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Conditional Correlations and Volatility Links Among Gold, Oil and Istanbul Stock Exchange Sector Returns

Author

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  • Hatice Gaye GENCER

    (Department of Business Administration and Economics, Yeditepe University, Istanbul, Turkey.)

  • Erdem KILIC

    (Department of Business Administration and Economics, Yeditepe University, Istanbul, Turkey.)

Abstract

The aim of this research is to expand the literature of market return volatility for the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) sector indices by analyzing the conjoint impact of oil and gold returns and their volatilities. We use both aggregated and disaggregated data in our study which differentiates it from the others in scope. The analysis is conducted by a multivariate CCC M-GARCH model in order to get some multidimensional interactions in the return and volatility processes of the selected variables. We consider 28 different portfolio investments consisting equal investments in oil, gold and each sector index by turn. We observe that oil GARCH effects are significant and close to unity in each model, positioning oil prices as a major source of portfolio volatility. Gold GARCH effects follow oil GARCH parameters in magnitude, implying that gold prices also have significant effects on portfolio volatility. We report negative correlation coefficients between gold and three sector indices, namely, holding, main metals and commercial sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Hatice Gaye GENCER & Erdem KILIC, 2014. "Conditional Correlations and Volatility Links Among Gold, Oil and Istanbul Stock Exchange Sector Returns," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(1), pages 170-182.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2014-01-16
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Modeling; Risk Analysis and Management; M-GARCH; Stock Markets; Sector Returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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