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Forecasting Global Flows

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  • Edith Skriner

Abstract

The theory suggests that investment activities and monetary policy influence the development of the global business cycle. The oil price and other raw material prices also play a key role in the economic development and there is a comovement among oil consumption and global output. Therefore, the aim of this study is to explain the development of this set of variables by ARs, small-scale VARs and ECMs. The lag length and the rank of the time series models have been determined using information criteria. Then one-step ahead forecasts have been generated. It was found, that the ARs generate the best forecasts at the beginning of the forecasting horizon. However, when the forecasting horizon increases the VARs outperform the ARs. Comparing the forecasting performance of the ECMs, it was found that the forecasting ability of the ECMs in first differences outperform the level based ECMs when the forecasting horizon increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Edith Skriner, 2008. "Forecasting Global Flows," FIW Working Paper series 009, FIW.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2008:i:009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Economics; Time Series Models; Forecasts; Forecast Evaluation; Global Flows;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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