oil Price Shocks Affect Consumer Prices?," MPRA Paper 57259, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Wensheng Kang & Ronald A. Ratti, 2014. "Policy Uncertainty in China, Oil Shocks and Stock Returns," CAMA Working Papers 2014-32, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    17. Martin Geiger & Johann Scharler, 2018. "How do consumers interpret the macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations? Evidence from U.S. survey data," Working Papers 2018-13, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    18. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Julia Zhulanova, 2019. "The shale oil boom and the U.S. economy: Spillovers and time-varying effects," Working Paper 2019/14, Norges Bank.
    19. Kilian, Lutz & Lewis, Logan, 2009. "Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7594, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Blaise Gnimassoun & Marc Joëts & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2016. "On the link between current account and oil price fluctuations in diversified economies: The case of Canada," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-35, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    21. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2016. "The impact of oil price shocks on the U.S. stock market: A note on the roles of U.S. and non-U.S. oil production," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 176-181.
    22. Duc Khuong Nguyen & Thomas Walther, 2020. "Modeling and forecasting commodity market volatility with long‐term economic and financial variables," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 126-142, March.
    23. Tarek Chebbi, 2021. "The response of precious metal futures markets to unconventional monetary surprises in the presence of uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1897-1916, April.
    24. Martin Geiger & Jochen Güntner, 2019. "How are oil supply shocks transmitted to the U.S. economy?," Economics working papers 2019-13, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    25. A. Anzuini & M. J. Lombardi & P. Pagano, 2013. "The Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Commodity Prices," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 125-150, September.
    26. James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2017. "Estimating and accounting for the output gap with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," CAMA Working Papers 2017-46, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    27. Benjamin Wong, 2015. "Do Inflation Expectations Propagate the Inflationary Impact of Real Oil Price Shocks?: Evidence from the Michigan Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1673-1689, December.
    28. Chatrath, Arjun & Miao, Hong & Ramchander, Sanjay & Wang, Tianyang, 2016. "An examination of the flow characteristics of crude oil: Evidence from risk-neutral moments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 213-223.
    29. Aye, Goodness C. & Dadam, Vincent & Gupta, Rangan & Mamba, Bonginkosi, 2014. "Oil price uncertainty and manufacturing production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 41-47.
    30. Robert G. Bowman & Kam Fong Chan & Christopher J. Neely, 2017. "Systematic Cojumps, Market Component Portfolios and Scheduled Macroeconomic Announcements," Working Papers 2017-11, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    31. Wensheng Kang & Ronald A. Ratti & Kyung Hwan Yoon, 2015. "Time-varying effect of oil market shocks on the stock market," CAMA Working Papers 2015-35, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    32. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald. A. & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2017. "Oil price shocks and policy uncertainty: New evidence on the effects of US and non-US oil production," Working Papers 2017-02, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    33. Smales, L.A., 2019. "Slopes, spreads, and depth: Monetary policy announcements and liquidity provision in the energy futures market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 234-252.
    34. Bastianin, Andrea & Manera, Matteo, 2018. "How Does Stock Market Volatility React To Oil Price Shocks?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 666-682, April.
    35. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2023. "A broader perspective on the inflationary effects of energy price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    36. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2020. "Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and Inflation Expectations: A New Model and New Facts," Working Papers 2025, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    37. Qiu, Cheng & Colson, Gregory & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2011. "Considering Macroeconomic Indicators in the Food versus Fuel Issues," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103689, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    38. Jozef Baruni & Evzen Kocenda & Lukas Vacha, 2015. "Volatility spillovers across petroleum markets," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1093, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    39. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2011. "Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 326-336, September.
    40. Ioannis Arampatzidis & Theologos Dergiades & Robert. K. Kaufmann & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2021. "Oil and the U.S. Stock Market: Implications for Low Carbon Policies," Working Paper series 21-19, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    41. Matthias Gubler & Matthias S. Hertweck, 2013. "Commodity Price Shocks and the Business Cycle: Structural Evidence for the U.S," Working Papers 2013-05, Swiss National Bank.
    42. Cristiana Belu Manescu & Ine Van Robays, 2016. "Forecasting the Brent Oil Price: Addressing Time-Variation in Forecast Performance," CESifo Working Paper Series 6242, CESifo.
    43. Tsai, Chun-Li, 2013. "The high-frequency asymmetric response of stock returns to monetary policy for high oil price events," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 166-176.
    44. Domenico Ferraro & Ken Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Can oil prices forecast exchange rates?," Economics Working Papers 1461, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2015.
    45. Aymen Belgacem & Anna Creti & Khaled Guesmi & Amine Lahiani, 2014. "Volatility spillovers and macroeconomic announcements: evidence from crude oil markets," Working Papers 2014-50, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    46. Olivier Rousse & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "Informed trading in oil futures markets," Post-Print hal-02089772, HAL.
    47. Güntner, Jochen & Öhlinger, Peter, 2022. "Oil price shocks and the hedging benefit of airline investments," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    48. Jobling, Andrew & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2017. "Price volatility and demand for oil: A comparative analysis of developed and developing countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 96-113.
    49. Mohamad B. Karaki, 2018. "Asymmetries In The Responses Of Regional Job Flows To Oil Price Shocks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(3), pages 1827-1845, July.
    50. Marco J. Lombardi & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2012. "Oil price density forecasts: exploring the linkages with stock markets," Working Paper 2012/24, Norges Bank.
    51. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2022. "Oil prices, gasoline prices, and inflation expectations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 867-881, August.
    52. Bradley T. Ewing & Mark A. Thompson, 2018. "Modeling the Response of Gasoline-Crude Oil Price Crack Spread Macroeconomic Shocks," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 203-213, June.
    53. Kilian, Lutz & Alquist, Ron & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 8388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    54. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2014. "The role of oil price shocks in causing U.S. recessions," CFS Working Paper Series 460, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    55. Marc Joëts & Valérie Mignon & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2015. "Does the volatility of commodity prices reflect macroeconomic uncertainty?," Working Papers 2015-02, CEPII research center.
    56. Marco Flaccadoro, 2022. "Exchange rate pass-through in small, open, commodity-exporting economies: lessons from Canada," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1368, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    57. C. Baumeister & G. Peersman, 2008. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/515, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    58. Roache, Shaun K. & Rossi, Marco, 2010. "The effects of economic news on commodity prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 377-385, August.
    59. Fédéric Holm-Hadulla & Kirstin Hubrich, 2017. "Macroeconomic Implications of Oil Price Fluctuations : A Regime-Switching Framework for the Euro Area," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-063, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    60. Morana, Claudio, 2012. "Oil Price Dynamics, Macro-Finance Interactions and the Role of Financial Speculation," Energy: Resources and Markets 121723, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    61. Hwang, Inwook & Kim, Jaebeom, 2021. "Oil price shocks and the US stock market: A nonlinear approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 23-36.
    62. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2015. "Macro News and Commodity Returns," CESifo Working Paper Series 5551, CESifo.
    63. Hardik A. Marfatia & Rangan Gupta & Esin Cakan, 2019. "Dynamic Impact of the U.S. Monetary Policy on Oil Market Returns and Volatility," Working Papers 201916, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    64. Deepa Dhume Datta & Benjamin K. Johannsen & Hannah Kwon & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2018. "Oil, Equities, and the Zero Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-058, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    65. Du, Xiaodong & McPhail, Lihong Lu, 2011. "Inside the Black Box: Price Linkage and Transmission Between Energy and Agricultural Markets," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103268, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    66. Tsai, Chun-Li, 2015. "How do U.S. stock returns respond differently to oil price shocks pre-crisis, within the financial crisis, and post-crisis?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 47-62.
    67. Malikov, Emir, 2015. "Dynamic Responses to Oil Price Shocks: Conditional vs Unconditional (A)symmetry," MPRA Paper 68453, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    68. Ferraro, Domenico & Rogoff, Kenneth & Rossi, Barbara, 2015. "Can oil prices forecast exchange rates? An empirical analysis of the relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 116-141.
    69. Alberto Caruso, 2018. "Macroeconomic News and Market Reaction: Surprise Indexes meet Nowcasting," Working Papers ECARES 2018-06, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    70. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Pitfalls in Estimating Asymmetric Effects of Energy Price Shocks," 2009 Meeting Papers 473, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    71. Gonçalves, Sílvia & Herrera, Ana María & Kilian, Lutz & Pesavento, Elena, 2021. "Impulse response analysis for structural dynamic models with nonlinear regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(1), pages 107-130.
    72. Marcel Fratzscher & Daniel Schneider & Ine Van Robays, 2013. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Asset Prices," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1302, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    73. Jang, Hyeonung & Seo, Byoung Ki, 2020. "Monetary policy rate expectation and energy prices during the FOMC announcement period," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    74. Lombardi, Marco J. & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "On the correlation between commodity and equity returns: Implications for portfolio allocation," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 45-57.
    75. Bachmeier, Lance, 2013. "Identification in models of gasoline pricing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 71-73.
    76. Brunetti, Celso & Harris, Jeffrey H. & Mankad, Shawn & Michailidis, George, 2019. "Interconnectedness in the interbank market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 520-538.
    77. Güneş Kamber & Benjamin Wong, 2018. "Global factors and trend inflation," BIS Working Papers 688, Bank for International Settlements.
    78. Mr. Shaun K. Roache & Mr. Marco Rossi, 2009. "The Effects of Economic News on Commodity Prices: Is Gold Just Another Commodity?," IMF Working Papers 2009/140, International Monetary Fund.
    79. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011. "Nonlinearities In The Oil Price–Output Relationship," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 337-363, November.
    80. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2018. "The propagation of regional shocks in housing markets: Evidence from oil price shocks in Canada," CFS Working Paper Series 606, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    81. Bastianin, Andrea & Conti, Francesca & Manera, Matteo, 2016. "The Impacts of Oil Price Shocks on Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from the G7 Countries," Energy: Resources and Markets 230682, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    82. Kang, Wensheng & Perez de Gracia, Fernando & Ratti, Ronald A., 2017. "Oil price shocks, policy uncertainty, and stock returns of oil and gas corporations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 344-359.
    83. John Elder, Hong Miao, and Sanjay Ramchander, 2013. "Jumps in Oil Prices: The Role of Economic News," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    84. Torró, Hipòlit, 2018. "The Response of European Energy Prices to ECB Monetary Policy," ETA: Economic Theory and Applications 269537, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    85. Andrea Bastianin & Marzio Galeotti & Matteo Manera, 2015. "The Impacts of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Mediterranean Economies," Working Papers 2015.100, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    86. Ron Alquist & Reinhard Ellwanger & Jianjian Jin, 2020. "The effect of oil price shocks on asset markets: Evidence from oil inventory news," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1212-1230, August.
    87. Sofronis Clerides & Styliani-Iris Krokida & Neophytos Lambertides & Dimitris Tsouknidis, 2020. "What matters for consumer sentiment? World oil price or retail gasoline price?," Working Paper series 20-22, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    88. Ivan Hajdukovic, 2021. "Interactions among macroeconomic policies, the energy market and environmental quality," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 23(4), pages 861-913, October.
    89. Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 7324, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    90. Lyócsa, Štefan & Molnár, Peter & Plíhal, Tomáš & Širaňová, Mária, 2020. "Impact of macroeconomic news, regulation and hacking exchange markets on the volatility of bitcoin," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    91. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Structural oil price shocks and policy uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 314-319.
    92. Shiu-Sheng Chen, 2016. "Commodity prices and related equity prices," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(3), pages 949-967, August.
    93. Kilian, Lutz & Baumeister, Christiane, 2013. "Do Oil Price Increases Cause Higher Food Prices?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    94. Klodiana Istrefi & Sarah Mouabbi, 2017. "Subjective interest rate uncertainty and the macroeconomy : a cross-country analysis," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 48, september.
    95. De, Kuhelika & Compton, Ryan A. & Giedeman, Daniel C., 2022. "Oil shocks and the U.S. economy in a data-rich model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    96. Atri, Hanen & Kouki, Saoussen & Gallali, Mohamed imen, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 news, panic and media coverage on the oil and gold prices: An ARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    97. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2017. "Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?," Staff Working Papers 17-50, Bank of Canada.
    98. Herrera, Ana María & Lagalo, Latika Gupta & Wada, Tatsuma, 2015. "Asymmetries in the response of economic activity to oil price increases and decreases?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 108-133.
    99. Jean Louis, Rosmy & Brown, Ryan & Balli, Faruk, 2011. "On the Feasibility of Monetary Union: Does It Make Sense to Look for Shocks Symmetry across Countries When None of the Countries Constitutes an Optimum Currency Area?," MPRA Paper 39942, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    100. Cao, Fangzhi & Su, Chi-Wei & Sun, Dian & Qin, Meng & Umar, Muhammad, 2024. "U.S. monetary policy: The pushing hands of crude oil price?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
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    102. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2021. "Asymmetric responses of consumer spending to energy prices: A threshold VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    103. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and stock market return," MPRA Paper 49008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kyritsis, Evangelos & Serletis, Apostolos, 2017. "The Zero Lower Bound and Market Spillovers: Evidence from the G7 and Norway," Discussion Papers 2017/7, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
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    5. Yasunori Yoshizaki, 2011. "Investigating effects of oil price changes on the US, the UK and Japan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2641-2652.
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    7. Etienne, Xiaoli, 2015. "Financialization of Agricultural Commodity Markets: Do Financial Data Help to Forecast Agricultural Prices," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211626, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2013. "Forecasting Crude Oil Price Movements with Oil-Sensitive Stocks," MPRA Paper 49240, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dey Shubhasis, 2017. "Sources of Uncertainty and the Indian Economy," Working papers 253, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.
    2. Peng Li & Yaofu Ouyang, 2023. "Oil price shocks and China’s consumer and entrepreneur sentiment: a Bayesian structural VAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2241-2271, November.
    3. Mahmood -ur- Rahman & Zakaria Zoundi, 2018. "Macroeconomic Response of Disentangled Oil Price Shocks: Empirical Evidence from Japan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(4), pages 2240-2253.
    4. Cristina Conflitti and Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Oil Price Pass-through into Core Inflation," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
    5. Apostolos Serletis & Libo Xu, "undated". "Markov Switching Oil Price Uncertainty," Working Papers 2019-02, Department of Economics, University of Calgary, revised 02 Jan 2019.
    6. Gulzar Khan & Adiqa Kiani & Ather Maqsood Ahmed, 2017. "Globalization, Endogenous Oil Price Shocks and Chinese Economic Activity," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 22(2), pages 39-64, July-Dec.
    7. H. Rajesh Acharya & C. Anver Sadath, 2016. "Energy Price Uncertainty and Investment: Firm Level Evidence from Indian Manufacturing Sector," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 364-373.
    8. Joëts, Marc, 2014. "Energy price transmissions during extreme movements," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 392-399.
    9. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2017. "The nexus between the oil price and its volatility in a stochastic volatility in mean model with time-varying parameters," Working Papers 15-33, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    10. Elder, John & Serletis, Apostolos, 2009. "Oil price uncertainty in Canada," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 852-856, November.
    11. Aye, Goodness C. & Dadam, Vincent & Gupta, Rangan & Mamba, Bonginkosi, 2014. "Oil price uncertainty and manufacturing production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 41-47.
    12. Jihoon Lee & Hong Chong Cho, 2021. "Impact of Structural Oil Price Shock Factors on the Gasoline Market and Macroeconomy in South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, February.
    13. Aït-Youcef, Camille & Joëts, Marc, 2024. "The role of index traders in the financialization of commodity markets: A behavioral finance approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    14. Rahman, Sajjadur & Serletis, Apostolos, 2012. "Oil price uncertainty and the Canadian economy: Evidence from a VARMA, GARCH-in-Mean, asymmetric BEKK model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 603-610.
    15. John Elder & Apostolos Serletis, 2010. "Oil Price Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1137-1159, September.
    16. Vidya Sukumara Panicker & Sumit Mitra & Rajesh Srinivas Upadhyayula, 2018. "Ownership in Emerging Market Firms and International investments: Board independence and CEO duality as Moderators," Working papers 252, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.
    17. Ameyaw, Emmanuel, 2024. "Business cycles in a cocoa and gold economy: Commodity price shocks do not always matter," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    18. Xinheng Liu & Shuxian Li & Chengbo Fu & Xu Gong & Chen Fan, 2024. "The oil price plummeted in 2014–2015: Is there an effect on Chinese firms' labour investment?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 943-960, January.
    19. Matthias Gubler & Matthias S. Hertweck, 2013. "Commodity Price Shocks and the Business Cycle: Structural Evidence for the U.S," Working Papers 2013-05, Swiss National Bank.
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    21. Claudio Morana, 2012. "The Oil price-Macroeconomy Relationship since the Mid- 1980s: A global perspective," Working Papers 2012.28, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    22. Petroulakis, Filippos, 2017. "Internal devaluation in currency unions: the role of trade costs and taxes," Working Paper Series 2049, European Central Bank.
    23. Ordóñez, Javier & Sala, Hector & Silva, José I., 2010. "Oil Price Shocks and Labor Market Fluctuations," IZA Discussion Papers 5096, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    24. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2014. "The role of oil price shocks in causing U.S. recessions," CFS Working Paper Series 460, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    25. Marc Joëts & Valérie Mignon & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2015. "Does the volatility of commodity prices reflect macroeconomic uncertainty?," Working Papers 2015-02, CEPII research center.
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    27. Gulzar Khan & Ather Maqsood Ahmed, 2020. "Understanding Business Cycle Fluctuations in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 1-28.
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    29. Anh, Dao Le Trang & Quang, Nguyen Thi Thieu & Anh, Nguyen Tuan, 2024. "Investment decision and efficiency: Global insights on manufacturing firms amidst energy uncertainties," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
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    33. Amin, Md Ruhul & Wang, Xinyu & Aktas, Elvan, 2023. "Does oil price uncertainty affect corporate innovation?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    34. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011. "Nonlinearities In The Oil Price–Output Relationship," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 337-363, November.
    35. Ravago, Majah-Leah V. & Brucal, Arlan Zandro & Roumasset, James & Punongbayan, Jan Carlo, 2019. "The role of power prices in structural transformation: Evidence from the Philippines," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 20-33.
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    38. Amélie Charles & Chew Lian Chua & Olivier Darné & Sandy Suardi, 2021. "Oil Price Shocks, Real Economic Activity and Uncertainty," Post-Print hal-03284089, HAL.
    39. Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 7324, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    40. Raheem, Ibrahim D., 2017. "Asymmetry and break effects of oil price -macroeconomic fundamentals dynamics: The trade effect channel," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 12-25.
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    43. Apostolos Serletis & Libo Xu, 2023. "Oil price uncertainty and climate risks," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(2), pages 323-332, June.
    44. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2017. "Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?," Staff Working Papers 17-50, Bank of Canada.
    45. Herrera, Ana María & Lagalo, Latika Gupta & Wada, Tatsuma, 2015. "Asymmetries in the response of economic activity to oil price increases and decreases?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 108-133.
    46. Rajesh H. Acharya & Anver C. Sadath, 2018. "Revisiting the relationship between oil price and macro economy: Evidence from India," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2018(1), pages 173-190.
    47. Wei Kang & David Penn & Joachim Zietz, 2015. "The response of state employment to oil price volatility," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(3), pages 478-500, July.
    48. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca, 2008. "The impact of oil price shocks: Evidence from the industries of six OECD countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3095-3108, November.
    49. Zhengke Ye & Chunyan Hu & Linjie He & Guangda Ouyang & Fenghua Wen, 2020. "The Dynamic Time-frequency Relationship between International Oil Prices and Investor Sentiment in China: A Wavelet Coherence Analysis," The Energy Journal, , vol. 41(5), pages 251-270, September.
    50. Goodness C. Aye, 2014. "Does Oil Price Uncertainty Matter for Stock Returns in South Africa?," Working Papers 201484, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    51. Ahmadi, Maryam & Manera, Matteo, 2021. "Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth in Oil-Exporting Countries," FEEM Working Papers 311052, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    52. Luiggi Donayre & Neil A. Wilmot, 2016. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Canadian Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 167-182.
    53. Long, Shaobo & Pei, Hongxia & Tian, Hao & Li, Fangfang, 2021. "Asymmetric impacts of economic policy uncertainty, capital cost, and raw material cost on China’s investment," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 129-144.
    54. Majah-Leah V. Ravago & Arlan Zandro I. Brucal & James Roumasset & Jan Carlo Punongbayan, 2019. "The Role of Electricity Prices in Structural Transformation: Evidence from the Philippines," Working Papers 201904, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    55. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2017. "Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is this Time Different?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6322, CESifo.
    56. Jo, Soojin & Karnizova, Lilia & Reza, Abeer, 2019. "Industry effects of oil price shocks: A re-examination," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 179-190.
    57. Valadkhani, Abbas & Smyth, Russell, 2017. "How do daily changes in oil prices affect US monthly industrial output?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 83-90.
    58. Puch, Luis A., 2013. "A theory of vintage capital investment and energy use," UC3M Working papers. Economics we1320, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    59. Zakaria, Muhammad & Khiam, Shahzeb & Mahmood, Hamid, 2021. "Influence of oil prices on inflation in South Asia: Some new evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    60. Kandemir Kocaaslan, Ozge, 2019. "Oil price uncertainty and unemployment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 577-583.
    61. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2019. "The nexus between the oil price and its volatility risk in a stochastic volatility in the mean model with time-varying parameters," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 572-584.
    62. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2014. "Firm return volatility and economic gains: The role of oil prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 142-151.
    63. Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2016. "Real Output and Oil Price Uncertainty: Evidence from an Oil Producing Country," MPRA Paper 71307, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Apr 2016.
    64. Aharon, David Y. & Azman Aziz, Mukhriz Izraf & Kallir, Ido, 2023. "Oil price shocks and inflation: A cross-national examination in the ASEAN5+3 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    65. Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "How sensitive are consumer expenditures to retail energy prices?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 766-779, September.
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    67. Maghyereh Aktham & Sweidan Osama & Awartani Basel, 2020. "Asymmetric Responses of Economic Growth to Daily Oil Price Changes: New Global Evidence from Mixed-data Sampling Approach," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 71(2), pages 81-99, August.
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    69. Kamel Malik Bensafta, 2022. "The impact of oil price shocks on economic growth in Algeria," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2022(2), pages 63-82.
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    71. Aktham I. Maghyereh & Basil Awartani & Osama D. Sweidan, 2019. "Oil price uncertainty and real output growth: new evidence from selected oil-importing countries in the Middle East," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 1601-1621, May.
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    76. Zalina Zainal, Zalina & Aziz, Mukhriz Izraf Azman & Md. Salleh, Mohd Faisol, 2021. "The Effect of Asymmetrical Relationship of Oil Price Shocks on Gross Domestic Product," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 55(2), pages 121-135.
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    78. Natalya (Natasha) Delcoure & Harmeet Singh, 2018. "Oil and equity: too deep into each other," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(1), pages 89-111, January.
    79. Jesus Cuauhtemoc Tellez Gaytan & Aqila Rafiuddin & Gyanendra Singh Sisodia & Gouher Ahmed & CH Paramaiah, 2023. "Pass-through Effects of Oil Prices on LATAM Emerging Stocks before and during COVID-19: An Evidence from a Wavelet -VAR Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 529-543, January.
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    81. Wu, JunJie & Sexton, Steven & Zilberman, David, 2019. "Energy price shocks, household location patterns and housing crises: Theory and implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 691-706.
    82. Dhaoui Abderrazak & Chevallier Julien & Ma Feng, 2021. "Identifying asymmetric responses of sectoral equities to oil price shocks in a NARDL model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(2), pages 1-19, April.
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    84. Kovač Rijad & Verbič Miroslav, 2023. "Wealth Inequality and Institutional Development: Macroeconometric Evidence from a Global Sample," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 18(1), pages 100-114, June.
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    86. César Castro & Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez & Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra, 2017. "A new look at oil price pass-through into inflation: evidence from disaggregated European data," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 34(1), pages 55-82, April.
    87. Maria Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañes, 2011. "ECONOMIC GROWTH, INFLATION AND OIL SHOCKS: ARE THE 1970s COMING BACK?," Post-Print hal-00720578, HAL.
    88. Atems, Bebonchu & Mette, Jehu & Lin, Guoyu & Madraki, Golshan, 2023. "Estimating and forecasting the impact of nonrenewable energy prices on US renewable energy consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    89. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Luttmer, Erzo F.P., 2007. "Does the Minimum Wage Cause Inefficient Rationing?," IZA Discussion Papers 2713, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Kilian, Lutz & Edelstein, Paul, 2007. "Retail Energy Prices and Consumer Expenditures," CEPR Discussion Papers 6255, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

  78. Kilian, Lutz & Manganelli, Simone, 2007. "The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences under Greenspan," CEPR Discussion Papers 6031, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    1. Riboni, Alessandro & Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 2020. "The Power of the Federal Reserve Chair," CEPR Discussion Papers 14878, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Suarez, Javier, 2022. "Growth-at-risk and macroprudential policy design," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    3. Christian Pierdzioch & Jan-Christoph Rülke & Peter Tillmann, 2013. "Using forecasts to uncover the loss function of FOMC members," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201302, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    4. Ryan Banerjee & Aaron Mehrotra, 2023. "Unanticipated and Backward-Looking: Deflations and the Behavior of Inflation Expectations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(4), pages 41-83, October.
    5. Luci Alessi & Eric Ghysels & Luca Onorante & Richard Peach & Simon M. Potter, 2014. "Central bank macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis: the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York experiences," Staff Reports 680, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Francois Gourio & Jonas Fisher, 2015. "Risk Management for Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," 2015 Meeting Papers 665, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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    1. Elder, John & Serletis, Apostolos, 2009. "Oil price uncertainty in Canada," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 852-856, November.
    2. Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6559, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    5. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why Are the 2000s so Different from the 1970s?," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 373-421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Reicher, Christopher Phillip & Utlaut, Johannes Friederich, 2010. "The relationship between oil prices and long-term interest rates," Kiel Working Papers 1637, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Espinosa Acuña, Óscar A. & Vaca González, Paola A. & Avila Forero, Raúl A., 2013. "Elasticidades de demanda por electricidad e impactos macroecon_omicos del precio de la energía eléctrica en Colombia || Elasticity of Electricity Demand and Macroeconomics Impacts of Electricity Price," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 16(1), pages 216-249, December.
    8. C. Baumeister & G. Peersman, 2008. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/515, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    9. Sugra Ingilab Humbatova & Natig Qadim-Oglu Hajiyev, 2019. "Oil Factor in Economic Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-40, April.
    10. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Pitfalls in Estimating Asymmetric Effects of Energy Price Shocks," 2009 Meeting Papers 473, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Lutz Kilian & Clara Vega, 2008. "Do energy prices respond to U.S. macroeconomic news? a test of the hypothesis of predetermined energy prices," International Finance Discussion Papers 957, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Kilian, Lutz & Edelstein, Paul, 2007. "The Response of Business Fixed Investment to Changes in Energy Prices: A Test of Some Hypotheses About the Transmission of Ener," CEPR Discussion Papers 6507, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca, 2008. "The impact of oil price shocks: Evidence from the industries of six OECD countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3095-3108, November.
    14. Beltrán, Allan & Alatorre, José Eduardo & Ferrer, Jimy & Galindo, Luis Miguel, 2017. "Efectos potenciales de un impuesto al carbono sobre el producto interno bruto en los países de América Latina: estimaciones preliminares e hipotéticas a partir de un metaanálisis y una función de tran," Documentos de Proyectos 41867, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    15. Kilian, Lutz, 2008. "Why Does Gasoline Cost so Much? A Joint Model of the Global Crude Oil Market and the U.S. Retail Gasoline Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6919, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Bill Dupor & M. Saif Mehkari & Rong Li & Yi-Chan Tsai, 2019. "The 2008 US Auto Market Collapse," 2019 Meeting Papers 66, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Kilian, Lutz & Davis, Lucas W, 2009. "Estimating the Effect of a Gasoline Tax on Carbon Emissions," CEPR Discussion Papers 7161, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. John Baffes & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocker, 2015. "The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," Policy Research Notes (PRNs) 94725, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael J. Lamla & Sarah Lein, 2010. "The Euro Cash Changeover, Inflation Perceptions and the Media," KOF Working papers 10-254, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    2. Rossi, Barbara & Inoue, Atsushi & Anderson, Emily, 2013. "Heterogeneous Consumers and Fiscal Policy Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 9631, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Eda Gulsen & Hakan Kara, 2020. "Formation of inflation expectations: Does macroeconomic and policy environment matter?," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2017, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    4. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2010. "Imperfect Information and Aggregate Supply," NBER Working Papers 15773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. MURASAWA Yasutomo, 2010. "Measuring Inflation Expectations Using Interval-Coded Data," ESRI Discussion paper series 236, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    6. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2010. "Do Expectations Matter? The Great Moderation Revisited," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 183-205, July.
    7. Yavari, Kazem & Najjarzade, Reza & Tavakolian, Hossein & Bahador, Ali, 2016. "Effect of Nominal Exchange Rate Volatility on Output in Iran’s Economy," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 11(4), pages 419-442, October.
    8. Olivier Armantier & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2015. "Inflation Expectations And Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act On Their Beliefs?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(2), pages 505-536, May.
    9. Carrera, César, 2012. "Estimating Information Rigidity using Firms’ Survey Data," Working Papers 2012-004, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    10. Menz, Jan-Oliver & Poppitz, Philipp, 2013. "Households' disagreement on inflation expectations and socioeconomic media exposure in Germany," Discussion Papers 27/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Gbaguidi, David, 2012. "La courbe de Phillips : temps d’arbitrage et/ou arbitrage de temps," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(1), pages 87-119, mars.
    12. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
    13. Kilian, Lutz, 2011. "Structural Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8515, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

  83. Diebold, F.X. & Kilian, L. & Nerlove, Marc, 2006. "Time Series Analysis," Working Papers 28556, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Jeremy Berkowitz & Ionel Birgean & Lutz Kilian, 1999. "On the finite-sample accuracy of nonparametric resampling algorithms for economic time series," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Diana COCONOIU & Elena BUGUDUI, 2012. "Using Dynamic Series of Moments for Economic Analysis," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 60(4), pages 94-97, November.
    3. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, "undated". "Measuring Predictability: Theory and Macroeconomic Applications," CARESS Working Papres 97-19, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
    4. Thabo M. Mokoena & Gupta, R. & Van Eyden, R., 2009. "Half-Life Deviations from PPP in the South African Development Community (SADC)," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
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    7. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Bootstrapping Autoregressive Processes with Possible Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 377-391, January.
    8. Daniel Grabowski & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2020. "Skewness-adjusted bootstrap confidence intervals and confidence bands for impulse response functions," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 104(1), pages 5-32, March.
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    10. Quinton Morris & Gary Van Vuuren & Paul Styger, 2009. "Further Evidence Of Long Memory In The South African Stock Market," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(1), pages 81-101, March.
    11. Brüggemann, Ralf, 2006. "Finite sample properties of impulse response intervals in SVECMs with long-run identifying restrictions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2006-021, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    12. Monika Blaszkiewicz-Schwartzman, 2007. "Explaining Exchange Rate Movements in New Member States of the European Union: Nominal and Real Convergence," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 144, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    13. Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Luminita Madalina CALOTA, 2016. "Statistical-econometric model used in performance analysis of the company," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(10), pages 33-40, October.
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    15. Nyankori, James Cyprian Okuk & Wabukawo, Veronica & Sakyi-Dawson, Esther & Sefa-Dedeh, Sam, 2002. "Product Life Cycle Model Of Cowpea Based Products In Ghana," Working Papers 18803, Clemson University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K, 2013. "Quantifying the Speculative Component in the Real Price of Oil: The Role of Global Oil Inventories," CEPR Discussion Papers 9297, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Bataa, Erdenebat & Park, Cheolbeom, 2017. "Is the recent low oil price attributable to the shale revolution?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 72-82.
    3. Ing-Haw Cheng & Wei Xiong, 2014. "Financialization of Commodity Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 419-441, December.
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    5. Imran Shah, 2012. "Revisiting the Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shock on Small Developing Economies," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 12/626, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    6. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Is there a homogeneous causality pattern between oil prices and currencies of oil importers and exporters?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 665-678.
    7. Barnichon, Regis & Mesters, Geert, 2019. "Identifying Modern Macro Equations with Old Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 13765, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Lombardi, Marco J. & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2010. "Global commodity cycles and linkages a FAVAR approach," Working Paper Series 1170, European Central Bank.
    9. Dash, Devi Prasad & Sethi, Narayan & Bal, Debi Prasad, 2018. "Is the demand for crude oil inelastic for India? Evidence from structural VAR analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 552-558.
    10. Dominik Bertsche & Robin Braun, 2018. "Identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions by Stochastic Volatility," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2018-03, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    11. Dimitrios Bakas & Athanasios Triantafyllou, 2018. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on the Volatility of Commodity Prices," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2018/02, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
    12. Mr. Ron Alquist & Mr. Olivier Coibion, 2013. "The Comovement in Commodity Prices: Sources and Implications," IMF Working Papers 2013/140, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Mohanty, Sunil K. & Nandha, Mohan & Turkistani, Abdullah Q. & Alaitani, Muhammed Y., 2011. "Oil price movements and stock market returns: Evidence from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 42-55.
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    53. Valérie Mignon & Jamel Saadaoui, 2023. "Asymmetries in the oil market: Accounting for the growing role of China through quantile regressions," Post-Print hal-04435770, HAL.
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    2. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2008. "Forecasting economic time series using targeted predictors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 304-317, October.
    3. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2005. "Do Macro Variables, Asset Markets or Surveys Forecast Inflation Better?," NBER Working Papers 11538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Eric Hillebrand & Tae-Hwy Lee & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2012. "Let's Do It Again: Bagging Equity Premium Predictors," CREATES Research Papers 2012-41, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    5. Ina Nurmalia Kurniati, 2015. "Forecasting Growth Of Third Party Funds," Working Papers WP/10/2015, Bank Indonesia.
    6. Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Forecast Combination With Entry and Exit of Experts," CREATES Research Papers 2008-55, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    7. Gloria González-Rivera & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2007. "Nonlinear Time Series in Financial Forecasting," Working Papers 200803, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2008.
    8. Cheng, Xu & Hansen, Bruce E., 2015. "Forecasting with factor-augmented regression: A frequentist model averaging approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 280-293.
    9. Clements, Michael P & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2006. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data : Forecasting US output growth and inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 773, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    10. Eric Hillebrand & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2012. "Stein-Rule Estimation and Generalized Shrinkage Methods for Forecasting Using Many Predictors," CREATES Research Papers 2012-18, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    11. Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise & Josine Uwilingiye, 2011. "Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Predictability in South Africa: Evidence from a Large Number of Predictors," Working Papers 201122, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. Lee, Tae-Hwy & Yang, Yang, 2006. "Bagging binary and quantile predictors for time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 465-497.
    13. Kim, Hyun Hak & Swanson, Norman R., 2014. "Forecasting financial and macroeconomic variables using data reduction methods: New empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 352-367.
    14. Francesco Audrino & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2008. "Smooth Regimes, Macroeconomic Variables, and Bagging for the Short-Term Interest Rate Process," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2008 2008-16, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.

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    1. Rebeca Jimenez-Rodriguez & Marcelo Sanchez, 2009. "Oil shocks and the macro-economy: a comparison across high oil price periods," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(16), pages 1633-1638.
    2. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Are oil shocks permanent or temporary? Panel data evidence from crude oil and NGL production in 60 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 919-936, May.
    3. Kilian, Lutz & Lewis, Logan, 2009. "Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7594, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Mora Barrenechea, Mauricio, 2020. "Time-varying effects of commodities prices in the Bolivian economy," MPRA Paper 104706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Sekine, Toshitaka, 2009. "Another look at global disinflation," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 220-239, June.
    6. Svetlana Maslyuk & Russell Smyth, 2007. "Unit Root Properties of Crude Oil Spot and Futures Prices," Monash Economics Working Papers 40-07, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    7. Joseph Ayoola Omojolaibi, 2013. "Does Volatility in Crude Oil Price Precipitate Macroeconomic Performance in Nigeria?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(2), pages 143-152.
    8. Maslyuk, Svetlana & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Non-linear unit root properties of crude oil production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 109-118, January.
    9. Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2005. "Oil Prices, Inflation and Interest Rates in a Structural Cointegrated VAR Model for the G-7 Countries," International Energy Markets Working Papers 12110, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    10. Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 7324, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Anton Nakov & Andrea Pescatori, 2010. "Oil and the Great Moderation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(543), pages 131-156, March.
    12. Pascal Jacquinot & Mika Kuismanen & Ricardo Mestre & Martin Spitzer, 2009. "An Assessment of the Inflationary Impact of Oil Shocks in the Euro Area," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 49-84.
    13. Anton Nakov & Andrea Pescatori, 2007. "Inflation-output gap trade-off with a dominant oil supplier," Working Papers (Old Series) 0710, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    14. Abimelech Paye Gbatu & Zhen Wang & Presley K. Wesseh, Jr & Isaac Yak Repha Tutdel, 2017. "Asymmetric and Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Evidence from a Panel of Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 1-13.
    15. Nezir Kose & Sabit Baimaganbetov, 2015. "The Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Kazakhstan Macroeconomic Dynamics: A Structural Vector Autoregression Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(4), pages 1058-1064.
    16. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2007. "The industrial impact of oil price shocks: Evidence from the industries of six OECD countries," Working Papers 0731, Banco de España.
    17. Lomonosov, Daniil & Polbin, Andrey & Fokin, Nikita, 2020. "Влияние Шоков Мировой Деловой Активности, Предложения Нефти И Спекулятивных Нефтяных Шоков На Экономику Рф [The impact of global economic activity, oil supply and speculative oil shocks on the Russ," MPRA Paper 106019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. M. Angeles Caraballo & Carlos Usabiaga, 2009. "The relevance of supply shocks for inflation: the spanish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 753-764.
    19. Lutz Kilian, 2006. "Understanding the effects of exogenous oil supply shocks," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 7(02), pages 21-27, July.
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    530. Shekar Shetty & Zahid Iqbal & Mansour Alshamali, 2013. "Energy Price Shocks and Economic Activity in Texas Cities," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 41(4), pages 371-383, December.
    531. Wei, Yanfeng & Guo, Xiaoying, 2016. "An empirical analysis of the relationship between oil prices and the Chinese macro-economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 88-100.
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    536. NIDHALEDDINE BEN CHEIKH & SAMI BEN NACEUR & OUSSAMA KANAAN & Christophe RAULT, 2019. "Oil Prices and GCC Stock Markets: New Evidence from Vector Smooth Transition Models," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2697, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
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    540. Balashova, Svetlana & Serletis, Apostolos, 2020. "Oil prices shocks and the Russian economy," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    541. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Li, Zhao-Chen, 2021. "Forecasting the stock returns of Chinese oil companies: Can investor attention help?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 531-555.
    542. Sergio González & Edwin Hernández, 2016. "Indirect impacts of oil prices on economic growth in Colombia," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 84, pages 103-141, Enero - J.
    543. Alessia Campolmi, 2008. "Oil price shocks: Demand vs Supply in a two-country model," MNB Working Papers 2008/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    544. Abdollahi, Hooman & Ebrahimi, Seyed Babak, 2020. "A new hybrid model for forecasting Brent crude oil price," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    545. Yan Xia & Ying Fan & Jie Wu, 2013. "Analysis Of Low-Carbon Production Chains Towards China'Sco2emission Reduction Targets For 2020," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 58(03), pages 1-18.
    546. Cuce, Erdem & Cuce, Pinar Mert & Wood, Christopher J. & Riffat, Saffa B., 2014. "Toward aerogel based thermal superinsulation in buildings: A comprehensive review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 273-299.
    547. Tokuo IWAISAKO & Hayato NAKATA, 2016. "Impacts of Oil Shocks on Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Variables: A multi-country analysis," Discussion papers 16039, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    548. Suleyman ACIKALIN & Erginbay UGURLU, 2014. "Oil Price Fluctuations and Trade Balance of Turkey," International Conference on Economic Sciences and Business Administration, Spiru Haret University, vol. 1(1), pages 6-13, December.
    549. Rafiq, M.S., 2011. "The optimality of a gulf currency union: Commonalities and idiosyncrasies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 728-740.
    550. Jaehyung An & Alexey Mikhaylov & Nikita Moiseev, 2019. "Oil Price Predictors: Machine Learning Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(5), pages 1-6.
    551. Ziadat, Salem Adel & McMillan, David G. & Herbst, Patrick, 2022. "Oil shocks and equity returns during bull and bear markets: The case of oil importing and exporting nations," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    552. Chen, Yixiang & Ma, Feng & Zhang, Yaojie, 2019. "Good, bad cojumps and volatility forecasting: New evidence from crude oil and the U.S. stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 52-62.
    553. Kilian, Lutz, 2010. "Oil price volatility: Origins and effects," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2010-02, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    554. Stefan Petry, 2018. "Mandatory Worker Representation on the Board and Its Effect on Shareholder Wealth," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 47(1), pages 25-54, March.
    555. Walid Chkili, 2015. "Gold–oil prices co-movements and portfolio diversification implications," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2832-2845.
    556. Aastveit, Knut Are, 2014. "Oil price shocks in a data-rich environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 268-279.
    557. Mazur, Christoph & Hoegerle, Yannick & Brucoli, Maria & van Dam, Koen & Guo, Miao & Markides, Christos N. & Shah, Nilay, 2019. "A holistic resilience framework development for rural power systems in emerging economies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 219-232.
    558. Yang, Tianle & Zhou, Fangxing & Du, Min & Du, Qunyang & Zhou, Shirong, 2023. "Fluctuation in the global oil market, stock market volatility, and economic policy uncertainty: A study of the US and China," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 377-387.
    559. Yushi Xu & Baifan Chen & Jionghao Huang & Qingsha Hu & Shuning Kong, 2024. "Time–frequency connectedness between heterogeneous oil price shocks and inflation: a comparative analysis of developed and emerging economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 1-42, December.
    560. Arshad, Ameena & Zakaria, Muhammad & Junyang, Xi, 2016. "Energy prices and economic growth in Pakistan: A macro-econometric analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 25-33.
    561. Fan, Wenrui & Wang, Zanxin, 2022. "Whether to abandon or continue the petroleum product price regulation in China？," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    562. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2012. "Identifying Structural Vector Autoregressions via Changes in Volatility," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1259, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    563. Molyneaux, Lynette & Brown, Colin & Foster, John & Wagner, Liam, 2016. "Resilience, coal and the macroeconomy," MPRA Paper 74516, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  88. Kilian, Lutz & Inoue, Atsushi, 2004. "Bagging Time Series Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 4333, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Francisco Dias & Maximiano Pinheiro & António Rua, 2010. "Forecasting using targeted diffusion indexes," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 341-352.
    2. Michael McAleer & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros, 2010. "Forecasting Realized Volatility with Linear and Nonlinear Models," Textos para discussão 568, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    3. Chao Liang & Yi Zhang & Yaojie Zhang, 2022. "Forecasting the volatility of the German stock market: New evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(9), pages 1055-1070, February.
    4. Kilian, Lutz & Alquist, Ron & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 8388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Peng, Lijuan & Liang, Chao & Yang, Baoying & Wang, Lu, 2024. "Crude oil volatility forecasting: Insights from a novel time-varying parameter GARCH-MIDAS model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    6. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Kapetanios, George & Carriero, Andrea, 2009. "Forecasting Large Datasets with Bayesian Reduced Rank Multivariate Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 7446, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009. "In-sample tests of predictive ability: a new approach," Research Working Paper RWP 09-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    8. Eric Hillebrand & Marcelo Medeiros, 2010. "The Benefits of Bagging for Forecast Models of Realized Volatility," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5-6), pages 571-593.
    9. Eric Hillebrand & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros, 2007. "Forecasting realized volatility models:the benefits of bagging and nonlinear specifications," Textos para discussão 547, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    10. Meira, Erick & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz & Jeon, Jooyoung, 2021. "Treating and Pruning: New approaches to forecasting model selection and combination using prediction intervals," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 547-568.
    11. Jin, Daxiang & Yu, Jize, 2023. "Predicting cryptocurrency market volatility: Novel evidence from climate policy uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    12. Feng Ma & Chao Liang & Yuanhui Ma & M.I.M. Wahab, 2020. "Cryptocurrency volatility forecasting: A Markov regime‐switching MIDAS approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(8), pages 1277-1290, December.
    13. Liu, Na & Gao, Fumin, 2022. "The world uncertainty index and GDP growth rate," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    14. Chao Liang & Yu Wei & Likun Lei & Feng Ma, 2022. "Global equity market volatility forecasting: New evidence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 594-609, January.
    15. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    16. Francesco Audrino & Kameliya Filipova, 2009. "Yield Curve Predictability, Regimes, and Macroeconomic Information: A Data-Driven Approach," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2009 2009-10, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    17. Francesco Audrino & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2011. "Modeling and forecasting short‐term interest rates: The benefits of smooth regimes, macroeconomic variables, and bagging," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 999-1022, September.
    18. Andrea Carriero & George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2007. "Forecasting Large Datasets with Reduced Rank Multivariate Models," Working Papers 617, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    19. Dantas, Tiago Mendes & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz, 2018. "Improving time series forecasting: An approach combining bootstrap aggregation, clusters and exponential smoothing," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 748-761.
    20. Pedro Henrique Melo Albuquerque & Yaohao Peng & João Pedro Fontoura da Silva, 2022. "Making the whole greater than the sum of its parts: A literature review of ensemble methods for financial time series forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(8), pages 1701-1724, December.
    21. Feng Ma & Xinjie Lu & Lu Wang & Julien Chevallier, 2021. "Global economic policy uncertainty and gold futures market volatility: Evidence from Markov regime‐switching GARCH‐MIDAS models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1070-1085, September.
    22. Luo, Qin & Bu, Jinfeng & Xu, Weiju & Huang, Dengshi, 2023. "Stock market volatility prediction: Evidence from a new bagging model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 445-456.
    23. Francesco Audrino & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2008. "Smooth Regimes, Macroeconomic Variables, and Bagging for the Short-Term Interest Rate Process," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2008 2008-16, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    24. Wang, Jiqian & Huang, Yisu & Ma, Feng & Chevallier, Julien, 2020. "Does high-frequency crude oil futures data contain useful information for predicting volatility in the US stock market? New evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).

  89. Silvia Gonçalves & Lutz Kilian, 2003. "Asymptotic and Bootstrap Inference for AR( Infinite ) Processes with Conditional Heteroskedasticity," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-28, CIRANO.

    Cited by:

    1. Tommaso Proietti & Alessandro Giovannelli, 2017. "A Durbin-Levinson Regularized Estimator of High Dimensional Autocovariance Matrices," CEIS Research Paper 410, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 19 Jul 2017.
    2. Kilian, Lutz & Gonçalves, Sílvia, 2002. "Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,26, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Bauer, Dietmar, 2009. "Estimating ARMAX systems for multivariate time series using the state approach to subspace algorithms," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 397-421, March.
    4. Xu, Ke-Li & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2008. "Adaptive estimation of autoregressive models with time-varying variances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 265-280, January.
    5. Serguei Zernov & Victoria Zindle-Walsh & John Galbraith, 2006. "Asymptotics For Estimation Of Truncated Infinite-Dimensional Quantile Regressions," Departmental Working Papers 2006-16, McGill University, Department of Economics.
    6. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Anders Rahbek & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2009. "Co-integration rank tests under conditional heteroskedasticity," Discussion Papers 09/02, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.

  90. Kilian, Lutz & Manganelli, Simone, 2003. "The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Quantifying and Forecasting Inflation Risks," CEPR Discussion Papers 3918, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Keith Kuester & Volker W. Wieland, 2008. "Insurance policies for monetary policy in the euro area," Working Papers 08-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2008. "Monitoring and Forecasting Currency Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2‐3), pages 523-534, March.
    3. Marco Vega, 2004. "Policy Makers Priors and Inflation Density Forecasts," Econometrics 0403005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2004. "Forecasting with a Bayesian DSGE Model: An Application to the Euro Area," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 841-867, November.
    5. Lutz Kilian & Simone Manganelli, 2007. "Quantifying the Risk of Deflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 561-590, March.
    6. Vitor Gaspar, 2003. "The conduct of monetary policy under uncertainty," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 249-264.
    7. D. Sornette & W. -X. Zhou, 2003. "Evidence of Fueling of the 2000 New Economy Bubble by Foreign Capital Inflow: Implications for the Future of the US Economy and its Stock Market," Papers cond-mat/0306496, arXiv.org.

  91. Silvia Gonçalves & Lutz Kilian, 2003. "Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-17, CIRANO.

    Cited by:

    1. Mario Alloza, 2017. "Is fiscal policy more effective in uncertain times or during recessions?," Working Papers 1730, Banco de España.
    2. Özen, Kadir & Yıldırım, Dilem, 2021. "Application of bagging in day-ahead electricity price forecasting and factor augmentation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    3. Huang, Wenyang & Wang, Yizhi, 2024. "Identifying price bubbles in global carbon markets: Evidence from the SADF test, GSADF test and LPPLS method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    4. Li, Muyi & Zhang, Yanfen, 2022. "Bootstrapping multivariate portmanteau tests for vector autoregressive models with weak assumptions on errors," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    5. Giuseppe Cavaliere & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2009. "Bootstrap M Unit Root Tests," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 393-421.
    6. H. Peter Boswijk & Giuseppe Cavaliere & Anders Rahbek & A.M. Robert Taylor, 2013. "Inference on Co-integration Parameters in Heteroskedastic Vector Autoregressions," Discussion Papers 13-13, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    7. Nobay, A. Robert & Paya, Ivan & Peel, David A., 2007. "Inflation dynamics in the US - a nonlinear perspective," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24499, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Rüdiger Bachmann & Sebastian K. Rüth, 2020. "Systematic Monetary Policy And The Macroeconomic Effects Of Shifts In Residential Loan‐To‐Value Ratios," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(2), pages 503-530, May.
    9. Dominik Bertsche & Robin Braun, 2018. "Identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions by Stochastic Volatility," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2018-03, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    10. Maxime Phillot & Samuel Reynard, 2021. "Monetary policy financial transmission and treasury liquidity premia," Working Papers 2021-14, Swiss National Bank.
    11. Carter, Colin A & Rausser, Gordon C & Smith, Aaron, 2017. "Commodity Storage and the Market Effects of Biofuel Policies," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt61t114zb, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    12. Ke Zhu, 2018. "Statistical inference for autoregressive models under heteroscedasticity of unknown form," Papers 1804.02348, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2018.
    13. Andrews, Donald W.K. & Guggenberger, Patrik, 2012. "Asymptotics for LS, GLS, and feasible GLS statistics in an AR(1) model with conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 196-210.
    14. Abhay Abhyankar, Bing Xu, and Jiayue Wang, 2013. "Oil Price Shocks and the Stock Market: Evidence from Japan," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    15. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2001. "Evaluating long-horizon forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 01-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    16. Mankart, Jochen & Priftis, Romanos & Oikonomou, Rigas, 2024. "The long and short of financing government spending," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302414, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. Baglan, Deniz & Ege Yazgan, M. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2016. "Relative price variability and inflation: New evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 263-282.
    18. Nedeljkovic, Milan, 2008. "Testing for Smooth Transition Nonlinearity in Adjustments of Cointegrating Systems," Economic Research Papers 269887, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    19. Gao, Liping & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Saba, Richard, 2014. "How Do Oil Price Shocks Affect Consumer Prices?," MPRA Paper 57259, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Kilian, Lutz & Lewis, Logan, 2009. "Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7594, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Désirée I Christofzik & Steffen Elstner, 2021. "International spillover effects of U.S. tax reforms: evidence from Germany," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(2), pages 578-600.
    22. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2016. "The impact of oil price shocks on the U.S. stock market: A note on the roles of U.S. and non-U.S. oil production," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 176-181.
    23. Jae H. Kim & Philip I. Ji, 2004. "International linkage of real interest rates: the case of East Asian countries," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 124, Econometric Society.
    24. Yang Hu, 2023. "A review of Phillips‐type right‐tailed unit root bubble detection tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 141-158, February.
    25. Jonas E. Arias & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2018. "Inference in Bayesian Proxy-SVARs," Working Papers 18-25/R, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    26. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Joint Confidence Sets for Structural Impulse Responses," CESifo Working Paper Series 5746, CESifo.
    27. Miles Parker & Benjamin Wong, 2014. "Exchange rate and commodity price pass‐through in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2014/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    28. Mehmet Balcilar & George Ike & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty in Predicting Output Growth in Emerging Markets: A Mixed-Frequency Granger Causality Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(4), pages 1008-1026, March.
    29. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2011. "Testing For Unit Roots In The Presence Of A Possible Break In Trend And Nonstationary Volatility," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(5), pages 957-991, October.
    30. Stéphane Dées & Jochen Güntner, 2014. "Analysing and forecasting price dynamics across euro area countries and sectors: A panel VAR approach," Economics working papers 2014-10, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    31. Ruiqi Tan & Wei Dai, 2024. "Oil Price Shocks and the Canadian Stock Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-14, November.
    32. Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6559, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    33. Rüth, Sebastian K. & Simon, Camilla, 2022. "How do income and the debt position of households propagate fiscal stimulus into consumption?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    34. Cretí, Anna & Joëts, Marc, 2017. "Multiple bubbles in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 119-130.
    35. Benjamin Wong, 2015. "Do Inflation Expectations Propagate the Inflationary Impact of Real Oil Price Shocks?: Evidence from the Michigan Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1673-1689, December.
    36. Russell Davidson & Victoria Zinde‐Walsh, 2017. "Advances in specification testing," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(5), pages 1595-1631, December.
    37. Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Sweidan, Osama D., 2020. "Do structural shocks in the crude oil market affect biofuel prices?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 183-193.
    38. Kilian, Lutz & Inoue, Atsushi, 2005. "How Useful is Bagging in Forecasting Economic Time Series? A Case Study of US CPI Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 5304, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    39. Daiki Maki, 2015. "Wild bootstrap tests for unit root in ESTAR models," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 24(3), pages 475-490, September.
    40. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhang, Xiaotong & Li, Tingyu, 2023. "Forecasting stock return volatility in data-rich environment: A new powerful predictor," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    41. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Byoungchan Lee, 2017. "A Note on Variance Decomposition with Local Projections," NBER Working Papers 23998, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    42. Erdenebat Bataa & Dong H. Kim & Denise R. Osborn, 2007. "Expectations Hypothesis Tests in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Discussion Paper Series 0703, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    43. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Macroeconomics and ARCH," NBER Working Papers 14151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    44. Soo-Bin Jeong & Bong-Hwan Kim & Tae-Hwan Kim & Hyung-Ho Moon, 2017. "Unit Root Tests In The Presence Of Multiple Breaks In Variance," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(02), pages 345-361, June.
    45. Klaus Grobys, 2015. "Size distortions of the wild bootstrapped HCCME-based LM test for serial correlation in the presence of asymmetric conditional heteroskedasticity," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1189-1202, May.
    46. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Gabriel Zsurkis, 2019. "A reexamination of inflation persistence dynamics in OECD countries: A new approach," Working Papers w201909, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    47. Hussain, Syed M. & Malik, Samreen, 2016. "Asymmetric Effects of Exogenous Tax Changes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 268-300.
    48. Bastianin, Andrea & Manera, Matteo, 2018. "How Does Stock Market Volatility React To Oil Price Shocks?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 666-682, April.
    49. Lee, Taewook, 2016. "Wild bootstrap Ljung–Box test for cross correlations of multivariate time series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 59-62.
    50. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & A.M. Robert Taylor, 2014. "Bootstrap Score Tests for Fractional Integration in Heteroskedastic ARFIMA Models, with an Application to Price Dynamics in Commodity Spot and Futures Markets," CREATES Research Papers 2014-22, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    51. Papapostolou, Nikos C. & Pouliasis, Panos K. & Nomikos, Nikos K. & Kyriakou, Ioannis, 2016. "Shipping investor sentiment and international stock return predictability," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 81-94.
    52. Steffen Elstner & Lars P. Feld & Christoph M. Schmidt, 2018. "The German Productivity Paradox - Facts and Explanations," CESifo Working Paper Series 7231, CESifo.
    53. Russell Davidson & James Mackinnon, 2006. "Improving the reliability of bootstrap tests with the fast double bootstrap," Working Papers halshs-00439247, HAL.
    54. Erdenebat Bataa & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier & Dick van Dijk, 2009. "Changes in International Business Cycle Affiliations," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 132, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    55. Dunbar, Kwamie, 2022. "Impact of the COVID-19 event on U.S. banks’ financial soundness," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    56. Ma, Chaoqun & Tian, Yonggang & Hsiao, Shisong & Deng, Liurui, 2022. "Monetary policy shocks and Bitcoin prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    57. Rüth, Sebastian K., 2018. "Fiscal stimulus and systematic monetary policy: Postwar evidence for the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 92-96.
    58. Jadidzadeh, Ali & Serletis, Apostolos, 2017. "How does the U.S. natural gas market react to demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 66-74.
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    2. Wright, Jonathan H., 2019. "Some observations on forecasting and policy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1186-1192.
    3. Atsushi Inoue & Mototsugu Shintani, 2018. "Quasi‐Bayesian model selection," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(3), pages 1265-1297, November.
    4. Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    5. Kathryn Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2005. "What Defines "News" in Foreign Exchange Markets?," NBER Working Papers 11769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Kuzin, Vladimir N. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009. "Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: an application to German GDP," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013. "Changes in predictive ability with mixed frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 395-410.
    8. Filip Staněk, 2023. "Optimal out‐of‐sample forecast evaluation under stationarity," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(8), pages 2249-2279, December.
    9. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "International Financial Adjustment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(4), pages 665-703, August.
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    2. Libero Monteforte, 2004. "Aggregation bias in macro models: does it matter foir the euro area?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 534, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    4. Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2003. "What is this thing called confidence? A comparative analysis of consumer confidence indices in eight major countries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 484, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. David Genesove & James Hansen, 2014. "Predicting Dwelling Prices with Consideration of the Sales Mechanism," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2014-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Ayinde, Taofeek O. & Olaniran, Abeeb O. & Abolade, Onomeabure C. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula Ephraim, 2023. "Technology shocks - Gold market connection: Is the effect episodic to business cycle behaviour?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    7. Pablo Pincheira, 2008. "Combining Tests of Predictive Ability Theory and Evidence for Chilean and Canadian Exchange Rates," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 459, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2013. "Forecasting Crude Oil Price Movements with Oil-Sensitive Stocks," MPRA Paper 49240, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Peter Congdon, 2022. "A Model for Highly Fluctuating Spatio-Temporal Infection Data, with Applications to the COVID Epidemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-17, May.
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    22. Todd E. Clark, 2004. "Can out-of-sample forecast comparisons help prevent overfitting?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 115-139.
    23. Giampiero M. Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2012. "Realized Volatility and Change of Regimes," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2012_02, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", revised Jul 2012.
    24. Kang, Jangkoo & Kim, Tong Suk & Lee, Changjun & Min, Byoung-Kyu, 2011. "Macroeconomic risk and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3158-3173.
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    26. Schrimpf, Andreas, 2008. "International Stock Return Predictability Under Model Uncertainty," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-048, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    27. Miguel A. Ferreira & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2008. "Forecasting Stock Market Returns: The Sum of the Parts is More than the Whole," NBER Working Papers 14571, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Kirstin Hubrich & Kenneth D. West, 2008. "Forecast Evaluation of Small Nested Model Sets," NBER Working Papers 14601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Qing Zhou & Robert Faff, 2017. "The complementary role of cross-sectional and time-series information in forecasting stock returns," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 42(1), pages 113-139, February.
    30. João Henrique G. Mazzeu & Gloria González-Rivera & Esther Ruiz & Helena Veiga, 2020. "A bootstrap approach for generalized Autocontour testing Implications for VIX forecast densities," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(10), pages 971-990, November.
    31. Romulo A. Chumacero, 2004. "Forecasting Chilean Industrial Production with Automated Procedures," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 177, Econometric Society.
    32. Zachary McGurk & Adam Nowak & Joshua C. Hall, 2019. "Stock Returns and Investor Sentiment: Textual Analysis and Social Media," Working Papers 19-03, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    33. Daniel L. Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2009. "Revisiting the predictability of bond risk premia," Working Papers 2009-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    34. C. N. V. Krishnan & Peter H. Ritchken & James B. Thomson, 2007. "On forecasting the term structure of credit spreads," Working Papers (Old Series) 0705, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    35. Ralph S.J. Koijen & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2011. "Predictability of Returns and Cash Flows," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 467-491, December.
    36. Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch & Andrew J. Vivian & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "The Predictive Value of Inequality Measures for Stock Returns: An Analysis of Long-Span UK Data Using Quantile Random Forests," Working Papers 201809, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    37. Nitschka, Thomas, 2006. "The U.S. consumption-wealth ratio and foreign stock markets: International evidence for return predictability," Technical Reports 2006,11, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    38. Steven J. Jordan & Andrew Vivian & Mark E. Wohar, 2015. "Location, location, location: currency effects and return predictability?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(18), pages 1883-1898, April.
    39. Hambuckers, J. & Ulm, M., 2023. "On the role of interest rate differentials in the dynamic asymmetry of exchange rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    40. David R. Haab & Thomas Nitschka, 2019. "What Goliaths and Davids among Swiss firms tell us about expected returns on Swiss asset markets," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-17, December.
    41. Calhoun, Gray, 2014. "Out-Of-Sample Comparisons of Overfit Models," Staff General Research Papers Archive 32462, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    42. Kasai, Ndahiriwe & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2011. "Evaluating the forecasting performance of linear and nonlinear monetary policy rules for South Africa," MPRA Paper 40699, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    43. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2003. "On the selection of forecasting models," Working Paper Series 214, European Central Bank.
    44. Mohamad B. Karaki, 2018. "Asymmetries In The Responses Of Regional Job Flows To Oil Price Shocks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(3), pages 1827-1845, July.
    45. David E. Rapach & Matthew C. Ringgenberg & Guofu Zhou, 2016. "Short interest and aggregate stock returns," CEMA Working Papers 716, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
    46. Dai, Zhifeng & Chang, Xiaoming, 2021. "Forecasting stock market volatility: Can the risk aversion measure exert an important role?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    47. Kilian, Lutz & Alquist, Ron & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 8388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    48. Rogoff, Kenneth S. & Chen, Yu-Chin & Rossi, Barbara, 2010. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," Scholarly Articles 29412033, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    49. Brand, Claus & Reimers, Hans-Eggert & Seitz, Franz, 2003. "Forecasting real GDP: what role for narrow money?," Working Paper Series 254, European Central Bank.
    50. Wen, Danyan & He, Mengxi & Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2024. "Forecasting crude oil market volatility: A comprehensive look at uncertainty variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1022-1041.
    51. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2011. "Oil and US GDP: A Real-Time out-of Sample Examination," Working Papers No 2/2011, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    52. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2005. "Consumption, (Dis) Aggregate Wealth and Asset Returns," NIPE Working Papers 9/2005, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    53. Romulo A. Chumacero, 2004. "Forecasting Chilean Industrial Production and Sales with Automated Procedures," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 112, Society for Computational Economics.
    54. McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Canova, Fabio, 2002. "G-7 Inflation Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 3283, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Kronick, Jeremy, 2014. "Monetary Policy Shocks from the EU and US: Implications for Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 59416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Jonathan McCarthy & Egon Zakrajšek, 2003. "Inventory dynamics and business cycles: what has changed?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-26, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Gachoki Emilio Munene, 2023. "Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in Kenya: Empirical Analysis Using ARDL Approach," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 28(1), pages 115-126.
    5. Malik, M. Fahad & Awan, Dr Masood Sarwar & Malik, Dr Waseem Shahid, 2020. "Macroeconomic Shocks: Short-Run versus Long-Run Perspectives," MPRA Paper 99103, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Term structure of risk under alternative econometric specifications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 285-308.
    7. Zoë Venter, 2021. "Honing in on Housing," Working Papers REM 2021/0163, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    8. Mira Nurmakhanova, 2019. "Exchange Rate and Stock Prices Interactions in Kazakhstan," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 7(2), pages 19-31.
    9. Sheng, Mingyue & Sharp, Basil, 2019. "Aggregate road passenger travel demand in New Zealand: A seemingly unrelated regression approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 55-68.
    10. Kronick, Jeremy, 2015. "Do Loan-to-Value Ratio Regulation Changes Affect Canadian Mortgage Credit?," MPRA Paper 73671, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Mariarosaria Comunale & Heli Simola, 2016. "The Pass-Through to Consumer Prices in CIS Economies: the Role of Exchange Rates, Commodities and Other Common Factors," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 35, Bank of Lithuania.
    12. Staffa, Ruben Marek & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2023. "Fiscal policy under the eyes of wary bondholders," IWH Discussion Papers 26/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    13. Giovanni Razzu & Carl Singleton, 2013. "Are Business Cycles Gender Neutral?," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2013-07, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    14. Mailu, S.K. & Mulinge, W., 2016. "Excise tax changes and their impact on Gadam sorghum demand in Kenya," 2016 Fifth International Conference, September 23-26, 2016, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 246959, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).

  95. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Working Papers 8389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    1. Delle Chiaie, Simona & Ferrara, Laurent & Giannone, Domenico, 2018. "Common factors of commodity prices," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 51.
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    6. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2019. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates," Working Papers 1914, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    7. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Peter Hooper & Bruce C. Kasman & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Understanding the Evolving the Evolving Inflation Process," Working Papers 2007-4, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    8. Mr. Ron Alquist & Mr. Olivier Coibion, 2013. "The Comovement in Commodity Prices: Sources and Implications," IMF Working Papers 2013/140, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Eduardo Morales Ramos, 2009. "La evolución de la pobreza difusa multidimensional en México, 1994-2006," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 209-270, abril-jun.
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    13. Antonella Cavallo & Antonio Ribba, 2017. "Measuring the Effects of Oil Price and Euro-area Shocks on CEECs Business Cycles," Department of Economics 0111, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
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    10. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Is there a homogeneous causality pattern between oil prices and currencies of oil importers and exporters?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 665-678.
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    434. Nikolaos Mitianoudis & Theologos Dergiades, 2016. "Stock Prices Predictability at Long-horizons: Two Tales from the Time-Frequency Domain," Discussion Paper Series 2016_04, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Dec 2016.
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    439. Chang, Tsangyao & Lee, Chia-Hao, 2011. "Hysteresis in Unemployment for G-7 Countries: Threshold Unit Root Test," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-14, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yashiv, Eran, 2004. "The self selection of migrant workers revisited," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19933, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. J. F. Li & Z. X. Lin, 2016. "Social benefit expenditures and stagflation: evidence from the United States," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(55), pages 5340-5347, November.
    3. David Cronin, 2018. "US inflation and output since the 1970s: a P-star approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 567-591, March.
    4. Andrej Srakar & Marilena Vecco, 2017. "Ex-ante versus ex-post: comparison of the effects of the European Capital of Culture Maribor 2012 on tourism and employment," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 41(2), pages 197-214, May.
    5. Hofmann, Erik & Solakivi, Tomi & Töyli, Juuso & Zinn, Martin, 2018. "Oil price shocks and the financial performance patterns of logistics service providers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 290-306.
    6. Oladosu, Gbadebo, 2009. "Identifying the oil price-macroeconomy relationship: An empirical mode decomposition analysis of US data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5417-5426, December.

  98. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2000. "Bootstrapping Autoregressive Processes with Possible Unit Roots," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0401, Econometric Society.

    Cited by:

    1. Wendy Nyakabawo & Stephen M. Miller & Mehmet Balcilar & Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Temporal Causality between House Prices and Output in the U.S.: A Bootstrap Rolling-Window Approach," Working papers 2013-14, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    2. Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2008. "Sieve bootstrap t-tests on long-run average parameters," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 3354-3370, March.
    3. DUFOUR, Jean-Marie & JOUINI, Tarek, 2005. "Finite-Sample Simulation-Based Inference in VAR Models with Applications to Order Selection and Causality Testing," Cahiers de recherche 16-2005, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    4. Richard T. Baillie & George Kapetanios & Fotis Papailias, 2017. "Inference for impulse response coefficients from multivariate fractionally integrated processes," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1-3), pages 60-84, March.
    5. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, "undated". "Measuring Predictability: Theory and Macroeconomic Applications," CARESS Working Papres 97-19, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
    6. Kilian, Lutz & Gonçalves, Sílvia, 2002. "Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,26, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Schusser, Sandra & Jaraite, Jurate, 2016. "Explaining the Interplay of Three Markets: Green Certificates, Carbon Emissions and Electricity," CERE Working Papers 2016:10, CERE - the Center for Environmental and Resource Economics.
    8. Hwang, Eunju & Shin, Dong Wan, 2015. "Stationary bootstrapping for semiparametric panel unit root tests," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 14-25.
    9. Lopez, Claude & Murray, Chris & Papell, David, 2009. "Median-Unbiased Estimation in DF-GLS Regressions and the PPP Puzzle," MPRA Paper 26091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Quentin Giai Gianetto & Hamdi Raïssi, 2015. "Testing Instantaneous Causality in Presence of Nonconstant Unconditional Covariance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 46-53, January.
    11. Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Cakan, Esin, 2010. "The persistence in real exchange rate: Evidence from East Asian countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 891-895, September.
    12. Atsushi Inoue & `Oscar Jord`a & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2023. "Inference for Local Projections," Papers 2306.03073, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    13. Helmut Luetkepohl, 2011. "Vector Autoregressive Models," Economics Working Papers ECO2011/30, European University Institute.
    14. Park, Joon, 2003. "A Bootstrap Theory for Weakly Integrated Processes," Working Papers 2003-16, Rice University, Department of Economics.
    15. DUFOUR, Jean-Marie, 2005. "Monte Carlo Tests with Nuisance Parameters: A General Approach to Finite-Sample Inference and Nonstandard Asymptotics," Cahiers de recherche 2005-03, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    16. Claude Lopez & Christian J. Murray & David H. Papell, 2004. "State of the Art Unit Root Tests and Purchasing Power Parity," University of Cincinnati, Economics Working Papers Series 2004-04, University of Cincinnati, Department of Economics.
    17. Corradi, Valentina & Iglesias, Emma M., 2008. "Bootstrap refinements for QML estimators of the GARCH(1,1) parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 500-510, June.
    18. Bulat Gafarov & Madina Karamysheva & Andrey Polbin & Anton Skrobotov, 2024. "Wild inference for wild SVARs with application to heteroscedasticity-based IV," Papers 2407.03265, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    19. Kim, Jae H., 2003. "Forecasting autoregressive time series with bias-corrected parameter estimators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 493-502.
    20. Amilcar Velez, 2023. "The Local Projection Residual Bootstrap for AR(1) Models," Papers 2309.01889, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2025.
    21. Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2008. "Structural vector autoregressions: theory of identification and algorithms for inference," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2008-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    22. Kilian, Lutz & Baumeister, Christiane, 2013. "Do Oil Price Increases Cause Higher Food Prices?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Dong Jin Lee, 2021. "Bootstrap tests for structural breaks when the regressors and the serially correlated error term are unstable," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 212-229, April.
    24. Rossi, Barbara, 2005. "Confidence Intervals for Half-Life Deviations From Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 432-442, October.
    25. Daniel Grabowski & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2020. "Skewness-adjusted bootstrap confidence intervals and confidence bands for impulse response functions," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 104(1), pages 5-32, March.
    26. Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2005. "Reduced-Rank Identification of Structural Shocks in VARs," Macroeconomics 0512011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Pesavento, Elena, 2004. "Analytical evaluation of the power of tests for the absence of cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 349-384, October.
    28. Choi, In, 2005. "Inconsistency of bootstrap for nonstationary, vector autoregressive processes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 39-48, November.
    29. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Anders Rahbek & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2008. "Testing for Co-integration in Vector Autoregressions with Non-Stationary Volatility," Discussion Papers 08-34, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    30. van Giersbergen, Noud P. A., 2003. "A note on bootstrapping unit root tests in the presence of a non-zero drift," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 259-265, February.
    31. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Linda Tesar, 2005. "A Re-Examination of the Border Effect," Working Papers 546, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    32. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Arslanturk, Yalcin, 2010. "Economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1398-1410, November.
    33. Carlos Usabiaga & Diego Romero-Ávila, 2012. "New Disaggregate Evidence on Spanish Inflation Persistence," EcoMod2012 3800, EcoMod.
    34. Donald W. K. Andrews & Patrik Guggenberger, 2014. "A Conditional-Heteroskedasticity-Robust Confidence Interval for the Autoregressive Parameter," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(2), pages 376-381, May.
    35. Ruxandra Prodan, 2004. "Potential Pitfalls in Determining Multiple Structural Changes with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 90, Econometric Society.
    36. Bruggeman, Annick & Donati, Paola & Warne, Anders, 2003. "Is the demand for euro area M3 stable?," Working Paper Series 255, European Central Bank.
    37. Sevan Gulesserian & Mohitosh Kejriwal, 2014. "On the power of bootstrap tests for stationarity: a Monte Carlo comparison," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 973-998, May.
    38. Jui-Chung Yang & Ke-Li Xu, 2013. "Estimation and Inference under Weak Identi cation and Persistence: An Application on Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Reaction Function," 2013 Papers pya307, Job Market Papers.
    39. José Luis Montiel Olea & Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller, 2021. "Local Projection Inference Is Simpler and More Robust Than You Think," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(4), pages 1789-1823, July.
    40. Shin, Dong Wan & Hwang, Eunju, 2013. "Stationary bootstrapping for cointegrating regressions," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 474-480.
    41. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Jouini, Tarek, 2006. "Finite-sample simulation-based inference in VAR models with application to Granger causality testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 229-254.
    42. Pesavento, Elena & Rossi, Barbara, 2007. "Impulse response confidence intervals for persistent data: What have we learned?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2398-2412, July.
    43. Diego Romero-Ávila & Carlos Usabiaga, 2012. "Disaggregate evidence on Spanish inflation persistence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(23), pages 3029-3046, August.
    44. Omtzigt Pieter & Fachin Stefano, 2002. "Bootstrapping and Bartlett corrections in the cointegrated VAR model," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0212, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
    45. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Anders Rahbek & A.M.Robert Taylor, 2009. "Co-integration Rank Testing under Conditional Heteroskedasticity," CREATES Research Papers 2009-22, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    46. Murray, Christian J. & Papell, David H., 2002. "The purchasing power parity persistence paradigm," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19, January.
    47. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2019. "The Uniform Validity of Impulse Response Inference in Autoregressions," Working Papers 1908, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    48. Bob Nobay & Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2010. "Inflation Dynamics in the U.S.: Global but Not Local Mean Reversion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 135-150, February.
    49. Lieb, Lenard & Smeekes, Stephan, 2017. "Inference for Impulse Responses under Model Uncertainty," Research Memorandum 022, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
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    51. Kruse, Yves Robinson & Kaufmann, Hendrik, 2015. "Bias-corrected estimation in mildly explosive autoregressions," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112897, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
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    66. Gafarov, Bulat & Meier, Matthias & Montiel Olea, José Luis, 2018. "Delta-method inference for a class of set-identified SVARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 203(2), pages 316-327.
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    1. JamesR. Lothian & MarkP. Taylor, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries: How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1742-1763, October.
    2. Jesús Otero & Ana María Iregui, 2011. "The Long-Run Behaviour of the Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures: A Panel Data Approach," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2011-071, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Olivier Darné, 2004. "The effects of additive outliers on stationarity tests: a monte carlo study," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(16), pages 1-8.
    4. Kurozumi, Eiji, 2009. "Construction of Stationarity Tests with Less Size Distortions," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 50(1), pages 87-105, June.
    5. Michael Frömmel & Darko B. Vukovic & Jinyuan Wu, 2022. "The Dollar Exchange Rate, Adjustment to the Purchasing Power Parity, and the Interest Rate Differential," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(23), pages 1-17, November.
    6. DUFOUR, Jean-Marie & JOUINI, Tarek, 2005. "Finite-Sample Simulation-Based Inference in VAR Models with Applications to Order Selection and Causality Testing," Cahiers de recherche 16-2005, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    7. Francis W. Ahking, 2004. "The Power of the "Objective" Bayesian Unit-Root Test," Working papers 2004-14, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    8. Lutz Kilian, 2019. "Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling," CESifo Working Paper Series 7902, CESifo.
    9. Westerlund, Joakim, 2003. "A Panel CUSUM Test of the Null of Cointegration," Working Papers 2003:15, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    10. Jomana Amara, 2011. "Testing for stationarity using covariates: an application to purchasing power parity," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(13), pages 1295-1301.
    11. Kilian, L. & Zha, T., 1999. "Quantifying the Half-Life of Deviations from PPP: The Role of Economic Priors," Papers 99-08, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
    12. Ivan Paya & David Peel, 2005. "The process followed by PPP data. On the properties of linearity tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2515-2522.
    13. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Chan Tze Haw & A.Mansur M. Masih & Evan Lau, 2011. "Financial integration of East Asian economies: evidence from real interest parity," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(16), pages 1979-1990.
    14. Stefano Grassi & Tommaso Proietti, 2010. "Characterizing economic trends by Bayesian stochastic model specification search," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2010_25, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    15. Olivier Darné & Jean‐François Hoarau, 2007. "Further Evidence On Mean Reversion In The Australian Exchange Rate," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 383-395, October.
    16. Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt, 2004. "Unit Roots and Infrequent Large Shocks : New International Evidence on Output," Post-Print hal-00279015, HAL.
    17. Jiang, Bibo & Lu, Ye & Park, Joon Y., 2018. "Testing for Stationarity at High Frequency," Working Papers 2018-09, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    18. Mark J. Holmes & Theodore Panagiotidis & Jesus Otero, 2008. "Are EU budgets stationary?," Discussion Paper Series 2008_07, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Sep 2008.
    19. Njindan Iyke Bernard & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2015. "The Determinants of Long-run Real Exchange Rate in South Africa: A Fundamental Equilibrium Approach," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 319-336, September.
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    21. Ana Iregui & Jesús Otero, 2011. "Testing the law of one price in food markets: evidence for Colombia using disaggregated data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 269-284, April.
    22. Matteo Pelagatti & Emilio Colombo, 2012. "Unpuzzling the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Working Papers 221, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2012.
    23. Jesús Otero & Luis Fernando Gamboa & Andrés García-Suaza, 2011. "An analysis of the relationship between wages in the public and private sector in colombia: a panel data approach," Documentos de Trabajo 8738, Universidad del Rosario.
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    69. León-Ledesma, Miguel A. & McAdam, Peter, 2003. "Unemployment, hysteresis and transition," Working Paper Series 234, European Central Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Capistrán, Carlos & López-Moctezuma, Gabriel, 2014. "Forecast revisions of Mexican inflation and GDP growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 177-191.
    2. Michael Clements, 2016. "Are Macroeconomic Density Forecasts Informative?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-02, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    3. Jeremy Berkowitz & Ionel Birgean & Lutz Kilian, 1999. "On the finite-sample accuracy of nonparametric resampling algorithms for economic time series," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Ionel Birgean & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Data-Driven Nonparametric Spectral Density Estimators For Economic Time Series: A Monte Carlo Study," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 449-476.
    5. Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén & João Victor Issler & George Athanasopoulos, 2005. "Forecasting Accuracy and Estimation Uncertainty Using VAR Models with Short- and Long-Term Economic Restrictions: A Monte-Carlo Study," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 15/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    6. Proietti, Tommaso & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2013. "Does the Box–Cox transformation help in forecasting macroeconomic time series?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 88-99.
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    8. Breitung, Jörg & Knüppel, Malte, 2018. "How far can we forecast? Statistical tests of the predictive content," Discussion Papers 07/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
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    22. Fanelli, Luca & Paruolo, Paolo, 2007. "Speed of Adjustment in Cointegrated Systems," MPRA Paper 9174, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    25. Lahiri, Kajal & Sheng, Xuguang, 2009. "Learning and heterogeneity in GDP and inflation forecasts," MPRA Paper 21448, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2009. "Do forecasters inform or reassure?," KOF Working papers 09-215, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
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    28. Degenhardt, Thomas & Auer, Benjamin R., 2018. "The “Sell in May” effect: A review and new empirical evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 169-205.
    29. Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner Roeger & Valerie Vandermeulen, 2017. "Evaluating Medium Term Forecasting Methods and their Implications for EU Output Gap Calculations," European Economy - Discussion Papers 070, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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    32. Rosa, Carlo & Verga, Giovanni, 2007. "On the consistency and effectiveness of central bank communication: Evidence from the ECB," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 146-175, March.
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    34. Jamie L. Cross & Bao H. Nguyen & Trung Duc Tran, 2021. "The Role of Precautionary and Speculative Demand in the Global Market for Crude Oil," Working Papers No 06/2021, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    35. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the US," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 43-69, January.
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    37. Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2006. "Forecasting economic aggregates by disaggregates," Working Paper Series 589, European Central Bank.
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    39. Monica Jain, 2013. "Perceived Inflation Persistence," Staff Working Papers 13-43, Bank of Canada.
    40. Marc Brisson & Bryan Campbell & John W. Galbraith, 2001. "Forecasting Some Low-Predictability Time Series Using Diffusion Indices," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-46, CIRANO.
    41. Marc-Oliver Pohle, 2020. "The Murphy Decomposition and the Calibration-Resolution Principle: A New Perspective on Forecast Evaluation," Papers 2005.01835, arXiv.org.
    42. Paulo Esteves, 2003. "Uncertainty and Risk Analysis: na Application to the Projections for the Portuguese Economy in 2004," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
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    Cited by:

    1. Brianti, Marco & Cormun, Vito, 2023. "Expectation-Driven Boom-Bust Cycles," Working Papers 2023-4, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    2. Ionel Birgean & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Data-Driven Nonparametric Spectral Density Estimators For Economic Time Series: A Monte Carlo Study," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 449-476.
    3. Kilian, Lutz & Gonçalves, Sílvia, 2002. "Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,26, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Emanuele Brancati & Marco Brianti & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2019. "Populism, Political Risk and the Economy: Lessons from Italy," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 989, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 28 Apr 2020.
    5. Kilian, Lutz & Rebucci, Alessandro & Spatafora, Nikola, 2007. "Oil Shocks and External Balances," CEPR Discussion Papers 6303, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Kilian, Lutz & Hicks, Bruce, 2009. "Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7265, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Bottazzi, G. & Sapio, S. & Secchi, A., 2005. "Some statistical investigations on the nature and dynamics of electricity prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 355(1), pages 54-61.
    8. Yao Axel Ehouman, 2020. "Do oil-market shocks drive global liquidity?," EconomiX Working Papers 2020-33, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    9. J. David López-Salido & Francesca Loria, 2020. "Inflation at Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-013, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Amaze Lusompa, 2021. "Local Projections, Autocorrelation, and Efficiency," Research Working Paper RWP 21-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    11. López-Salido, J David & Loria, Francesca, 2019. "Inflation at Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 14074, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Winkler, Roland C. & Linnemann, Ludger, 2015. "Estimating nonlinear effects of fiscal policy using quantile regression methods," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113164, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Oil Shocks and External Balances," IMF Working Papers 2007/110, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Qi Li & Jeffrey Scott Racine, 2006. "Nonparametric Econometrics: Theory and Practice," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8355.
    15. Kilian, Lutz & Kim, Yun Jung, 2009. "Do Local Projections Solve the Bias Problem in Impulse Response Inference?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

  102. Kilian, L. & Bergean, I., 1999. "Data-Driven Nonparametric Spectral Density Estimators for Economic Time Series: A Monte Carlo Study," Papers 99-04, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.

    Cited by:

    1. Jeremy Berkowitz & Ionel Birgean & Lutz Kilian, 1999. "On the finite-sample accuracy of nonparametric resampling algorithms for economic time series," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Castro, Tomás del Barrio & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2013. "The Impact Of Persistent Cycles On Zero Frequency Unit Root Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(6), pages 1289-1313, December.
    3. Jiang, Shangrong & Li, Yuze & Lu, Quanying & Wang, Shouyang & Wei, Yunjie, 2022. "Volatility communicator or receiver? Investigating volatility spillover mechanisms among Bitcoin and other financial markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).

  103. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1999. "Unit Root Tests are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-063, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.

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    1. Tsangyao Chang & Tsung-pao Wu & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Are House Prices in South Africa Really Non-Stationary? Evidence from SPSM-Based Panel KSS Test with a Fourier Function," Working Papers 201324, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Lenarčič, Črt & Zorko, Robert & Herman, Uroš & Savšek, Simon, 2016. "A Primer on Slovene House Prices Forecast," MPRA Paper 103552, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Marcellino, Massimliano, 2004. "Forecasting EMU macroeconomic variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 359-372.
    4. Kilian, Lutz & Alquist, Ron, 2007. "What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6548, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Severin Borenstein & James Bushnell & Frank A. Wolak & Matthew Zaragoza-Watkins, 2015. "Expecting the Unexpected: Emissions Uncertainty and Environmental Market Design," NBER Working Papers 20999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Serena Ng & Timothy Vogelsang, 1999. "Forecasting Dynamic Time Series in the Presence of Deterministic Components," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 445, Boston College Department of Economics.
    7. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Liu, Ruipeng, 2015. "A unit root model for trending time-series energy variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 391-402.
    8. Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "Federal Funds Rate Prediction," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 449-471, June.
    9. Hansen, Bruce E., 2010. "Averaging estimators for autoregressions with a near unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 142-155, September.
    10. Khalaf, Lynda & Saunders, Charles J., 2017. "Monte Carlo forecast evaluation with persistent data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 1-10.
    11. David Griffiths, 2004. "The big problem of forecasting small change," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(19), pages 2195-2207.
    12. Hubrich, Kirstin, 2005. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 119-136.
    13. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Linh Nguyen & Xuewen Yu, 2023. "Multistep Forecast Averaging with Stochastic and Deterministic Trends," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-44, December.
    14. Pan, Guochen & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei, 2012. "Regional differences in development of life insurance markets in China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 548-558.
    15. Manuel Landajo & María Presno, 2013. "Nonparametric pseudo-Lagrange multiplier stationarity testing," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 65(1), pages 125-147, February.
    16. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Xuewen Yu, 2019. "Generalized Forecasr Averaging in Autoregressions with a Near Unit Root," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1318, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
    17. Manish K. Singh & Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2024. "Quantifying sovereign risk in the euro area," IREA Working Papers 202403, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2024.
    18. Tsangyao Chang & Wen-Chi Liu & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Are there housing bubbles in South Africa? Evidence from SPSM-based panel KSS test with a Fourier function," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 18(5), pages 517-532.
    19. Alberto Baffigi & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2002. "Real-time GDP forecasting in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 456, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    20. Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated". "Instability and non-linearity in the EMU," Working Papers 211, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    21. Renata Grzeda Latocha & Gernot Nerb, 2004. "Modelling Short-term Interest Rates in the Euro Area Using Business Survey Data," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2004(1), pages 43-69.
    22. Peter C. B. Phillips & Zhentao Shi, 2021. "Boosting: Why You Can Use The Hp Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 521-570, May.
    23. Junsoo Lee & John A. List & Mark Strazicich, 2005. "Nonrenewable Resource Prices: Deterministic or Stochastic Trends?," NBER Working Papers 11487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Rambeli, Norimah & Awang Marikan, Dayang Affizah & Hashim, Emilda & Mohd. Ariffin, Siti Zubaidah & Hashim, Asmawi & M. Podivinsky, Jan, 2021. "The Determinants of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Malaysia and Singapore," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 55(2), pages 107-119.
    25. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2014. "Unemployment Rate Hysteresis and the Great Recession: Exploring the Metropolitan Evidence," Working Papers 1403, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
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    28. Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "A linear benchmark for forecasting GDP growth and inflation?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 305-340.
    29. Michael W. McCracken & Serena Ng, 2021. "FRED-QD: A Quarterly Database for Macroeconomic Research," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 103(1), pages 1-44, January.
    30. Jae H. Kim & In Choi, 2017. "Unit Roots in Economic and Financial Time Series: A Re-Evaluation at the Decision-Based Significance Levels," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-23, September.
    31. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Thomas K. Lee, 2016. "Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump," CESifo Working Paper Series 5759, CESifo.
    32. Ali F. Darrat & Omar M. Benkato, 2003. "Interdependence and Volatility Spillovers Under Market Liberalization: The Case of Istanbul Stock Exchange," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(7‐8), pages 1089-1114, September.
    33. Simonetta Longhi & Peter Nijkamp & Aura Reggianni & Erich Maierhofer, 2005. "Neural Network Modeling as a Tool for Forecasting Regional Employment Patterns," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 28(3), pages 330-346, July.
    34. Ralf Brüggemann & Helmut Lütkepohl & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "Forecasting euro area variables with German pre-EMU data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 465-481.
    35. Timmermann, Allan & Guidolin, Massimo, 2007. "Forecasts of US Short-term Interest Rates: A Flexible Forecast Combination Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6188, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    36. Darrat, Ali F & Zhong, Maosen, 2000. "On Testing the Random-Walk Hypothesis: A Model-Comparison Approach," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 35(3), pages 105-124, August.
    37. Jardet, C. & Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2009. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) Term Structure Models, Term Premia and GDP Growth," Working papers 234, Banque de France.
    38. Paul Newbold & Stephan Pfaffenzeller & Anthony Rayner, 2005. "How well are long-run commodity price series characterized by trend components?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 479-494.
    39. Lavan Mahadeva and Paul Robinson, 2004. "Unit Root Testing in a Central Bank," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 22, April.
    40. Krzysztof Bartosik & Jerzy Mycielski, 2016. "Dynamika płac a długotrwałe bezrobocie w polskiej gospodarce," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(5), pages 435-462.
    41. Wagatha, Matthias, 2007. "Integration, Kointegration und die Langzeitprognose von Kreditausfallzyklen [Integration, Cointegration and Long-Horizont Forecasting of Credit-Default-Cycles]," MPRA Paper 8602, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    42. Barakchian , Seyed Mahdi & Bayat , Saeed & Karami , Hooman, 2013. "Common Factors of CPI Sub-aggregates and Forecast of Inflation," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 8(4), pages 1-17, October.
    43. Longhi, Simonetta & Nijkamp, Peter, 2006. "Forecasting regional labor market developments under spatial heterogeneity and spatial correlation," Serie Research Memoranda 0015, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    44. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521817707, January.
    45. Timmermann, Allan & Elliott, Graham, 2007. "Economic Forecasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 6158, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    46. George Athanasopoulos & Rob J Hyndman & Haiyan Song & Doris C Wu, 2008. "The tourism forecasting competition," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/08, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, revised Oct 2009.
    47. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2002. "Forecast Pooling for Short Time Series of Macroeconomic Variables," CEPR Discussion Papers 3313, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    48. Adam J. Check & Ming Chien Lo & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2023. "Are unit root tests useful for univariate time series forecasts with different orders of integration? A Monte Carlo study," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(1), pages 203-244.
    49. Kirstin Hubrich & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Forecasting Aggregates by Disaggregates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 270, Society for Computational Economics.
    50. Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2006. "Forecasting economic aggregates by disaggregates," Working Paper Series 589, European Central Bank.
    51. John L. Turner, 2004. "Local to unity, long-horizon forecasting thresholds for model selection in the AR(1)," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(7), pages 513-539.
    52. Landajo, Manuel & Presno, María José, 2010. "Nonparametric pseudo-Lagrange multiplier stationarity testing," MPRA Paper 25659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    53. Landajo, Manuel & Presno, Marıa Jose, 2022. "The prices of renewable commodities: a robust stationarity analysis," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(02), January.
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    55. Yunus Aksoy & Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma, 2007. "Non-linearities and Unit Roots in G7 Macroeconomic Variables," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0710, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    56. Tsong, Ching-Chuan, 2011. "Testing for a unit root with covariates against nonlinear alternatives," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1226-1234, May.
    57. Manuel Landajo & María José Presno, 2022. "The prices of renewable commodities: a robust stationarity analysis," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(2), pages 447-470, April.
    58. Simonetta Longhi & Peter Nijkamp, 2005. "Forecasting Regional Labour Market Developments Under Spatial Heterogeneity and Spatial Autocorrelation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-041/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    59. Chor-yiu Sin & Shu-Hui Yu, 2019. "Order selection for possibly infinite-order non-stationary time series," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 103(2), pages 187-216, June.
    60. Ghoshray, A., 2018. "The Dynamic Properties of Natural Resource Prices," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277210, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    61. Capistrán Carlos & Constandse Christian & Ramos Francia Manuel, 2009. "Using Seasonal Models to Forecast Short-Run Inflation in Mexico," Working Papers 2009-05, Banco de México.
    62. Collin Philipps & Sebastian Laumer, 2022. "Government Spending between Active and Passive Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2022-04, Department of Economics and Geosciences, US Air Force Academy.
    63. Baffigi, Alberto & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2004. "Bridge models to forecast the euro area GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 447-460.
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    69. Jean-Thomas Bernard, Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian, and Sebastien McMahon, 2015. "The Convenience Yield and the Informational Content of the Oil Futures Price," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    70. Junsoo Lee & John List, 2004. "Examining Trends of Criteria Air Pollutants: Are the Effects of Governmental Intervention Transitory?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 29(1), pages 21-37, September.
    71. Van Heerden, Dorathea & Rodrigues, Jose & Hockly, Dale & Lambert, Bongani & Taljard, Tjaart & Phiri, Andrew, 2013. "Efficient Market Hypothesis in South Africa: Evidence from a threshold autoregressive (TAR) model," MPRA Paper 50544, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    72. In Choi & Hanbat Jeong, 2020. "Differencing versus nondifferencing in factor‐based forecasting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 728-750, September.
    73. Ted Peterson & Zachary Bair, 2022. "United States Tax Rates and Economic Growth," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(3), pages 21582440221, July.
    74. E Pavlidis & I Paya & D Peel, 2009. "Forecasting the Real Exchange Rate using a Long Span of Data. A Rematch: Linear vs Nonlinear," Working Papers 601190, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    75. Ahmad Nasseri & Mohammad Sayyadi & Hassan Yazdifar & Rasol Eskandari & Mohammad Albahloul, 2018. "Causality between Cash Flow and Earnings: Evidence from Tehran (Iran) Stock Exchange," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 17(2), pages 210-228, August.
    76. Yvon Fauvel & Alain Paquet & Christian Zimmermann, 1999. "A Survey on Interest Rate Forecasting," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 87, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    77. Peter C.B. Phillips & Zhentao Shi, 2019. "Boosting the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2192, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    78. Shujie Shen & Gang Li & Haiyan Song, 2009. "Effect of Seasonality Treatment on the Forecasting Performance of Tourism Demand Models," Tourism Economics, , vol. 15(4), pages 693-708, December.
    79. Simonetta Longhi & Peter Nijkamp, 2007. "Forecasting Regional Labor Market Developments under Spatial Autocorrelation," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 30(2), pages 100-119, April.
    80. Tsangyao CHANG & Yifei CAI & Wen-Yi CHEN, 2017. "Are Suicide Rate Fluctuations Transitory or Permanent? Panel KSS Unit Root Test with a Fourier Function through the Sequential Panel Selection Method," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-17, September.
    81. Cheng-Feng Lee & Ching-Chuan Tsong, 2013. "Bootstrapping Covariate Unit Root Tests: An Application To Inflation Rates," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65, pages 165-174, May.
    82. Massimiliano Marcellino, 2004. "Forecast Pooling for European Macroeconomic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(1), pages 91-112, February.
    83. Kosei Fukuda, 2008. "Differentiating between business cycles and growth cycles: evidence from 15 developed countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(7), pages 875-883.

  104. Mehmet Caner & Lutz Kilian, 1999. "Size Distortions of Tests of the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity: Evidence and Implications for Applied Work," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 511, Society for Computational Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Ata Assaf, 2006. "Nonlinear Trend Stationarity in Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Nonlinear ADF tests," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 7(2), pages 283-294, November.
    2. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1999. "Unit Root Tests Are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models," NBER Working Papers 6928, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Mario Cerrato, 2004. "Panel Data Tests Of Ppp: A Critical Overview," Public Policy Discussion Papers 04-18, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
    4. Culver, Sarah E. & Papell, David H., 1999. "Long-run purchasing power parity with short-run data: evidence with a null hypothesis of stationarity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 751-768, October.
    5. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Raj Aggarwal & Chan Tze Haw, 2007. "East Asian Real Exchange Rates and PPP: New Evidence from Panel-data Tests," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 103-119.

  105. Kilian, Lutz & Zha, Tao, 1999. "Quantifying the Half-Life of Deviations from PPP: The Role of Economic Priors," CEPR Discussion Papers 2334, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Qian Chen & David E. Giles, 2007. "A Saddlepoint Approximation to the Distribution of the Half-Life Estimator in an Autoregressive Model: New Insights Into the PPP Puzzle," Econometrics Working Papers 0703, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    2. Chan, Tze-Haw, 2002. "Dynamic financial linkages among the Asia Pacific economies: an empirical assessment of real interest parity condition," MPRA Paper 34642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Hwa-Taek Lee & Gawon Yoon, 2013. "Does purchasing power parity hold sometimes? Regime switching in real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2279-2294, June.
    4. Chan, Tze-Haw & Khong, Wye Leong Roy & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi, 2003. "Dynamic Financial Linkages of Japan and ASEAN Economies: An Application of Real Interest Parity," MPRA Paper 2209, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2003.
    5. Schneider, Andreas, 2019. "Deterrence Theory in Paraguay: Exploring Fraud and Violation of Trust Cases," MPRA Paper 102204, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Andreas Schneider, 2019. "Deterrence Theory in Paraguay: Exploring Fraud and Violation of Trust Cases," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-17, January.

  106. Kilian, L. & Ohanian, L.E., 1999. "Unit Roots, Trend Breaks and Transitory Dynamics: A Macroeconomic Perspective," Papers 99-02, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.

    Cited by:

    1. Robinson Kruse & Michael Frömmel & Lukas Menkhoff & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2009. "What do we know about real exchange rate non-linearities?," CREATES Research Papers 2009-50, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt, 2004. "Unit Roots and Infrequent Large Shocks : New International Evidence on Output," Post-Print hal-00279015, HAL.
    3. Atiq-ur-Rehman, Atiq-ur-Rehman & Zaman, Asad, 2009. "Impact of Model Specification Decisions on Unit Root Tests," MPRA Paper 19963, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Atiq-ur-Rehman, Atiq-ur-Rehman & Zaman, Asad, 2008. "Model specification, observational equivalence and performance of unit root tests," MPRA Paper 13489, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Huang, Yu-Lieh & Huang, Chao-Hsi, 2015. "Uncertain Effects Of Shocks Vs. Uncertain Unit Root: An Alternative View Of U.S. Real Gdp," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 56(1), pages 117-134, June.
    6. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Claude Lopez, 2013. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts, and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 892-927, November.
    7. Jose Ursua & Jon Steinsson & Emi Nakamura & Robert Barro, 2008. "Crises and Recoveries in an Empirical Model of Consumption Disasters," 2008 Meeting Papers 1089, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Ghulam Ghouse & Saud Ahmad Khan & Atiq Ur Rehman & Muhammad Ishaq Bhatti, 2021. "ARDL as an Elixir Approach to Cure for Spurious Regression in Nonstationary Time Series," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(22), pages 1-15, November.
    9. Emi Nakamura & Dmitriy Sergeyev & Jón Steinsson, 2012. "Growth-Rate and Uncertainty Shocks in Consumption: Cross-Country Evidence," NBER Working Papers 18128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Salamaliki, Paraskevi K. & Venetis, Ioannis A., 2013. "Energy consumption and real GDP in G-7: Multi-horizon causality testing in the presence of capital stock," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 108-121.
    11. Yunus Aksoy & Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma, 2007. "Non-linearities and Unit Roots in G7 Macroeconomic Variables," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0710, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    12. Paraskevi Salamaliki & Ioannis Venetis & Nicholas Giannakopoulos, 2013. "The causal relationship between female labor supply and fertility in the USA: updated evidence via a time series multi-horizon approach," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 109-145, January.
    13. Andrea Tafuro, 2015. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Employment: an Analysis of the Aggregate Evidence," Working Papers 2015: 03, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    14. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Jannsen, Nils & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2016. "A Note On Banking And Housing Crises And The Strength Of Recoveries," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(7), pages 1924-1933, October.
    15. Darné, Olivier, 2009. "The uncertain unit root in real GNP: A re-examination," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 153-166, March.
    16. David H Papell & Ruxandra Prodan, 2007. "Restricted Structural Change And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(4), pages 834-853, October.

  107. Kilian, L., 1998. "Pitfalls in Constructing Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Asymptotically Pivotal Statistics," Papers 98-04, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.

    Cited by:

    1. Jeremy Berkowitz & Ionel Birgean & Lutz Kilian, 1999. "On the finite-sample accuracy of nonparametric resampling algorithms for economic time series," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. George Kapetanios & Melvyn Weeks, 2003. "Non-Nested Models and the Likelihood Ratio Statistic: A Comparison of Simulation and Bootstrap Based Tests," Working Papers 490, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    3. Ekaterina Pirozhkova, 2017. "Bank loan components, uncertainty and monetary transmission mechanism," BCAM Working Papers 1702, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.

  108. Kilian, L. & Caner, M., 1998. "Analyzing Unit Root Tests in Finite Samples Using Power Profiles," Papers 98-05, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.

    Cited by:

    1. Meier Carsten-Patrick, 2001. "Trend und Zyklus im Bruttoinlandsprodukt der Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Eine Anmerkung / Trends and Cycles in Germany’s Real Gross Domestic Product. A Note," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 221(2), pages 168-178, April.
    2. Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2000. "Trend und Zyklus im Bruttoinlandsprodukt der Bundesrepublik Deutschland - eine Anmerkung," Kiel Working Papers 993, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

  109. Lutz Kilian & Lee E. Ohanian, 1998. "Is there a trend break in U.S. GNP? A macroeconomic perspective," Staff Report 244, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

    Cited by:

    1. Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt, 2004. "Unit Roots and Infrequent Large Shocks : New International Evidence on Output," Post-Print hal-00279015, HAL.
    2. Murray, Christian J. & Nelson, Charles R., 2000. "The uncertain trend in U.S. GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 79-95, August.
    3. David E. Rapach, 2002. "Are Real GDP Levels Nonstationary? Evidence from Panel Data Tests," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(3), pages 473-495, January.
    4. Abdul Rahman & Samir Saadi, 2008. "Random walk and breaking trend in financial series: An econometric critique of unit root tests," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(3), pages 204-212, August.
    5. Bebonchu Atems & Jason Jones, 2015. "Income inequality and economic growth: a panel VAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1541-1561, June.
    6. Abdul Rahman & Samir Saadi, 2007. "Is South Korea's stock market efficient? A note," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 71-74.
    7. Paraskevi Salamaliki & Ioannis Venetis & Nicholas Giannakopoulos, 2013. "The causal relationship between female labor supply and fertility in the USA: updated evidence via a time series multi-horizon approach," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 109-145, January.
    8. Newbold, Paul & Leybourne, Stephen & Wohar, Mark E., 2001. "Trend-stationarity, difference-stationarity, or neither: further diagnostic tests with an application to U.S. Real GNP, 1875-1993," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 85-102.

  110. Kilian, L. & Chang, P.L., 1998. "How Reliable Are VAR Estimates of Responses to Monetary bPolicy Shocks?," Papers 98-06, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.

    Cited by:

    1. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers, 1999. "Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior," International Finance Discussion Papers 652, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Monticello, Carlo & Tristani, Oreste, 1999. "What does the single monetary policy do? A SVAR benchmark for the European Central Bank," Working Paper Series 2, European Central Bank.

  111. Kilian, L. & Demiroglu, U., 1997. "Residual-Based Bootstrap Tests for Normality in Autoregressions," Papers 97-14, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.

    Cited by:

    1. DUFOUR, Jean-Marie & JOUINI, Tarek, 2005. "Finite-Sample Simulation-Based Inference in VAR Models with Applications to Order Selection and Causality Testing," Cahiers de recherche 16-2005, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    2. Kim, Jae H., 2004. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for autoregression using asymptotically mean-unbiased estimators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 85-97.
    3. Bontemps, Christian & Meddahi, Nour, 2005. "Testing normality: a GMM approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 149-186, January.
    4. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Jouini, Tarek, 2006. "Finite-sample simulation-based inference in VAR models with application to Granger causality testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 229-254.

  112. Kilian, L., 1997. "Exchange rates and Fundamentals: What Do We Learn From Long-Horizon Regressions?," Working Papers 401, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.

    Cited by:

    1. Nelson Mark & Donggyu Sul, 1998. "Norminal Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: Evidence from a Small Post-Bretton Woods Panel," Working Papers 98-19, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Jan J.J. Groen, 1998. "The Monetary Exchange Rate Model as a Long-Run Phenomenon," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-082/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Sep), pages 51-74.
    4. Sam Nasypbek & Scheherazade S Rehman, 2011. "Explaining the returns of active currency managers," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 211-256, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Berben, R-P. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 1998. "Does the absence of cointegration explain the typical findings in long horizon regressions?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9814, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    6. Nelson Mark, 1998. "Fundamentals of the Real Dollar-Pound Rate: 1871-1994," Working Papers 98-14, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.

  113. Jeremy Berkowitz & Lutz Kilian, "undated". "Recent Developments in Bootstrapping Time Series," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 10 Dec 2019.

    Cited by:

    1. Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2008. "An overview on various ways of bootstrap methods," MPRA Paper 7163, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Borbély, Dóra & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2003. "Macroeconomic interval forecasting: the case of assessing the risk of deflation in Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1153, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Takashi Matsuki & Ryoichi Usami, 2009. "China's regional convergence in panels with multiple structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(7), pages 873-890.
    4. DUFOUR, Jean-Marie & JOUINI, Tarek, 2005. "Finite-Sample Simulation-Based Inference in VAR Models with Applications to Order Selection and Causality Testing," Cahiers de recherche 16-2005, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    5. Jeremy Berkowitz & Ionel Birgean & Lutz Kilian, 1999. "On the finite-sample accuracy of nonparametric resampling algorithms for economic time series," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Schumacher, Christian, 2002. "Forecasting Trend Output in the Euro Area," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 543-558, December.
    7. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2001. "Evaluating long-horizon forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 01-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    8. Eduardo Lima & Benjamin Tabak, 2009. "Tests of Random Walk: A Comparison of Bootstrap Approaches," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 365-382, November.
    9. Jae H. Kim & Philip I. Ji, 2004. "International linkage of real interest rates: the case of East Asian countries," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 124, Econometric Society.
    10. van Giersbergen, Noud P. A. & Kiviet, Jan F., 2002. "How to implement the bootstrap in static or stable dynamic regression models: test statistic versus confidence region approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 133-156, May.
    11. Ionel Birgean & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Data-Driven Nonparametric Spectral Density Estimators For Economic Time Series: A Monte Carlo Study," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 449-476.
    12. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Joint Confidence Sets for Structural Impulse Responses," CESifo Working Paper Series 5746, CESifo.
    13. Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2006. "Valuation ratios and price deviations from fundamentals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2325-2346, August.
    14. Matsuki, Takashi & Usami, Ryoichi, 2007. "China's Regional Convergence in Panels with Multiple Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 10167, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 May 2008.
    15. Thomas George & Chuan-Yang Hwang & Tavy Ronen, 2010. "Bootstrap refinements in tests of microstructure frictions," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 47-70, July.
    16. Phillips, Kerk L. & Spencer, David E., 2010. "Bootstrapping Structural VARs: Avoiding a Potential Bias in Confidence Intervals for Impulse Response Functions," MPRA Paper 23503, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Kilian, Lutz & Gonçalves, Sílvia, 2002. "Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,26, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Lee, Hsiu-Yun, 2009. "A revisit to the non-linear mean reversion of real exchange rates: Evidence from a series-specific non-linear panel unit-root test," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 591-601, December.
    19. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    20. Guochang Wang & Wai Keung Li & Ke Zhu, 2018. "New HSIC-based tests for independence between two stationary multivariate time series," Papers 1804.09866, arXiv.org.
    21. Christian De Peretti & Carole Siani, 2008. "Graphical Methods for Investigating the Finite-sample Properties of Confidence Regions: A Gap in the Literature? A New Proposal," Documents de recherche 08-01, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    22. Daniel L. Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2009. "Revisiting the predictability of bond risk premia," Working Papers 2009-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    23. Rossi, Barbara & Inoue, Atsushi & Anderson, Emily, 2013. "Heterogeneous Consumers and Fiscal Policy Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 9631, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    24. Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, 1997. "Evaluating Density Forecasts," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-37, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    25. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Tsai, Li-Ju & Chen, Show-Lin, 2004. "Are real exchange rates non-stationary? The Pacific Basin perspective," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 425-438, April.
    26. Wang, Huiqiang, 2016. "Estimating the health impacts of food safety interventions: Optimal counterfactual selections via information criteria in small samples," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 44-52.
    27. Zachary Porreca, 2024. "Identifying the General Equilibrium Effects of Narcotics Enforcement," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 24227, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    28. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Sep), pages 51-74.
    29. Greenaway-McGrevy, Ryan & Hood, Kyle K., 2016. "Worker migration or job creation? Persistent shocks and regional recoveries," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 1-16.
    30. Robert L. Bray & Decio Coviello & Andrea Ichino & Nicola Persico, 2016. "Multitasking, Multiarmed Bandits, and the Italian Judiciary," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 18(4), pages 545-558, October.
    31. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2010. "Short and long run causality measures: Theory and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(1), pages 42-58, January.
    32. Ji, Philip Inyeob & In, Francis, 2010. "The impact of the global financial crisis on the cross-currency linkage of LIBOR-OIS spreads," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 575-589, December.
    33. Lee, Hsiu-Yun & Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2001. "Mean Reversion of Inflation Rates: Evidence from 13 OECD Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 477-487, July.
    34. Wesseh, Presley K. & Zoumara, Babette, 2012. "Causal independence between energy consumption and economic growth in Liberia: Evidence from a non-parametric bootstrapped causality test," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 518-527.
    35. Kilian, Lutz & Chang, Pao-Li, 2000. "How accurate are confidence intervals for impulse responses in large VAR models?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 299-307, December.
    36. Michael D. Bauer & James D. Hamilton, 2015. "Robust bond risk premia," Working Paper Series 2015-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    37. Helmut Luetkepohl, 2011. "Vector Autoregressive Models," Economics Working Papers ECO2011/30, European University Institute.
    38. Jason Allen & Allan Gregory & Katsumi Shimotsu, 2008. "Empirical Likelihood Block Bootstrapping," Staff Working Papers 08-18, Bank of Canada.
    39. Hui Ding & Jaebeom Kim, 2012. "Does inflation targeting matter for PPP? An empirical investigation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(18), pages 1777-1780, December.
    40. Bottazzi, G. & Sapio, S. & Secchi, A., 2005. "Some statistical investigations on the nature and dynamics of electricity prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 355(1), pages 54-61.
    41. Ray C. Fair, 2001. "Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1345, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jun 2003.
    42. Kim, Jae H. & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2008. "Are Asian stock markets efficient? Evidence from new multiple variance ratio tests," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 518-532, June.
    43. Kim, Jae H., 2003. "Forecasting autoregressive time series with bias-corrected parameter estimators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 493-502.
    44. Jeffery D. Amato & Thomas Laubach, 1999. "Monetary policy in an estimated optimization-based model with sticky prices and wages," Research Working Paper RWP 99-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    45. Krishnamurthy, Arvind & Vissing-Jorgensen, Annette, 2015. "The Impact of Treasury Supply on Financial Sector Lending and Stability," Research Papers 3276, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    46. Kosta Josifidis & Jean-Pierre Allegret & Céline Gimet & Emilija Beker Pucar, 2014. "Macroeconomic policy responses to financial crises in emerging European economies," Post-Print halshs-00976661, HAL.
    47. Carli, Federico & Pesce, Elena & Porro, Francesco & Riccomagno, Eva, 2024. "Combination of autoregressive graphical models and time series bootstrap methods for risk management in marine insurance," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    48. Marczak, Martyna & Gómez, Víctor, 2015. "Cyclicality of real wages in the USA and Germany: New insights from wavelet analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 40-52.
    49. Brock, William A. & Haslag, Joseph H., 2016. "A tale of two correlations: Evidence and theory regarding the phase shift between the price level and output," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 40-57.
    50. Daniel Grabowski & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2020. "Skewness-adjusted bootstrap confidence intervals and confidence bands for impulse response functions," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 104(1), pages 5-32, March.
    51. Pesavento, Elena, 2004. "Analytical evaluation of the power of tests for the absence of cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 349-384, October.
    52. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca, 2008. "The impact of oil price shocks: Evidence from the industries of six OECD countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3095-3108, November.
    53. Rasmus Kattai & John Lewis, 2005. "Hooverism, Hyperstabilisation or Halfway-House? Describing Fiscal Policy in Central and Eastern European EU Members," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 38-47, July.
    54. Trezzi, Riccardo, 2013. "A wavelet analysis of international risk-sharing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 330-333.
    55. Shamsuddin, Abul F. M. & Kim, Jae H., 2003. "Integration and interdependence of stock and foreign exchange markets: an Australian perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 237-254, July.
    56. Ji, Philip Inyeob & Kim, Jae H., 2009. "Real interest rate linkages in the Pacific-Basin region," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 440-448, June.
    57. Vinod, Hrishikesh D., 2006. "Maximum entropy ensembles for time series inference in economics," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 955-978, December.
    58. Nieto, María Rosa, 2010. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for VaR and ES in the context of GARCH models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws102814, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    59. A. Talha Yalta, 2016. "Bootstrap Inference of Level Relationships in the Presence of Serially Correlated Errors: A Large Scale Simulation Study and an Application in Energy Demand," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 48(2), pages 339-366, August.
    60. Polito, Vito & Wickens, Mike, 2012. "A model-based indicator of the fiscal stance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 526-551.
    61. A. Talha Yalta, 2013. "Small Sample Bootstrap Inference of Level Relationships in the Presence of Autocorrelated Errors: A Large Scale Simulation Study and an Application in Energy Demand," Working Papers 1301, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
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    99. Tschirley, David & Myers, Robert & Zavale, Helder, 2014. "MSU/FSG Study of the Impact of WFP Local and Regional Food Aid Procurement on Markets, Households, and Food Value Chains," Food Security International Development Working Papers 184835, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    100. Jae Kim, 2005. "Investigating the advertising-sales relationship in the Lydia Pinkham data: a bootstrap approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 347-354.
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    102. Gadzinski, Gregory & Orlandi, Fabrice, 2004. "Inflation persistence in the European Union, the euro area, and the United States," Working Paper Series 414, European Central Bank.
    103. Groenewold, Nicolaas & Fraser, Patricia, 2001. "Tests of asset-pricing models: how important is the iid-normal assumption?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 427-449, September.
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    108. Rebeca Jimenez-Rodriguez, 2011. "Macroeconomic Structure and Oil Price Shocks at the Industrial Level," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 173-189.
    109. Jaime Casassus & Freddy Higuera, 2011. "Stock Return Predictability and Oil Prices," Documentos de Trabajo 406, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
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Articles

  1. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2024. "Heterogeneity in the pass-through from oil to gasoline prices: A new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Gonçalves, Sílvia & Herrera, Ana María & Kilian, Lutz & Pesavento, Elena, 2024. "State-dependent local projections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(2).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Kilian, Lutz, 2024. "How to construct monthly VAR proxies based on daily surprises in futures markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).

    Cited by:

    1. Yang Feng & Xiaonan Hu & Songsong Hou & Yan Guo, 2025. "A Novel BiGRU-Attention Model for Predicting Corn Market Prices Based on Multi-Feature Fusion and Grey Wolf Optimization," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-25, February.
    2. Ryan Hanson & Ana María Herrera, 2025. "The Effect of Oil News Shocks on Job Creation and Destruction," Working Papers 25-06, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.

  4. Lutz Kilian & Nikos Nomikos & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2023. "A Quantitative Model of the Oil Tanker Market in the Arabian Gulf," The Energy Journal, , vol. 44(5), pages 95-114, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2023. "A broader perspective on the inflationary effects of energy price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Lutz Kilian & Nikos Nomikos & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2023. "Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(1), pages 417-450, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Kilian, Lutz, 2022. "Understanding the estimation of oil demand and oil supply elasticities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Kilian, Lutz, 2022. "Facts and fiction in oil market modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2022. "The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(4), pages 953-987, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2022. "Joint Bayesian inference about impulse responses in VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 457-476.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  11. Lutz Kilian, 2022. "Comment on Giacomini, Kitagawa, and Read’s “Narrative Restrictions and Proxies”," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 1429-1433, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  12. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2022. "Oil prices, gasoline prices, and inflation expectations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 867-881, August.

    Cited by:

    1. Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mork, Jente Esther & Van Robays, Ine, 2024. "Gas price shocks and euro area inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    2. Robert Kelm & Izabela Sobiech Pellegrini, 2023. "Import inflacji i sprzężenie płacowo-cenowe w Polsce," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 48-70.
    3. Wehrhöfer, Nils, 2023. "Energy prices and inflation expectations: Evidence from households and firms," Discussion Papers 28/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2021. "The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23," CESifo Working Paper Series 9455, CESifo.
    5. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2023. "A broader perspective on the inflationary effects of energy price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    6. Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rossini, Luca, 2023. "Is the Price Cap for Gas Useful? Evidence from European Countries," FEEM Working Papers 338790, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    7. Casoli, Chiara & Manera, Matteo & Valenti, Daniele, 2022. "Energy shocks in the Euro area: disentangling the pass-through from oil and gas prices to inflation," FEEM Working Papers 329739, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    8. Aidala, Felix & Armantier, Olivier & Koşar, Gizem & Somerville, Jason & Topa, Giorgio & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2024. "Gasoline price changes and consumer inflation expectations: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 66-80.
    9. Afunts, Geghetsik & Cato, Misina & Schmidt, Tobias, 2023. "Inflation expectations in the wake of the war in Ukraine," Discussion Papers 03/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Tsai, I-Chun & Chen, Han-Bo & Lin, Che-Chun, 2024. "The ability of energy commodities to hedge the dynamic risk of epidemic black swans," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    11. An, Zidong & Sheng, Xuguang Simon & Zheng, Xinye, 2023. "What is the role of perceived oil price shocks in inflation expectations?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    12. Wildauer, Rafael & Kohler, Karsten & Aboobaker, Adam & Guschanski, Alexander, 2023. "Energy price shocks, conflict inflation, and income distribution in a three-sector model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    13. Gründler, Daniel, 2024. "Does the inflation pass-through of gasoline price shocks depend on the level of inflation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    14. Mohammad Asif & Vishal Sharma & Vinay Joshi Chandniwala & Parvez Alam Khan & Syed Mohd Muneeb, 2023. "Modelling the Dynamic Linkage Amidst Energy Prices and Twin Deficit in India: Empirical Investigation within Linear and Nonlinear Framework," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-23, March.
    15. Stanisławska, Ewa & Paloviita, Maritta, 2024. "Heterogeneous responsiveness of consumers’ medium-term inflation expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    16. Mohamad B. Karaki & Andrios Neaimeh, 2024. "Do higher global oil and wheat prices matter for the wheat flour price in Lebanon?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 55(4), pages 559-571, July.
    17. Benk, Szilard & Gillman, Max, 2023. "Identifying money and inflation expectation shocks to real oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    18. Diab, Sara & Karaki, Mohamad B., 2023. "Do increases in gasoline prices cause higher food prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    19. Batten, Jonathan A. & Mo, Di & Pourkhanali, Armin, 2024. "Can inflation predict energy price volatility?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    20. Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2024. "Inflation as a 'bad', heuristics and aggregate shocks: New evidence on expectation formation," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2024n03, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    21. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2024. "Functional Oil Price Expectations Shocks and Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 10998, CESifo.
    22. Ren, Yi-Shuai & Klein, Tony & Jiang, Yong & Ma, Chao-Qun & Yang, Xiao-Guang, 2024. "Dynamic spillovers among global oil shocks, economic policy uncertainty, and inflation expectation uncertainty under extreme shocks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    23. Pedersen, Michael, 2024. "The effect of monetary policy on inflation expectations: Evidence from a financial traders survey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    24. Mirzat Ullah & Kazi Sohag & Farrukh Nawaz & Oleg Mariev & Umar Kayani & Igor Mayburov & Svetlana Doroshenko, 2024. "Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Crypto and Conventional Financial Assets during Financial Crises: Evidence from the Russian Financial Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(4), pages 472-483, July.
    25. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2024. "A Global Oil Market Model with Shipping Costs," CESifo Working Paper Series 11551, CESifo.

  13. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2022. "The impact of rising oil prices on U.S. inflation and inflation expectations in 2020–23," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  14. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2022. "Oil prices, exchange rates and interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  15. Gonçalves, Sílvia & Herrera, Ana María & Kilian, Lutz & Pesavento, Elena, 2021. "Impulse response analysis for structural dynamic models with nonlinear regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(1), pages 107-130.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  16. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2020. "Does drawing down the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve help stabilize oil prices?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 673-691, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  17. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2020. "The uniform validity of impulse response inference in autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 215(2), pages 450-472.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  18. Kilian, Lutz, 2019. "Measuring global real economic activity: Do recent critiques hold up to scrutiny?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 106-110.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  19. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2018. "Are Product Spreads Useful For Forecasting Oil Prices? An Empirical Evaluation Of The Verleger Hypothesis," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 562-580, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Hedi Ben Haddad & Imed Mezghani & Abdessalem Gouider, 2021. "The Dynamic Spillover Effects of Macroeconomic and Financial Uncertainty on Commodity Markets Uncertainties," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-22, June.
    2. Jin Boon Wong, 2021. "Stock market reactions to different types of oil shocks: Evidence from China," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 179-193, February.
    3. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Wu, Chongfeng, 2020. "Forecasting commodity prices out-of-sample: Can technical indicators help?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 666-683.
    4. Cheng, Zishu & Li, Mingchen & Sun, Yuying & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Shouyang, 2024. "Climate change and crude oil prices: An interval forecast model with interval-valued textual data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    5. Mohamad B. Karaki, 2018. "Asymmetries In The Responses Of Regional Job Flows To Oil Price Shocks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(3), pages 1827-1845, July.
    6. Thomas Conlon & John Cotter & Emmanuel Eyiah-Donkor, 2022. "The illusion of oil return predictability: The choice of data matters!," Post-Print hal-03519860, HAL.
    7. Chang, Lei & Mohsin, Muhammad & Gao, Zhennan & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2023. "Asymmetric impact of oil price on current account balance: Evidence from oil importing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    8. Bredin, Don & O'Sullivan, Conall & Spencer, Simon, 2021. "Forecasting WTI crude oil futures returns: Does the term structure help?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    9. Qingxiang Han & Mengxi He & Yaojie Zhang & Muhammad Umar, 2023. "Default return spread: A powerful predictor of crude oil price returns," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1786-1804, November.
    10. Conlon, Thomas & Cotter, John & Eyiah-Donkor, Emmanuel, 2024. "Forecasting the price of oil: A cautionary note," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    11. Michail Filippidis & George Filis & Georgios Magkonis, 2024. "Evaluating Oil Price Forecasts: A Meta-analysis," The Energy Journal, , vol. 45(2), pages 71-89, March.
    12. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Ortega, Hector & Valencia, Consuelo, 2021. "How good are analyst forecasts of oil prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    13. Hao, Xianfeng & Zhao, Yuyang & Wang, Yudong, 2020. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil using robust regression models with regularization constraints," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    14. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Thomas K. Lee, 2016. "Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump," CESifo Working Paper Series 5759, CESifo.
    15. Chu, Pyung Kun & Hoff, Kristian & Molnár, Peter & Olsvik, Magnus, 2022. "Crude oil: Does the futures price predict the spot price?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    16. Oladosu, Gbadebo, 2022. "Bubbles in US gasoline prices: Assessing the role of hurricanes and anti–price gouging laws," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    17. Nima Nonejad, 2024. "Point forecasts of the price of crude oil: an attempt to “beat” the end-of-month random-walk benchmark," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 1497-1539, October.
    18. Wang, Yudong & Hao, Xianfeng, 2022. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil: A robust weighted least squares approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    19. Mastroeni, Loretta & Mazzoccoli, Alessandro, 2024. "Quantifying predictive knowledge: Wavelet energy α-divergence measure for time series uncertainty reduction," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    20. Jihad El Hokayem & Ibrahim Jamali & Ale Hejase, 2024. "A forecasting model for oil prices using a large set of economic indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1615-1624, August.
    21. Jochen H. F. Güntner & Katharina Linsbauer, 2018. "The Effects of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks on U.S. Consumer Sentiment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1617-1644, October.
    22. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2023. "Oil price assumptions for macroeconomic policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    23. Ellwanger, Reinhard & Snudden, Stephen, 2023. "Forecasts of the real price of oil revisited: Do they beat the random walk?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    24. Anthony Garratt & Shaun P. Vahey & Ynuyi Zhang, 2018. "Real-time Forecast Combinations for the Oil Price," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 494, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    25. Ederington, Louis H. & Fernando, Chitru S. & Hoelscher, Seth A. & Lee, Thomas K. & Linn, Scott C., 2019. "A review of the evidence on the relation between crude oil prices and petroleum product prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 1-15.
    26. Cai, Yifei & Zhang, Dongna & Chang, Tsangyao & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "Macroeconomic outcomes of OPEC and non-OPEC oil supply shocks in the euro area," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    27. Haas, Christian & Budin, Constantin & d’Arcy, Anne, 2024. "How to select oil price prediction models — The effect of statistical and financial performance metrics and sentiment scores," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    28. Yin, Libo & Wang, Yang, 2019. "Forecasting the oil prices: What is the role of skewness risk?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
    29. Gan, Tian & Jiang, Yan & Wu, Xi & Zhang, Mingxin, 2023. "Oil price uncertainty and the cost of debt: Evidence from the Chinese bond market," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    30. Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Yang, Li, 2018. "Predictability of crude oil prices: An investor perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 193-205.
    31. Bilgin, Doga & Ellwanger, Reinhard, 2024. "A simple model of global fuel consumption," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    32. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    33. Ederington, Louis H. & Fernando, Chitru S. & Lee, Thomas K. & Linn, Scott C. & Zhang, Huiming, 2021. "The relation between petroleum product prices and crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    34. Snudden, Stephen, 2018. "Targeted growth rates for long-horizon crude oil price forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 1-16.
    35. Doga Bilgin & Reinhard Ellwanger, 2019. "The Simple Economics of Global Fuel Consumption," Staff Working Papers 19-35, Bank of Canada.
    36. Dbouk, Wassim & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2018. "Predicting daily oil prices: Linear and non-linear models," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 149-165.
    37. Li, Zepei & Huang, Haizhen, 2023. "Challenges for volatility forecasts of US fossil energy spot markets during the COVID-19 crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 31-45.
    38. Marie-Hélène Gagnon & Gabriel J. Power, 2020. "International Oil Market Risk Anticipations and the Cushing Bottleneck: Option-implied Evidence," The Energy Journal, , vol. 41(6), pages 255-280, November.
    39. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.

  20. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2018. "Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(2_suppl), pages 117-137, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  21. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2018. "Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 54-78.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  22. John Coglianese & Lucas W. Davis & Lutz Kilian & James H. Stock, 2017. "Anticipation, Tax Avoidance, and the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 1-15, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  23. Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2017. "The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(8), pages 1747-1776, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  24. Guerron-Quintana, Pablo & Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2017. "Impulse response matching estimators for DSGE models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 144-155.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  25. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Thomas K. Lee, 2017. "Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 275-295, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  26. Lutz Kilian, 2017. "The Impact of the Fracking Boom on Arab Oil Producers," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  27. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2016. "Joint confidence sets for structural impulse responses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 421-432.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  28. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is This Time Different?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 287-357.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  29. Lutz Kilian, 2016. "The Impact of the Shale Oil Revolution on U.S. Oil and Gasoline Prices," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 10(2), pages 185-205.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  30. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 131-158.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  31. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 139-160, Winter.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  32. Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre & Kilian, Lutz, 2015. "Do high-frequency financial data help forecast oil prices? The MIDAS touch at work," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 238-252.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  33. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2015. "Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 338-351, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  34. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K., 2014. "Are there gains from pooling real-time oil price forecasts?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 33-43.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  35. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(1), pages 119-145, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  36. Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K., 2014. "Quantifying the speculative component in the real price of oil: The role of global oil inventories," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 71-87.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  37. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Do oil price increases cause higher food prices? [Biofuels, binding constraints, and agricultural commodity price volatility]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(80), pages 691-747.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  38. Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Oil Price Shocks: Causes and Consequences," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 133-154, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  39. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "What Central Bankers Need To Know About Forecasting Oil Prices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(3), pages 869-889, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  40. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2014. "The Role Of Inventories And Speculative Trading In The Global Market For Crude Oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 454-478, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  41. Lutz Kilian & Bruce Hicks, 2013. "Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003–2008?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 385-394, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  42. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2013. "Inference on impulse response functions in structural VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(1), pages 1-13.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  43. Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2013. "Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 78-93, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  44. Bassam Fattouh, Lutz Kilian, and Lavan Mahadeva, 2013. "The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  45. Thomas F. Helbling & Vincent Kaminski & Lutz Kilian & Robert Levin, 2012. "Interviews with the experts on "Financial Speculation in the Oil Market and the Determinants of the Oil Price" (PART II)," Review of Environment, Energy and Economics - Re3, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Manera, 2013. "Introduction to a Special issue on "Financial Speculation in the Oil Markets and the Determinants of the Price of Oil"," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).

  46. Martin Bodenstein & Luca Guerrieri & Lutz Kilian, 2012. "Monetary Policy Responses to Oil Price Fluctuations," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(4), pages 470-504, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  47. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2012. "Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding The Dynamics Of Oil Market Var Models," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1166-1188, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  48. Lutz Kilian & Clara Vega, 2011. "Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 660-671, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  49. Lutz Kilian & Yun Jung Kim, 2011. "How Reliable Are Local Projection Estimators of Impulse Responses?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1460-1466, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Povilas Lastauskas & Julius Stakėnas, 2022. "Dancing Alone or Together: The Dynamic Effects of Independent and Common Monetary Policies," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, volume 43, pages 217-241, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    2. Jörg Breitung & Ralf Brüggemann, 2019. "Projection estimators for structural impulse responses," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2019-05, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    3. de Ridder, M. & Pfajfar, D., 2017. "Policy Shocks and Wage Rigidities: Empirical Evidence from Regional Effects of National Shocks," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1717, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2012. "Identifying the Shocks behind Business Cycle Asynchrony in Euroland," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 466, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    5. Boer, Lukas & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2021. "Qualitative versus quantitative external information for proxy vector autoregressive analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    6. Leonardo Nogueira Ferreira & Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2023. "Bayesian Local Projections," Working Papers Series 581, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    7. Brianti, Marco & Cormun, Vito, 2023. "Expectation-Driven Boom-Bust Cycles," Working Papers 2023-4, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    8. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Joint Confidence Sets for Structural Impulse Responses," CESifo Working Paper Series 5746, CESifo.
    9. Dedola, Luca & Rivolta, Giulia & Stracca, Livio, 2017. "If the Fed sneezes, who catches a cold?," Working Paper Series 2050, European Central Bank.
    10. Boeckx, Jef & De Sola Perea, Maite & Peersman, Gert, 2017. "The Transmission Mechanism of Credit Support Policies in the Euro Area," ECMI Papers 12624, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    11. Sebastian Fleitas & Matthew Jaremski & Steven Sprick Schuster, 2023. "The U.S. Postal Savings System and the collapse of building and loan associations during the Great Depression," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 89(4), pages 1196-1215, April.
    12. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Byoungchan Lee, 2017. "A Note on Variance Decomposition with Local Projections," NBER Working Papers 23998, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Sheng, Xin & Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2023. "The non-linear response of US state-level tradable and non-tradable inflation to oil shocks: The role of oil-dependence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    14. Rancière, Romain & Fraiberger, Samuel & , & Puy, Damien, 2018. "Media Sentiment and International Asset Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 13366, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Philipp Roderweis & Jamel Saadaoui & Francisco Serranito, 2023. "Is Quantitative Easing Productive? The Role of Bank Lending in the Monetary Transmission Process," Working Papers hal-04159825, HAL.
    16. James McNeil, 2020. "Estimation of Impulse response functions with term structure local projections," Working Papers daleconwp2020-05, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    17. Gilles Dufrénot & William Ginn & Marc Pourroy, 2023. "ENSO Climate Patterns on Global Economic Conditions," Working Papers hal-04064759, HAL.
    18. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Marija Vukotic, 2022. "Patent-Based News Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 51-66, March.
    19. Edward P. Herbst & Benjamin K. Johannsen, 2020. "Bias in Local Projections," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-010r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 04 Jan 2021.
    20. Couaillier, Cyril & Scalone, Valerio, 2024. "Risk-to buffer: setting cyclical and structural banks capital requirements through stress test," Working Paper Series 2966, European Central Bank.
    21. Katarzyna Budnik & Gerhard Rünstler, 2023. "Identifying structural VARs from sparse narrative instruments: Dynamic effects of US macroprudential policies," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 186-201, March.
    22. Alessio Ciarlone, 2023. "Remittances in times of crisis: evidence from Italian corridors," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1402, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    23. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco, 2020. "Estimating nonlinear dynamic equilibrium models by matching impulse responses," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    24. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2017. "The transmission of monetary policy shocks," Bank of England working papers 657, Bank of England.
    25. Martin Bruns & Helmut Luetkepohl, 2020. "An Alternative Bootstrap for Proxy Vector Autoregressions," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2020-06, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    26. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2014. "The role of oil price shocks in causing U.S. recessions," CFS Working Paper Series 460, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    27. Max Breitenlechner & Johann Scharler, 2020. "Private Sector Debt, Financial Constraints, and the Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from the US," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(4), pages 889-915, August.
    28. Guerino Ardizzi & Andrea Nobili & Giorgia Rocco, 2020. "A game changer in payment habits: evidence from daily data during a pandemic," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 591, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    29. Luca Brugnolini, 2018. "About Local Projection Impulse Response Function Reliability," CEIS Research Paper 440, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 09 Jun 2018.
    30. Chi-Young Choi & Alexander Chudik, 2019. "Estimating Impulse Response Functions When the Shock Series Is Observed," Globalization Institute Working Papers 353, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    31. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Emanuele Brancati & Marco Brianti & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2019. "Populism, Political Risk and the Economy: Lessons from Italy," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 989, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 28 Apr 2020.
    32. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Asset Price Bubbles," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2018-37, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    33. Li, Dake & Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel & Wolf, Christian K., 2024. "Local projections vs. VARs: Lessons from thousands of DGPs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(2).
    34. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2020. "The asymmetric effects of monetary policy on stock price bubbles," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2020-12, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    35. Oliver Hülsewig & Horst Rottmann, 2020. "Euro Area Periphery Countries' Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy Surprises," CESifo Working Paper Series 8041, CESifo.
    36. Mikkel Plagborg-M{o}ller & Christian K. Wolf, 2020. "Instrumental Variable Identification of Dynamic Variance Decompositions," Papers 2011.01380, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    37. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011. "Nonlinearities In The Oil Price–Output Relationship," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 337-363, November.
    38. Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 955-980, March.
    39. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2017. "Does monetary policy generate asset price bubbles ?," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2017-05, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    40. Hongyi Chen & Peter Tillmann, 2022. "Lockdown Spillovers," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202215, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    41. Haroon Mumtaz & Michele Piffer, 2022. "Impulse response estimation via flexible local projections," Papers 2204.13150, arXiv.org.
    42. Dong Jin Lee & Tae-Hwan Kim & Paul Mizen, 2020. "Impulse response analysis in conditional quantile models with an application to monetary policy," Discussion Papers 2020/08, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    43. Rabia Rafique & Asad Nisar & Syed Sadaqat Ali Shah, 2024. "Testing the effects of fiscal policy shocks on output growth in recession and expansion: empirical evidence from developing countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1-26, June.
    44. Atsushi Sekine & Takayuki Tsuruga, 2014. "Effects of Commodity Price Shocks on Inflation:A Cross-Country Analysis," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 038, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    45. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2017. "Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?," Staff Working Papers 17-50, Bank of Canada.
    46. Francesca Caselli & Agustin Roitman, 2016. "Non-Linear Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2016/001, International Monetary Fund.
    47. William Ginn, 2022. "Climate Disasters and the Macroeconomy: Does State-Dependence Matter? Evidence for the US," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 141-161, March.
    48. Bouteska, Ahmed & Harasheh, Murad & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul, 2023. "Revisiting overconfidence in investment decision-making: Further evidence from the U.S. market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    49. Marcel Gorenflo, 2013. "Futures price dynamics of CO 2 emission allowances," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1025-1047, December.
    50. Gregoriou, Greg N. & Racicot, François-Éric & Théoret, Raymond, 2021. "The response of hedge fund tail risk to macroeconomic shocks: A nonlinear VAR approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 843-872.
    51. Barthélémy, Sylvain & Binet, Marie-Estelle & Pentecôte, Jean-Sébastien, 2020. "Worldwide economic recoveries from financial crises through the decades," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    52. Syed Sadaqat Ali Shah & Muhammad Asim Afridi, 2023. "Cyclical variation of fiscal multipliers in Caucasus and Central Asia economies: an empirical evidence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4531-4563, December.
    53. Brüggemann, Ralf & Jentsch, Carsten & Trenkler, Carsten, 2014. "Inference in VARs with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Working Papers 14-21, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    54. Racicot, François-Éric & Théoret, Raymond, 2018. "Multi-moment risk, hedging strategies, & the business cycle," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 637-675.
    55. Bruns, Martin & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2022. "Comparison of local projection estimators for proxy vector autoregressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    56. Jing Lian Suah, 2024. "The "plucking" model of the unemployment rate floor: Corss-country estimates and empirics," BIS Working Papers 1159, Bank for International Settlements.
    57. Christopher J. Neely, 2014. "How Persistent Are Unconventional Monetary Policy Effects?," Working Papers 2014-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 15 Apr 2022.
    58. Amaze Lusompa, 2021. "Local Projections, Autocorrelation, and Efficiency," Research Working Paper RWP 21-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    59. Herbst, Edward P. & Johannsen, Benjamin K., 2024. "Bias in local projections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(1).
    60. José Luis Montiel Olea & Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller, 2021. "Local Projection Inference Is Simpler and More Robust Than You Think," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(4), pages 1789-1823, July.
    61. Endong Wang, 2024. "Structural counterfactual analysis in macroeconomics: theory and inference," Papers 2409.09577, arXiv.org.
    62. Pierre L. Siklos, 2020. "Looking into the Rear-View Mirror: Lessons from Japan for the Eurozone and the U.S?," IMES Discussion Paper Series 20-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    63. Lorenzo Menna & Martín Tobal, 2021. "Communication of Credit Rating Agencies and Financial Markets," Working Papers 80, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    64. Romain Duval & Davide Furceri, 2018. "The Effects of Labor and Product Market Reforms: The Role of Macroeconomic Conditions and Policies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(1), pages 31-69, March.
    65. Rünstler, Gerhard, 2024. "The macroeconomic impact of euro area labor market reforms: evidence from a narrative panel VAR," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    66. Stefano Puddu, 2013. "Real Sector and Banking System: Real and Feedback Effects. A Non-Linear VAR Approach," IRENE Working Papers 13-01, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    67. Winkler, Roland C. & Linnemann, Ludger, 2015. "Estimating nonlinear effects of fiscal policy using quantile regression methods," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113164, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    68. Naser Yenus Nuru & Hayelom Yrgaw Gereziher, 2021. "The impacts of public expenditure innovations on real exchange rate volatility in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-72, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    69. Akanksha Jalan & Roman Matkovskyy & Andrew Urquhart, 2022. "Demand elasticities of Bitcoin and Ethereum," Post-Print hal-03888337, HAL.
    70. Eugene Frimpong & Jamie Kruse & Gregory Howard & Rachel Davidson & Joseph Trainor & Linda Nozick, 2019. "Measuring Heterogeneous Price Effects for Home Acquisition Programs in At‐Risk Regions," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(4), pages 1108-1131, April.
    71. Stéphane Lhuissier & Aymeric Ortmans & Fabien Tripier, 2024. "The Risk of Inflation Dispersion in the Euro Area," Working papers 954, Banque de France.
    72. Paul Rudel, 2024. "Loan Supply Shocks, Prudential Regulation, and the Business Cycle," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202409, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    73. Massimo Ferrari Minesso & Frederik Kurcz & Maria Sole Pagliari, 2022. "Do words hurt more than actions? The impact of trade tensions on financial markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(6), pages 1138-1159, September.
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    78. Mario Di Serio & Matteo Fragetta & Emanuel Gasteiger & Giovanni Melina, 2024. "The Euro Area Government Spending Multiplier in Demand‐ and Supply‐Driven Recessions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(6), pages 1342-1372, December.
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    1. Ciola, Emanuele & Turco, Enrico & Gurgone, Andrea & Bazzana, Davide & Vergalli, Sergio & Menoncin, Francesco, 2023. "Enter the MATRIX model:a Multi-Agent model for Transition Risks with application to energy shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    2. Moshiri, Saeed & Bakhshi Moghaddam, Mohsen, 2018. "The effects of oil price shocks in a federation; The case of interregional trade and labour migration," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 206-221.
    3. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Damette, Olivier & Parent, Antoine & Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2017. "Liquidity traps and large-scale financial crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 99-114.
    4. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2017. "Estimating the real effects of uncertainty shocks at the zero lower bound," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2017, Bank of Finland.
    5. Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "Sustainable economic development in China: Modelling the role of hydroelectricity consumption in a multivariate framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 516-531.
    6. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2019. "Oil price shocks and Chinese banking performance: Do country risks matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 46-53.
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  54. Lutz Kilian & Logan T. Lewis, 2011. "Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 1047-1072, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  55. Lucas W. Davis & Lutz Kilian, 2011. "Estimating the effect of a gasoline tax on carbon emissions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(7), pages 1187-1214, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  56. Lutz Kilian, 2010. "Explaining Fluctuations in Gasoline Prices: A Joint Model of the Global Crude Oil Market and the U.S. Retail Gasoline Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 87-112.

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    1. Coglianese, John & Davis, Lucas W. & Kilian, Lutz & Stock, James H., 2015. "Anticipation, tax avoidance, and the price elasticity of gasoline demand," CFS Working Paper Series 503, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    2. Carlos P. Barros & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2012. "Long Memory in German Energy Price Indices," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1186, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Xiaodong Du & Lihong Lu McPhail, 2012. "Inside the Black Box: the Price Linkage and Transmission between Energy and Agricultural Markets," The Energy Journal, , vol. 33(2), pages 171-194, April.
    4. Zacharias Bragoudakis & Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis, 2019. "Oil and pump prices: is there any asymmetry in the Greek oil downstream sector?," Working Papers 268, Bank of Greece.
    5. Abhay Abhyankar, Bing Xu, and Jiayue Wang, 2013. "Oil Price Shocks and the Stock Market: Evidence from Japan," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    6. Chortareas, Georgios & Noikokyris, Emmanouil, 2014. "Oil shocks, stock market prices, and the U.S. dividend yield decomposition," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 639-649.
    7. Jihoon Lee & Hong Chong Cho, 2021. "Impact of Structural Oil Price Shock Factors on the Gasoline Market and Macroeconomy in South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, February.
    8. Bastianin, Andrea & Manera, Matteo, 2018. "How Does Stock Market Volatility React To Oil Price Shocks?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 666-682, April.
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    10. Qiu, Cheng & Colson, Gregory & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2011. "Considering Macroeconomic Indicators in the Food versus Fuel Issues," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103689, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Mihai Ioan Mutascu, 2021. "Fuel price co-movements among France, Germany and Italy: A time-frequency investigation," Post-Print hal-03529585, HAL.
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    13. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2013. "Are product spreads useful for forecasting? An empirical evaluation of the Verleger hypothesis," CFS Working Paper Series 2013/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    14. Vatter, Marc H., 2017. "OPEC's kinked demand curve," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 272-287.
    15. Kilian, Lutz & Alquist, Ron & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 8388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Marc Joëts & Valérie Mignon & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2015. "Does the volatility of commodity prices reflect macroeconomic uncertainty?," Working Papers 2015-02, CEPII research center.
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    20. Demet Yilmazkuday & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2016. "Understanding Gasoline Price Dispersion," Working Papers 1602, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
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    26. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2019. "Does Drawing Down the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Help Stabilize Oil Prices?," Working Papers 1916, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
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    31. Donna, Javier D., 2021. "Measuring Long-Run Gasoline Price Elasticities in Urban Travel Demand," MPRA Paper 121039, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    33. Valerie A. Ramey & Daniel J. Vine, 2011. "Oil, Automobiles, and the US Economy: How Much Have Things Really Changed?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010, volume 25, pages 333-367, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    35. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Thomas K. Lee, 2016. "Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump," CESifo Working Paper Series 5759, CESifo.
    36. Nick, Sebastian & Thoenes, Stefan, 2014. "What drives natural gas prices? — A structural VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 517-527.
    37. Scott, K. Rebecca, 2011. "Demand and Price Volatility: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt2q87432b, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    38. Darko B. Vuković & Senanu Dekpo-Adza & Vladislav Khmelnitskiy & Mustafa Özer, 2023. "Spillovers across the Asian OPEC+ Financial Market," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-23, September.
    39. Grzegorz Zimon, 2023. "Prospects for the Development of Transport in Poland during the Energy Crisis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(3), pages 56-60, May.
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    41. Oladosu, Gbadebo, 2022. "Bubbles in US gasoline prices: Assessing the role of hurricanes and anti–price gouging laws," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    42. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2017. "Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is this Time Different?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6322, CESifo.
    43. Kilian, Lutz & Davis, Lucas W, 2009. "Estimating the Effect of a Gasoline Tax on Carbon Emissions," CEPR Discussion Papers 7161, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    44. Carlos Pestana Barros & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2011. "Oil Prices: Persistence and Breaks," Faculty Working Papers 09/11, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    45. Lovcha, Yuliya & Perez-Laborda, Alejandro & Sikora, Iryna, 2022. "The determinants of CO2 prices in the EU emission trading system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    46. Liu, Tie-Ying & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2018. "Will the energy price bubble burst?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 276-288.
    47. Vietha Devia SS, 2019. "Analysis of Crude Oil Price and Exchange Rate Volatility on Macroeconomic Variables (Case Study of Indonesia as Emerging Economic Country)," International Journal of Business and Administrative Studies, Professor Dr. Bahaudin G. Mujtaba, vol. 5(5), pages 257-271.
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    49. Scott, K. Rebecca, 2013. "Demand and Price Uncertainty: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt25q4w08n, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    50. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata K., 2022. "Do airfares respond asymmetrically to fuel price changes? A multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    51. Lingxiu Dong & Panos Kouvelis & Xiaole Wu, 2014. "The Value of Operational Flexibility in the Presence of Input and Output Price Uncertainties with Oil Refining Applications," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(12), pages 2908-2926, December.
    52. Kilian, Lutz & Murphy, Daniel, 2009. "Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding the Dynamics of Oil Market VAR Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 7471, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    53. Tokgoz, Simla & Traoré, Fousseini, 2023. "Understanding E10 markets in the U.S.: Evidence from spatial data," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1267-1281.
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    58. Afees A. Salisu & Idris Adediran, 2018. "US shale oil and the behaviour of commodity prices," Working Papers 047, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
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    2. Coglianese, John & Davis, Lucas W. & Kilian, Lutz & Stock, James H., 2015. "Anticipation, tax avoidance, and the price elasticity of gasoline demand," CFS Working Paper Series 503, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    3. Matthias Kehrig & Nicolas L. Ziebarth, 2017. "The Effects of the Real Oil Price on Regional Wage Dispersion," CESifo Working Paper Series 6408, CESifo.
    4. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman & Ine Van Robays, 2010. "The Economic Consequences of Oil Shocks: Differences across Countries and Time," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    5. Dey Shubhasis, 2017. "Sources of Uncertainty and the Indian Economy," Working papers 253, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.
    6. Choi, Hae Mi & Gupta-Mukherjee, Swasti, 2022. "Price sensitivity of the consumer-investor: Evidence from energy prices and mutual fund fees," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
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    8. Urom, Christian & Mzoughi, Hela & Ndubuisi, Gideon & Guesmi, Khaled, 2022. "Directional predictability and time-frequency spillovers among clean energy sectors and oil price uncertainty," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 326-341.
    9. Peng Li & Yaofu Ouyang, 2023. "Oil price shocks and China’s consumer and entrepreneur sentiment: a Bayesian structural VAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2241-2271, November.
    10. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Rubaszek, Michał & Snarska, Małgorzata, 2021. "The role of oil price uncertainty shocks on oil-exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
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    12. Jiang, Yong & Wang, Gang-Jin & Ma, Chaoqun & Yang, Xiaoguang, 2021. "Do credit conditions matter for the impact of oil price shocks on stock returns? Evidence from a structural threshold VAR model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-15.
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    4. David Rapach & Jack Strauss, 2010. "Bagging or Combining (or Both)? An Analysis Based on Forecasting U.S. Employment Growth," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5-6), pages 511-533.
    5. Gogas, Periklis & Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "The Informational Content of the Term-Spread in Forecasting the U.S. Inflation Rate: A Nonlinear Approach," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 3-2016, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.
    6. Shawn Ni & Antonello Loddo & Dongchu Sun, 2009. "Selection of Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models via Bayesian Stochastic Search," Working Papers 0911, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    7. Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Vrontos, Spyridon, 2015. "Hedge fund return predictability; To combine forecasts or combine information?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 103-122.
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    10. Krüger Fabian & Pohlmeier Winfried & Mokinski Frieder, 2011. "Combining Survey Forecasts and Time Series Models: The Case of the Euribor," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 63-81, February.
    11. Eric Hillebrand & Huiyu Huang & Tae-Hwy Lee & Canlin Li, 2018. "Using the Entire Yield Curve in Forecasting Output and Inflation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-27, August.
    12. Apergis Nicholas, 2021. "Forecasting US overseas travelling with univariate and multivariate models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 963-976, September.
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    47. Kadir Özen & Dilem Yıldırım, 2021. "Application of Bagging in Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting and Factor Augmentation," ERC Working Papers 2101, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Apr 2021.
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    95. Erik Christian Montes Schütte, 2018. "In Search of a Job: Forecasting Employment Growth in the US using Google Trends," CREATES Research Papers 2018-25, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    96. Dbouk, Wassim & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2018. "Predicting daily oil prices: Linear and non-linear models," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 149-165.
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    98. Jordan, Steven J. & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Can commodity returns forecast Canadian sector stock returns?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 172-188.

  67. Lutz Kilian & Simone Manganelli, 2008. "The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences under Greenspan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(6), pages 1103-1129, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dey Shubhasis, 2017. "Sources of Uncertainty and the Indian Economy," Working papers 253, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.
    2. Peng Li & Yaofu Ouyang, 2023. "Oil price shocks and China’s consumer and entrepreneur sentiment: a Bayesian structural VAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2241-2271, November.
    3. Mahmood -ur- Rahman & Zakaria Zoundi, 2018. "Macroeconomic Response of Disentangled Oil Price Shocks: Empirical Evidence from Japan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(4), pages 2240-2253.
    4. Cristina Conflitti and Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Oil Price Pass-through into Core Inflation," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
    5. Apostolos Serletis & Libo Xu, "undated". "Markov Switching Oil Price Uncertainty," Working Papers 2019-02, Department of Economics, University of Calgary, revised 02 Jan 2019.
    6. Gulzar Khan & Adiqa Kiani & Ather Maqsood Ahmed, 2017. "Globalization, Endogenous Oil Price Shocks and Chinese Economic Activity," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 22(2), pages 39-64, July-Dec.
    7. H. Rajesh Acharya & C. Anver Sadath, 2016. "Energy Price Uncertainty and Investment: Firm Level Evidence from Indian Manufacturing Sector," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 364-373.
    8. Joëts, Marc, 2014. "Energy price transmissions during extreme movements," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 392-399.
    9. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2017. "The nexus between the oil price and its volatility in a stochastic volatility in mean model with time-varying parameters," Working Papers 15-33, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    10. Elder, John & Serletis, Apostolos, 2009. "Oil price uncertainty in Canada," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 852-856, November.
    11. Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6559, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Aye, Goodness C. & Dadam, Vincent & Gupta, Rangan & Mamba, Bonginkosi, 2014. "Oil price uncertainty and manufacturing production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 41-47.
    13. Jihoon Lee & Hong Chong Cho, 2021. "Impact of Structural Oil Price Shock Factors on the Gasoline Market and Macroeconomy in South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, February.
    14. Aït-Youcef, Camille & Joëts, Marc, 2024. "The role of index traders in the financialization of commodity markets: A behavioral finance approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    15. Rahman, Sajjadur & Serletis, Apostolos, 2012. "Oil price uncertainty and the Canadian economy: Evidence from a VARMA, GARCH-in-Mean, asymmetric BEKK model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 603-610.
    16. John Elder & Apostolos Serletis, 2010. "Oil Price Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1137-1159, September.
    17. Vidya Sukumara Panicker & Sumit Mitra & Rajesh Srinivas Upadhyayula, 2018. "Ownership in Emerging Market Firms and International investments: Board independence and CEO duality as Moderators," Working papers 252, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.
    18. Ameyaw, Emmanuel, 2024. "Business cycles in a cocoa and gold economy: Commodity price shocks do not always matter," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    19. Xinheng Liu & Shuxian Li & Chengbo Fu & Xu Gong & Chen Fan, 2024. "The oil price plummeted in 2014–2015: Is there an effect on Chinese firms' labour investment?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 943-960, January.
    20. Matthias Gubler & Matthias S. Hertweck, 2013. "Commodity Price Shocks and the Business Cycle: Structural Evidence for the U.S," Working Papers 2013-05, Swiss National Bank.
    21. Marc Gronwald, 2012. "Oil and the U.S. Macroeconomy: A Reinvestigation Using Rolling Impulse Responses," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    22. Claudio Morana, 2012. "The Oil price-Macroeconomy Relationship since the Mid- 1980s: A global perspective," Working Papers 2012.28, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    23. Petroulakis, Filippos, 2017. "Internal devaluation in currency unions: the role of trade costs and taxes," Working Paper Series 2049, European Central Bank.
    24. Ordóñez, Javier & Sala, Hector & Silva, José I., 2010. "Oil Price Shocks and Labor Market Fluctuations," IZA Discussion Papers 5096, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    25. Mohamad B. Karaki, 2018. "Oil Prices and State Unemployment Rates," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(3), pages 25-50, May.
    26. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2014. "The role of oil price shocks in causing U.S. recessions," CFS Working Paper Series 460, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    27. Marc Joëts & Valérie Mignon & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2015. "Does the volatility of commodity prices reflect macroeconomic uncertainty?," Working Papers 2015-02, CEPII research center.
    28. C. Baumeister & G. Peersman, 2008. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/515, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    29. Gulzar Khan & Ather Maqsood Ahmed, 2020. "Understanding Business Cycle Fluctuations in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 1-28.
    30. Evgenidis, Anastasios, 2016. "Do all oil price shocks have the same impact? Evidence from the Euro Area," Economic Letters 07/EL/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
    31. Anh, Dao Le Trang & Quang, Nguyen Thi Thieu & Anh, Nguyen Tuan, 2024. "Investment decision and efficiency: Global insights on manufacturing firms amidst energy uncertainties," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    32. Castro, César & Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca, 2016. "Oil price pass-through along the price chain in the euro area," MPRA Paper 70227, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin & Özkan, Oktay, 2023. "Geopolitical oil price uncertainty transmission into core inflation: Evidence from two of the biggest global players," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    34. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Pitfalls in Estimating Asymmetric Effects of Energy Price Shocks," 2009 Meeting Papers 473, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    35. Sardar, Naafey & Qureshi, Irfan, 2024. "Revisiting the relationship between oil supply news shocks and U.S. economic activity: Role of the zero lower bound," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    36. Amin, Md Ruhul & Wang, Xinyu & Aktas, Elvan, 2023. "Does oil price uncertainty affect corporate innovation?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    37. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011. "Nonlinearities In The Oil Price–Output Relationship," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 337-363, November.
    38. Ravago, Majah-Leah V. & Brucal, Arlan Zandro & Roumasset, James & Punongbayan, Jan Carlo, 2019. "The role of power prices in structural transformation: Evidence from the Philippines," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 20-33.
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    41. Amélie Charles & Chew Lian Chua & Olivier Darné & Sandy Suardi, 2021. "Oil Price Shocks, Real Economic Activity and Uncertainty," Post-Print hal-03284089, HAL.
    42. Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 7324, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    43. Raheem, Ibrahim D., 2017. "Asymmetry and break effects of oil price -macroeconomic fundamentals dynamics: The trade effect channel," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 12-25.
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    46. Marc Joëts, 2013. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Regret, and Uncertainty: The Role of Speculation in Energy Price Dynamics," Working Papers 2013.32, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    47. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2017. "Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?," Staff Working Papers 17-50, Bank of Canada.
    48. Herrera, Ana María & Lagalo, Latika Gupta & Wada, Tatsuma, 2015. "Asymmetries in the response of economic activity to oil price increases and decreases?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 108-133.
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    50. Wei Kang & David Penn & Joachim Zietz, 2015. "The response of state employment to oil price volatility," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(3), pages 478-500, July.
    51. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca, 2008. "The impact of oil price shocks: Evidence from the industries of six OECD countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3095-3108, November.
    52. Zhengke Ye & Chunyan Hu & Linjie He & Guangda Ouyang & Fenghua Wen, 2020. "The Dynamic Time-frequency Relationship between International Oil Prices and Investor Sentiment in China: A Wavelet Coherence Analysis," The Energy Journal, , vol. 41(5), pages 251-270, September.
    53. Goodness C. Aye, 2014. "Does Oil Price Uncertainty Matter for Stock Returns in South Africa?," Working Papers 201484, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    54. Ahmadi, Maryam & Manera, Matteo, 2021. "Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth in Oil-Exporting Countries," FEEM Working Papers 311052, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
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    57. Majah-Leah V. Ravago & Arlan Zandro I. Brucal & James Roumasset & Jan Carlo Punongbayan, 2019. "The Role of Electricity Prices in Structural Transformation: Evidence from the Philippines," Working Papers 201904, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    58. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2017. "Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is this Time Different?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6322, CESifo.
    59. Jo, Soojin & Karnizova, Lilia & Reza, Abeer, 2019. "Industry effects of oil price shocks: A re-examination," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 179-190.
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    63. Puch, Luis A., 2013. "A theory of vintage capital investment and energy use," UC3M Working papers. Economics we1320, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
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    79. Anthony Enisan Akinlo & Michael Segun Ojo, 2021. "Examining the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on remittances inflows: evidence from Nigeria," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(10), pages 1-16, October.
    80. Zalina Zainal, Zalina & Aziz, Mukhriz Izraf Azman & Md. Salleh, Mohd Faisol, 2021. "The Effect of Asymmetrical Relationship of Oil Price Shocks on Gross Domestic Product," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 55(2), pages 121-135.
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    82. Natalya (Natasha) Delcoure & Harmeet Singh, 2018. "Oil and equity: too deep into each other," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(1), pages 89-111, January.
    83. Jesus Cuauhtemoc Tellez Gaytan & Aqila Rafiuddin & Gyanendra Singh Sisodia & Gouher Ahmed & CH Paramaiah, 2023. "Pass-through Effects of Oil Prices on LATAM Emerging Stocks before and during COVID-19: An Evidence from a Wavelet -VAR Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 529-543, January.
    84. Yoon, Kyung Hwan & Ratti, Ronald A., 2011. "Energy price uncertainty, energy intensity and firm investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 67-78, January.
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    86. Dhaoui Abderrazak & Chevallier Julien & Ma Feng, 2021. "Identifying asymmetric responses of sectoral equities to oil price shocks in a NARDL model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(2), pages 1-19, April.
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    88. Kovač Rijad & Verbič Miroslav, 2023. "Wealth Inequality and Institutional Development: Macroeconometric Evidence from a Global Sample," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 18(1), pages 100-114, June.
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    90. César Castro & Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez & Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra, 2017. "A new look at oil price pass-through into inflation: evidence from disaggregated European data," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 34(1), pages 55-82, April.
    91. Maria Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañes, 2011. "ECONOMIC GROWTH, INFLATION AND OIL SHOCKS: ARE THE 1970s COMING BACK?," Post-Print hal-00720578, HAL.
    92. Atems, Bebonchu & Mette, Jehu & Lin, Guoyu & Madraki, Golshan, 2023. "Estimating and forecasting the impact of nonrenewable energy prices on US renewable energy consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    93. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    94. Tang, Le & Jefferson, Gary, 2024. "A DSGE model of energy efficiency with vintage capital in Chinese industry," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
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    96. Zoundi Zakaria, 2017. "Crude Oil Price Volatility and Domestic Price Responses in Developing Countries, Accounting for Asymmetry and Uncertainty," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(4), pages 2466-2482.
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    99. Parul Bhatia, 2021. "Sustainability Of Exchange Rates And Crude Oil Prices Connection With Covid-19: An Investigation For Brics," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 5, pages 19-29, October.
    100. Herrera, Ana María & Karaki, Mohamad B. & Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar, 2019. "Oil price shocks and U.S. economic activity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 89-99.
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    102. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Oyekola, Olayinka, 2015. "Oil Prices and the Dynamics of Output and Real Exchange Rate," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2015/18, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
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  69. Lutz Kilian & Simone Manganelli, 2007. "Quantifying the Risk of Deflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 561-590, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  70. Silvia Goncalves & Lutz Kilian, 2007. "Asymptotic and Bootstrap Inference for AR(∞) Processes with Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 609-641.

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    1. Giuseppe Cavaliere & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2009. "Bootstrap M Unit Root Tests," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 393-421.
    2. Philip Preuss & Ruprecht Puchstein & Holger Dette, 2015. "Detection of Multiple Structural Breaks in Multivariate Time Series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 110(510), pages 654-668, June.
    3. Andrews, Donald W.K. & Guggenberger, Patrik, 2012. "Asymptotics for LS, GLS, and feasible GLS statistics in an AR(1) model with conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 196-210.
    4. Demetrescu Matei, 2009. "Panel Unit Root Testing with Nonlinear Instruments for Infinite-Order Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-30, December.
    5. Richard T. Baillie & George Kapetanios & Fotis Papailias, 2017. "Inference for impulse response coefficients from multivariate fractionally integrated processes," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1-3), pages 60-84, March.
    6. Hsiu-Hsin Ko, 2016. "Exchange Rate Predictability in Finite Samples," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 361-378, September.
    7. Tommaso Proietti & Alessandro Giovannelli, 2017. "A Durbin-Levinson Regularized Estimator of High Dimensional Autocovariance Matrices," CEIS Research Paper 410, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 19 Jul 2017.
    8. Marian Vavra, 2015. "On a Bootstrap Test for Forecast Evaluations," Working and Discussion Papers WP 5/2015, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    9. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2011. "Testing For Unit Roots In The Presence Of A Possible Break In Trend And Nonstationary Volatility," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(5), pages 957-991, October.
    10. Oscar Jorda & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "Path Forecast Evaluation," Working Papers 131, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    11. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & A.M. Robert Taylor, 2014. "Bootstrap Score Tests for Fractional Integration in Heteroskedastic ARFIMA Models, with an Application to Price Dynamics in Commodity Spot and Futures Markets," CREATES Research Papers 2014-22, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    12. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2015. "Nested forecast model comparisons: A new approach to testing equal accuracy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 160-177.
    13. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Robert Taylor, 2017. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Bootstrap Inference in Fractional Time Series Models with Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," CREATES Research Papers 2017-02, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    14. Xu, Ke-Li, 2012. "Robustifying multivariate trend tests to nonstationary volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 147-154.
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    16. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Schlaak, Thore, 2019. "Bootstrapping impulse responses of structural vector autoregressive models identified through GARCH," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 41-61.
    17. Quentin Giai Gianetto & Hamdi Raïssi, 2015. "Testing Instantaneous Causality in Presence of Nonconstant Unconditional Covariance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 46-53, January.
    18. Atsushi Inoue & `Oscar Jord`a & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2023. "Inference for Local Projections," Papers 2306.03073, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    19. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009. "In-sample tests of predictive ability: a new approach," Research Working Paper RWP 09-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    20. Corradi, Valentina & Iglesias, Emma M., 2008. "Bootstrap refinements for QML estimators of the GARCH(1,1) parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 500-510, June.
    21. Xu, Ke-Li & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2008. "Adaptive estimation of autoregressive models with time-varying variances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 265-280, January.
    22. H. Peter Boswijk & Giuseppe Cavaliere & Anders Rahbek & Iliyan Georgiev, 2021. "Bootstrapping Non-Stationary Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2101.03562, arXiv.org.
    23. Hsiu-Hsin Ko, 2016. "Exchange Rate Predictability in Finite Samples," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 67(3), pages 361-378, September.
    24. Shimizu Kenichi, 2013. "The bootstrap does not alwayswork for heteroscedasticmodels," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 30(3), pages 189-204, August.
    25. Psaradakis, Zacharias & Vávra, Marián, 2017. "A distance test of normality for a wide class of stationary processes," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 2(C), pages 50-60.
    26. Hounyo, Ulrich & Lahiri, Kajal, 2023. "Estimating the variance of a combined forecast: Bootstrap-based approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 232(2), pages 445-468.
    27. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Rasmus Søndergaard Pedersen & Anders Rahbek, 2018. "The Fixed Volatility Bootstrap for a Class of Arch(q) Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 920-941, November.
    28. Oscar Jorda & Alan Taylor & Sanjay Singh, 2019. "The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy," 2019 Meeting Papers 1307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    29. Brüggemann, Ralf & Jentsch, Carsten & Trenkler, Carsten, 2014. "Inference in VARs with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Working Papers 14-21, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    30. Salish, Nazarii & Gleim, Alexander, 2019. "A moment-based notion of time dependence for functional time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(2), pages 377-392.
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    33. José Luis Montiel Olea & Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller, 2021. "Local Projection Inference Is Simpler and More Robust Than You Think," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(4), pages 1789-1823, July.
    34. Ron Alquist & Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2014. "What Does the Convenience Yield Curve Tell Us about the Crude Oil Market?," Staff Working Papers 14-42, Bank of Canada.
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    1. Magdalena M Borys & Roman Horvath, 2008. "The Effects of Monetary Policy in the Czech Republic: An Empirical Study," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp922, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.

  72. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "On the selection of forecasting models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 273-306, February.
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  73. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2005. "In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 371-402.
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    1. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Hassanzadeh, Ali & Prasetyo, Ahmad Danu, 2014. "Response of Stock Markets to Monetary Policy: An Asian Stock Market Perspective," ADBI Working Papers 497, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    2. Easaw Joshy & Golinelli Roberto, 2010. "Households Forming Inflation Expectations: Active and Passive Absorption Rates," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, November.
    3. Elías Albagli I. & Pablo García S. & Jorge Restrepo L., 2004. "Evaluating Labor Market Flexibility in Chile from an International Perspective," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 7(2), pages 27-46, August.
    4. Faisal Rachman, 2016. "Is Inflation Target Announced by Bank Indonesia the Most Accurate Inflation Forecast?," Economics and Finance in Indonesia, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, vol. 62, pages 98-120, August.
    5. Raper, Kellie Curry & Thornsbury, Suzanne & Aguilar, Cristobal, 2009. "Regional Wholesale Price Relationships in the Presence of Counter-Seasonal Imports," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(01), pages 1-20, April.
    6. Sima Siami‐Namini & Conrad Lyford & A. Alexandre Trindade, 2020. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Income Inequality Across U.S. States," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 39(3), pages 204-221, September.
    7. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui Manuel Pereira, 2017. "On the Effects of Infrastructure Investments on Industrial CO2 Emissions in Portugal," GEE Papers 0081, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Oct 2017.
    8. J. Easaw & R. Golinelli, 2012. "Household Inflation Expectations: Information Gathering, Inattentive or Stubborn ?," Working Papers wp853, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    9. Michael Elsby & Ryan Michaels & David Ratner, 2020. "Vacancy Chains," Working Papers 20-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    10. Ahmadi, Maryam & Manera, Matteo & Sadeghzadeh, Mehdi, 2019. "The investment-uncertainty relationship in the oil and gas industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    11. Buncic, Daniel & Melecky, Martin, 2012. "Macroprudential stress testing of credit risk : a practical approach for policy makers," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5936, The World Bank.
    12. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui Manuel Pereira, 2017. "Why Virtuous Supply-Side Effects and Irrelevant Keynesian Effects are not Foregone Conclusions: What we Learn from an Industry-Level Analysis of Infrastructure Investments in Portugal," GEE Papers 0076, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Aug 2017.
    13. Jonathan McCarthy & Egon Zakrajšek, 2003. "Inventory dynamics and business cycles: what has changed?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-26, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    15. Li, Xuerong & Shang, Wei & Wang, Shouyang, 2019. "Text-based crude oil price forecasting: A deep learning approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1548-1560.
    16. Elías Albagli & Pablo García & Jorge E. Restrepo, 2005. "Assessing the Flexibility of the Labor Market in Chile: An International Perspective," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Jorge Restrepo & Andrea Tokman R. & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Edi (ed.),Labor Markets and Institutions, edition 1, volume 8, chapter 9, pages 301-328, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. Berg, Tim Oliver, 2019. "Business Uncertainty And The Effectiveness Of Fiscal Policy In Germany," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1442-1470, June.
    18. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui M. Pereira, 2015. "Is All Infrastructure Investment Created Equal? The Case of Portugal," Working Papers 156, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
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    28. Fossati, Sebastian, 2011. "Covariate Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Working Papers 2011-4, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
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    30. Sun, Lixin, 2016. "Corporate Deleveraging and Macroeconomic Policies: Evidence from China," MPRA Paper 69140, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    31. Gilbert COLLETAZ & Grégory LEVIEUGE & Alexandra POPESCU, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Long-Run Risk-Taking," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2409, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
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    33. Mariarosaria Comunale & Markus Eller & Mathias Lahnsteiner, 2020. "Assessing Credit Gaps in CESEE Based on Levels Justified by Fundamentals – A Comparison Across Different Estimation Approaches (Mariarosaria Comunale, Markus Eller, Mathias Lahnsteiner)," Working Papers 229, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    34. Hasanujzaman, Muhammad, 2016. "The impact of export growth to stock market in a managed floating exchange rate regime: A VAR Analysis," MPRA Paper 77123, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2016.
    35. Kumar, Nitish, 2024. "Natural resources and economic growth: Examining the role of globalization, financial development, and digitalization in India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    36. Andrea Colabella, 2019. "Do the ECB’s monetary policies benefit emerging market economies? A GVAR analysis on the crisis and post-crisis period," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1207, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    37. Sumru Altug & Melike Bildirici, 2010. "Business Cycles around the Globe: A Regime Switching Approach," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1009, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
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    39. Giovanni Pellegrino, 2020. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in the US: A Journey into Non-Linear Territory," Economics Working Papers 2020-05, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    40. Luca Brugnolini, 2018. "About Local Projection Impulse Response Function Reliability," CEIS Research Paper 440, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 09 Jun 2018.
    41. Alfred A. Haug & Christie Smith, 2007. "Local linear impulse responses for a small open economy," Working Papers 0707, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2007.
    42. Imran Hussain Shaha & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2017. "Seeking price and macroeconomic stabilisation in the euro area: The role of house prices and stock prices," Working Papers del Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales 1707, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales.
    43. Martin Bodenstein & Gunes Kamber & Christoph Thoenissen, 2016. "Commodity prices and labour market dynamics in small open economies," Working Papers 2016005, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    44. Kamel Jlassi, 2015. "Modelling and Forecasting of Tunisian Current Account: Aggregate versus Disaggregate Approach," IHEID Working Papers 13-2015, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    45. Kyriaki-Argyro Tsioptsia & Eleni Zafeiriou & Dimitrios Niklis & Nikolaos Sariannidis & Constantin Zopounidis, 2022. "The Corporate Economic Performance of Environmentally Eligible Firms Nexus Climate Change: An Empirical Research in a Bayesian VAR Framework," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-16, October.
    46. Mariarosaria Comunale & Giulia Felice, 2022. "Trade and structural change: An empirical investigation," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 171, pages 80-109.
    47. Hector H. Sandoval & Anita N. Walsh, 2021. "The role of consumer confidence in forecasting consumption, evidence from Florida," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(2), pages 757-788, October.
    48. Izatov, Asset, 2015. "The Role of Oil Prices, Real Effective Exchange Rate and Inflation in Economic Activity of Russia: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 70735, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    49. Rambeli, Norimah & Awang Marikan, Dayang Affizah & Hashim, Emilda & Mohd. Ariffin, Siti Zubaidah & Hashim, Asmawi & M. Podivinsky, Jan, 2021. "The Determinants of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Malaysia and Singapore," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 55(2), pages 107-119.
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    60. Berger, Allen N. & Bouwman, Christa H.S., 2017. "Bank liquidity creation, monetary policy, and financial crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 139-155.
    61. Philip Agyei Peprah & Yao Hongxing & Jean Baptiste Bernard Pea-Assounga, 2019. "Regional Foreign Direct Investment Potential in Selected African Countries," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(10), pages 66-76, October.
    62. Eleni Zafeiriou & Spyros Galatsidas & Christina Moulogianni & Spyridon Sofios & Garyfallos Arabatzis, 2024. "Evaluating Enteric Fermentation-Driven Environmental Kuznets Curve Dynamics: A Bayesian Vector Autoregression Comparative Study of the EU and Least Developed Countries," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-16, November.
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    65. Suchanek, Max, 2024. "Social interactions in short squeeze scenarios," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 898-919.
    66. Godil, Danish Iqbal & Sarwat, Salman & Khan, Muhammad Kamran & Ashraf, Muhammad Sajjad & Sharif, Arshian & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2022. "How the price dynamics of energy resources and precious metals interact with conventional and Islamic Stocks: Fresh insight from dynamic ARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
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    94. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, December.
    95. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Lemus Antonio, 2019. "Nonlinear effects of the Chilean fiscal policy," Post-Print hal-02425809, HAL.
    96. Mr. Mario Catalan & Alexander W. Hoffmaister, 2020. "When Banks Punch Back: Macrofinancial Feedback Loops in Stress Tests," IMF Working Papers 2020/072, International Monetary Fund.
    97. Haug, Alfred A. & Jędrzejowicz, Tomasz & Sznajderska, Anna, 2019. "Monetary and fiscal policy transmission in Poland," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 15-27.
    98. Riyad Abubaker, 2016. "Consumption and Money Uncertainty at the Zero Lower Bound," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(1), pages 449-463.
    99. Mariarosaria Comunale & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2019. "Euro Area Growth and European Institutional Reforms," Bank of Lithuania Occasional Paper Series 24, Bank of Lithuania.
    100. Carvalho, Diogo Baerlocher & Silva, Marcelo Eduardo Alves da & Silva, Igor Ézio Maciel, 2013. "Efeitos dos choques fiscais sobre o mercado de trabalho brasileiro," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 67(2), June.
    101. Enn Lun Yong, 2019. "Unemployment and the European Union, 2000–2017: structural exploration of distant past economic experience and future prosperity," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-21, December.
    102. Ren, Yunwen & Xiao, Zhiguo & Zhang, Xinsheng, 2013. "Two-step adaptive model selection for vector autoregressive processes," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 349-364.
    103. Yang, Lucun, 2011. "An Empirical Analysis of Current Account Determinants in Emerging Asian Economies," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2011/10, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    104. Asset Izatov, 2015. "The Role of Oil Prices, the Real Effective Exchange Rate, and Inflation in Economic Activity of Russia: An Empirical Investigation," Eastern European Business and Economics Journal, Eastern European Business and Economics Studies Centre, vol. 1(3), pages 48-70.
    105. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    106. Li, Jingwen & Wang, Dawei & Qin, Meng, 2024. "Understanding the role of mineral resources and inflation in promoting sustainable development under the inflation reduction act," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    107. Lechuan Hu & Norbert J. Fortin & Hernando Ombao, 2019. "Modeling High-Dimensional Multichannel Brain Signals," Statistics in Biosciences, Springer;International Chinese Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 91-126, April.
    108. Omura, Makiko & Sakurai, Yuka & Ebihara, Kensuke, 2013. "An Analysis of Wine Consumption Trends and Food-Related Expenditures in Japan," Working Papers 164654, American Association of Wine Economists.
    109. Soonae Park & Min-Gean Park & Kyung-Min Nam, 2019. "Growth effects of fiscal decentralization with weak economic motivation: the case of South Korea," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 63(3), pages 399-436, December.
    110. Ederington, Louis H. & Fernando, Chitru S. & Lee, Thomas K. & Linn, Scott C. & Zhang, Huiming, 2021. "The relation between petroleum product prices and crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    111. Ida Wolden Bache, 2008. "Assessing estimates of the exchange rate pass-through," Working Paper 2007/12, Norges Bank.
    112. Wei Yao & Weikun Zhang & Wenxiu Li & Penglong Li, 2022. "Measurement and Evaluation of Convergence of Japan’s Marine Fisheries and Marine Tourism," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-16, July.
    113. Nolan, James & Pizzey, Logan, 2017. "Pass the Salt: Markets for Grain Shipping on the Great Lakes," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 56(2).
    114. Cinzia Alcidi, 2009. "The Effect of Equity Market Integration on the Transmission Monetary Policy. Evidence from Australia," IHEID Working Papers 03-2009, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    115. Mariarosaria Comunale & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2021. "Tracking growth in the euro area subject to a dimensionality problem," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(57), pages 6611-6625, December.
    116. Luca Benati & Paolo Surico, 2006. "The Great Moderation and the ‘Bernanke Conjecture’," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 158, Society for Computational Economics.
    117. Simeonova-Ganeva, Ralitsa, 2006. "Влияние На Човешкия Капитал Върху Икономическия Растеж (България, 1949-2005 Г.) [The Impact of Human Capital on the Economic Growth (Bulgaria, 1949-2005)]," MPRA Paper 37244, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    118. Jiang, Zuopeng & Jia, Xuhong & Liao, Jiajia, 2024. "Natural resources, renewable energy, and healthcare expenditure in the pursuit of sustainable development amidst inflation reduction act of 2022," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    119. Philip, R., 2020. "Estimating permanent price impact via machine learning," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 215(2), pages 414-449.
    120. Bampi, Rodrigo E. & Colombo, Jefferson A., 2021. "Heterogeneous effects of foreign exchange appreciation on industrial output: Evidence from disaggregated manufacturing data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 431-451.
    121. Yasir Alsaedi & Gurudeo Anand Tularam & Victor Wong, 2020. "Impact of Solar and Wind Prices on the Integrated Global Electricity Spot and Options Markets: A Time Series Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 337-353.
    122. Quelhas, João, 2022. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and its impact on the real economy: Empirical Evidence from the Euro area," MPRA Paper 113621, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2022.
    123. Bai, Yun & Li, Xixi & Yu, Hao & Jia, Suling, 2022. "Crude oil price forecasting incorporating news text," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 367-383.
    124. Anita Staneva, 2008. "Analysis of the Labour Market in Bulgaria through a Error Correction Model," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 90-106.
    125. Ngene, Geoffrey M., 2021. "What drives dynamic connectedness of the U.S equity sectors during different business cycles?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    126. Ashvin Ahuja & Suchot Piamchol & Bunnaree Punnarach & Tientip Subhanij, 2008. "Globalization and Monetary Policy Effectiveness," Working Papers 2008-05, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    127. Benjamin Patrick Evans & Mikhail Prokopenko, 2022. "Bounded strategic reasoning explains crisis emergence in multi-agent market games," Papers 2206.05568, arXiv.org.
    128. Prasolov, Alexander V., 2018. "On the simultaneous estimation of delay model parameters in economic dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 1102-1109.
    129. Kilian, Lutz & Edelstein, Paul, 2007. "Retail Energy Prices and Consumer Expenditures," CEPR Discussion Papers 6255, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

  75. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  76. Goncalves, Silvia & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 89-120, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  77. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2003. "The Continuity Of The Limit Distribution In The Parameter Of Interest Is Not Essential For The Validity Of The Bootstrap," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(6), pages 944-961, December.

    Cited by:

    1. DUFOUR, Jean-Marie & JOUINI, Tarek, 2005. "Finite-Sample Simulation-Based Inference in VAR Models with Applications to Order Selection and Causality Testing," Cahiers de recherche 16-2005, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    2. DUFOUR, Jean-Marie, 2005. "Monte Carlo Tests with Nuisance Parameters: A General Approach to Finite-Sample Inference and Nonstandard Asymptotics," Cahiers de recherche 2005-03, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    3. Daniel Grabowski & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2020. "Skewness-adjusted bootstrap confidence intervals and confidence bands for impulse response functions," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 104(1), pages 5-32, March.
    4. George Kapetanios, 2004. "Testing for Exogeneity in Nonlinear Threshold Models," Working Papers 515, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    5. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Jouini, Tarek, 2006. "Finite-sample simulation-based inference in VAR models with application to Granger causality testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 229-254.
    6. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2019. "The Uniform Validity of Impulse Response Inference in Autoregressions," Working Papers 1908, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    7. George Kapetanios, 2004. "A Bootstrap Invariance Principle for Highly Nonstationary Long Memory Processes," Working Papers 507, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    8. Kilian, Lutz & Kim, Yun Jung, 2009. "Do Local Projections Solve the Bias Problem in Impulse Response Inference?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

  78. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  79. Lutz Kilian & Tao Zha, 2002. "Quantifying the uncertainty about the half-life of deviations from PPP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(2), pages 107-125.

    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Haroon Mumtaz & Mr. Jean Imbs & Mr. Morten O. Ravn & Ms. Helene Rey, 2003. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Working Papers 2003/068, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Ca’ Zorzi, Michele & Kolasa, Marcin & Rubaszek, Michał, 2017. "Exchange rate forecasting with DSGE models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 127-146.
    3. I Paya & D Peel, 2005. "Temporal aggregation of an ESTAR process," Working Papers 565938, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    4. Hyeongwoo Kim & Ippei Fujiwara & Bruce E. Hansen & Masao Ogaki, 2015. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Taylor Rule," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 874-903, September.
    5. Fullerton Jr., Thomas M. & Fierro, Karen P. & Villalobos, Emmanuel, 2009. "Cross-border restaurant price and exchange rate interactions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 281-288, December.
    6. Mayoral, Laura & Dolores Gadea, María, 2011. "Aggregate real exchange rate persistence through the lens of sectoral data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 290-304.
    7. Ahmed Asseery, 2005. "Evidence of non-linearities in the bilateral real exchange rates of the British pound," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 63-90.
    8. Jaebeom Kim & Masao Ogaki & Minseok Yang, 2007. "Structural Error Correction Models: A System Method for Linear Rational Expectations Models and an Application to an Exchange Rate Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 2057-2075, December.
    9. Mototsugu Shintani, 2006. "A nonparametric measure of convergence towards purchasing power parity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 589-604.
    10. Rehim Kılıç, 2009. "Nonlinearity and Persistence in PPP: Does Controlling for Nonlinearity Solve the PPP Puzzle?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 570-587, August.
    11. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers, 1999. "Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior," International Finance Discussion Papers 652, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Laura Mayoral, 2013. "Heterogeneous Dynamics, Aggregation, And The Persistence Of Economic Shocks," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1295-1307, November.
    13. Carlos Carvalho & Fernanda Nechio, 2012. "Real exchange rate dynamics in sticky-price models with capital," Working Paper Series 2012-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    14. Lopez, Claude & Murray, Chris & Papell, David, 2009. "Median-Unbiased Estimation in DF-GLS Regressions and the PPP Puzzle," MPRA Paper 26091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Rigobon, Roberto, 2006. "The long-run volatility puzzle of the real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 93-124, February.
    16. Claude Lopez & Christian J. Murray & David H. Papell, 2004. "State of the Art Unit Root Tests and Purchasing Power Parity," University of Cincinnati, Economics Working Papers Series 2004-04, University of Cincinnati, Department of Economics.
    17. Demetrescu, Matei & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2023. "Transformed regression-based long-horizon predictability tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    18. Laura Mayoral, 2015. "Analyzing aggregate real exchange rate persistence through the lens of sectoral data," Working Papers 399, Barcelona School of Economics.
    19. Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2004. "Temporal Aggregation Of An Estar Process: Some Implications For Purchasing Power Parity Adjustment," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-25, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    20. LAN, Yuexing & SYLWESTER, Kevin, 2010. "Does the law of one price hold in China? Testing price convergence using disaggregated data," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 224-236, June.
    21. Georg H. Strasser, 2010. "The Efficiency of the Global Markets for Final Goods and Productive Capabilities," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 766, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 31 Jan 2012.
    22. Fanelli, Luca & Paruolo, Paolo, 2007. "Speed of Adjustment in Cointegrated Systems," MPRA Paper 9174, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Sofiane Sekioua & Menelaos Karanasos, 2006. "The real exchange rate and the Purchasing Power Parity puzzle: further evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1-2), pages 199-211.
    24. Fidora, Michael & Giordano, Claire & Schmitz, Martin, 2017. "Real exchange rate misalignments in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2108, European Central Bank.
    25. Rossi, Barbara, 2005. "Confidence Intervals for Half-Life Deviations From Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 432-442, October.
    26. Hwa-Taek Lee & Gawon Yoon, 2013. "Does purchasing power parity hold sometimes? Regime switching in real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2279-2294, June.
    27. Michele Ca' Zorzi & Jakub Muck & Michal Rubaszek, 2015. "Real exchange rate forecasting and ppp: this time the random walk loses," Globalization Institute Working Papers 229, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    28. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Linda Tesar, 2005. "A Re-Examination of the Border Effect," Working Papers 546, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    29. Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon & Wohar, 2015. "Parity reversion in the Asian real exchange rates: new evidence from the local-persistent model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(59), pages 6395-6408, December.
    30. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Rubaszek, Michał & Muck, Jakub, 2013. "Real exchange rate forecasting: a calibrated half-life PPP model can beat the random walk," Working Paper Series 1576, European Central Bank.
    31. Mototsugu Shintani, 2006. "A nonparametric measure of convergence towards purchasing power parity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 589-604, July.
    32. Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Gokmenoglu, Korhan & Ekinci, Cagdas, 2013. "Persistence in crude oil spot and futures prices," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 29-37.
    33. Lasha Kavtaradze & Manouchehr Mokhtari, 2018. "Factor Models And Time†Varying Parameter Framework For Forecasting Exchange Rates And Inflation: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 302-334, April.
    34. Hyeyoen Kim, 2011. "Large Data Sets, Nonlinearity and the Speed of Adjustment to Real Exchange Rate Shocks," Post-Print hal-00665456, HAL.
    35. Koedijk, Kees G. & Tims, Ben & van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2011. "Why panel tests of purchasing power parity should allow for heterogeneous mean reversion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 246-267, February.
    36. Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2008. "The coordination channel of foreign exchange intervention: A nonlinear microstructural analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 55-76, January.
    37. Pesavento, Elena & Rossi, Barbara, 2007. "Impulse response confidence intervals for persistent data: What have we learned?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2398-2412, July.
    38. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2020. "The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models," Working Papers 2006, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    39. Murray, Christian J. & Papell, David H., 2002. "The purchasing power parity persistence paradigm," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19, January.
    40. Bob Nobay & Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2010. "Inflation Dynamics in the U.S.: Global but Not Local Mean Reversion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 135-150, February.
    41. I Paya & D Peel, 2005. "A new analysis of the determinants of the real dollar-sterling exchange rate: 1871-1994," Working Papers 565953, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    42. Jae Kim & Param Silvapulle & Rob J. Hyndman, 2006. "Half-Life Estimation based on the Bias-Corrected Bootstrap: A Highest Density Region Approach," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 11/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    43. Choi, Chi-Young & Matsubara, Kiyoshi, 2007. "Heterogeneity in the persistence of relative prices: What do the Japanese cities tell us?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 260-286, June.
    44. Mark Fisher, 2015. "Fitting a distribution to survey data for the half-life of deviations from PPP," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2015-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    45. Lopez, C. & Murray, C J. & Papell, D H., 2011. "Median-UnbiaseDéestimation in DF-GLS Regressions and the PPP Puzzle," Working papers 338, Banque de France.
    46. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2012. "Fundamental Problems with Nonfundamental Shocks," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1230, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    47. Jaebeom Kim & Masao Ogaki & Minseok Yang, 2003. "Structural Error Correction Models: Instrumental Variables Methods and an application to an exchange rate model," RCER Working Papers 502, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    48. Sofiane H. Sekioua, 2004. "Real interest parity (RIP) over the 20th century: New evidence based on confidence intervals for the dominant root and half-lives of shocks," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 91, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    49. Robertson, Raymond & Kumar, Anil & Dutkowsky, Donald H., 2009. "Purchasing Power Parity and aggregation bias for a developing country: The case of Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 237-243, November.

  80. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Bootstrapping Smooth Functions of Slope Parameters and Innovation Variances in VAR (∞) Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(2), pages 309-332, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Kyritsis, Evangelos & Serletis, Apostolos, 2017. "The Zero Lower Bound and Market Spillovers: Evidence from the G7 and Norway," Discussion Papers 2017/7, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    2. Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2008. "Sieve bootstrap t-tests on long-run average parameters," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 3354-3370, March.
    3. Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2012. "Identifying the Shocks behind Business Cycle Asynchrony in Euroland," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 466, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    4. DUFOUR, Jean-Marie & JOUINI, Tarek, 2005. "Finite-Sample Simulation-Based Inference in VAR Models with Applications to Order Selection and Causality Testing," Cahiers de recherche 16-2005, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    5. Jeremy Berkowitz & Ionel Birgean & Lutz Kilian, 1999. "On the finite-sample accuracy of nonparametric resampling algorithms for economic time series," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Impulse Response Matching Estimators for DSGE Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 5730, CESifo.
    7. Richard T. Baillie & George Kapetanios & Fotis Papailias, 2017. "Inference for impulse response coefficients from multivariate fractionally integrated processes," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1-3), pages 60-84, March.
    8. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, "undated". "Measuring Predictability: Theory and Macroeconomic Applications," CARESS Working Papres 97-19, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
    9. Phillips, Kerk L. & Spencer, David E., 2010. "Bootstrapping Structural VARs: Avoiding a Potential Bias in Confidence Intervals for Impulse Response Functions," MPRA Paper 23503, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Karras, Georgios & Lee, Jin Man & Stokes, Houston, 2005. "Sources of exchange-rate volatility: Impulses or propagation?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 213-226.
    11. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2010. "Short and long run causality measures: Theory and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(1), pages 42-58, January.
    12. Helmut Luetkepohl, 2011. "Vector Autoregressive Models," Economics Working Papers ECO2011/30, European University Institute.
    13. Cruz, Christopher John, 2022. "Reduced macroeconomic volatility after adoption of inflation targeting: Impulses or propagation?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 759-770.
    14. Lamb, John D. & Tee, Kai-Hong, 2012. "Resampling DEA estimates of investment fund performance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(3), pages 834-841.
    15. Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 955-980, March.
    16. Enrique Martínez García, 2020. "A Matter of Perspective: Mapping Linear Rational Expectations Models into Finite-Order VAR Form," Globalization Institute Working Papers 389, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    17. Enrique Martínez García, 2016. "Finite-Order VAR Representation of Linear Rational Expectations Models: With Some Lessons for Monetary Policy," Globalization Institute Working Papers 285, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    18. Chaudourne, Jeremy & Fève, Patrick & Guay, Alain, 2012. "Understanding the Effect of Technology Shocks in SVARs with Long-Run Restrictions," IDEI Working Papers 738, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    19. Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2011. "An efficient minimum distance estimator for DSGE models," Bank of England working papers 439, Bank of England.
    20. Brüggemann, Ralf & Jentsch, Carsten & Trenkler, Carsten, 2014. "Inference in VARs with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Working Papers 14-21, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    21. Luca Sala, 2004. "The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: Identifying Restrictions and Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 257, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    22. Karras, Georgios & Lee, Jin Man & Stokes, Houston, 2006. "Why are postwar cycles smoother? Impulses or propagation?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 392-406.
    23. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Jouini, Tarek, 2006. "Finite-sample simulation-based inference in VAR models with application to Granger causality testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 229-254.
    24. Pesavento, Elena & Rossi, Barbara, 2007. "Impulse response confidence intervals for persistent data: What have we learned?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2398-2412, July.
    25. Roberto Duncan & Enrique Martínez García, 2015. "Forecasting local inflation in Open Economies: What Can a NOEM Model Do?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 235, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 21 Dec 2022.
    26. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2019. "The Uniform Validity of Impulse Response Inference in Autoregressions," Working Papers 1908, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    27. Kilian, Lutz, 2011. "Structural Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8515, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    28. Andrés Alonso & Daniel Peña & Juan Romo, 2006. "Introducing model uncertainty by moving blocks bootstrap," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 167-179, March.
    29. Kilian, Lutz & Kim, Yun Jung, 2009. "Do Local Projections Solve the Bias Problem in Impulse Response Inference?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    30. Ziadat, Salem Adel & McMillan, David G. & Herbst, Patrick, 2022. "Oil shocks and equity returns during bull and bear markets: The case of oil importing and exporting nations," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

  81. Ionel Birgean & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Data-Driven Nonparametric Spectral Density Estimators For Economic Time Series: A Monte Carlo Study," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 449-476.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  82. Kilian, Lutz & Ohanian, Lee E., 2002. "Unit Roots, Trend Breaks, And Transitory Dynamics: A Macroeconomic Perspective," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(5), pages 614-632, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  83. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Bootstrapping Autoregressive Processes with Possible Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 377-391, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  84. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 657-669.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  85. Caner, M. & Kilian, L., 2001. "Size distortions of tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity: evidence and implications for the PPP debate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 639-657, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  86. Kilian, Lutz, 2001. "Impulse Response Analysis in Vector Autoregressions with Unknown Lag Order," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 161-179, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Borbély, Dóra & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2003. "Macroeconomic interval forecasting: the case of assessing the risk of deflation in Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1153, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Kamrul Hassan & Ariful Hoque & Ananth Rao, 2015. "Revisiting the Link Between Stock Prices and Goods Prices in OECD Countries," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(3), pages 135-150, September.
    3. Jeremy Berkowitz & Ionel Birgean & Lutz Kilian, 1999. "On the finite-sample accuracy of nonparametric resampling algorithms for economic time series," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Stefan Bruder & Michael Wolf, 2018. "Balanced Bootstrap Joint Confidence Bands for Structural Impulse Response Functions," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(5), pages 641-664, September.
    5. Medel, Carlos A., 2012. "¿Akaike o Schwarz? ¿Cuál elegir para predecir el PIB chileno? [Akaike or Schwarz? Which One is a Better Predictor of Chilean GDP?]," MPRA Paper 35950, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Joint Confidence Sets for Structural Impulse Responses," CESifo Working Paper Series 5746, CESifo.
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    44. Jha, Shikha & Mallick, Sushanta K. & Park, Donghyun & Quising, Pilipinas F., 2014. "Effectiveness of countercyclical fiscal policy: Evidence from developing Asia," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 82-98.
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    46. Carlos A. Medel Vera, 2011. "¿Akaike o Schwarz? ¿Cuál utilizar para predecir el PIB chileno?," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 591-615, octubre-d.
    47. Ivanov Ventzislav & Kilian Lutz, 2005. "A Practitioner's Guide to Lag Order Selection For VAR Impulse Response Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-36, March.
    48. Ács, Attila, 2014. "Pénzintézeti mérlegadatok monetáris politikai újraértelmezése. A brókerkereskedő szervezetek reálgazdasági és likviditási jelentősége [Reconsidering the role of financial institutions balance sheet," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 166-192.
    49. Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "How sensitive are consumer expenditures to retail energy prices?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 766-779, September.
    50. Katrin Assenmacher & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2009. "A VECX* model of the Swiss economy," Economic Studies 2009-06, Swiss National Bank.
    51. Carlos A. Medel & Sergio C. Salgado, 2013. "Does the Bic Estimate and Forecast Better than the Aic?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 28(1), pages 47-64, April.
    52. Michael Pedersen, 2019. "The impact of commodity price shocks in a copper-rich economy: the case of Chile," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1291-1318, October.
    53. Han Lin Shang, 2017. "Reconciling Forecasts of Infant Mortality Rates at National and Sub-National Levels: Grouped Time-Series Methods," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 36(1), pages 55-84, February.
    54. Schreiber, Sven, 2014. "Anticipating business-cycle turning points in real time using density forecasts from a VAR," Discussion Papers 2014/2, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    55. Granville, Brigitte & Mallick, Sushanta & Zeng, Ning, 2011. "Chinese exchange rate and price effects on G3 import prices," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 427-440.
    56. Barhoumi Karim, 2009. "How Structural Macroeconomic Shocks Can Explain Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Developing Countries: A Common Trend Approach," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-37, June.
    57. Ricci-Risquete, Alejandro & Ramajo, Julián, 2015. "The effects of fiscal policy on the Spanish economy: Keynesian or non-Keynesian behavior?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1019-1048.
    58. Bin Chen & Jinho Choi & Juan Carlos Escanciano, 2015. "Testing for Fundamental Vector Moving Average Representations," CAEPR Working Papers 2015-022, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    59. Brüggemann, Ralf, 2006. "Finite sample properties of impulse response intervals in SVECMs with long-run identifying restrictions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2006-021, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    60. Monika Blaszkiewicz-Schwartzman, 2007. "Explaining Exchange Rate Movements in New Member States of the European Union: Nominal and Real Convergence," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 144, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    61. Daniel Fernández, 2011. "Suficiencia del capital y previsiones de la banca uruguaya por su exposición al sector industrial," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 517-589, octubre-d.
    62. Hassan, Kamrul & Hoque, Ariful & Gasbarro, Dominic, 2017. "Sovereign default risk linkage: Implication for portfolio diversification," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-16.
    63. Michael Pedersen, 2015. "Propagation of Shocks to Food and Energy Prices: A Cross-Country Analysis," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(4), pages 272-289, August.
    64. Kerim Peren Arin & Timur Han Gur, 2009. "Exchange rate versus monetary aggregate targeting: the Turkish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(16), pages 2085-2092.
    65. Antonio Focacci & Angelo Focacci, 2024. "A Re-Appraisal of the Role of Monetary Policy: The Quantity Theory of Money through a Structural Vector Autoregressive Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-23, August.
    66. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    67. Efstathios Polyzos & Costas Siriopoulos, 2024. "Autoregressive Random Forests: Machine Learning and Lag Selection for Financial Research," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(1), pages 225-262, July.
    68. Benner, Joachim & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2005. "Was leisten Stimmungsindikatoren für die Prognose des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts in Deutschland? Eine Echtzeit-Analyse," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3725, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    69. Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna & Winker, Peter, 2013. "Constructing narrowest pathwise bootstrap prediction bands using threshold accepting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 221-233.
    70. Trautman, Dawn & Jeffrey, Scott R. & Unterschultz, James R., 2012. "Beneficial Management Practice (BMP) Adoption -- Direct Farm Cost/Benefit Tradeoffs," Project Report Series 139638, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
    71. Michael Pedersen & Miguel Ricaurte, 2013. "Efectos de Shocks al Precio del Petróleo sobre la Economía de Chile y sus Socios Comerciales," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 691, Central Bank of Chile.
    72. Tamara Burdisso & Eduardo Ariel Corso, 2011. "Incertidumbre y dolarización de cartera: el caso argentino en el último medio siglo," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 461-515, octubre-d.
    73. Douch, Mohamed, 2005. "The macroeconomic effects of monetary policy and financial crisis," MPRA Paper 1120, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    74. Jan Lohmeyer & Franz Palm & Jean‐Pierre Urbain, 2024. "Consistency of averaged impulse response estimators in vector autoregressive models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(5), pages 691-713, September.
    75. Staszewska-Bystrova Anna, 2013. "Modified Scheffé’s Prediction Bands," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 233(5-6), pages 680-690, October.
    76. Fresoli, Diego & Ruiz, Esther & Pascual, Lorenzo, 2015. "Bootstrap multi-step forecasts of non-Gaussian VAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 834-848.
    77. Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "Estimating structural macroeconomic shocks through long-run recursive restrictions on vector autoregressive models: the problem of identification," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 229-244.
    78. Kilian, Lutz & Kim, Yun Jung, 2009. "Do Local Projections Solve the Bias Problem in Impulse Response Inference?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    79. Benner, Joachim & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2003. "Prognosegüte alternativer Frühindikatoren für die Konjunktur in Deutschland," Kiel Working Papers 1139, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    80. Linderoth, Gabriella & Meuller, Malte, 2024. "Inflation-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Sweden: Insights from a Logistic Smooth Transition VAR Model," Working Paper Series 439, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    81. N.D. Geomelos & E. Xideas, 2014. "Forecasting spot prices in bulk shipping using multivariate and univariate models," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-37, December.
    82. Kilian, Lutz & Edelstein, Paul, 2007. "Retail Energy Prices and Consumer Expenditures," CEPR Discussion Papers 6255, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

  87. Kilian, Lutz & Chang, Pao-Li, 2000. "How accurate are confidence intervals for impulse responses in large VAR models?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 299-307, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Edda Claus & Mardi Dungey & Renée Fry, 2008. "Monetary Policy in Illiquid Markets: Options for a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 305-336, July.
    2. Craighead, William D. & Tien, Pao-Lin, 2015. "Nominal shocks and real exchange rates: Evidence from two centuries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 135-157.
    3. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Joint Confidence Sets for Structural Impulse Responses," CESifo Working Paper Series 5746, CESifo.
    4. Phillips, Kerk L. & Spencer, David E., 2010. "Bootstrapping Structural VARs: Avoiding a Potential Bias in Confidence Intervals for Impulse Response Functions," MPRA Paper 23503, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Raffaella Giacomini & Dimitris N. Politis & Halbert White, 2012. "A warp-speed method for conducting Monte Carlo experiments involving bootstrap estimators," CeMMAP working papers CWP11/12, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    6. Elena Pesavento & Barbara Rossi, 2006. "Small‐sample confidence intervals for multivariate impulse response functions at long horizons," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1135-1155, December.
    7. Cornand, Camille & Gandré, Pauline & Gimet, Céline, 2016. "Increase in home bias in the Eurozone debt crisis: The role of domestic shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 445-469.
    8. Pao-Lin Tien, 2009. "Using Long-Run Restrictions to Investigate the Sources of Exchange Rate Fluctuations," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2009-004, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    9. Brady Ryan R & Stimel Derek S, 2011. "How the Housing and Financial Wealth Effects Have Changed over Time," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-45, August.
    10. Helmut Luetkepohl, 2011. "Vector Autoregressive Models," Economics Working Papers ECO2011/30, European University Institute.
    11. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2009. "The local effects of monetary policy," Working Papers 2009-048, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    12. Kosta Josifidis & Jean-Pierre Allegret & Céline Gimet & Emilija Beker Pucar, 2014. "Macroeconomic policy responses to financial crises in emerging European economies," Post-Print halshs-00976661, HAL.
    13. Ryan R. Brady & Derek Stimel & Steven Sumner, 2012. "A Time Series Test of the Direct Wealth Effect," Departmental Working Papers 40, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    14. Korhonen, Iikka & Ledyaeva, Svetlana, 2010. "Trade linkages and macroeconomic effects of the price of oil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 848-856, July.
    15. Barbara Rossi & Elena Pesavento, 2004. "Do Technology Shocks Drive Hours Up or Down?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 96, Econometric Society.
    16. Céline Gimet & Marie-Hélène Gagnon, 2013. "The impacts of standard monetary and budgetary policies on liquidity and financial markets: International evidence from the credit freeze crisis," Post-Print halshs-00976740, HAL.
    17. Skrobotov, Anton (Скроботов, Антон) & Turuntseva, Marina (Турунцева, Марина), 2015. "Theoretical Aspects of Modeling of the SVAR [Теоретические Аспекты Моделирования Svar]," Published Papers mak8, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    18. Abeysinghe, Tilak, 2001. "Estimation of direct and indirect impact of oil price on growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 147-153, November.
    19. Cl aud, G. & Lemoine, M. & Pionnier, P.-A., 2013. "Which size and evolution of the government expenditure multiplier in France (1980-2010)?," Working papers 469, Banque de France.
    20. Pesavento, Elena & Rossi, Barbara, 2007. "Impulse response confidence intervals for persistent data: What have we learned?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2398-2412, July.
    21. Ryan R. Brady & Derek Stimel & Steven Sumner, 2014. "The Rise of the Housing-Wealth Effect: Counterfactual Impulse Response Analysis," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 4, pages 1-17, November.
    22. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2019. "The Uniform Validity of Impulse Response Inference in Autoregressions," Working Papers 1908, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    23. Brüggemann, Ralf, 2006. "Finite sample properties of impulse response intervals in SVECMs with long-run identifying restrictions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2006-021, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    24. Lieb, Lenard & Smeekes, Stephan, 2017. "Inference for Impulse Responses under Model Uncertainty," Research Memorandum 022, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    25. Zijun Wang, 2005. "A Note on Deficit, Implicit Debt, and Interest Rates," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 72(1), pages 186-196, July.
    26. Helmut Luetkepohl, 2007. "Econometric Analysis with Vector Autoregressive Models," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/11, European University Institute.
    27. Kilian, Lutz & Kim, Yun Jung, 2009. "Do Local Projections Solve the Bias Problem in Impulse Response Inference?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    28. Nankervis, John C., 2005. "Computational algorithms for double bootstrap confidence intervals," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 461-475, April.

  88. Diebold, Francis X & Kilian, Lutz, 2000. "Unit-Root Tests Are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 265-273, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  89. Jeremy Berkowitz & Lutz Kilian, 2000. "Recent developments in bootstrapping time series," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 1-48.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  90. Kilian, Lutz & Demiroglu, Ufuk, 2000. "Residual-Based Tests for Normality in Autoregressions: Asymptotic Theory and Simulation Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 40-50, January.

    Cited by:

    1. DUFOUR, Jean-Marie & KHALAF, Lynda & BEAULIEU, Marie-Claude, 2003. "Exact Skewness-Kurtosis Tests for Multivariate Normality and Goodness-of-Fit in Multivariate Regressions with Application to Asset Pricing Models," Cahiers de recherche 07-2003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    2. Bent Nielsen & Eric Engler, 2007. "The empirical process of autoregressive residuals," Economics Papers 2007-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    3. Jean-Marie DUFOUR & Lynda KHALAF & Marcel VOIA, 2013. "Finite-Sample Resampling-Based Combined Hypothesis Tests, with Applications to Serial Correlation and Predictability," Cahiers de recherche 13-2013, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    4. Bastianin, Andrea & Manera, Matteo, 2021. "A test of symmetry based on L-moments with an application to the business cycles of the G7 economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    5. Yen-Wu Ti & Tian-Shyr Dai & Kuan-Lun Wang & Hao-Han Chang & You-Jia Sun, 2024. "Improving Cointegration-Based Pairs Trading Strategy with Asymptotic Analyses and Convergence Rate Filters," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(5), pages 2717-2745, November.
    6. Zacharias Psaradakis & Marián Vávra, 2017. "Normality Tests for Dependent Data: Large-Sample and Bootstrap Approaches," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1706, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    7. Fresoli, Diego E. & Ruiz, Esther, 2016. "The uncertainty of conditional returns, volatilities and correlations in DCC models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 170-185.
    8. Mezgebo, Taddese, 2009. "A multivariate approach for identification of optimal locations with in Ethiopia’s wheat market to tackle soaring inflation on food price (Extended version)," MPRA Paper 17960, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Kheifets, Igor L., 2018. "Multivariate specification tests based on a dynamic Rosenblatt transform," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 1-14.
    10. Helmut Luetkepohl, 2011. "Vector Autoregressive Models," Economics Working Papers ECO2011/30, European University Institute.
    11. Sentana, Enrique & Mencía, Javier, 2005. "Estimation and Testing of Dynamic Models with Generalized Hyperbolic Innovations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5177, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Javier Mencía & Enrique Sentana, 2009. "Distributional tests in multivariate dynamic models with Normal and Student t innovations," Working Papers 0929, Banco de España.
    13. Søren Johansen & Bent Nielsen, 2014. "Outlier detection algorithms for least squares time series regression," CREATES Research Papers 2014-39, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    14. Andrea Bastianin, 2019. "Robust measures of skewness and kurtosis for macroeconomic and financial time series," Working Papers 408, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 06 May 2019.
    15. Bent Nielsen & Andrew Whitby, 2015. "A Joint Chow Test for Structural Instability," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-31, March.
    16. Alain Guay & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2025. "Estimation of Non-Gaussian SVAR Using Tensor Singular Value Decomposition," Working Papers 25-03, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised Feb 2025.
    17. Kim, Jae H., 2004. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for autoregression using asymptotically mean-unbiased estimators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 85-97.
    18. Psaradakis, Zacharias & Vávra, Marián, 2017. "A distance test of normality for a wide class of stationary processes," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 2(C), pages 50-60.
    19. Greg Hannsgen, 2011. "Infinite-variance, Alpha-stable Shocks in Monetary SVAR: Final Working Paper Version," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_682, Levy Economics Institute.
    20. Beaulieu, Marie-Claude & Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda, 2010. "Asset-pricing anomalies and spanning: Multivariate and multifactor tests with heavy-tailed distributions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 763-782, September.
    21. Ivanov Ventzislav & Kilian Lutz, 2005. "A Practitioner's Guide to Lag Order Selection For VAR Impulse Response Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-36, March.
    22. Søren Johansen & Lukasz Gatarek, 2014. "Optimal hedging with the cointegrated vector autoregressive model," CREATES Research Papers 2014-40, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    23. Bontemps, Christian & Meddahi, Nour, 2005. "Testing normality: a GMM approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 149-186, January.
    24. Søren Johansen & Bent Nielsen, 2016. "Asymptotic Theory of Outlier Detection Algorithms for Linear Time Series Regression Models," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 43(2), pages 321-348, June.
    25. Mezgebo, Taddese, 2009. "A multivariate approach for identification of optimal locations with in Ethiopia’s wheat market to tackle soaring inflation on food price," MPRA Paper 18663, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Oussama Chakroun & Georges Dionne & Amélie Dugas-Sampara, 2006. "Empirical Evaluation of Investor Rationality in the Asset Allocation Puzzle," Cahiers de recherche 0635, CIRPEE.
    27. Alain Guay, 2020. "Identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions Through Higher Unconditional Moments," Working Papers 20-19, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    28. Ren, Yunwen & Xiao, Zhiguo & Zhang, Xinsheng, 2013. "Two-step adaptive model selection for vector autoregressive processes," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 349-364.
    29. David H. Bernstein & Bent Nielsen, 2019. "Asymptotic Theory for Cointegration Analysis When the Cointegration Rank Is Deficient," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, January.
    30. Bai, Jushan & Chen, Zhihong, 2008. "Testing multivariate distributions in GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 19-36, March.
    31. Guay, Alain, 2021. "Identification of structural vector autoregressions through higher unconditional moments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(1), pages 27-46.
    32. Vassilios Bazinas & Bent Nielsen, 2022. "Causal Transmission in Reduced-Form Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-25, March.
    33. Ederington, Louis H. & Fernando, Chitru S. & Lee, Thomas K. & Linn, Scott C. & Zhang, Huiming, 2021. "The relation between petroleum product prices and crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    34. Fresoli, Diego & Ruiz, Esther & Pascual, Lorenzo, 2015. "Bootstrap multi-step forecasts of non-Gaussian VAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 834-848.
    35. Herwartz, Helmut & Plödt, Martin, 2016. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks: Evidence from a statistical identification approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 30-44.
    36. Giovanni Angelini & Giuseppe Cavaliere & Luca Fanelli, 2022. "Bootstrap inference and diagnostics in state space models: With applications to dynamic macro models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 3-22, January.
    37. Yong Bao, 2013. "On Sample Skewness and Kurtosis," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 415-448, December.

  91. Lutz Kilian, 1999. "Finite-Sample Properties of Percentile and Percentile-t Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Impulse Responses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 652-660, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Fabio Canova & David Lopez-Salido & Claudio Michelacci, 2006. "Schumpeterian technology shocks," Economics Working Papers 1012, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2007.
    2. Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2012. "Identifying the Shocks behind Business Cycle Asynchrony in Euroland," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 466, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    3. Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2006. "The Dynamic Effects of Neutral and Investment-Specific Technology Shocks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 413-451, June.
    4. Richard T. Baillie & George Kapetanios & Fotis Papailias, 2017. "Inference for impulse response coefficients from multivariate fractionally integrated processes," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1-3), pages 60-84, March.
    5. Lutz Kilian, 2019. "Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling," CESifo Working Paper Series 7902, CESifo.
    6. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Joint Confidence Sets for Structural Impulse Responses," CESifo Working Paper Series 5746, CESifo.
    7. Nadav Ben Zeev & Evi Pappa, 2017. "Chronicle of a War Foretold: The Macroeconomic Effects of Anticipated Defence Spending Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(603), pages 1568-1597, August.
    8. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & Mohammad Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 1999. "A long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 35, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh, revised Dec 2001.
    9. Elena Pesavento & Barbara Rossi, 2006. "Small‐sample confidence intervals for multivariate impulse response functions at long horizons," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1135-1155, December.
    10. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Schlaak, Thore, 2019. "Bootstrapping impulse responses of structural vector autoregressive models identified through GARCH," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 41-61.
    11. Ashoka Mody & Milan Nedeljkovic, 2018. "Central Bank Policies and Financial Markets: Lessons from the Euro Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 7400, CESifo.
    12. Lopez, Claude & Murray, Chris & Papell, David, 2009. "Median-Unbiased Estimation in DF-GLS Regressions and the PPP Puzzle," MPRA Paper 26091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Kilian, Lutz & Chang, Pao-Li, 2000. "How accurate are confidence intervals for impulse responses in large VAR models?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 299-307, December.
    14. Henri Keränen & Sakari Lähdemäki, 2020. "Identification of fiscal SVARs in small open economies using trading partner forecast errors as instruments," Working Papers 330, Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE, The Labour Institute for Economic Research LABORE.
    15. Claude Lopez & Christian J. Murray & David H. Papell, 2004. "State of the Art Unit Root Tests and Purchasing Power Parity," University of Cincinnati, Economics Working Papers Series 2004-04, University of Cincinnati, Department of Economics.
    16. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan Rubio-Ramírez & Frank Schorfheide, 2015. "Solution and Estimation Methods for DSGE Models," PIER Working Paper Archive 15-042, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 09 Dec 2015.
    17. Brad Hershbein & Bryan A. Stuart, 2024. "The Evolution of Local Labor Markets after Recessions," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 399-435, July.
    18. Horn, Sebastian & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Trebesch, Christoph, 2019. "China's overseas lending," Kiel Working Papers 2132, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    19. Carsen Jentsch & Kurt Graden Lunsford, 2019. "Asymptotically Valid Bootstrap Inference for Proxy SVARs," Working Papers 19-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    20. Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James C., 2008. "Likelihood-Based Confidence Sets for the Timing of Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 10372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Daniel Grabowski & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2020. "Skewness-adjusted bootstrap confidence intervals and confidence bands for impulse response functions," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 104(1), pages 5-32, March.
    22. Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2005. "Reduced-Rank Identification of Structural Shocks in VARs," Macroeconomics 0512011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Money, sticky wages, and the Great Depression," International Finance Discussion Papers 591, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    24. Haug, Alfred A. & Karagedikli, Ozer & Ranchhod, Satish, 2005. "Monetary policy transmission mechanisms and currency unions: A vector error correction approach to a Trans-Tasman currency union," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 55-74, February.
    25. Yohei Yamamoto, 2012. "Bootstrap Inference for Impulse Response Functions in Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd12-249, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    26. Sun, Dongchu & Ni, Shawn, 2014. "A Bayesian analysis of normalized VAR models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 247-259.
    27. Di Iorio, Francesca & Fachin, Stefano, 2008. "A note on the estimation of long-run relationships in dependent cointegrated panels," MPRA Paper 12053, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. Donggyu Sul & Peter C. B. Phillips & Chi‐Young Choi, 2005. "Prewhitening Bias in HAC Estimation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(4), pages 517-546, August.
    29. Brüggemann, Ralf & Jentsch, Carsten & Trenkler, Carsten, 2014. "Inference in VARs with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Working Papers 14-21, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    30. Paulo Silva, 2015. "The information content of the open interest of credit default swaps," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 29(4), pages 381-427, November.
    31. Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2002. "Technology shocks matter," Working Paper Series WP-02-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    32. Chor Foon Tang, 2011. "An exploration of dynamic relationship between tourist arrivals, inflation, unemployment and crime rates in Malaysia," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(1), pages 50-69, January.
    33. Ashoka Mody & Milan Nedeljkovic, 2018. "Central Bank Policies and Financial Markets: Lessons from the Euro Crisis," Working Papers 253, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    34. G. K. Randolph Tan, 2006. "Robust Inference for Measures of Persistence in Singapore Sectoral Property Price Indexes," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 305-321, October.
    35. Jonathan H. Wright, 2000. "Exact confidence intervals for impulse responses in a Gaussian vector autoregression," International Finance Discussion Papers 682, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    36. Pesavento, Elena & Rossi, Barbara, 2007. "Impulse response confidence intervals for persistent data: What have we learned?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2398-2412, July.
    37. Hanson, Michael S., 2006. "Varying monetary policy regimes: A vector autoregressive investigation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 407-427.
    38. Ni, Shawn & Sun, Dongchu, 2003. "Noninformative priors and frequentist risks of bayesian estimators of vector-autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 159-197, July.
    39. Tom Engsted & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2014. "Bias-Correction in Vector Autoregressive Models: A Simulation Study," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-27, March.
    40. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Moh, Young-Kyu, 2012. "Examining the evidence of purchasing power parity by recursive mean adjustment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1850-1857.
    41. Murray, Christian J. & Papell, David H., 2002. "The purchasing power parity persistence paradigm," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19, January.
    42. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2019. "The Uniform Validity of Impulse Response Inference in Autoregressions," Working Papers 1908, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    43. Nadav Ben Zeev & Hashmat Khan, 2012. "Investment-Specific News Shocks and U.S. Business Cycles," Carleton Economic Papers 12-05, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 25 Feb 2013.
    44. Helmut Lütkepohl & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2018. "Constructing Joint Confidence Bands for Impulse Response Functions of VAR Models: A Review," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1762, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    45. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
    46. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2024. "Local Projections," NBER Working Papers 32822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    47. Brad J. Hershbein & Bryan A. Stuart, 2020. "Recessions and Local Labor Market Hysteresis," Upjohn Working Papers 20-325, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    48. Oscar Jorda, 2007. "Inference for Impulse Responses," Working Papers 201, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    49. Lopez, C. & Murray, C J. & Papell, D H., 2011. "Median-UnbiaseDéestimation in DF-GLS Regressions and the PPP Puzzle," Working papers 338, Banque de France.
    50. Di Iorio, Francesca & Fachin, Stefano, 2012. "A note on the estimation of long-run relationships in panel equations with cross-section linkages," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-1, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    51. Niklas Ahlgren & Paul Catani, 2017. "Wild bootstrap tests for autocorrelation in vector autoregressive models," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1189-1216, December.
    52. Fabio Canova & David López-Salido & Claudio Michelacci, 2006. "On the robust effects of technology shocks on hours worked and output," Economics Working Papers 1013, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2008.
    53. Dungey, Mardi & Fry, Renee, 2000. "A Multi-Country Structural VAR Model," Departmental Working Papers 2001-04, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    54. Jayetileke, Harshanie L. & Wang, You-Gan & Zhu, Min, 2021. "Predictive regression with p-lags and order-q autoregressive predictors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 282-293.
    55. Fresoli, Diego & Ruiz, Esther & Pascual, Lorenzo, 2015. "Bootstrap multi-step forecasts of non-Gaussian VAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 834-848.
    56. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2020. "Refined Measures of Dynamic Connectedness based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, April.
    57. Kilian, Lutz & Kim, Yun Jung, 2009. "Do Local Projections Solve the Bias Problem in Impulse Response Inference?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    58. Stanislav Anatolyev, 2007. "The basics of bootstrapping (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 3, pages 1-12, September.
    59. Christian Gourieroux & Joann Jasiak, 2022. "Long Run Risk in Stationary Structural Vector Autoregressive Models," Papers 2202.09473, arXiv.org.
    60. Nankervis, John C., 2005. "Computational algorithms for double bootstrap confidence intervals," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 461-475, April.
    61. Burban, Valentin & De Backer, Bruno & Schupp, Fabian & Vladu, Andreea Liliana, 2022. "Decomposing market-based measures of inflation compensation into inflation expectations and risk premia," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 8.

  92. Kilian, Lutz, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Long-Horizon Regressions?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 491-510, Sept.-Oct.

    Cited by:

    1. Hamid Baghestani, 2009. "Evaluating random walk forecasts of exchange rates," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 26(3), pages 171-181, July.
    2. Norman R. Swanson & Nii Ayi Armah, 2011. "Predictive Inference Under Model Misspecification with an Application to Assessing the Marginal Predictive Content of Money for Output," Departmental Working Papers 201103, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    3. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2009. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Footloose or Evolving Relationship?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 786-830, June.
    4. Kathryn Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2005. "What Defines "News" in Foreign Exchange Markets?," NBER Working Papers 11769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Joakim Westerlund & Syed A. Basher, 2007. "Can panel data really improve the predictability of the monetary exchange rate model?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(5), pages 365-383.
    6. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Chen, Show-Lin, 2001. "Nominal exchange-rate prediction: evidence from a nonlinear approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 521-532, August.
    7. Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2004. "The Use of Predictive Regressions at Alternative Horizons in Finance and Economics," Finance 0409032, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    9. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
    10. Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013. "Changes in predictive ability with mixed frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 395-410.
    11. Meichi Huang, 2013. "Housing bubble implications: The perspective of housing price predictability," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 586-596.
    12. Mauro Bernardi & Leopoldo Catania, 2014. "The Model Confidence Set package for R," Papers 1410.8504, arXiv.org.
    13. Jank, Stephan, 2012. "Changes in the composition of publicly traded firms: Implications for the dividend-price ratio and return predictability," CFR Working Papers 12-08, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    14. Darvas, Zsolt & Schepp, Zoltán, 2024. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: Forecasting with long maturity forward rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    15. Goodness C. Aye & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta & Mehmet Balcilar, 2013. "Forecasting the US Real Private Residential Fixed Investment Using Large Number of Predictors," Working Papers 201348, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    16. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2001. "Evaluating long-horizon forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 01-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    17. Jack Fosten, 2016. "Model selection with factors and variables," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2016-07, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    18. Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Why Is It So Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 464, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    19. Hsiu-Hsin Ko, 2016. "Exchange Rate Predictability in Finite Samples," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 361-378, September.
    20. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2005. "Predicting the Equity Premium Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," NBER Working Papers 11468, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Benzid, Lamia & Bakari, Sayef, 2021. "Modeling the Asymmetric Relationship between the Covid-19 and the U.S Dollar Exchange Rate: an Empirical Analysis via the NARDL Approach," MPRA Paper 105566, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Mario Cerrato, 2005. "Black Market And Official Exchange Rates:Long-Run Equilibrium And Short-Run Dynamics," Public Policy Discussion Papers 05-04, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
    23. Isabel Figuerola‐Ferretti & Alejandro Rodríguez & Eduardo Schwartz, 2021. "Oil price analysts' forecasts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(9), pages 1351-1374, September.
    24. Jian Wang, 2005. "Can Long Horizon Data Beat Random Walk Under Engel-West Explanation?," International Finance 0501002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Ghosh, Taniya & Bhadury, Soumya, 2018. "Money's causal role in exchange rate: Do divisia monetary aggregates explain more?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 402-417.
    26. Carriero, A. & Kapetanios, G. & Marcellino, M., 2009. "Forecasting exchange rates with a large Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 400-417.
    27. Cyril Dell'Eva & Gilles de Truchis & Benjamin Keddad, 2017. "On exchange rate comovements: New evidence from a Taylor rule fundamentals model with adaptive learning," Post-Print hal-04847446, HAL.
    28. Lucio Sarno, 2003. "Nonlinear Exchange Rate Models: A Selective Overview," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 93(4), pages 3-46, July-Augu.
    29. Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2013. "Taylor rules and exchange rate predictability in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1008-1031.
    30. Kilian, Lutz & Gonçalves, Sílvia, 2002. "Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,26, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    31. Fatum, Rasmus & Scholnick, Barry, 2003. "Do Exchange Rates Respond to Day-to-Day Changes in Monetary Policy Expectations? Evidence from the Federal Funds Futures Market," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4cc3291n, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    32. Abhyankar, Abhay & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on the Economic Value of Predictability," CEPR Discussion Papers 4365, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    33. Chen, Yong & Eaton, Gregory W. & Paye, Bradley S., 2018. "Micro(structure) before macro? The predictive power of aggregate illiquidity for stock returns and economic activity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 48-73.
    34. Kurmas Akdogan & Yunus Aksoy, 2007. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals : Is there a Role for Nonlinearities in Real Time?," Working Papers 0703, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    35. Costantini, Mauro & Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Hlouskova, Jaroslava, 2014. "Can Macroeconomists Get Rich Forecasting Exchange Rates?," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 176, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    36. Ardic, Oya Pinar & Ergin, Onur & Senol, G. Bahar, 2008. "Exchange Rate Forecasting: Evidence from the Emerging Central and Eastern European Economies," MPRA Paper 7505, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    37. Della Corte, P. & Sarno, L. & Sestieri, G., 2011. "The Predictive Information Content of External Imbalances for Exchange Rate Returns: How Much Is It Worth?," Working papers 313, Banque de France.
    38. Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "Federal Funds Rate Prediction," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 449-471, June.
    39. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Wang, Yi-Chiuan, 2013. "Fundamentals, forecast combinations and nominal exchange-rate predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 129-145.
    40. Byrne, Joseph P. & Korobilis, Dimitris & Ribeiro, Pinho J., 2014. "Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World," SIRE Discussion Papers 2014-021, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    41. Maximo Camacho & Marcos Dal Bianco & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 2012. "Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals," Working Papers 1201, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    42. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2015. "Nested forecast model comparisons: A new approach to testing equal accuracy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 160-177.
    43. Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chou, Yu-Hsi, 2023. "Liquidity yield and exchange rate predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    44. Clark, Todd & McCracken, Michael, 2013. "Advances in Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1107-1201, Elsevier.
    45. Nelson Mark & Donggyu Sul, 1998. "Norminal Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: Evidence from a Small Post-Bretton Woods Panel," Working Papers 98-19, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
    46. Kirsten Thompson & Renee van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Identifying a financial conditions index for South Africa," Working Papers 201333, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    47. Domenico Ferraro & Ken Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Can oil prices forecast exchange rates?," Economics Working Papers 1461, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2015.
    48. Darvas, Zsolt & Schepp, Zoltán, 2007. "Kelet-közép-európai devizaárfolyamok előrejelzése határidős árfolyamok segítségével [Forecasting the exchange rates of three Central-Eastern European currencies with forward exchange rates]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 501-528.
    49. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jae H. Kim, 2016. "Stock Return Predictability: Evaluation based on prediction intervals," Working Papers hal-01295037, HAL.
    50. Eric Hillebrand & Tae-Hwy Lee & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2012. "Let's Do It Again: Bagging Equity Premium Predictors," CREATES Research Papers 2012-41, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    51. William Barnett & Chang Ho Kwag, 2005. "Exchange Rate Determination from Monetary Fundamentals: an Aggregation Theoretic Approach," International Trade 0505004, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Oct 2005.
    52. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2013. "Are product spreads useful for forecasting? An empirical evaluation of the Verleger hypothesis," CFS Working Paper Series 2013/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    53. Darvas, Zsolt & Schepp, Zoltán, 2020. "Forecasting exchange rates of major currencies with long maturity forward rates," Corvinus Economics Working Papers (CEWP) 2020/01, Corvinus University of Budapest.
    54. Theologos Dergiades & Panos K. Pouliasis, 2021. "Should Stock Returns Predictability be hooked on Long Horizon Regressions?," Discussion Paper Series 2021_03, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Feb 2021.
    55. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2009. "How Stable Are Monetary Models of the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate?: A Time-Varying Coefficient Approach," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 944, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    56. Sarantis, Nicholas, 2006. "On the short-term predictability of exchange rates: A BVAR time-varying parameters approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2257-2279, August.
    57. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Sep), pages 51-74.
    58. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
    59. Norman Swanson & Richard Urbach, 2013. "Prediction and Simulation Using Simple Models Characterized by Nonstationarity and Seasonality," Departmental Working Papers 201323, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    60. Kolev, Gueorgui I. & Karapandza, Rasa, 2017. "Out-of-sample equity premium predictability and sample split–invariant inference," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 188-201.
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    6. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, "undated". "Measuring Predictability: Theory and Macroeconomic Applications," CARESS Working Papres 97-19, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
    7. Coenen, Günter, 2000. "Asymptotic confidence bands for the estimated autocovariance and autocorrelation functions of vector autoregressive models," Working Paper Series 9, European Central Bank.
    8. DUFOUR, Jean-Marie & PELLETIER, Denis & RENAULT, Éric, 2003. "Short Run and Long Run Causality in Time Series : Inference," Cahiers de recherche 14-2003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
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    15. Ingo Fender, 2000. "The impact of corporate risk management on monetary policy transmission: some empirical evidence," BIS Working Papers 95, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Pascual, Lorenzo & Fresoli, Diego Eduardo, 2011. "Bootstrap forecast of multivariate VAR models without using the backward representation," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws113426, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    17. Eickmeier, Sandra & Hofmann, Boris, 2010. "Monetary policy, housing booms and financial (im)balances," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,07, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Jeremy Berkowitz & Lutz Kilian, 2000. "Recent developments in bootstrapping time series," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 1-48.
    19. Matthias Gubler, 2014. "Carry Trade Activities: A Multivariate Threshold Model Analysis," Working Papers 2014-06, Swiss National Bank.
    20. Jae H. Kim, 2004. "Bias-corrected bootstrap prediction regions for vector autoregression," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 141-154.
    21. Pascual, Lorenzo & Romo, Juan & Ruiz, Esther, 2005. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for power-transformed time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 219-235.
    22. Greg Hannsgen, 2011. "Infinite-variance, Alpha-stable Shocks in Monetary SVAR: Final Working Paper Version," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_682, Levy Economics Institute.
    23. Shamsuddin, Abul F. M. & Kim, Jae H., 2003. "Integration and interdependence of stock and foreign exchange markets: an Australian perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 237-254, July.
    24. Ji, Philip Inyeob & Kim, Jae H., 2009. "Real interest rate linkages in the Pacific-Basin region," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 440-448, June.
    25. Andrés Felipe Londono & Jorge Andrés Tamayo & Carlos Alberto Velásquez, 2012. "Dinámica de la política monetaria e inflación objetivo en Colombia: una aproximación FAVAR," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 30(68), pages 14-71, June.
    26. Brüggemann, Ralf & Jentsch, Carsten & Trenkler, Carsten, 2014. "Inference in VARs with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Working Papers 14-21, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    27. Jae H Kim & Iain Fraser & Rob J. Hyndman, 2010. "Improved Interval Estimation of Long Run Response from a Dynamic Linear Model: A Highest Density Region Approach," Working Papers 2010.06, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    28. Kim, Jae H. & Ji, Philip Inyeob, 2011. "Mean-reversion in international real interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1959-1966, July.
    29. Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Shocks to Large Banks’ Capital," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(4), pages 546-569, August.
    30. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Jouini, Tarek, 2006. "Finite-sample simulation-based inference in VAR models with application to Granger causality testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 229-254.
    31. Jonathan H. Wright, 2000. "Exact confidence intervals for impulse responses in a Gaussian vector autoregression," International Finance Discussion Papers 682, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    32. Pesavento, Elena & Rossi, Barbara, 2007. "Impulse response confidence intervals for persistent data: What have we learned?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2398-2412, July.
    33. Tom Engsted & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2014. "Bias-Correction in Vector Autoregressive Models: A Simulation Study," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-27, March.
    34. Alain Guay, 2020. "Identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions Through Higher Unconditional Moments," Working Papers 20-19, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    35. David Brownstone & Robert Valletta, 2001. "The Bootstrap and Multiple Imputations: Harnessing Increased Computing Power for Improved Statistical Tests," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 129-141, Fall.
    36. Holtemöller, Oliver & Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Drechsel, Katja & Drygalla, Andrej & Giesen, Sebastian & Hennecke, Peter & Kiesel, Konstantin & Loose, Brigitte & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Zeddies, Götz, 2015. "Ökonomische Wirksamkeit der Konjunktur stützenden finanzpolitischen Maßnahmen der Jahre 2008 und 2009. Forschungsvorhaben im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums der Finanzen," IWH Online 4/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    37. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2019. "The Uniform Validity of Impulse Response Inference in Autoregressions," Working Papers 1908, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    38. Brüggemann, Ralf, 2006. "Finite sample properties of impulse response intervals in SVECMs with long-run identifying restrictions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2006-021, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    39. Philip Inyeob Ji & Sangbae Kim, 2013. "Mean-reversion in closed-end fund discount: evidence from half-life," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(32), pages 4503-4515, November.
    40. Guay, Alain, 2021. "Identification of structural vector autoregressions through higher unconditional moments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(1), pages 27-46.
    41. Diego Fresoli, 2022. "Bootstrap VAR forecasts: The effect of model uncertainties," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 279-293, March.
    42. Niklas Ahlgren & Paul Catani, 2017. "Wild bootstrap tests for autocorrelation in vector autoregressive models," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1189-1216, December.
    43. Fresoli, Diego & Ruiz, Esther & Pascual, Lorenzo, 2015. "Bootstrap multi-step forecasts of non-Gaussian VAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 834-848.
    44. Kilian, Lutz & Kim, Yun Jung, 2009. "Do Local Projections Solve the Bias Problem in Impulse Response Inference?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

  95. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Accounting for Lag Order Uncertainty in Autoregressions: the Endogenous Lag Order Bootstrap Algorithm," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 531-548, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2008. "Sieve bootstrap t-tests on long-run average parameters," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 3354-3370, March.
    2. João Henrique G. Mazzeu & Gloria González-Rivera & Esther Ruiz & Helena Veiga, 2020. "A bootstrap approach for generalized Autocontour testing Implications for VIX forecast densities," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(10), pages 971-990, November.
    3. Hannes Leeb & Benedikt M. Potscher, 2003. "Can One Estimate the Conditional Distribution of Post-Model-Selection Estimators?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1444, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Zheng, Xinwei & Su, Dan, 2017. "Impacts of oil price shocks on Chinese stock market liquidity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 136-174.
    5. Dovern, Jonas, 2006. "Predicting GDP components: do leading indicators increase predictability?," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 436, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Kurmann, Andre, 2005. "Quantifying the uncertainty about the fit of a new Keynesian pricing model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1119-1134, September.
    7. Jeremy Berkowitz & Lutz Kilian, 2000. "Recent developments in bootstrapping time series," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 1-48.
    8. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Bootstrapping Autoregressive Processes with Possible Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 377-391, January.
    9. Christian Kascha & Carsten Trenkler, 2009. "Bootstrapping the likelihood ratio cointegration test in error correction models with unknown lag order," Working Paper 2009/12, Norges Bank.
    10. Daniel Grabowski & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2020. "Skewness-adjusted bootstrap confidence intervals and confidence bands for impulse response functions," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 104(1), pages 5-32, March.
    11. Kim, Jae H., 2004. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for autoregression using asymptotically mean-unbiased estimators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 85-97.
    12. Liu, Shen & Maharaj, Elizabeth Ann & Inder, Brett, 2014. "Polarization of forecast densities: A new approach to time series classification," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 345-361.
    13. Schreiber, Sven, 2014. "Anticipating business-cycle turning points in real time using density forecasts from a VAR," Discussion Papers 2014/2, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    14. Brüggemann, Ralf, 2006. "Finite sample properties of impulse response intervals in SVECMs with long-run identifying restrictions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2006-021, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    15. Trucíos, Carlos & Hotta, Luiz K., 2016. "Bootstrap prediction in univariate volatility models with leverage effect," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 91-103.
    16. Helmut Lütkepohl & Anna Staszewska-Bystrova & Peter Winker, 2018. "Constructing Joint Confidence Bands for Impulse Response Functions of VAR Models: A Review," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1762, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    17. Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna & Winker, Peter, 2013. "Constructing narrowest pathwise bootstrap prediction bands using threshold accepting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 221-233.
    18. Dominik Bertsche & Ralf Brüggemann & Christian Kascha, 2023. "Directed graphs and variable selection in large vector autoregressive models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 223-246, March.
    19. Diego Fresoli, 2022. "Bootstrap VAR forecasts: The effect of model uncertainties," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 279-293, March.
    20. Jan Lohmeyer & Franz Palm & Jean‐Pierre Urbain, 2024. "Consistency of averaged impulse response estimators in vector autoregressive models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(5), pages 691-713, September.
    21. Fresoli, Diego & Ruiz, Esther & Pascual, Lorenzo, 2015. "Bootstrap multi-step forecasts of non-Gaussian VAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 834-848.
    22. Andrés Alonso & Daniel Peña & Juan Romo, 2006. "Introducing model uncertainty by moving blocks bootstrap," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 167-179, March.
    23. Clements, Michael P. & Kim, Jae H., 2007. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for autoregressive time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3580-3594, April.

  96. Lutz Kilian & Lee E. Ohanian & Alan C. Stockman, 1994. "The effects of real and monetary shocks in a business cycle model with some sticky prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1209-1240.

    Cited by:

    1. Williamson, Stephen D., 1996. "Real business cycle research comes of age: A review essay," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 161-170, August.
    2. Nao Sudo, 2012. "Sectoral Comovement, Monetary Policy Shocks, and Input–Output Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(6), pages 1225-1244, September.
    3. John W. Keating & Isaac K. Kanyama, 2015. "Is sticky price adjustment important for output fluctuations?," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 392-418, July.
    4. BOUAKEZ, Hafed & CARDIA Emanuela & RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco, 2005. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy in a Multi-Sector Economy," Cahiers de recherche 2005-16, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    5. Matthew Canzoneri & Robert Cumby, 2008. "Macroeconomic Implications of a Key Currency," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0807, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    6. Jose A. Murillo & Sara G. Castellanos, 2004. "Inflation Dynamics’ Micro Foundations: How Important is Imperfect Competition Really?," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 78, Econometric Society.
    7. Carlos Carvalho, 2005. "Heterogeneity in Price Setting and the Real Effects of Monetary Shocks," Macroeconomics 0509017, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Oct 2005.
    8. Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 1999. "On exchange rate regimes, exchange rate fluctuations, and fundamentals," Working Papers 99-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    9. Federico di Pace, 2008. "Revisiting the Comovement Puzzle: the Input-Output Structure as an Additional Solution," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0807, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    10. Miles Kimball & Christopher House & Christoph Boehm & Robert Barsky, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Durable Goods," 2016 Meeting Papers 745, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Massimiliano Marzo, 2003. "Challenges for Monetary Policy and the Enlarged Euroland," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp17d, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 May 2003.
    12. Nathan S. Balke & Mark A. Wynne, 1996. "Supply shocks and the distribution of price changes," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q I, pages 10-18.
    13. Hirokazu Ishise & Nao Sudo, 2008. "Inventory-Theoretic Model of Money Demand, Multiple Goods, and Price Dynamics," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-19, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    14. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 1997. "Shrinking money and monetary business cycles," Working Papers 579, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    15. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2002. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," NBER Working Papers 9069, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Lester, Robert, 2014. "Home production and sticky price models: Implications for monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 107-121.
    17. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1996. "Sticky Price and Limited Participation Models of Money: A Comparison," NBER Working Papers 5804, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2002. "Why are business cycles alike across exchange-rate regimes?," Working Papers 02-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    19. Gillman, Max & Otto, Glenn, 2003. "Money Demand in a Banking Time Economy," Discussion Paper Series 26221, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    20. Masayuki Inui & Nao Sudo & Tomoaki Yamada, 2017. "Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality in Japan," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 17-E-3, Bank of Japan.
    21. Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2001. "Why Is the Business-Cycle Behavior of Fundamentals Alike Across Exchange-Rate Regimes?," Working Papers 53, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    22. Carlos Viana de Carvalho, 2004. "The Effects of Heterogeneity in Price Setting on Price and Inflation Inertia," Macroeconomics 0412013, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Oct 2005.
    23. Massimiliano Marzo, 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Price and Wage Rigidities," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 35(1), pages 63-95, February.
    24. Ugochi Emenogu & Leo Michelis, 2019. "Financial Frictions, Durable Goods and Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 19-31, Bank of Canada.
    25. Shi Shouyong, 1997. "Search For A Monetary Propagation Mechanism," Working Paper 966, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    26. Robert Barsky & Christopher L. House & Miles Kimball, 2005. "Sticky Price Models and Durable Goods," Macroeconomics 0501031, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Reicher, Christopher Phillip & Utlaut, Johannes Friederich, 2011. "The effect of inflation on real commodity prices," Kiel Working Papers 1704, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    28. Canzoneri, Matthew & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad & López-Salido, David, 2013. "Key currency status: An exorbitant privilege and an extraordinary risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 371-393.
    29. Dale W. Henderson & Jinill Kim, 2002. "Inflation targeting and nominal income growth targeting: when and why are they suboptimal?," International Finance Discussion Papers 719, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    30. Bouakez, Hafedh & Cardia, Emanuela & Ruge-Murcia, Francisco, 2014. "Sectoral price rigidity and aggregate dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-22.
    31. Ekaterina V. Peneva, 2009. "Factor intensity and price rigidity: evidence and theory," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    32. Andersen, Torben M., 1998. "Persistency in sticky price models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 593-603, May.
    33. Cooley, Thomas F. & Hansen, Gary D., 1998. "The role of monetary shocks in equilibrium business cycle theory: Three examples," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 605-617, May.
    34. Robert Barsky & Christopher House & Miles Kimball, 2003. "Do Flexible Durable Goods Prices Undermine Sticky Price Models?," Macroeconomics 0302003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    35. Olivier Jeanne, 1997. "Generating Real Persistent Effects of Monetary Shocks: How Much Nominal Rigidity Do We Really Need?," NBER Working Papers 6258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Aoki, Kosuke, 2001. "Optimal monetary policy responses to relative-price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 55-80, August.
    37. Héctor Bravo L. & Carlos García T. & Verónica Mies M. & Matías Tapia G., 2003. "Heterogeneity in Monetary Transmission: Sectoral and Regional Effects," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 6(3), pages 5-26, December.
    38. Reicher Christopher Phillip & Utlaut Johannes Friederich, 2013. "Monetary policy shocks and real commodity prices," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 715-749, October.
    39. Peneva, Ekaterina, 2011. "Some evidence on factor intensity and price rigidity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1652-1658, October.
    40. Leo Michelis & Ugochi T. Emenogu, 2019. "Financial Frictions, Durable Goods and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 075, Toronto Metropolitan University, Department of Economics.
    41. Felipe Schwartzman & Carlos Carvalho, 2008. "Heterogeneous Price Setting Behavior and Monetary Non-neutrality: Some General Results," 2008 Meeting Papers 1040, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    42. M. Marzo, 2004. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Simple Distorted Economy," Working Papers 511, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    43. Carvalho Carlos, 2006. "Heterogeneity in Price Stickiness and the Real Effects of Monetary Shocks," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-58, December.
    44. Dexter, Albert S. & Levi, Maurice D. & Nault, Barrie R., 2002. "Sticky prices: the impact of regulation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 797-821, May.
    45. Laing, Derek & Li, Victor E. & Wang, Ping, 2007. "Inflation and productive activity in a multiple-matching model of money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1949-1961, October.
    46. Michael Jenkins & Christopher Tsoukis, 2000. "Nominal inertia and shock persistence in UK business cycles," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(7), pages 901-907.

Chapters

  1. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2023. "The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park: Econometric Methodology in Empirical Applications, volume 45, pages 65-95, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Lutz Kilian, 2013. "Structural vector autoregressions," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 22, pages 515-554, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2013. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 427-507, Elsevier.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Lutz Kilian, 2010. "Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Do We Really Know That Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 137-198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.Sorry, no citations of chapters recorded.

Books

  1. Kilian,Lutz & Lütkepohl,Helmut, 2018. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107196575, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Raffaella Giacomini & Toru Kitagawa & Matthew Read, 2023. "Identification and Inference under Narrative Restrictions," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2023-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Andrea Cipollini & Fabio Parla, 2018. "Housing Market Shocks in Italy: a GVAR approach," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0069, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    3. Berner, Anne & Bruns, Stephan B. & Moneta, Alessio & Stern, David I., 2021. "Do energy efficiency improvements reduce energy use? Empirical evidence on the economy-wide rebound effect in Europe and the United States," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 422, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    4. Bolboaca Maria & Fischer Sarah, 2021. "Unraveling News: Reconciling Conflicting Evidence," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 695-743, June.
    5. Kovalenko, Tim, 2021. "Uncertainty shocks and employment fluctuations in Germany: The role of establishment size," Discussion Papers 119, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Chair of Labour and Regional Economics.
    6. Hiroyuki Kawakatsu, 2022. "Local projection variance impulse response," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 1219-1244, March.
    7. Bernd Funovits, 2020. "Identifiability and Estimation of Possibly Non-Invertible SVARMA Models: A New Parametrisation," Papers 2002.04346, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    8. Yayi Yan & Jiti Gao & Bin Peng, 2021. "On Time-Varying VAR Models: Estimation, Testing and Impulse Response Analysis," Papers 2111.00450, arXiv.org.
    9. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2019. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates," Working Papers 1914, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    10. Dominik Bertsche & Robin Braun, 2018. "Identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions by Stochastic Volatility," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2018-03, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    11. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2021. "The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23," CESifo Working Paper Series 9455, CESifo.
    12. Thomas H. W. Ziesemer, 2023. "Semi-endogenous growth in a non-Walrasian DSEM for Brazil: estimation and simulation of changes in foreign income, human capital, R&D, and terms of trade," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 1147-1183, April.
    13. Boer, Lukas & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2021. "Qualitative versus quantitative external information for proxy vector autoregressive analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    14. Lukas Hoesch & Adam Lee & Geert Mesters, 2022. "Robust inference for non-Gaussian SVAR models," Economics Working Papers 1847, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    15. Rodrigo da Silva Souza & Leonardo Bornacki Mattos, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks on an emerging market economy," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 803-824, April.
    16. Cardi, Olivier & Restout, Romain, 2023. "Sectoral fiscal multipliers and technology in open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    17. Noori, Mohammad, 2024. "Stock-oil comovements through fear, uncertainty, and expectations: Evidence from conditional comoments," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 529-551.
    18. Davis, Richard & Ng, Serena, 2023. "Time series estimation of the dynamic effects of disaster-type shocks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 180-201.
    19. Barbieri Góes, Maria Cristina, 2023. "A tale of three prices: Monetary policy and autonomous consumption in the US," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 115-127.
    20. Martin Bruns & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2023. "Have the Effects of Shocks to Oil Price Expectations Changed?: Evidence from Heteroskedastic Proxy Vector Autoregressions," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2036, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    21. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2019. "The impact of economic policy uncertainty and commodity prices on CARB country stock market volatility," MPRA Paper 96577, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Haug, Alfred A. & Ucal, Meltem, 2019. "The role of trade and FDI for CO2 emissions in Turkey: Nonlinear relationships," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 297-307.
    23. Regina Pleninger & Sina Streicher & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2021. "Do COVID-19 Containment Measures Work? Evidence from Switzerland," KOF Working papers 21-494, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    24. Jiang, Yong & Wang, Gang-Jin & Ma, Chaoqun & Yang, Xiaoguang, 2021. "Do credit conditions matter for the impact of oil price shocks on stock returns? Evidence from a structural threshold VAR model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-15.
    25. Thomas S. Gundersen, 2020. "The Impact of U.S. Supply Shocks on the Global Oil Price," The Energy Journal, , vol. 41(1), pages 151-174, January.
    26. Konstantinos Chisiridis & Kostas Mouratidis & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2018. "The North-South Divide, the Euro and the World," Working Papers 2018015, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    27. Adam Kucera & Evzen Kocenda & Ales Marsal, 2022. "Yield Curve Dynamics and Fiscal Policy Shocks," Working Papers IES 2022/04, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2022.
    28. Andres–Escayola, Erik & Berganza, Juan Carlos & Campos, Rodolfo G. & Molina, Luis, 2023. "A BVAR toolkit to assess macrofinancial risks in Brazil and Mexico," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(1).
    29. Camehl, Annika & Rieth, Malte, 2021. "Disentangling Covid-19, economic mobility, and containment policy shocks," IWH Discussion Papers 2/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    30. Thomas H.W. Ziesemer, 2024. "Internal rates of return for public R&D from VECM estimates for 17 OECD Countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1-16, October.
    31. Deleidi, Matteo & Iafrate, Francesca & Levrero, Enrico Sergio, 2020. "Public investment fiscal multipliers: An empirical assessment for European countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 354-365.
    32. Zhou, Siwen, 2019. "Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme in a Dynamic Nelson–Siegel Modelling Framework," MPRA Paper 92530, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. Diegel, Max & Nautz, Dieter, 2020. "The role of long-term inflation expectations for the transmission of monetary policy shocks," Discussion Papers 2020/19, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    34. Chris Redl, 2019. "Uncertainty Matters: Evidence from Close Elections," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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