Forecasting Global Flows
The theory suggests that investment activities and monetary policy influence the development of the global business cycle. The oil price and other raw material prices also play a key role in the economic development and there is a comovement among oil consumption and global output. Therefore, the aim of this study is to explain the development of this set of variables by ARs, small-scale VARs and ECMs. The lag length and the rank of the time series models have been determined using information criteria. Then one-step ahead forecasts have been generated. It was found, that the ARs generate the best forecasts at the beginning of the forecasting horizon. However, when the forecasting horizon increases the VARs outperform the ARs. Comparing the forecasting performance of the ECMs, it was found that the forecasting ability of the ECMs in first differences outperform the level based ECMs when the forecasting horizon increases.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| |
|Order Information:|| Postal: FIW Project Office Austrian Institute of Economic Research Arsenal Objekt 20 A-1030 Vienna|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Eswar S. Prasad & Jeffery A. Gable, 1998.
"International Evidence on the Determinants of Trade Dynamics,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(3), pages 401-439, September.
- Eswar Prasad & Jeffery A. Gable, 1997. "International Evidenceon the Determinants of Trade Dynamics," IMF Working Papers 97/172, International Monetary Fund.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2005.
"A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4976, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2006. "A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 499-526.
- Massimiliano Marcellino & James Stock & Mark Watson, 2005. "A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," Working Papers 285, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Mody, Ashoka & Murshid, Antu Panini, 2005.
"Growing up with capital flows,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 249-266, January.
- David Hendry & Michael Clements, 2001.
"Pooling of Forecasts,"
Economics Series Working Papers
2002-W09, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2003.
"On the selection of forecasting models,"
Working Paper Series
0214, European Central Bank.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521634809 is not listed on IDEAS
- Christopher A. Sims, 1992.
"Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: The Effects of Monetary Policy,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1011, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
- C. John McDermott & Paul Cashin & Alasdair Scott, 1999.
"Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices,"
IMF Working Papers
99/155, International Monetary Fund.
- Paul Cashin & C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/8, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- James D. Hamilton, 2000.
"What is an Oil Shock?,"
NBER Working Papers
7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Waston, Mark, 1997.
"Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks,"
97-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
- Hendry, David F., 2006. "Robustifying forecasts from equilibrium-correction systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 399-426.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2008:i:009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.