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Climate Transition Risks and the Energy Sector

Author

Listed:
  • Viral V. Acharya
  • Stefano Giglio
  • Stefano Pastore
  • Johannes Stroebel
  • Zhenhao Tan
  • Tiffany Yong

Abstract

We build a general equilibrium model to study how climate transition risks affect energy prices and the valuations of different firms in the energy sector. We consider two types of fossil fuel firms: incumbents that have developed oil reserves they can extract today or tomorrow, and new entrants that must invest in exploration and drilling today to have reserves to potentially extract tomorrow. There are also renewable energy firms that produce emission-free energy but cannot currently serve non-electrifiable sectors of the economy. We analyze three sources of climate transition risk: (i) changes in the probability of a technological breakthrough that allows renewable energy firms to serve all economic sectors; (ii) changes in expected future taxes on carbon emissions; and (iii) restrictions on today’s development of additional fossil fuel production capacity. We show that the different transition risk—and, importantly, uncertainty about their realizations—have distinct effects on firms’ decisions, on their valuations, and on equilibrium energy prices. We provide empirical support for the heterogeneous effects of different transition risks on energy prices and stock returns of firms in different energy sub-sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Viral V. Acharya & Stefano Giglio & Stefano Pastore & Johannes Stroebel & Zhenhao Tan & Tiffany Yong, 2025. "Climate Transition Risks and the Energy Sector," CESifo Working Paper Series 11646, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11646
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giovanna Bua & Daniel Kapp & Federico Ramella & Lavinia Rognone, 2024. "Transition versus physical climate risk pricing in European financial markets: a text-based approach," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(17), pages 2076-2110, November.
    2. Georgij Alekseev & Stefano Giglio & Quinn Maingi & Julia Selgrad & Johannes Stroebel, 2022. "A Quantity-Based Approach to Constructing Climate Risk Hedge Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 30703, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; renewable energy; green transition; policy uncertainty; fossil fuel firms; brown firms; carbon tax; drilling restrictions; oil prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources
    • Q38 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy (includes OPEC Policy)
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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