Oil Prices and Economic Activity: A Brief Update
Using recent data, this paper investigates whether changes in oil prices have the expected effects on the US economy. Cointegration analysis and vector error correction models are employed in order to evaluate the impact of changing oil prices on US output and inflation. Further, impulse response analysis is performed to assess how shocks to oil prices affect the aggregate price level and aggregate economic activity. Our findings indicate, as expected, that regardless of the sample period considered, an oil price shock leads to higher inflation and lower industrial production in the US economy.
Volume (Year): 30 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kevin L. Kliesen, 2008.
"Oil and the U.S. macroeconomy: an update and a simple forecasting exercise,"
2008-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Kevin L. Kliesen, 2008. "Oil and the U.S. macroeconomy: an update and a simple forecasting exercise," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 505-516.
- James D. Hamilton, 2000.
"What is an Oil Shock?,"
NBER Working Papers
7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004.
"Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
- Sims, Christopher A., 1992.
"Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1992. "Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: The Effects of Monetary Policy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1011, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997.
"Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
- Stephen P.A. Brown & Mine K. Yücel, 1999. "Oil prices and U.S. aggregate economic activity: a question of neutrality," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 16-23.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997.
"Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
- Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Waston, Mark, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Working Papers 97-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
- Nathan S. Balke & Stephen P.A. Brown & Mine K. Yucel, 2002.
"Oil Price Shocks and the U.S. Economy: Where Does the Asymmetry Originate?,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 27-52.
- Balke, Nathan S. & Brown, Stephen P. A. & Yücel, Mine, 1999. "Oil price shocks and the U.S. economy: where does the asymmetry originate?," Working Papers 9911, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Hamilton, James D & Herrera, Ana Maria, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 265-86, April.
- Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship: Reply," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 221-222, October.
- Bernanke, Ben S & Gertler, Mark & Watson, Mark W, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Reply," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 287-91, April.
- Peter Ferderer, J., 1996. "Oil price volatility and the macroeconomy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-26.
- Hui Guo & Kevin L. Kliesen, 2005. "Oil price volatility and U.S. macroeconomic activity," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 669-84.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-10-00128. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (John P. Conley)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.